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Started:November 23rd, 2014 (09:08 PM) by Tap In Views / Replies:34,383 / 839
Last Reply:October 13th, 2016 (09:57 AM) Attachments:1,597

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Tap In's Corner

Old April 28th, 2016, 01:31 AM   #501 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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4/27/16 Wednesday

4/27/16 Wednesday
Combine Trades: 8
Dayís P/L: $220

Happy that I finished green today but sure made it hard on myself by taking so many trades against the trend. Well, in hindsight they were against the trend. In real time I was expecting another move to the downside, as long as price stayed under the opening range. That move never came. At some point I should have flipped my bias and looked for longs. Would have been much easier.

I do have a tendency to think a reversal is just around the corner, and thus miss some easy trades with trend. For some reason I am more comfortable trying to catch the big reversal rather than playing what is in front of me. Really need to work on that.

Because I was generally against trend today the Total Reasonable Movement of the trades were not very good. Only a little luck and getting out quick when things didnít feel right saved me.

Trade 1 TRM: +13, -8
Trade 2 TRM: +5, -13
Trade 3 TRM: +1, -11
Trade 4 TRM: +12, -6
Trade 5 TRM: +8, -52
Trade 6 TRM: +10, -2
Trade 7 TRM: +6, -14
Trade 8 TRM: +45, 0

4 out of 8 got to +1R
Only 1 of 8 ran any distance

Not much potential in these trades. Iíve got to learn how to go with trend!

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Old April 28th, 2016, 11:57 PM   #502 (permalink)
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Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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4/28/16 Thursday

4/28/16 Thursday
Combine Trades: 1
Dayís P/L: -$104

Nothing real exciting today, one loss. There was a quick sell off at a point I thought price could turn, but it was just a fake out.

Trade 1 TRM: 0, -12

I had a feeling price would move higher into the close after it cleared the OR and held. I need to learn how to take those trades when I'm feeling it, and hang back, give it some room, and wait for it to happen.

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Old April 30th, 2016, 01:54 AM   #503 (permalink)
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Tap In View Post
4/27/16 Wednesday
Combine Trades: 8
Day’s P/L: $220

Happy that I finished green today but sure made it hard on myself by taking so many trades against the trend. Well, in hindsight they were against the trend. In real time I was expecting another move to the downside, as long as price stayed under the opening range. That move never came. At some point I should have flipped my bias and looked for longs. Would have been much easier.

I do have a tendency to think a reversal is just around the corner, and thus miss some easy trades with trend. For some reason I am more comfortable trying to catch the big reversal rather than playing what is in front of me. Really need to work on that.

Because I was generally against trend today the Total Reasonable Movement of the trades were not very good. Only a little luck and getting out quick when things didn’t feel right saved me.

Trade 1 TRM: +13, -8
Trade 2 TRM: +5, -13
Trade 3 TRM: +1, -11
Trade 4 TRM: +12, -6
Trade 5 TRM: +8, -52
Trade 6 TRM: +10, -2
Trade 7 TRM: +6, -14
Trade 8 TRM: +45, 0

4 out of 8 got to +1R
Only 1 of 8 ran any distance

Not much potential in these trades. I’ve got to learn how to go with trend!

I feel your pain on the tendency to look for reversals and difficulty taking advantage of the trend. I noticed a couple things in your screen grab I thought I'd point out. Obviously, don't pay too much attention to my take here, since it's just one chart and I'm just a noob myself!

One thought would be that (nothing earth-shattering here, I'm sure you've been here, done that...), if you have any doubt about the level you are expecting that reversal to come, take a trend line or a channel and don't take the other direction until you get a break (green hexagons). I'm not saying trade the breaks, just that maybe they can be used to say "OK, now look for longs" or whatever. I know that often doesn't work, but from this particular case, in hindsight it may have helped.

The other thing I'll point out. I don't use Delta in my trading, though a few years ago I had it on my charts for a while. It does look like you had some tells here. Blue lines. Again, hindsight.

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Old April 30th, 2016, 09:26 AM   #504 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Boise, Idaho
 
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Reflect


Tap In View Post
I also notice that I have a tendency to get the courage to take my first trade as the day gets older, primarily after the morning rush, after around 8am pst, after the best moves, when things have settled down. Not sure what this is all about. I do not think it is because of being overwhelmed by the activity since I am easily able to keep up with what is going on.

Maybe is has to do with having more time to contemplate the trade, to really think about it, that I need that extra time to be certain. I do this when I make other big decision in my life, whether it's a big purchase, or a project I want to turn out well. I'll do research, weight the pros and cons, take my time, contemplate until I think I've got things figured out. My wife on the other hand is a shoot first ask questions later decision maker. She'd be a great scalper!

Or, maybe I am subconsciously saving my losses for later so I don't have to call it a day too early. There are few things worse than getting in the hole right out of the gate and either being forced to stop or risking the huge losing day.

Not sure what's causing it, but I will be monitoring this in the journaling.

I can relate Tap In. I go for good runs then get stubborn on a position or two that allows too much drawdown, even though I held to money management rules in most cases. So I agree that taking some time off or paper trading in real time. It does wonders for me as the "it's not real money" does not compute with me due to the time in the arena "in real life!". It also takes the pressure off so I can reevaluate my trading plan, money management, etc. Such as taking a look at volatility with more consideration for stop loss ranges with price action.

I am looking really hard at clearing the charts and going with the Al Brooks approach of reading price charts bar-by-bar. I find that this approach normally offers better entry and exit signals then the automated signals provided in software at least that I compared. Big Mike has a webinar scheduled this Monday, 5/3/16 with Al Brooks presenting - can't wait and surely don't won't to miss this opportunity personally!

I am looking forward to following your approach and learning with you along the way.

All The Best,
Pivot Point Guy.

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Old April 30th, 2016, 07:21 PM   #505 (permalink)
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4/29/16 Friday

Futures Edge on FIO
4/29/16 Friday
Combine Trades: 1
Dayís P/L: $96

One trade taken Friday. TRM +10, -2.

Spent most of the day observing many good trade opportunities come and go. I am really ready to make this thing happen. I just need some adjustments to my attitude about risk; when it is right to put it on, and when it is gambling.

Not every trade will work. Coming to grips with this and accepting the inevitable losses are part of it. Case in point were two trades, one on Thursday, one Friday. They had similar action, in similar circumstances. On Thursday I jumped in and took a quick 10 tick loss. On Friday, I stayed out because of what happened Thursday, and price traveled 80 ticks with almost no heat. A tale of two trade opportunities. One small loss, one large win.

Part of it, obviously, is loss avoidance, but perhaps a larger part is not wanting to feel stupid about making the same mistake twice. It has been drummed into us by society that we must learn from our mistakes. That to be a successful it is ok to make mistakes, in fact encouraged. Just don't repeat them. Certainly in most of life, and even in trading, there is much truth to this notion. However, it is important in trading to distinguish between a stupid mistake (like trading in chop) and a good trade idea that just didn't work out. No set up will work every time, so one failure does not invalidate an idea, nor does one win make an otherwise risky idea valid.

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Old April 30th, 2016, 07:46 PM   #506 (permalink)
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FlyingMonkey View Post
I feel your pain on the tendency to look for reversals and difficulty taking advantage of the trend. I noticed a couple things in your screen grab I thought I'd point out. Obviously, don't pay too much attention to my take here, since it's just one chart and I'm just a noob myself!

One thought would be that (nothing earth-shattering here, I'm sure you've been here, done that...), if you have any doubt about the level you are expecting that reversal to come, take a trend line or a channel and don't take the other direction until you get a break (green hexagons). I'm not saying trade the breaks, just that maybe they can be used to say "OK, now look for longs" or whatever. I know that often doesn't work, but from this particular case, in hindsight it may have helped.

The other thing I'll point out. I don't use Delta in my trading, though a few years ago I had it on my charts for a while. It does look like you had some tells here. Blue lines. Again, hindsight.

Excellent points, really appreciate them. Gosh darn I didn't even notice the CD divergences, even though I spend a lot of time looking at CD! I have been looking at other things with CD, so divergences have been off the mind. So many things to pay attention to!

Regarding trend lines, your point is well taken. Trend lines have been an integral aspect of my style for a long time, and I do pay attention to breaks. One thing about trend lines in a strong trend is that a break does not always signal a direction change, just a larger pull back in the same trend, and then the trend line gets re-drawn. I often struggle with when is the break a signal of trend change and when is it just a slightly larger pull back. I will still stay open minded to trading with the original trend on the first or second break of a TL. Trades 2, 3 and maybe even 4 were still valid shorts in my opinion (CD div notwithstanding), because they retraced to previous levels. But damn, by trade 5, 6, 7 I should have been looking long!

Thanks again for the ideas. Please feel free to share your observations any time.

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Old April 30th, 2016, 10:02 PM   #507 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 3,476 since Jan 2013
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Tap In View Post
Spent most of the day observing many good trade opportunities come and go. I am really ready to make this thing happen. I just need some adjustments to my attitude about risk; when it is right to put it on, and when it is gambling.

Not every trade will work. Coming to grips with this and accepting the inevitable losses are part of it.
...
Part of it, obviously, is loss avoidance, but perhaps a larger part is not wanting to feel stupid about making the same mistake twice.
...
However, it is important in trading to distinguish between a stupid mistake (like trading in chop) and a good trade idea that just didn't work out. No set up will work every time, so one failure does not invalidate an idea, nor does one win make an otherwise risky idea valid.

I think you've got something there.

It is obvious that you can look at a chart, and I mean in real time, not hindsight, and you can see where the opportunities lie. As evidence for this statement, I offer your entire journal to date.

So you do see them. I think that is one essential step.

Step 2 is what you are getting at here. When to take them, when not.

When you see things as they are, you pull the trigger at the correct time, by your method and your lights, and if you lose from doing it, you don't care. The next time, if you have the same situation, you do the same thing again. And you aren't concerned about the outcome, before you actually get it.

Anticipating how it will work out, on any basis other than, "This is a valid trade according to my understanding, so I'm taking it," is unlikely to get you anywhere. If your understanding is wrong, you can do what you probably have done all your life in your professional or business career, and find your error and fix it. Then, you just go back to doing what you know is the right thing, and at the right time. After some adjustments, it will start to pay off. I believe that the only problem you have is hesitation, and doubt.

Seriously.

(No, don't go crazy and just click that mouse on any impulse that enters your head. That's the opposite error, and not any better -- worse, in fact. But follow your considered judgment, correct your inevitable mistakes, get back up on that horse and do it again. Why should trading be any different from any of the other things you have learned how to do well???)

Good luck. It is not all that easy, but I do think you are on the right path.

Bob.

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Old May 1st, 2016, 01:12 AM   #508 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Pivot Point Guy View Post
So I agree that taking some time off or paper trading in real time. It does wonders for me as the "it's not real money" does not compute with me due to the time in the arena "in real life!". It also takes the pressure off so I can reevaluate my trading plan, money management, etc. Such as taking a look at volatility with more consideration for stop loss ranges with price action.

I resisted for a long time, but now that I have been with Topstep for a while I have found it to be a happy medium between trading live and trading sim. Results mean something in both directions, without the prospect of catastrophic losses to one's trading capital.

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Old May 1st, 2016, 03:26 PM   #509 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
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Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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bobwest View Post
I think you've got something there.

It is obvious that you can look at a chart, and I mean in real time, not hindsight, and you can see where the opportunities lie. As evidence for this statement, I offer your entire journal to date.

So you do see them. I think that is one essential step.

Step 2 is what you are getting at here. When to take them, when not.

When you see things as they are, you pull the trigger at the correct time, by your method and your lights, and if you lose from doing it, you don't care. The next time, if you have the same situation, you do the same thing again. And you aren't concerned about the outcome, before you actually get it.

Anticipating how it will work out, on any basis other than, "This is a valid trade according to my understanding, so I'm taking it," is unlikely to get you anywhere. If your understanding is wrong, you can do what you probably have done all your life in your professional or business career, and find your error and fix it. Then, you just go back to doing what you know is the right thing, and at the right time. After some adjustments, it will start to pay off. I believe that the only problem you have is hesitation, and doubt.

Seriously.

(No, don't go crazy and just click that mouse on any impulse that enters your head. That's the opposite error, and not any better -- worse, in fact. But follow your considered judgment, correct your inevitable mistakes, get back up on that horse and do it again. Why should trading be any different from any of the other things you have learned how to do well???)

Good luck. It is not all that easy, but I do think you are on the right path.

Bob.

Bless you Bobwest. FIO wouldn't be half what it is without your presence!

I am reading the book, "The Nature Of Risk", by Justin Mamis. The main takeaway I get from the book is the idea that, while ultimately making money is the goal of trading, the trader shouldn't be focused on winning and losing, but rather just playing the game. Initially the trader will not play the game well. Over time, like anything else, skills will improve, adjustments will be made, and eventually the game will be played properly enough to make money.

The worst mistake the trader can make is to not play. In other words, not take the trades. More learning comes from taking the swing and missing than not taking the swing at all. The key of course is to last long enough to make the required adjustments. This is where TST is such a nice offering to the modern day retail trader.

I thank you for your thoughts and wish nothing but the best for your trading!

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Old May 1st, 2016, 04:08 PM   #510 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 3,476 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 24,957 given, 10,578 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Why, thanks. (Blush.)

I completely agree about TST. Unlike pure sim, it is not so low-risk, low-consequence that it doesn't mean anything to you and so doesn't trigger any emotional involvement or seriousness, but it also isn't so high-consequence that you don't want to take the swing at all. It's a nice balance.

I haven't read this particular book by Mamis, but have read others of his over the years. I found them very worthwhile.

Just keep going in the direction you're on. I notice you've got that TST Trade Report filled up with trading most days, so you're doing that swing. As you said, that's the only time anyone learns anything they can really use.

Good luck.

Bob.

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