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9/1/15 Tuesday
Live Trades: 2, 1 win, 1 loss
Day’s P/L: $-8.04
Thankful to have finished the day relatively unscathed. Two trades, both on YM. The first was a 30 tick loser, the second a 30 tick winner. This was a minor victory to have the courage to risk another $150 after losing $150. Kind of like making par after hitting it in the trees. Feels like birdie. I was looking for a big down move on YM. There was a decent move with 30 minutes to go but I didn’t have a good set up or the courage to enter.
Other than that, the markets were mostly very difficult. I didn’t see much that I liked. Oil moved a lot, but it was too much for my puny 15 tick stops. The movements were wide and loose. Staying patient.
9/2/15 Wednesday
Live Trades: 2, 2 losses
Day’s P/L: $-200.15
Two trades, two losses. One on ZN and one on YM. The ZN trade was decent but not perfect. The YM trade was a bit impulsive. The premise was ok but I should have waited a few seconds to see if the break out would hold. A few seconds is all it took. At least I exited before a full stop out.
The two losses caused me to tighten up. Thus I passed on some nice opportunities to avoid a blowout day relative to my account size. It was super frustrating watching many good set ups work out, but it’s part of the discipline thing. Wiser to wait until tomorrow morning and the higher volatility opportunities than to risk a huge and psychologically damaging draw down day.
Monthly Recap August 2015
Live Trades: 37: 17 winners, 20 losers
Month’s P/L: $1190.85
Starting balance for the Month: $2434.56
Withdrawals for the month: $0
Deposits for the month: $0
Ending balance for the month: $3625.41
Beginning account balance from first live trade on 3/10/15: $3000.00
Total Withdrawals: $0
Total Deposits: $0
Total Gains/losses from 3/10/15: $626.41
August saw me getting the account back into the black. The win/loss percentage was not much better than last month but with the average win at $101.45 against the average loss of -$26.96 it made for some nice gains. I took a week off in sim to test my system to its limit and discovered, as I usually do, that my perception of the system is much better than the reality. After starting that week taking “everything”, I settled down and took more measured set ups that had better context. The week following was productive, with some nice gains.
Regarding the potential of my live trades:
-24 (65%) got to 1R. Not bad. The goal is 70%
-11 (29%) got to 2R. This is better than last month but still not happy with it. Ultimately would like to see this number approaching 50%.
Trades combined with the real time markers were better.
- 31 got to 2R against 32 that hit the -1R stop.
Under-trading is still an issue. Letting a lot of good trades go but I need to remain cautious while building the cushion. The key for me is to not let passed opportunities get me upset. Just let them go and visualize the day when I will be able to take them all. I chose not to take them for a reason. It is a conscience choice, so I should be treating that fact as part of my strategy.
Regarding technique, I am trying to pay more attention to when price does what I call “riding the supply or demand line”. This is when price makes a series of higher lows or lower highs along an established or developing SL or DL, then breaks sharply in the same direction. It can be quite a nice harbinger of a strong move.
Periodically expanding the charts to visualize how I might mark them at the end of the day has also been helpful. It helps me to make the judgement in real time on whether or not a trade is legit. In addition, I continue to look at the 3X chart to help with context.
Next month I will focus on:
-Continuing to focus on the big charts and taking only “good” areas.
-Waiting for slightly larger patterns to capture those 2R trades
-Visualizing the end-of-day recap while in real time.
No trades today. I came in to the day feeling an apathy toward taking risk. It definitely had something to do with the two losses yesterday. I figured I would lay low and wait for a special moment, which never came.
While watching the charts I suddenly realized my biggest fear in trading, the one that holds me back the most from taking a trade. It is the in-your-face reversal. The trade where the moment I enter, price stalls at 0, 1, 2, or even 3 ticks in the money then turns and makes its way toward my stop, at times with great rapidity, as if to scream, “wrong sucker!” It is the trade that leaves no room for management, except the decision on how much loss to take. The companion to this fear is that it will happen every time, or at least enough times to cause great damage to the account. This is the bogyman that I need to put behind me. Therefore I will be embarking on finding ways to overcome this issue. Much of it will involve trading in sim, but I will still trade live when the moment is right. This is not like my recent week of sim only.
Intellectually I know that successful trading includes taking losses. The key is to have great confidence that the losses will be handily overcome by the winners. This is when the trader can freely trade to their full potential.
No trades live trades. The market was not easy, though ZN had some opportunities. Overall, I’m ok not trading live today since the other markets probably would have taken the ZN profits away.
I did a lot of sim trading in the meantime, trying to flesh out a few things. Building on my post of yesterday, what I am really striving for is consistency of process. Meaning, the process of taking valid trades without hesitation, every time, every day. The fear of the in-your-face reversal is part of the reason for this lack the consistency, but the real culprit is the fear that the wins will not overcome the losses (this is no great revelation, I admit). This causes a sort of yo-yo effect where one day I am overly cautious in an effort to avoid loss, and the next day overly brave because I missed so many opportunities the day before. This is no way to go through a career as a professional trader. The goal would be to take everything, every day, with the realization, and acceptance, that there will be times of loss and times of gain. I need to get to the bottom of this by proving some things out. I could be tilting at windmills. In the mean time I will still trade live when the opportunities present, but it will take some time getting used to switching the mind back and forth from one mode to the other.
Weekly Summary 8/31/15 to 9/4/15
Live Trades: 6 trades, 2 wins, 4 losses
Week’s P/L: -$-46.81
Starting balance for the week: $3464.03
Withdrawals for the week: $0
Deposits for the week: $0
Ending balance for the week: $3417.22
Beginning account balance from first live trade on 3/10/15: $3000.00
Total Withdrawals: $0
Total Deposits: $0
Total Gains/losses from 3/10/15: $417.22
A disappointing week after the previous one. I came in with great expectations and confidence. The week started nicely with a 17 tick win on Monday. After some spotty trading Tuesday and Wednesday, I lost my nerve. There was plenty of missed opportunity, but, admittedly, plenty of chance for loss as well. Certain markets behaved well, while others became difficult.
It has become apparent, at least to me, that I need to do something about the inconsistencies in following my method. For the near future I will be trading both live and sim. Live when an opportunity arises, and sim for a more aggressive approach to trading under my rules. Doing this will allow me to have a more concrete record to evaluate, with trade management as an added variable.
9/8/15 Tuesday
Live Trades: 1 loss
Day’s P/L: -$114.02
One live trade on YM for a 22 tick loss and 13 sim trades spread out over the instruments. The YM trade did not have to be a loss. I bailed early thinking it was a trap. In hindsight the entry was too early. Should have waited for a small pull back with resumption.
The sim trading didn’t go well. Results:
13 trades
3 wins
10 losses
-$237.07
Many of the trades were in good locations that allowed for at least BE. A few were mismanaged and a couple were not good trades. I am definitely more cavalier about the sim trades, taking marginal entries and allowing them to move around more. Need to tighten up the discipline if it is going to mean anything.
Traded only in sim today. Did not see anything I thought worthy of live risk. It will take some time to adjust to trading both sim and live. It is real easy to just take everything in sim and avoid risk, but soon enough I will get the itch to make money and I will spot a trade or two that are worthy.
Sim trading went better today:
8 trades
4 wins
4 losses
Max draw down: -$4.02
P/L: +$360.62
Took things more seriously today. Waited patiently and tried to take quality, justifiable trades. Missed a dandy on ZN trying to work my order. It is very possible it would have filled live.
