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Tap In's Corner

  #601 (permalink)
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5/6/16 blueprint

Tricky situation to start the week. Big impulse move overnight. I expect more movement to the upside. However, there is a lot of space to the downside that could be tested before that happens. The trick will be to determine when the retracement is over and the resumption has begun. There are some high volume traded prices at 49.56 and 49.45. These could be stopping points.

To the upside we have retraced the down move from 5/31 so there is a chance the up move is over for a while.

I'll need to use the opening range for structure.

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Mid day update: Price could not break through the top congestion and has now test the early morning break out. Could be a bounce here. Otherwise there are a couple more targets below.

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Update, end of day: the bounce happened, as anticipated

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Last edited by Tap In; June 6th, 2016 at 07:56 PM. Reason: update
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  #602 (permalink)
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5/6/16 trade 1

I benefited from a mistake this morning on my only trade so far. Accidentally entered with three contracts (left over setting from replay on the weekend), and was able to shed two at +5t. The third was BE. Total +10t.

The entry was a BO of a short pause after a larger impulse move. @KahunaDog would probably say it was a late entry, which I would not disagree with. However, I could not find a way to enter with confidence down around the 49.50 area, and I did not want to take a break out trade until price cleared some heavily traded areas below the OR top.

It was the type of trade that could have run for a while coming out of the large consolidation area, but didn't.

Comments welcome

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  #603 (permalink)
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With respect, why do you think bo style trading is a good one in oil?

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  #604 (permalink)
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KahunaDog View Post
With respect, why do you think bo style trading is a good one in oil?

Like anything in trading there is a time for all styles. The conditions for break out trading oil are not right all the time, but when there is energy in the market, with liquidity waiting at distant levels, it will often move away from entry rapidly with momentum carrying price great distances. Natural gas and gold are like that as well. Instruments like ES tend to do a lot of back filling making break out trading more difficult. I try not to just take any ol' breakout, but choose the conditions where I think there is potential for an explosive move (could do better admittedly).

That said, I am working on ways to enter earlier within my risk tolerance. I can envision a day where I scale in on a pull back then add on the breakout.

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  #605 (permalink)
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6/7/16 blueprint

Price broke 16 ticks above the high for the year in the early morning. We could have a trend day up if it holds above 50.21. It may need some more fuel so it would not surprise to have it retrace to the 50.00 area and retest the early move up.

To the downside I need to be ready for a sell off from this top because there are lots of areas below that have not been touched.

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Update: First trade was on and stopped at BE. It made it to 13 ticks and the top before reversing. Was playing for an opening range move out the top but didn't materialize.

Update Mid day: the 50.00 area held for a couple of bounces. Price currently above the main resistance area of yesterday, now support. 2 trades for +5t total. Both reach 1R, so that's positive. Recent lackluster days making trading tough.

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Update, end of day. Price did end up breaking up near the close.

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Last edited by Tap In; June 7th, 2016 at 11:24 PM.
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  #606 (permalink)
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6/8/16 blueprint

Once again the best move so far happened in the overnight. Time will tell if price will continue its upward drive.

If it does it could happen from here or at any number of points of heavily traded prices that will act as support. The tricky part on days like today is figuring out when the retracements are over. This is where someone with a large account and scaling in can be an advantage, but that is not me. So, I will have to wait for signs to determine when the next move is taking place. These signs include: accumulation around a specific price, higher lows, impulse moves in direction of trend, some sort of CD event.

To the downside I will have to see some pretty good evidence that the market is attacking lower prices to take a short.

Oil inventory day could shake things up a bit as well.

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  #607 (permalink)
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good work keep at it

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Last edited by KahunaDog; June 9th, 2016 at 02:10 AM.
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  #608 (permalink)
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6/8/16 Wednesday

6/8/16 Wednesday
Combine Trades: 5
Day’s P/L: $142

3 for 5 in getting to 1R but not much further. CL continues to range each day making catching runners difficult. Since I am tending to enter at the edges I won’t get much more than 1R until price decides to move. The overnight action has been strong with consolidation later. Very tricky trading lately.

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  #609 (permalink)
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KahunaDog View Post
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couple things from my perspective
he is right, but you are also right.
One has to know when to kill a trade. A 3R loss is bad.

You may get many +3, +6, 10x or so trades, then a runner. As another journal in here mentioned, you may get cL days 2-4x a month that will make the bulk, while the rest imo is just paying the lights.
Also imo for you to be able to trade cL like this you have to have a very good understanding of a number of things that evolve and how the market works, instituions work and how price works. It's very difficult and you have to be able to kill a trade without blinking and know it was the right decision, even if it goes 50ticks.

From what I read of your journal, you imo need more context in interpreting where price is at and where it can go. I think it would help if instead of looking for breakouts, look for where it consolidates. The opposite of what you are currently doing, this will lead to the ability to anticipate and be ready for the breakout as you are already entered from the consolidation to your bias.
You also noted more of your trades occur at 8pst, why not trade oil in europe or begin right before the open. That imo is more appropriate for an oil break out trader.These are my opinions. They are a suggestion and in no way malicious. It's just I see you trying hard.

You are correct, Ideally I would like to enter positions well before breakouts, and am working on ways to find those areas. Took one today on a retrace to consolidation.

I would be interested in hearing more of your thoughts on market direction and institutional influence, via PM if that is more suitable.

I appreciate your interest in my progress.

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  #610 (permalink)
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6/9/16 blueprint


I start the day with a short bias. Once again price made a 100 tick move overnight. Time will tell if this sell off will continue during RTH or we consolidate in a range like previous days. For now I'll be looking to find an entry that plays a continuation down. There is a lot of room to the down side that has not been tested so a trend day is possible.

That said I need to be nimble and ready for clues in both directions because the overnight move needs some testing too.

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Update, end of day: No combine trades today but gaining confidence in my blueprint reads. Uncanny how price returns to breakout areas and to areas of high volume trade. Today after bounce off the first support area identified the market returned to the first resistance area identified, with a pause at a high volume area that developed during market hours.

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Last edited by Tap In; June 9th, 2016 at 08:04 PM.
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