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Tap In's Corner
Started:November 23rd, 2014 (09:08 PM) by Tap In Views / Replies:34,270 / 839
Last Reply:October 13th, 2016 (09:57 AM) Attachments:1,597

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Tap In's Corner

Old May 29th, 2016, 12:45 AM   #581 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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If you want me to cease and desist I will. My intent is not harassment.

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Old May 29th, 2016, 02:46 PM   #582 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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KahunaDog View Post
Do you have any screen shots of the exact or near moment you are entering? Deltas dom footprint other order flow

re - trend vs counter trend
How often does the market trend? When cL does what are the size of the trends? In what time frame?

With the risk tolerance and targets I am shooting for (10 ticks minimum) CL could change trends several times a day, varying from 50 to 200 ticks depending on the players involved. That is why I like it. Here is an example of a successful breakout trade. The DOM for this trade is not available but you would have seen large orders on the offer signaling a desire to move the market higher:

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Footprint at breakout:

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KahunaDog View Post
If you want me to cease and desist I will. My intent is not harassment.

You are being respectful. It is not harassment. Do you use some of the same tools?: Footprint, DOM, Volume Profile. Do you tend to trade in the direction of the trend? Fade S/R? What have you found that is effective?

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Old May 29th, 2016, 04:44 PM   #583 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Ygpm

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Old May 31st, 2016, 10:01 AM   #584 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
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5/31/16 blueprint

On the macro, resistance starts at the 49.80 level to the upside and support starts at 49.05 to the downside.

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Price currently resides a ways from each of those levels with little apparent trending action. Through the open I will be looking for clues as to which of the levels the market will try to attack first. I'd like to see some definitive movement off of 49.44 or 49.60, before taking a position. Otherwise it is just guessing.

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Update, end of day: Price did indeed hit the upper resistance area, overshot it a bit, then reversed to the lower support area. No trades today unfortunately. Recognized some good opportunities but lacked faith.

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Last edited by Tap In; May 31st, 2016 at 09:59 PM. Reason: update
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Old June 2nd, 2016, 09:52 AM   #585 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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6/2/16 blueprint

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
There is a lot more volatility in the market the past couple days, with areas to the upside and downside that need to be tested. Stick with the trend

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Update, pre inventory: Price went deeper into yesterday's rally.

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There are major areas to be tested to the upside and downside. The only question is which will it test first. It is currently basing up in anticipation of the news. A break either way could start a substantial move.

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Added more possible level to the downside...

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Last edited by Tap In; June 2nd, 2016 at 11:56 AM.
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Old June 5th, 2016, 03:02 PM   #586 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
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Monthly Recap May 2016

Monthly Recap May 2016
Live Trades: 0, live account still at $2840.17

Combine trades: 78
Month’s TST Combine P/L: $163

I am continuing on my quest to find something, anything that will give me an edge. For May, 54% of trades were successful (price reached at least 1R). The stats are as follows:

Total TST Combine trades: 78
Price reached 1R: 42 (54%)
Price reached 2R while moving to BE after +1R: 15 (19%)
Price reached 2R with initial stop not moved: 22 (28%)
Average reasonable movement of price in my favor: 13.2 ticks
Average reasonable movement of price against: 13.4 ticks

I am pretty much a coin flip trader, and somewhat at a loss of what to do about it. I have stuck to the same basic context charts for a long time now, adding and subtracting this or that to help with tactics.

But herein lies a dilemma. On the one hand it is tempting to chase methods from other traders who seem to be doing so well. But, after further exploration of their methods, it always comes back to the same problem: when to stay out and when to get in. Every method can be traded well or poorly depending on how the trader interprets market context on their particular time frame.

On the other hand, the conventional wisdom says to stay consistent with a method in order to get to know it better. But what is that definition of insanity…?

I began exploring footprint at the start of the year. I really like some of the visibility it offers, but have yet to translate it into consistent results. I have also been doing a pre-market blueprint for the past couple weeks. I am generally correctly seeing the possibilities of where price may go during the day, but exploiting it with my risk tolerance is a different story. I have been using a 2400 tick chart for the macro view and an 800 tick chart for immediate context. These may be too large to use in conjunction with a 10 tick average stop. Starting Monday I will add a smaller chart, perhaps a 267 tick chart for the immediate context while using the 800 tick chart for the macro. We’ll see if that helps.

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2016-06-05_1007_trade_stats.png   Tap In's Corner-2016-06-05_1055_combine.png  
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Old June 5th, 2016, 05:12 PM   #587 (permalink)
grappling dummy
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Good stats


Last edited by KahunaDog; June 5th, 2016 at 11:45 PM.
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Old June 5th, 2016, 05:34 PM   #588 (permalink)
grappling dummy
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Look at your success rates on the breakout trades. You should check your stats on if you dropped the bo strategy.


Last edited by KahunaDog; June 5th, 2016 at 11:44 PM.
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Old June 5th, 2016, 05:43 PM   #589 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Tap In View Post
I am pretty much a coin flip trader, and somewhat at a loss of what to do about it. I have stuck to the same basic context charts for a long time now, adding and subtracting this or that to help with tactics.

But herein lies a dilemma. On the one hand it is tempting to chase methods from other traders who seem to be doing so well. But, after further exploration of their methods, it always comes back to the same problem: when to stay out and when to get in. Every method can be traded well or poorly depending on how the trader interprets market context on their particular time frame.

On the other hand, the conventional wisdom says to stay consistent with a method in order to get to know it better. But what is that definition of insanity…?

I feel your pain. Regarding the dilemma above I personally look at it this way: I look to other traders for inspiration regarding things such as setting a bias, daily prep, possible trading frameworks, discipline.

I do not look to other traders for things such as: specific trading methodology, instrument, techniques, setting stop losses, risk/rewards ratios.

The reason is, I do believe that doing certain things over and over will provide experience and skill. As you say there's no use in jumping from one thing to the other when it does not seem to work.

So I believe that there is a certain 'mix' of things that I can benefit from by looking at others and things that I have to stick to do myself. I do not presume to have the right mix. There may be things that I have yet to consider that go in one list or the other. Or I may have some of them in the wrong list. But I do believe in the balance to be found, which feels to me almost like working on the ingredients of a recipe.

Does it make sense?

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Old June 5th, 2016, 06:21 PM   #590 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
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Tap In View Post
I am pretty much a coin flip trader, and somewhat at a loss of what to do about it. I have stuck to the same basic context charts for a long time now, adding and subtracting this or that to help with tactics.

But herein lies a dilemma. On the one hand it is tempting to chase methods from other traders who seem to be doing so well. But, after further exploration of their methods, it always comes back to the same problem: when to stay out and when to get in. Every method can be traded well or poorly depending on how the trader interprets market context on their particular time frame.

On the other hand, the conventional wisdom says to stay consistent with a method in order to get to know it better. But what is that definition of insanity…?

I began exploring footprint at the start of the year. I really like some of the visibility it offers, but have yet to translate it into consistent results. I have also been doing a pre-market blueprint for the past couple weeks. I am generally correctly seeing the possibilities of where price may go during the day, but exploiting it with my risk tolerance is a different story. I have been using a 2400 tick chart for the macro view and an 800 tick chart for immediate context. These may be too large to use in conjunction with a 10 tick average stop. Starting Monday I will add a smaller chart, perhaps a 267 tick chart for the immediate context while using the 800 tick chart for the macro. We’ll see if that helps.

My experience is that it is very hard to make a losing method profitable by making some changes here and there. You need a "game changer". Something that is slightly profitable for you in the beginning already, and with a lot of potential for making it better by tweaking it.

You can ask yourself the following questions:
- how many months are you trading this method? Look at the basics of your method only
- how much have your results improved?
- how realistic is it that you will get consistently profitable with your current method?

I don't know your answer on these questions, but you might consider experimenting with other methods.
Game changers. If trading is not your source of income, you have enough time and nothing to lose.

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