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Tap In's Corner
Started:November 23rd, 2014 (09:08 PM) by Tap In Views / Replies:34,383 / 839
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Tap In's Corner

Old December 5th, 2014, 01:17 PM   #41 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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One more thought.

Of course, the easy answer for days like today would be to hit the "Reverse" button when the trade looks to be failing, because the market is trying to tell me something. Today the strategy would have worked quite nicely, but that would mean going against trend in most cases.

I have notice however, that there are often situations where a failed break out of a trend line against trend can be a nice harbinger of a big move with trend once the price reverses and gets going again. That was my thinking on the 2nd CL trade. But, as is the market's want, in that case it needed to shake out a few more weak hands like me before getting back to business.

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Old December 5th, 2014, 05:25 PM   #42 (permalink)
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Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

Trades Taken: 14, -43t, plus commissions
Should have taken: 2, potential +20t
Courage Ratio: 14/16= 87%
2 winners, 12 losers (4 were exited at BE but commissions put them in loser category)
Max draw down: -$789.60
Final: $-506.40

Well, what does one say about a day like today? What are the takeaways? Sure, I could review every trade and find the 1 or 2 reasons each of them didn’t work, and I will probably do this. But what is this really going to accomplish? Can’t we find something wrong with every trade, even the ones that work? So, here are some bigger picture things to look at:

-I fought hard today, and was focused. No wondering off on some other project. I was there man. Up until about the last 4 or 5 trades, I was really trying to be patient and take quality trades. The last few were “what the hell” trades, and a couple experiments. Regardless, I will enter the results, take the hit to my sim total and move on.

-I was very courageous today (just not very smart). Between 10-15 trades is about what I would like each day across 4 instruments. The couple of “should have taken” trades didn’t do much either. There was really only one trade I wish I would have taken, but the risk was too great so I passed and didn’t even mark it.

-I was calm while in each trade. The more I trade, the calmer I am. It’s almost like a resignation to let whatever happen happen. This is the way I want to trade, not agonizing over every entry, passing winner after winner, and looking back with regret. I want to see my entry and do it. I am fully aware this would be different with real money, and that is why until my results and consistency improve I will not trade with real money. If today were with real money I would have quit with three losses and -38t a half hour into the day.

-I rarely come back from a big deficit. If I get down 40 ticks on three losing trades early, there is a good chance I am going to spin my wheels for the rest of the day. Not sure why this is, but I would really like to improve in this area.

-My instincts to abort trades early were very good. Only one trade turned back in my favor after aborting. The rest moved against me, some in a big way. This kept me from a lot more losses. Which brings me to the hard point…

-My trade location selection was abysmal. Today’s losses were not as a result of bad psychology, or poor money management, or bad trade management. No, today my entries were S**t! No two ways about it. I would have done better flipping a coin. There are really only two explanations, either it was just “one of those days”, or the way I trade is crap.

Either way time will tell. More days like today and I will have to do some hard thinking.

Monday: After days like yesterday and today my tendency is to rubber band the other way. I pull in and get pickier, only to watch a potentially spectacular day sail by. My focus for Monday will be to trade with the same abandon I have traded the last two days. Be a man. Take the hits. See what’s possible. I will either learn my plan works or it doesn't. In either case it will be useful.

Charts marked in real time.

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Tap In's Corner-2014-12-05_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-05_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-05_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-05_nq_summary.png  
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Old December 5th, 2014, 05:38 PM   #43 (permalink)
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Tap In View Post
Trades Taken: 14, -43t, plus commissions
Should have taken: 2, potential +20t
Courage Ratio: 14/16= 87%
2 winners, 12 losers (4 were exited at BE but commissions put them in loser category)
Max draw down: -$789.60
Final: $-506.40

Well, what does one say about a day like today? What are the takeaways? Sure, I could review every trade and find the 1 or 2 reasons each of them didn’t work, and I will probably do this. But what is this really going to accomplish? Can’t we find something wrong with every trade, even the ones that work? So, here are some bigger picture things to look at:

-I fought hard today, and was focused. No wondering off on some other project. I was there man. Up until about the last 4 or 5 trades, I was really trying to be patient and take quality trades. The last few were “what the hell” trades, and a couple experiments. Regardless, I will enter the results, take the hit to my sim total and move on.

-I was very courageous today (just not very smart). Between 10-15 trades is about what I would like each day across 4 instruments. The couple of “should have taken” trades didn’t do much either. There was really only one trade I wish I would have taken, but the risk was too great so I passed and didn’t even mark it.

-I was calm while in each trade. The more I trade, the calmer I am. It’s almost like a resignation to let whatever happen happen. This is the way I want to trade, not agonizing over every entry, passing winner after winner, and looking back with regret. I want to see my entry and do it. I am fully aware this would be different with real money, and that is why until my results and consistency improve I will not trade with real money. If today were with real money I would have quit with three losses and -38t a half hour into the day.

-I rarely come back from a big deficit. If I get down 40 ticks on three losing trades early, there is a good chance I am going to spin my wheels for the rest of the day. Not sure why this is, but I would really like to improve in this area.

-My instincts to abort trades early were very good. Only one trade turned back in my favor after aborting. The rest moved against me, some in a big way. This kept me from a lot more losses. Which brings me to the hard point…

-My trade location selection was abysmal. Today’s losses were not as a result of bad psychology, or poor money management, or bad trade management. No, today my entries were S**t! No two ways about it. I would have done better flipping a coin. There are really only two explanations, either it was just “one of those days”, or the way I trade is crap.

Either way time will tell. More days like today and I will have to do some hard thinking.

Monday: After days like yesterday and today my tendency is to rubber band the other way. I pull in and get pickier, only to watch a potentially spectacular day sail by. My focus for Monday will be to trade with the same abandon I have traded the last two days. Be a man. Take the hits. See what’s possible. I will either learn my plan works or it doesn't. In either case it will be useful.

Charts marked in real time.

One thing to keep in mind is that today was the Non Farm payroll release..and it can even effect the price action on CL a bit. Also on Friday, considering how far oil has fallen the last weeks, there may be some uncertainty going into the weekend. Which means big Traders might not commit to any heavy positions on a day like this which can effect the price movement too.
I did find a couple of pullback/ shorting opportunities for 20 to 30 ticks or so early on..and a small reversal long after 11 am est or so. This was a day where you had to be patient..set a reasonable target and not interfere with the trade until it hits your stop or your target. I say that because some of my trades really bounced around..almost hit my stop and then went on to hit the target. If I had exited them because I didn't like the way they were moving..etc..I wouldn't have made as many ticks as I did. I know you were also trading other instruments..but the same logic could apply to those.

Failure is not an option
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Old December 5th, 2014, 08:36 PM   #44 (permalink)
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lancelottrader View Post
One thing to keep in mind is that today was the Non Farm payroll release..and it can even effect the price action on CL a bit. Also on Friday, considering how far oil has fallen the last weeks, there may be some uncertainty going into the weekend. Which means big Traders might not commit to any heavy positions on a day like this which can effect the price movement too.
I did find a couple of pullback/ shorting opportunities for 20 to 30 ticks or so early on..and a small reversal long after 11 am est or so. This was a day where you had to be patient..set a reasonable target and not interfere with the trade until it hits your stop or your target. I say that because some of my trades really bounced around..almost hit my stop and then went on to hit the target. If I had exited them because I didn't like the way they were moving..etc..I wouldn't have made as many ticks as I did. I know you were also trading other instruments..but the same logic could apply to those.

Thanks for that. Unfortunately I passed on the early shorts for various reasons that I thought were valid (I better think again), and was on the wrong side of the reversal, so not very good trading. My early exits were the only thing that saved me. Otherwise I would have had four full stop outs in oil. Plenty of movement to make good money though, if one knows what they are doing.

I liked your post regarding methods working better under certain conditions. That may describe mine, although I do think it is within reason to shoot for 30 tick targets in oil even on non trending days.

Thanks for reading and commenting

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Old December 7th, 2014, 02:00 PM   #45 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Main takeaways from review of week of 12/1/14 to 12/5/14:

-Look for the “Open Field”
-If compelled to trade in range, make sure it is big enough, and trade off of or toward other edges.
-Loose action good, tight action not so much
-Pay attention to obvious CD events, especially in Oil
-Watch for overshoots in well define channels for possible directional change
-Watch for following set up: bounce off some significant S/R, break of larger well defined channel, Retest try and failure break of smaller TL. Classic LH, HL trap. Often good for big moves
-Best opps in open field or after clearance of ranges. No need to be first in line. Plenty of opps available later. No need to worry about missing out.
-Careful of the 2 bite failure. If it happens look for a play in other direction.
-NG is sneaky. Moves quietly but often effectively
-NG: made several choppy flag patterns, best trades after patterns were cleared.

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Last edited by Tap In; December 7th, 2014 at 02:22 PM.
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Old December 7th, 2014, 03:19 PM   #46 (permalink)
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...Continuing on a series of posts detailing my 3 step trade execution process.

Step 2) Draw short term trend lines to serve as reference points to signal the beginning of significant market movement, setting up the trade entry.

Because the market does not move in a straight line, in one direction only, all changes in market movement start with the break or bounce off of some sort of trend line, whether the trend line is at an angle, forming a sloping channel, or horizontal, forming a range.

My main set-up occurs after the break of a short term trend line (trigger line), in the direction I believe the market has the highest probability of traveling at least two times my risk before retracing significantly.

Further, if the break of a trend line truly does signal the start of new movement, there will be a point-of-no-return where price does not look back. It is my desire to enter the market as close as possible to this point, so that the MAE is as small as possible. This is good for the account and good for the heart.

To accomplish a low average MAE I need to be satisfied that the movement preceding my trigger line has taken out all participants that will keep it from moving my way. In addition, I want to feel that the final retracement has occurred that would cause significant movement against my position.

My favorite trades are those that occur in super strong trends. Often there is little backfilling once price has broken a short term line. This can happen four times in a row in a strong trend, causing little heat, yielding 30-50 ticks at a pop.

Non time-based charts (tick, volume) are preferred over time-based charts. I use tick charts, varying the number of ticks per bar according to the typical volatility of the instrument. Tick charts compress overnight data and periods of slow activity, revealing what I find to be more effective trend and channel lines.

I do not necessarily treat trend lines as true support or resistance, but rather reference points to market movement. With that said, it is amazing how often price will follow orderly movement between two lines. This could be the result of a self fulfilling prophecy among the trading community or periodic buy/sell programs by larger players.

My trend lines are constantly evolving. The process of drawing proper trend lines, adjusting those lines, and identifying the point-of-no-return is in large part a function of screen time.

Next up, Step 3, the entry. To be continued...


Last edited by Tap In; December 7th, 2014 at 03:49 PM.
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Old December 8th, 2014, 12:01 PM   #47 (permalink)
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trd 1 for day, NG. Focused on entry quality and hitting the button. Management quality later

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Old December 8th, 2014, 12:04 PM   #48 (permalink)
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Passed on trade of day so far

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Old December 8th, 2014, 08:05 PM   #49 (permalink)
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Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

Trades Taken: 1, +7t


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Monday: After days like yesterday and today my tendency is to rubber band the other way. I pull in and get pickier, only to watch a potentially spectacular day sail by. My focus for Monday will be to trade with the same abandon I have traded the last two days. Be a man. Take the hits. See what’s possible. I will either learn my plan works or it doesn't. In either case it will be useful.

-Mission not accomplished, with caveat: except for a couple trades, deliberately made decision to pass on trades for what I considered valid reasons. Including: trading into potential S/R, choppy action preceding trigger, trigger bar too big for too much risk.

-For this reason, hard to pinpoint courage ratio. Was I looking for a reason not to trade, or did I believe my own shit?

-Potential huge day

-Friday on my mind and the rubber band effect in play

-Market didn’t care about my reasons. Need to reconsider my criteria on days like today. Risk would have been worth it. 15 ticks for 40 ticks? You bet

-The one and only trade made it to target. A positive even though exited early. More trades to target will help to stay in.

-Most of my previous urge to catch bottoms and tops in strong trends purged. It’s still there deep down, but now able to control it.

-Frustrated but excited. Frustrated I didn’t take advantage. Excited the opportunities are there.

Tomorrow: Wait for the open field, take the trade.

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Tap In's Corner-2014-12-08_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-08_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-08_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-08_nq_summary.png  
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Old December 9th, 2014, 11:12 AM   #50 (permalink)
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Gold and NQ open field this morning. Hesitated on an NQ trade that went 60 ticks. Very upsetting.

Trade 1 and 2 on Gold. 0t and +30

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