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Woke to a market that is very extended in its run. Currently at 45.90 area. There was a lot of trade in the 46.00 area on Monday so it feels like it needs some refueling to get through that area (retracement). There are several un-reconciled areas below that need to be tested at some point, either today or in the future. These areas extend all the way down to the 43.60 area.
Obviously the trend is up, but I do not feel good about jumping in long until we get some sort of deeper pull back or more extended basing action.
I will play the short side when it looks like the market wants to go test those areas below that were mentioned. Truthfully I do not care for these types of mornings. Need more clarity.
Price is now at a critical juncture. Annotated on the charts are the scenarios I am looking for. As always, I will be looking for order flow to confirm.
Read the market pretty well today. I am getting a better feel for where it wants to go based on previous break out areas. I think the pre market blueprint is useful, as well as doing updates during the day. It keeps things freshly focused. I’m also noticing some behaviors on footprint that seem to repeat, but I still do not have full faith in them.
Didn’t trade today until 8:00. I get in this mode where I watch a bunch of opportunities go by, get frustrated, then finally decide I’ve had enough and pull the trigger. Thankfully, I usually have the patience to wait for valid set ups, so it’s not like they are stupid trades. Just a little too little too late.
Two of the trades were in the right direction, one in the wrong direction. Yesterday two of three trades were in the wrong direction, with one in the right direction. I wish I could be more consistent in this area.
We are still in a down trend. However, the market has tested some key breakout levels down here in the mid 43's so it would not surprise me to see a bounce soon to go get some unresolved areas above.
There are also some unresolved areas way below around 42.00 but I think the market needs to refuel to go get them.
For now I will wait for clear directional movement, then look for orderflow for entry.
Already took one trade for BE. The market action showed strong flow to the downside, then suddenly stopped and reversed. Good thing I tightened quickly or it would have been a loss.
No large orders on the books so far. Market makers are moving this thing around. Hard to get a feel for where it wants to go.
Update 7:05: large orders appearing on the books around 44.70. Probably many more above this, so I expect the market to continue to work its way up as it reconciles some of the untested areas.
Update 8:48: Looks like they are trying to take back most of yesterday. Still some untested areas above. Thee are still large offers present
Making small gains, but I sure would like to have a big up day to offset those big down days. I realize this won’t happened until I am willing to trade more often.
Three trades Friday, two in the right direction and one in the wrong direction.
I placed dots where I thought good trades would happen. All in all, if each one were taken and held for either +10t or -10t the results would be +80t for the day. However, there would have been some challenges to my psyche. Like, two quick losses to begin the day and the first 6 trades resulting in 0t, etc. Hopefully if results are typical like this each day I will begin to trust my judgement and the trading will open up.
The periodic blueprint updates are working nicely. In general, I am anticipating the markets moves pretty well. Here is what I posted to start the day:
"We are still in a down trend. However, the market has tested some key breakout levels down here in the mid 43's so it would not surprise me to see a bounce soon to go get some unresolved areas above."
The blueprint to start the day:
The results at the end of the day:
Not bad. I just need to keep doing what I am doing and try to improve.
