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I think there are always opportunities. Yes some days move more than others but when I started trading without so many rules and just focused on price action and what the market is telling me, I didn't worry about lack of movement but just worked with what I had. Now I do trade a naturally slow market anyway, the 5-year note. I just think if you focus on trading well then things like how slow the market is moving become secondary. Just something to think about.
How about that Speith! How old is he, 22? Would you say he's having a faster start than Tiger did?
You make good points, and I will do more trading in slower markets when I have built up a cushion. It is harder and riskier, at least for me. Right now I am trying to wait for the times that are easier to trade. As you can see on the charts I do a lot of work during slow days. It is tempting to walk away from the screen and do something else, but you don't learn anything that way.
Spieth is the real deal. He has everything Tiger had except the firepower. It will be interesting to see if he can keep pace without the ability to dominate off the tee like Tiger could.
6/23/15 Tuesday
Live Trades: 1 loss
Day’s P/L: -$104.60
One trade, one loss on CL. The best trades were early, but I continue to be skittish about taking these trades. They work the best though. In hindsight it appears I missed some great opps on ZN.
Trade 1, CL: -10t. Good trade, looking for continuation to the upside after the strong move and base. Chopped around for a long time before I finally bailed. It looked doomed but ended up working.
Placed a lot of markers. Mixed results not providing me with a lot of confidence:
2 wins
5 losses
5 BE
I think this is wise. Remember that we have to ride out the slow times safely so we are ready to roll when the market picks back up. I think looking for trades with a little tighter risk couldn't hurt either, since you said most trades aren't hitting your first target. Might help to bring that target in a little closer. Good luck man.
No trades, no markers today. I was in watch mode. CL had some moves but not much that set up with my rules. ZN was once again a good mover. I really need to focus more on ZN. It has produced the best results for me so far since going live. 6E, GC, NG were in chop.
The only other instrument that moved was NQ after reaching the top of the range. From there it sold off pretty good but a lot of the base areas were sloppy so I didn’t trust them. I am looking at replacing NQ with YM because YM seems to telegraph its moves better and there is more order to the moves. Same tick value and same relative ATR for the day, just not as wild, at least not in the recent past.
The one positive takeaway for the day was that I took 6 trades. I am definitely opening up. Unfortunately, it was another lackluster day in most of the instruments so they did not produce.
Experimented with 200 tick chart on CL as opposed to the normal 800 tick chart while we are in this time of low volatility. I used the 800 tick for the big picture. This allowed me to reduce my risk to between 8 and 10 ticks. I felt bolder with the lower risk and thus entered 3 trades, but CL was super choppy again today so I did not have much luck. Only regretted one of the 3 trades:
Trade 1, CL: 0t: Large orders below, looking for price to attack them in a sell off like it does often after the open. Got to +9t then reversed
Trade2, CL: -9t: 2nd try going for those bids below. Entered too early according to the rules. Bad execution.
Trade 3, CL: 3rd short. Breakdown after a break down, but still wasn’t ready to go.
I’ll need to be careful with the 200 tick chart. Need to really pick my spots.
Had better luck on ZN. Took three trades:
Trade 1, ZN: +6t. Easy trade to hang on to for 1R.
Trade 2, ZN: -1t. Bailed around BE after it went nowhere for a long time. Ended up going somewhere but I was long gone.
Trade 3, ZN: Got caught in a price spike when I attempted to enter short on a limit order. It seems that 10:00 PST is an important time in ZN even if there is no scheduled news. I often see price spikes around this time. Not sure what that is. Definitely need to be more cautious during this time period from now on. In any case, I considered reversing after the spike because they often lead to a run, but I chickened out after the quick loss and being down $200 at the time. Mistake.
Not having very good fortune lately. It is a little disconcerting. Hopefully this is just a temporary moment when my edge is not performing under specific market conditions. There is the possibility that the edge was never really there in the first place, but I can definitely point to times earlier this year of higher volatility that produced winner after winner. I just need to make sure I don’t blow out before those conditions come back.
Once again showed a modest level of bravery charging the machine gun nests, but all it got me was shot. It feels like I’m bleeding out.
Two trades on CL:
Trade 1: +15t. Good textbook trade, took profits as it approached an HVN.
Trade 2: -15t. Attempted to jump on board the train again. Was one retracement too early, got stopped out, and did not have the guts to hop back on the real move. Good idea, good execution, too early.
Two trades on ZN:
Trade 1: -4t. Looking to catch the continuation move to new lows.
Trade 2: -4t. Same idea. Reached +4t where it stalled. I decided to be brave and hang through some retracement because I thought the trade had potential.
All four trades fit my criteria. Pretty good execution according to the rules. It’s been a tough week, but I am still only a couple trades from getting back on track. Haven’t done anything real stupid.
Didn't have a chance to post the weekly recap over the weekend so here it is...
Weekly Summary 6/22/15 to 6/26/15
Live Trades: 11, 2 winners, 9 losers
Week’s P/L: -$437.60
Starting balance for the week: $2890.25
Withdrawals for the week: $0
Deposits for the week: $0
Ending balance for the week: $2452.65
Beginning account balance from first live trade on 3/10/15: $3000.00
Total Withdrawals: $0
Total Deposits: $0
Total Gains/losses from 3/10/15: -$547.35
It was a rough week. Interesting how it is so much easier to lose money than to make money. Money is reluctant to enter an account, and then, with the slightest drop of the guard, flies out of the account like bats from under a bridge at dusk. We make choices all the time; go long or go short, stay in or get out. For whatever reason, if we are not fully committed, meticulously diligent, patiently cautious, we inevitably pick the wrong choice. What is that? One would think that, by sheer luck or chance, we would do the right thing every once in a while. But that’s not usually the way it works.
With the disappointing results this week, I decided to spend some time reading my journal from the beginning. There were several takeaways that I hope will help turn things around. We’re not yet in dire straits but the depth of the water is getting shallower!
1) The markets have been more difficult to trade recently. There is less volatility, and therefore less opportunity. Be ok with waiting for volatility to pick up, at least in a specific market.
2) Clarity is my friend, lack of clarity is my enemy. If it is not immediately evident what is going on, stay out. Be ok with passing on marginal trades that end up going somewhere without you.
3) Wait for markets that have an “open field” look. Avoid those that are fuzzy and choppy.
4) Be patient for price to come from “significant” areas: major highs/lows, major HVN/LVN, etc. Try to find areas where price has the potential to travel.
5) Sometime after going live I stopped trying to find the “true” channel. I used to find these by drawing parallel lines, often off the back side of swings. The break of a very well defined, symmetrical channel is significant. Focus once again on finding the true channel.
6) Some of the most reliable opportunities are when a well-defined larger channel is broken, followed by the break of a smaller channel in the same direction, especially if the smaller channel has back tested the larger channel.
7) Sometimes the demand or supply line of a larger channel can be “anticipated” and drawn before a new high or low is formed. This can be done by finding two swings off the back side, or two swings that are very close to each other in the beginning of the run. If price makes a series of higher lows or lower highs off these anticipated lines it is often a sign of strength or weakness, and a pending strong move.
8) When the break of a channel fails and returns significantly back into the channel, look for price to move in the original direction of the channel. It is likely that a new, larger channel is now forming.
9) When price breaks a trend line that has three or more touches it is significant.
10) In many cases my stops are probably too small for the structure. I do not intend to widen them. This means I need to be patient for areas that either, a) momentum is such that there is confidence that price will not back up much, or b) a small base has built upon a larger base so that the stop requirement is smaller.
I will be concentrating on these areas over the next few weeks.
The bad news is that I did not take advantage of some nice opportunities in the indexes. The good news is that I am bombing my driver. Made some swing changes over the past couple weeks. Now if I can only do the same with my trading…
Focused on finding the “true” channel today. It provided more clarity.
6/30/15 Tuesday
Live Trades: 2 losers
Day’s P/L: -$162.25
Another frustrating day. Took a couple of trades on ZN that were normally reliable set ups. Two full stops, then of course price took off. Once again right about direction, but too early with too tight of stops.
Later tried to take what would have been a successful CL trade but I was below margin so it didn’t trigger. All margins have gone up in the last two weeks while I was working off a different sheet. Also found out I don't have the margin to trade 6E
To compound it all, I failed to take advantage of the strong rally in YM through hesitation and disbelief.
