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Trading is hard. Just keep at it. You probably remember Costner in Tin Cup; here is his quintessential role from Bull Durham. "You know what the difference is in hitting 250 and 300? One hit a week. Just one more hit a week...and you're in Yankee Stadium."
7/1/15 Wednesday
Live Trades: 1 winner
Day’s P/L: $75.13
One trade on ZN. Layered bases in a down trend.
Focused more attention on the bigger charts today. It helped to keep me focused on the forest rather than the trees. I think I was getting in to watching every little perceived set up. Now I can better see opportunities that have a chance of moving farther for the risk. Also back to trying to find the symmetrical channels to better stay on the correct side of things. These things are all well and good, but I need to take advantage of the opps that come up through this analysis, like the move down in oil today. It’s ok to admire the forest from above, but at some point I need to get down in the trees to get something done.
NFP and natural gas inventory day. Took 6 trades, 3 on NG and 3 on ZN. Definitely feeling more comfortable in trades. Could have been a slightly positive day but I let my third NG trade try to run. It came back to BE after being up 15t. Looked like it had potential.
Of the six trades, four were very good set ups while two were a bit iffy. I am back to using the bigger chart for context. When viewed on the bigger charts, it is very obvious which trades were well placed and which were not. I think if I focus on trading good areas based on the bigger charts I will have much better results overall. Was getting a bit in the weeds the past few weeks.
Once again, entered a lot of trades that did not go far, while skipping the ones that did. Not sure what the psychology is here. For the most part, the set ups I am taking are fine, they just don’t move. Then I will pass on another set up that also looks fine and it takes off. There is either something in these set ups that bothers me, or I am having incredibly bad luck.
Along with the trades I placed one other marker. Marker and trade recap:
Monthly Recap June 2015
Live Trades: 30: 9 winners, 21 losers
Starting balance for the Month: $2942.01
Withdrawals for the month: $0
Deposits for the month: $0
Month’s P/L: -$651.61
Ending balance for the month: $2290.40
Beginning account balance from first live trade on 3/10/15: $3000.00
Total Withdrawals: $0
Total Deposits: $0
Total Gains/losses from 3/10/15: -$709.60
Trade count was up for the month but trade quality was down. The win/loss ratio coupled with average winning trade to average losing trade was not a winning formula. I conducted a study of the trades taken to see if something popped out as to why my win/loss was so low. Using the bigger picture charts, I rated each trade:
-Did the market move in the general direction of the trade after it was taken? Yes, 21/30
-If so, what would the stop have to have been to stay in the trade? Was this stop more or less than my normal stop for that instrument? In 12/21 cases the stop would have to be slightly or much wider.
-Did the trade look like a good trade when viewed on the big picture chart? Yes, 15/30. OK, 10/30. No, 5/30
The results did not yield any glaring mistakes, but definitely some room for improvement. Some highlights:
-There were 5 of the 30 trades that I would consider bad entries according to my rules. All 5 of these were losers
-15 of the 30 trades were good trades. 6 of these were losers. The rest were winners or BE.
-10 of the 30 were just “ok”, but I could have easily passed. There were 3 losers in this category.
-The ok and bad trades resulted in 8 losers, and were largely a result of not consulting the bigger picture charts before taking the trade. Somehow I got away from doing this over the past couple of months.
-The market moved in the direction of the entry 21 of 30 times. This is positive, except that 12 occasions would have required a wider stop to stay in the trade. In addition, not each of the moves went a long way, so it is not clear I would make up for the larger losses using wider stops.
-Looking back on the bigger picture charts it is clear I passed on a lot of great trades. I still think I am letting too many good opportunities go, and by doing so skewing my results to the negative.
My goal for the next month will be to focus on the bigger charts and try to eliminate all “bad” or “ok” trades. If at the end of the month I can say all trades were "good", and I am still losing, than I will need to rethink how I am looking at the markets.
Weekly Summary 6/29/15 to 7/3/15
Live Trades: 9, 3 winners, 6 losers
Week’s P/L: -$143.06
Starting balance for the week: $2452.65
Withdrawals for the week: $0
Deposits for the week: $0
Ending balance for the week: $2309.59
Beginning account balance from first live trade on 3/10/15: $3000.00
Total Withdrawals: $0
Total Deposits: $0
Total Gains/losses from 3/10/15: -$690.41
Not much in the way of commentary to add to the monthly recap. I am below margin to trade CL and 6E, so I will have to substitute QM and M6E for the time being.
Focus will be on the big picture charts and taking trades that can be classified as "good".
Focused a lot more attention on the 3X charts. It was more relaxing and informative. It definitely caused less anxiety of missing out. I was still hesitant on some really good trade areas though. Today could have been a nicely profitable day otherwise. I still need to act on those areas that fit all criteria.
Took one trade on NQ. Once I moved to BE I had to leave the screen. Target was set at 2R (30 ticks). It reached +27 ticks before reversing back to entry. Good trade, well executed. It went on to a nice move and never would have hit my stop, but there is no way I'm risking loss after a 1.8R move. The miss was in not taking a couple of the follow on set ups as marked. Once again it was a lack of belief of continuation.
Charts are marked with a lot fewer arrows for possible trade areas due to filtering on the bigger charts.
7/7/15 Tuesday
Live Trades: 5 losses
Day’s P/L: -$16.99
Essentially took 5 break even trades today on four different instruments (QM, M6E, NG, ZN). In most cases I had enough courage to endure an initial pull back, then moved to BE quickly thinking the initial pull back would be the last. My lack of confidence in my performance of late made it difficult to hold these trades through multiple pull backs.
While not taking advantage of some good trades was disappointing, I was encouraged that 3 out of the 5 trades actually went somewhere. In the case of QM, a long ways.
Volatility was up today, making it one of those days where opportunities were everywhere and most worked out. It was definitely a day of what could have been. After missing out on so much and not taking full advantage of my trades, I was thinking about how trading will either make you tough or quit. Every day it seems I end the day frustrated and disappointed, and wake up the next day ready to do it again. I just hope I start to realize some success before my give-a-shitter gives out!
7/8/15 Wednesday
Live Trades: 2 winners
Day’s P/L: $150.26
A better day. Both trades on ZN. Tried to hold both for 2R, but price stalled and I wanted some gains, so I moved stops to 1R and was taken out both times at +1R.
Focusing more attention on the 3X charts to qualify an instrument for a pending trade is helping so far. Less anxiety and clearer picture of what is going on. Still passing on so many great opportunities, but overall happy with the day.
Placed one other marker that also worked out well. Marker and trade results:
3 wins
