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Tap In's Corner

  #561 (permalink)
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Scenarios for today

To the long side: We are at levels not seen since December, but at a low volume node area on the daily chart. That was a long time ago. I am not sure how this will effect today's trading. So far we are up until further notice.

To the down side: The overnight breakout may get tested so be ready play it to the 46.40 area if price decides to go after it.

I will be looking for high volume nodes on Footprint to fade (information risk), and breakouts through those nodes for continuations (price risk).

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Last edited by Tap In; May 16th, 2016 at 10:04 AM.
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  #562 (permalink)
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Scenarios for today...

Enjoying your pre-market write-ups. They're helpful and thoughtful.

Bob.

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  #563 (permalink)
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5/16/16 Monday
Combine Trades: 5
Day’s P/L: -$18

After doing some work over the weekend I decided to trade on information risk today entering on pull backs at previous areas of large trading on footprint. Of the 5 trades, 3 went my way. All three went beyond +2R, though I would have had to hold two of them through larger pull backs. Results and Total Reasonable Movement of each trade on the chart attached.

I generally called the morning correctly in my blueprint, with price bouncing off the OR four times. I got that right, but unfortunately could not take advantage.

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Tap In's Corner-2016-05-16_1731_trades.png   Tap In's Corner-2016-05-16_1740_combine.png  
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  #564 (permalink)
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5/17/16 Blueprint

It is difficult to say as of this writing which direction is more likely.

To the upside: there has been a big overnight move down after an up move. This down move could be retraced partially or fully. However, I would not expect price to go out the top today.

To the downside: There are many untested areas below all the way down to the 42 area. But first it needs to get through a bunch of heavy trading in the 55 tick range of yesterday from 47.30 to 47.85. If it does, I suspect it to be a trend day down.

For now I will be looking for clarity after the open for clear direction or areas of heavy trading on footprint to fade.

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End of day chart comparison: As I suspected price didn't go out the top until after the close, but it did retrace and test all of the down move from overnight.

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Last edited by Tap In; May 17th, 2016 at 09:22 PM.
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5/16/16 Monday recap

5/16/16 Monday
Combine Trades: 3
Day’s P/L: $148

Another lackluster day on oil. Three trades, all three made it to at least 1R. I am continuing to identify high volume price levels on Footprint and observe how price reacts to those levels throughout the day.

Two ways to play these levels are:
1) Wait for price to return and enter on a limit order with the stop a distance that allows for some wiggle room. Trades 1 was executed this way.
2) Enter when price develops a level then moves away from it. Trades 2 and 3 were executed this way

Total Reasonable Movement of the trades:
Trade 1 TRM: +17, -1
Trade2 TRM: +37, -2
Trade 3 TRM: +10, -4

These are results I can work with. Bummer about trade 2. It had such a hard time moving away from entry that I thought it was a trap forming.

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5/19/16 blueprint

Big sell off near the end of the session yesterday and over night. There are many areas below that have gone untested over the past week so a continued down move would not be unexpected.

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On the more immediate time frame, some of the overnight sell-off areas could be tested. The action today may be difficult to read because price could stop at any one of these areas. Though price is in a down trend now, I do not have a bias because it could test either way. I will rely on volume clusters and the opening range to frame the market to make trading decisions in either direction.

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5/20/16 blueprint

On the macro view, oil has been leaving a series of breakouts behind as it continues its rally up from the bottom. These will be tested eventually.

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In the meantime we are between two areas: 49.00 to the upside and about 47.75 to the downside. The trend is currently down, probably in an attempt to take back yesterdays rally. If it holds above 49.00 we'll probably go out the top.

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As is usual with oil, my bias needs to be somewhat flexible because it can change on a dime. For now I am biased short until evidence suggests they are trying for the 49.00 area and beyond.

Edit 9:18- Interesting how price has reacted to my areas. In spite of this I continue to have difficulty monetizing my reads

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Last edited by Tap In; May 20th, 2016 at 12:20 PM. Reason: Update
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5/23/16 blueprint

Price continues is sell off from Friday. 47.26 is a major low.

To the down side: Below that major low the next area to test is the 46.00 area. Price may need a bounce up to the 47.80 or even 48.00 area before going down much further.

To the upside: we could see a nice bounce off the major low to test the areas just described. Above 49.56 and the rally continues.
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End of day. Price ended up testing the upper area before reversing:

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Last edited by Tap In; May 23rd, 2016 at 09:57 PM. Reason: End of day update
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5/23/16 Monday
Combine Trades: 5
Day’s P/L: -$58

Still hanging on, down $750. Taking trades, going nowhere. 29th trading day for this combine, 133 trades. Not sure if this is a good thing or not.

Traded horribly again today. Five trades, only one made it to 1R. No potential whatsoever. If not for a quick finger on the rip cord I'd have gotten killed the past couple days. Struggling to catch trends early enough to get the good moves. Late to the party a lot.

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5/24/16 blueprint


Bias is long for now based on yesterday's higher lows and the overnight action working up. Most areas up to the top at 49.56 have been previously tested so there may not be a lot stopping it to the upside. Price is currently in an area that could possibly reverse, but much beyond 48.75 and I think we will test the top.

To the downside, below 47.64 and we may try to test the many areas lower that have not been seen since their break outs.

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Update, mid day: Initial long bias scenario was correct. Currently near a potential resumption to the upside. At breakout area, R1, Opening range. Below 48.31 and we'll probably head for the 48.03 area.

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Update, end of day: surprisingly accurate

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Last edited by Tap In; May 25th, 2016 at 12:13 AM.
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