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Tap In's Corner
Started:November 23rd, 2014 (09:08 PM) by Tap In Views / Replies:34,383 / 839
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Tap In's Corner

Old September 14th, 2015, 05:27 PM   #381 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

9/14/15 Monday

9/14/15 Monday
Live Trades: 0
Day’s P/L: $0

No live trades today. Thank goodness, it would have been a bloodbath. The only decent move was natural gas, but the way everything else was moving scared me off. Took way, way, way too many sim trades, most of them losers. Somehow have gotten away from consulting the 3X chart. Doing so would have eliminated many bad trades and added some better ones. This sim trading is paying off as it is making me realize I have a lot to improve on.

I’m also starting to recognize the potential of reversing my strategy on days like today. Pick marginal trade locations and go short where I would normally go long, and vice versa. Manage the trade exactly the opposite. Put the stop at -2R, the target at +1R. Move the target to BE when price has moved -1R. The trick is to recognize the type of day as early as possible. Fast trending day, go with the normal strategy. Slow rangy day, go with the reverse strategy. I say all this partly in jest, but not completely. Flipping my entries upside down could have made some good money today.

Meanwhile I’ll patiently wait for the markets to come alive, possibly on news events later in the week.

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Old September 16th, 2015, 12:53 AM   #382 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

9/15/15 Tuesday

9/15/15 Tuesday
Live Trades: 1 win
Day’s P/L: $122.00

One live trade on ZN. Focused more on the 3X chart today with better results. Waited for the 3X chart to confirm before considering a trade. Treated sim with more respect. No stupid boredom trades. Need to keep this up to get true potential of system.

Stacked a trade on NQ when 1st trade was in the money. Look to do this on trend days to multiply returns.

Took 9 sim trades. Results:
6 wins
3 losses
Sim P/L: $535.34

Live and sim together:
10 trades
7 wins
3 losses
Max DD: -137.64
Total P/L: $657.34

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2015-09-15_cl.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-15_gc.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-15_ng.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-15_ym.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-15_6e.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-15_zn.png  
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Old September 16th, 2015, 04:30 PM   #383 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

9/16/15 Wednesday


9/16/15 Wednesday
Live Trades: 0
Day’s P/L: $0

No live trades. Really not that many opportunities. Had a live trade chambered on CL at 7:45. Read the action perfectly, but couldn’t get myself to pull the trigger. No belief. Got to get over the fear of an individual loss on a set up and think of the long term payout in the aggregate. Some will lose, but the ones that win will more than overcome. Bummed I missed it but nice to see it worked so well. Next time!

6 sim trades. Could have been a few more. Results:
1 win
5 losses
Max DD: -$228.95
Sim P/L: $66.45

Once again focused mainly on the 3X charts to confirm before taking a trade. This is keeping me out of stupid trades. Keep it up. Even with that, I got bit twice trading inside ranges trying to catch the first move. This is a losing game. Need to jettison this tendency.

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Tap In's Corner-2015-09-16_cl.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-16_gc.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-16_ng.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-16_ym.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-16_6e.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-16_zn.png  
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Old September 17th, 2015, 05:12 PM   #384 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

9/17/15 Thursday

9/17/15 Thursday
Live Trades: 0
Day’s P/L: $0

No live trades. Was looking forward to a heavy news day, especially with the much anticipated FOMC. Pre FOMC was dead. Took a couple shots in sim and lost. Post FOMC was hectic. There was indecision in the markets which kind of spooked me out of going live. I’ve found that the trick to these high volatility events is to wait, wait, wait, until the true move is revealed. Too early and you get chopped. Managed to find the true move in GC and YM for $600 and $300 in sim, respectively. Gave some back later on YM on stupid trades.

Sim results:
10 trades
2 wins
8 losses
Max DD: -$310.53
Max run up: $580.86
Sim P/L: $208.80

I also experimented with some inverse trades on a second sim account. These are trades that are taken in the exact opposite direction of my method. The premise being that in choppy markets my method gets beat up, so why not take trades in the same areas but in the other direction? Took 4 inverse sim trades pre-FOMC, with 4/4 wins and a P/L of $336.78. Not bad for the first go around. This will definitely be worth exploring further.

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Tap In's Corner-2015-09-17_cl.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-17_gc.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-17_ng.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-17_ym.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-17_6e.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-17_zn.png  

Last edited by Tap In; September 18th, 2015 at 04:07 PM.
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Old September 18th, 2015, 04:44 PM   #385 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

9/18/15 Friday

Futures Edge on FIO

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9/18/15 Friday
Live Trades: 0
Day’s P/L: $0

No trades today. No attractive areas. Continued working out in sim, both with the standard method and the inverse method. Results:

Standard method:
8 trades
2 wins
6 losses (3 were mistakes and should have been on Sim account #2 because they were the Inverse Method)
Max DD: -44.60
Max run up: $161.90
Sim P/L: $113.83

Inverse Method:
10 trades
5 wins
5 losses
Max DD: -304.90
Max run up: $405.08
Sim P/L: $136.46

After working with the inverse method the last couple days I am beginning to sense its potential. It is hard to do, since I am essentially fading my standard method, but for at least the last two days the win rate is higher and it can be employed under conditions that exist more often in the market. One question is how much wiggle room to give the trade. It will be somewhere between -1R and -2R. This will be worked out over time. The key is to find, well, bad trades, and go in the opposite direction. I try to imagine my less experienced, less patient self, and pick places where I might be tempted to enter. I know a lot of folks have kicked around this idea at one time or another, but having traded my standard method for so long, and watched trades succeed and fail, I think I have some context from which begin

At some time in the future this might be a tool to trade in all market conditions. At the very least it keeps me busy while waiting for great set ups the standard way.

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Tap In's Corner-2015-09-18_cl.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-18_gc.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-18_ng.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-18_ym.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-18_6e.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-18_zn.png  
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Old September 20th, 2015, 02:46 PM   #386 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
Tap In's Avatar
 
Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

Weekly Summary 9/14/15 to 9/18/15

Weekly Summary 9/14/15 to 9/18/15
Live Trades: 1 win
Week’s P/L: $122.00

Starting balance for the week: $3448.60
Withdrawals for the week: $0
Deposits for the week: $0
Ending balance for the week: $3570.60

Beginning account balance from first live trade on 3/10/15: $3000.00
Total Withdrawals: $0
Total Deposits: $0
Total Gains/losses from 3/10/15: $570.60

Live trading took a backseat to experimentation as there was only one live trade compared to numerous sim trades. The live trade pushed my account forward, but several good opportunities were missed, some that still sting today. There is no doubt the sim trading is distracting me from taking trades live, but I feel this work will eventually improve my skills. It usually takes a couple weeks to grow accustom to a new process, so the distraction is not a surprise. My natural desire to make headway will soon take over and I will be back to taking more live trades. No reason to push it before then.

As for this sim trading, there are two parts. Part one (Sim 1) is where all set ups, or as many as possible, are taken that fit the criteria of the method I have been utilizing for the past year. This is known as the Standard Method. The purpose of the exercise is to get a better feel for the method's effectiveness. This exercise is essentially replacing the markers with actual sim trading. I believe this is a better reflection of what can be done with live trading and provides an official record to analyze. The key is to take the sim trading seriously, treating it as if it were live. This is no small task as it is easy to get complacent and take stupid boredom trades. Monday I took a lot of stupid boredom trades. Tuesday through Friday were traded with proper discretion. Tuesday through Friday results:

33 trades
11 wins
22 losses
P/L: $924.43

Part two (Sim 2) was launched this week on a second sim account. In effect, it is the opposite of the Standard Method. For lack of a better name, it is refereed to as the Inverse Method. The premise being that when I take too many marginal or impatient trades I usually lose and lose big. Someone is on the other side of those trades. Why shouldn’t it be me? So I began looking for areas that my more inexperienced and impatient self might trade, and went in the opposite direction. The results were quite good for the first two days:

14 trades
9 winners
5 losers
P/L: $638.64

Admittedly, trading this way is less comfortable, as it goes against everything I have been trying to do. Could it be that ultimately this is the secret to successful trading, doing what is hard? Doing what is not natural? In the end, I believe it will come down to using the proper method for the proper conditions: the Standard Method for strong momentum markets, the Inverse Method for slow choppy markets.

Next week, more sim 1, sim 2 experimentation, and hopefully a little more live trading.

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Old September 22nd, 2015, 04:30 PM   #387 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

9/22/15 Tuesday

9/22/15 Tuesday
Live Trades: 1 loss
Day’s P/L: -$4.02

No live trades Monday. One live trade Today on YM. Markets are dead. Moves are few and far between. Trying to catch good trades means risking a lot of fake outs. So as not to waste time I continued working in sim with the standard and inverse methods. Combined results for Monday and Tuesday:

Standard method:
12 trades
2 wins
10 losses
Sim P/L: -$555.00
Momentum method is no good during quiet times, affirming my decision to avoid live trading.

Inverse Method:
9 trades
6 wins
3 losses
Max DD: -135.76
Max run up: $422.86
Sim P/L: $11.20
Two of the losses were nearly -2R. Need to decide a better way to exit at loss. Perhaps just getting out at -1R, no questions asked. None of the 6 wins reached -1R so it would have saved nearly $300.

So far, in this market, the inverse method produces a better win loss ratio and less draw down. Have to be careful not to trade it against a trend, which is where a couple of the losses came from. Make sure there is plenty of resistance between the entry price and the stop.

Charts show standard method sim fills. Inverse trades not shown.

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2015-09-22_cl.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-22_gc.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-22_ng.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-22_ym.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-22_6e.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-22_zn.png  
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Old September 23rd, 2015, 09:46 PM   #388 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

9/23/15 Wednesday

9/23/15 Wednesday
Live Trades: 0
Day’s P/L: $0

No live trades. Continued sim trading. Focused more on the inverse method today. Took too many counter trend trades, and essentially spun my wheels.

Results:
Standard
3 trades (one mistake)
2 wins
P/L: $346.78

Inverse
19 trades
7 wins
12 losses
Max DD: -$720.26
P/L: -$103.36

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2015-09-23_cl.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-23_gc.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-23_ng.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-23_ym.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-23_6e.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-23_zn.png  
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Old September 26th, 2015, 05:10 PM   #389 (permalink)
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Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

9/24/15 Thursday and 9/25/15 Friday

9/24/15 Thursday and 9/25/15 Friday
Live Trades: 1
Day’s P/L: -$104.02

Two trading days, one live trade on YM. Lots of sim trading. Results:

Standard Method:
29 trades
11 wins
18 losses
Max DD: -$235.61
P/L: 320.43

Lots of trading for a little bit of gain, but at least it was positive. Trying to take as many trades as the method calls for. Still missed a few.

Inverse Method:
17 trades
6 wins
11 losses
P/L -$618.01

Not good results. Took a lot of inverse trades Thursday, not many Friday. Got kind of confused as to when to take an inverse trade and when to step aside.

Friday’s charts included

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Tap In's Corner-2015-09-26_cl.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-26_gc.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-26_ng.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-26_ym.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-26_6e.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-09-26_zn.png  
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Old September 28th, 2015, 02:10 PM   #390 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
Tap In's Avatar
 
Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

Weekly Summary 9/21/15 to 9/25/15


Weekly Summary 9/21/15 to 9/25/15
Live Trades: 2 losses
Week’s P/L: -$113.04

Starting balance for the week: $3570.60
Withdrawals for the week: $0
Deposits for the week: $0
Ending balance for the week: $3457.56

Beginning account balance from first live trade on 3/10/15: $3000.00
Total Withdrawals: $0
Total Deposits: $0
Total Gains/losses from 3/10/15: $457.56

Only two live trades this week. Continued sim trading this week to fully flesh out my method. The results were not inspiring. Either the markets are very difficult to trade right now or my method needs continued adjustments. Probably a little of both. I am not seeing a lot of set ups that cause me to want to trade live.

I employed two types of sim trading, the standard method and the inverse method as explained in earlier posts. Results:

Standard method:
45 trades
15 wins
30 losses
P/L: -$262.39

Inverse Method:
45 trades
19 wins
26 losses
P/L: -$710.17

It seems no matter what method is used, losses are the norm. Not sure why this is but it seems to be the reality. I have learned a little something trading the inverse method, but it gets a little tricky trying to determine when to trade it. It has its moments

This week I will continue to focus on taking advantage of specific opportunities live, while fully testing my methods in sim.

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