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Tap In's Corner
Started:November 23rd, 2014 (09:08 PM) by Tap In Views / Replies:34,169 / 839
Last Reply:October 13th, 2016 (09:57 AM) Attachments:1,597

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Tap In's Corner

Old December 9th, 2014, 11:17 AM   #51 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Gold absorbing big orders on the offer today

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Old December 9th, 2014, 07:59 PM   #52 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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12/9/14: trades taken 1, +30t
Should have: 2, potential +45t

-Another huge potential day

-NQ and GC had open field look and they didn’t disappoint

-Passed on several trades due to too much risk as it relates to nearest structure. However, in most cases even a 15 tick stop was safe. Might be worth taking some chances on these when the markets are really moving

-Need to think more on the definition of “should have” trades in order to make the Courage Ratio more meaningful. Right now it is the trades that really compel me in my gut to take them. The ones that really get me thinking, even if they don’t work. Most times they do work. Feel like I need a better definition.

Tomorrow: Wait for price to break open before considering. No need to be first in. Loosen the screws. Oil inventory

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Tap In's Corner-2014-12-09_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-09_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-09_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-09_nq_summary.png  
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Old December 10th, 2014, 10:24 AM   #53 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 909 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,060 given, 1,845 received
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Landscape as I open platform

-NQ stuck in choppy range
-NG also in range but not as choppy
-GC 130 tick range, could be some possibilities trading between the markers. Watch for break either way
-CL only lad trending, but choppy down and currently at support. Watch for possible break back up.

Overall, nothing that gets me real excited right now. Wait for something to move

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Old December 10th, 2014, 04:56 PM   #54 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 909 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,060 given, 1,845 received
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0 trades
Should-have: 2, potential +30
Many more possibilities

Great abundance today, especially oil in morning, NQ in afternoon.

Cycle: abundance happens, courage doesn't, opportunity lost, pressure builds. Then abundance wanes, courage waxes, pressure released by trading a lot, losses happen. Then abundance waxes, courage wanes due to previous losses, opportunities lost... cycle repeats.

The sine wave of abundance and the sine wave of courage are out of cycle by a few days.

Tomorrow's focus: interrupt the cycle, whatever the market offers. Measure of success will be the extent to which I cycle with the market. If great abundance, success will be measured by the opportunities I take advantage of or mark definitively. If the market is quiet, the measure of success will be my discipline in staying out.

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2014-12-10_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-10_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-10_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-10_nq_summary.png  
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Old December 11th, 2014, 05:27 PM   #55 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 

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Tomorrow's focus: interrupt the cycle, whatever the market offers. Measure of success will be the extent to which I cycle with the market. If great abundance, success will be measured by the opportunities I take advantage of or mark definitively. If the market is quiet, the measure of success will be my discipline in staying out.

trades: 2, 2 wins, +11t
should have: 6, potential +60
Courage ratio: 2/8 = 25%

-Missed trade out of gate on NQ was annoying.
-Had a great set up on NG after inventory. Passed
-still very hesitant of entering areas I think are really good.
-plenty of opportunities today that I didn't capitalize on.
-2 trades that I got about as much out of as could be expected since they only went +16 and +11 in my favor.

Grade for the day on goal to cycle with market: D
the opps on NQ were very obvious. The textbook set up on NG was a bungle. Too much movement in several instruments, not enough response on my part.

Tomorrow: Same focus, improve grade. Interrupt the cycle, whatever the market offers. Measure of success will be the extent to which I cycle with the market. If great abundance, success will be measured by the opportunities I take advantage of or mark definitively. If the market is quiet, the measure of success will be my discipline in staying out.

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Tap In's Corner-2014-12-11_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-11_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-11_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-11_nq_summary.png  
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Old December 13th, 2014, 02:05 PM   #56 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 909 since Feb 2013
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Friday 12/12/14
0 trades
Should have taken: 9, potential +100t
Courage Ratio: 0%

-regarding goal of cycling with the market, zero trades in some very good moves scores F grade.

-zero trades when markets became choppy scores A grade.

-overall, since my default behavior is to not trade it is not surprising that I would take no trades during choppy times. So more weight goes to my failure to take good looking trades. Overall grade for the day D

-Felt hesitation to trade all day. This feeling was mainly due to my desire to end the week with gains. This was purely a psychological calculation as I fully realize that each trade opp, each day should be acted upon without regard to what happened in the past. This is the psychological ideal.

However, I have also come to realize the power that success and failure have on my emotional state. Success breeds success, so to end the week green, even in sim, meant something. Its not unlike a struggling football team just wanting to get a few first downs to create some momentum. I just want a few first downs.

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2014-12-12_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-12_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-12_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-12_nq_summary.png  
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Old December 13th, 2014, 06:35 PM   #57 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 909 since Feb 2013
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Week of 12/8/14 to 12/12/14 recap

Weekly recap:
All single lot trades except NQ (2 lots)
Trades taken: 5, 4 wins, 1 loss, +48t
Trades should have taken: 19, potential +235t
Courage Ratio: 4/23= 17%

Noteworthy observations for the week:

-Definitely rubber banded from Friday’s (12/5) lack of success. Got very picky, not wanting to experience pain of a loss.

-Found umpteen reasons not to enter trades. Most turned out invalid. It may come down to just giving them all a shot in spite of the reasons, with the expectation that winners will overcome losers.

-Many good trades passed because of risk being “too large”. Meaning, the closest “structure” is farther away than 15 ticks. I think too much is made of this idea of putting the stop behind “structure”. In highly volatile directional markets I need to ignore this idea. If I pick the entry correctly 15 ticks is plenty of room for noise, even if structure is 25 ticks away.

-I still remain optimistic and energize about what I am seeing in my analysis of the markets. So much opportunity. No doubt the increased volatility of oil and NQ are creating lots of opportunity that is easy to spot. At the very least I know that when the market trends I can make good trades. This is not an insignificant point. If I never get any better than I am today as a trader, I can at least wait patiently for clear moves to make some money.

-Old tendencies like trading against trend, getting involved in choppy areas, trying to be first on board, succumbing to the pressure of putting on trades late to make up for losses or get a score for the day, and other bad habits seem to be fading away. In short, my discipline is pretty solid. In part this is due to knowing that there is so much abundance without trying to be a hero. Just wait for it to show itself. Trading multiple varied markets helps in this regard.

-The main issue continues to be hesitation and reluctance to take the trade in the face of good opportunity. The pain and fear of loss is the main driver. Too much scar tissue of loss in the past, repeatedly being trapped, and the fodder of smart money.

I will need to get past this to grow, hence the emphasis on tools to help overcome the hesitation: Courage Ratio, Grade on how well I cycle with the market, etc. Among my “should have taken” trades are losers. In order to get the +235 potential ticks listed above, I am going to have to experience some losers, and my win rate will not be 80%. If I got to 50%, with winners twice as large as losers I would be over the moon. That would be quality trading.

In the end it may just come down to sheer willpower. Hold the nose, and pull the trigger, over and over until I either prove my read of the market or not. As gains mount, fear of loss will wane, and the inevitable losses will become less psychologically traumatic.

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Old December 13th, 2014, 07:15 PM   #58 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 909 since Feb 2013
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Oil dropping

A quick glance at a chart shows a real possibility that oil could challenge the 2009 lows of $33, or even lower as some assert

If it does this and then bases up for an extended period of time, it could become a less attractive instrument to trade, as the ATR will likely squeeze as a percentage of price.

This is one reason I have added other instruments to my repertoire. The journey could be quite volatile and take a while, if ever, so I'm not giving up on oil just yet.

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Old December 14th, 2014, 04:37 PM   #59 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 909 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,060 given, 1,845 received
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3 step entry process: step 3

...Continuing on a series of posts detailing my 3 step trade execution process.

Step 3) The Entry

Once I have a good feeling for potential direction, and have established a trend line that could represent a point-of-no-return once breached, it is time to watch price action around this trend line.

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The first rule is to wait for a break of the line and a close of the bar. Waiting for the close of the bar is prudent in most cases. Many fake outs have been avoided with this rule. Further, I will often count to 5 or 10 once the bar has closed to see if the timing of the close is just coincidental.

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Then I begin to read the behavior of the price action and the order flow.

-Is price holding at the close?

-Is it retracing? If so, does the retracement have legs? Is it stalling and attempting to come back?

-Is there activity in the market? If so, in what direction, for me or against me?

This is the point of judgement where the trader has to decide, based on hours of watching price action, if the move is real or a trap. This is the area where performance can be improved through deliberate practice with market replay and more time in the saddle.

If I am satisfied with the price action I take the trade and manage it, watching the same things and asking the same questions as before entry.

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I am continually updating my trend lines. New patterns appear constantly and as the day progresses the true nature of the structure comes in to focus. Below is a series of pictures showing the evolution of trigger lines in a particular set up.

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Last edited by Tap In; December 14th, 2014 at 05:05 PM.
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Old December 14th, 2014, 04:50 PM   #60 (permalink)
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Tap In View Post
...Continuing on a series of posts detailing my 3 step trade execution process.

Step 3) The Entry
....

Nice post. Your first image isn't showing -- this is a known futures.io (formerly BMT) issue, where an image sometimes looks OK to the person who uploaded it, but not to others. Usually when a lot of images got uploaded.

Could you just upload the first one again? Thanks.

Bob.

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