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Information risk is a term I learned from FT71 and have heard others use. Not sure if it is industry-wide though. It is when you enter without having all the "information" as to the market's intention. One example is entering on a pull back before the pull back has shown itself to be finished. The risk is that price keeps retracing and runs you over. If price turns and resumes, you often have a better price and more potential in the trade.
Price risk is when you wait for the market to stop, turn and resume in the original direction. You enter at a worse price but you have more information as to the market's supposed intention.
That's a brave and wise decision!
After spending such amount of effort in a method and not getting better, you're at the limits of its potential. A wise decision to try major changes.
My suggestion is to experiment with looking at context, creating a thesis and determining the trade locations. Once you've done that, you are in execution mode and will be taking trades in line with your bias. Repeat this every day and evaluate it after a month.
This is what I've been trying to do last 4-5 months. I have a hard time though sticking with trade locations, if price action looks adverse, always thinking thesis might be wrong (as it is about 1/2 the time). I think that's what Inletcap does though, with expert execution.
It is a little unnerving watching price come at you, especially if it is doing so at speed. It's probably worth staying on the the sidelines just a moment or two to see if it shows any signs of stopping. I've avoided a few trains this way, but if the level is good, price will often react quickly which means getting a slightly worse price.
I'll do that. I know you don't trade oil but if you see something in my context, thesis or trade location that doesn't seem right please let me know. Thanks!
Took one trade off the opening range high and a resistance area. Currently I see no clear future trade locations.
Bias is neutral because we are at a previous RTH low from 6/16 so we could get a bounce to test many of the overnight sell off levels. To the upside is a gap to 47.36.
On the other hand the longer term trend is down. At around 46.40 is another major swing from the overnight on 6/16.
possible scenarios:
Right now wait for more clear directional move and developing order flow
Price broke up from the heavily traded area from 46.32 to 46.41 to recharge for another move down. There is thickness on the bid today so I'm anticipating more down moves until these orders get absorbed and disappear. Trading sim right now testing some theories.
Interesting heavily traded areas on the way down on either absorption or profit taking or both.
The market was stuck in an area that could have gone either way for much of the morning. With this uncertainty looming, I switched to sim to test some ideas around entering on pullbacks and made a little over $200 in sim. Most of the trades were taken long at discount and short at premium. I can see how this might be the right way to go. Much more to learn though.
