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Tap In's Corner
Started:November 23rd, 2014 (09:08 PM) by Tap In Views / Replies:34,383 / 839
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Tap In's Corner

Old March 10th, 2015, 02:53 PM   #141 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

First live trade. Worthy of its own post.

Naturally it was a loser, a spectacular loser at that. Perfectly top ticked it and got the direction exactly wrong. Trade was a little sloppy. It generally fit the bill for a legit trade according to my rules. Break of confirmed channel then retest and break of TL. Probably should have waited for a bit more confirmation on the break of the TL and a close of the entry bar. Got out early. Could have waited for my 15 tick stop to get hit for more pain, so that's a positive. -9t (net -$94.40)

In any case I am still alive and breathing. Not as bad as I built it up. It's like that first hit in the football game. It hurt a little but got me into it.

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Old March 10th, 2015, 09:47 PM   #142 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
Tap In's Avatar
 
Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received


Tap In View Post
Tomorrow:
-Take at least one live trade. Ok to cut it short for small gain or small loss just to get the ball rolling. Let it ride if it looks promising.
-Stay engaged all day
-Stay emotionally level

3/10/15 Tuesday
Live Trades: 1, -9t, net -$94.40
Sim Trades: 0

In my notes before the open I wrote:

“Today I will take at least one live trade. I have accepted the risk of losing $150-$170. I accept this risk because I believe I have a greater chance of making $150-$170 or more than losing it. This is based on my acquired skill and judgment at reading the market, and the discipline to wait for the highest probability opportunities.”

Mission accomplished. As fortune would dictate it was a losing trade. Awesome!

Not the greatest set up in CL because the signal bar did not break through the TL by very much. Should have waited on the next bar. Otherwise the set up was decent: Break of an established channel with a retest and smaller TL. Took loss early rather than wait on the full 15 tick stop.

The trade went 0 in my favor and 46 ticks against me overall (I was out of the trade by -9t). This is one of the stats I keep on every trade. It is sort of an MFE and MAE even well after the trade is closed. It helps me track whether my trades overall have any potential. I recommend it as a tool to analyze the quality and potential of trade selection.

Had a momentary flash of anger at the first live trade in eons being a loser, but quickly recovered. I will need to get a handle on this going forward.

Stayed engaged the whole session. There really weren’t a lot of set ups I was excited about today. NQ and CL were good movers but the set ups carried a bit too much risk. As often happens though, when these instruments break an area and resume the move they often go straight without basing up.

Charts annotated with possibilities

Tomorrow:
-Take at least one live trade, win or lose. Ok to exit early either way. Just continue to get the feet wet.
-Stay engaged
-Stay emotionally level. Accept the risk

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2015-03-10_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-03-10_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-03-10_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-03-10_nq_summary.png  
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Old March 11th, 2015, 01:01 AM   #143 (permalink)
Elite Member
Buenos Aires Argentina
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT, MT4, Sierra
Favorite Futures: S&P, Bonds, Crude, FX
 
Posts: 224 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 36 given, 206 received


Wow, big moment to shift from SIM to live. Congrats on making that leap in your journey, and more importantly having the discipline to train in SIM!

Quick question for you, I noticed the market profile has come off your charts. How are you finding your analysis with and without market profile?

Cumulative Delta also seems to be new compared to the beginning, how are you finding the GOMI CD? Thanks.

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Old March 11th, 2015, 06:02 AM   #144 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 3,476 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 24,957 given, 10,578 received
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Tap In View Post
In my notes before the open I wrote:

“Today I will take at least one live trade. I have accepted the risk of losing $150-$170. I accept this risk because I believe I have a greater chance of making $150-$170 or more than losing it. This is based on my acquired skill and judgment at reading the market, and the discipline to wait for the highest probability opportunities.”

Mission accomplished. As fortune would dictate it was a losing trade. Awesome!

Very nice. Congratulations.

Bob.

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Old March 11th, 2015, 01:35 PM   #145 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
Tap In's Avatar
 
Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

Futures Edge on FIO

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MacroNinja View Post
Wow, big moment to shift from SIM to live. Congrats on making that leap in your journey, and more importantly having the discipline to train in SIM!

Quick question for you, I noticed the market profile has come off your charts. How are you finding your analysis with and without market profile?

Cumulative Delta also seems to be new compared to the beginning, how are you finding the GOMI CD? Thanks.

Market profile/volume profile are some of my favorite tools. I use both daily profiles, and extended profiles over 1 day, 2 days, 5 days, 20 days, 180 days, 1 year.

Here is the Think or swim grid with profiles.

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Every day I start with a clean chart. The only automatically created lines are VWAP, EMA, pivots.

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Then I manually add regular trading hours midpoints, value areas, both high and low, based on the market and volume profiles. These are the horizontal lines.

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Then I draw trend lines and opening range.

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I am now ready to follow price action, drawing trend lines as they develop:

The only chart that does not have cumulative delta is NQ. I plan to add it and start following it. CD is particularly effective on CL. I haven't figured it out on NG or GC yet.

Thanks for your interest


Last edited by Tap In; March 11th, 2015 at 01:41 PM.
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Old March 11th, 2015, 08:31 PM   #146 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
Tap In's Avatar
 
Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received


Tap In View Post

Tomorrow:
-Take at least one live trade, win or lose. Ok to exit early either way. Just continue to get the feet wet.
-Stay engaged
-Stay emotionally level. Accept the risk

3/11/15 Wednesday
Live Trades: 1, -9t, net -$94.40
Sim Trades: 0

I was not able to pull the trigger on a trade today. Best opps were in gold and natural gas. For some reason, perhaps the slow nature of how these instruments play out, I am reluctant to go in. The time it takes for a trade to play out is nerve wracking for me at this juncture of live trading development. I am looking for quick payouts so I don’t have to sit through a lot of pain. Oil and NQ often deliver quick payouts. I need to come to grips with this as the opps on GC and NG are often very good.

A lot of opps, especially in NQ and CL are relatively extended as they break the TLs. The logical place for a stop is too far back so I tend to pass. But lately, even a 15 tick stop in many cases is in no danger of getting hit as price just keeps on motoring, often for a quick 50 ticks. A few of those would “buy” a lot of stop outs. This often happens on larger well defined channel breaks.

My fear is always that “this time” there will be a deep retracement knocking me out before resumption. This is why I pass on a lot of trades that work out nicely. I am looking for trades where a 15 tick stop makes sense. It will be nice some day when I can just “go for it” and take everything I see. That will mean risking some deeper daily draw downs.

This is one reason I am thinking of a combine, so that I can take trades with a little more abandon. We’ll see how using my own money goes for a while, keeping a combine as an option.

Charts annotated with possibilities

Tomorrow:
-Take at least one live trade, win or lose. Ok to exit early either way. Just continue to get the feet wet.
-Stay engaged
-Stay emotionally level. Accept the risk

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2015-03-11_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-03-11_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-03-11_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-03-11_nq_summary.png  
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Old March 11th, 2015, 08:45 PM   #147 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 3,476 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 24,957 given, 10,578 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Tap In View Post
My fear is always that “this time” there will be a deep retracement knocking me out before resumption. This is why I pass on a lot of trades that work out nicely. I am looking for trades where a 15 tick stop makes sense. It will be nice some day when I can just “go for it” and take everything I see. That will mean risking some deeper daily draw downs.

I want to commend you for being honest, and to let you know that I understand the difficulties you are facing. So do a lot of other people who follow this thread, I expect.

Stay with it. If you persevere, you will get where you want to be.

Bob.

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Old March 12th, 2015, 10:41 AM   #148 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
Tap In's Avatar
 
Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received


bobwest View Post
I want to commend you for being honest, and to let you know that I understand the difficulties you are facing. So do a lot of other people who follow this thread, I expect.

Stay with it. If you persevere, you will get where you want to be.

Bob.

Bob, I vote for you for #1 encourager on futures.io (formerly BMT)!

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Old March 12th, 2015, 11:10 AM   #149 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 3,476 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 24,957 given, 10,578 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Tap In View Post
Bob, I vote for you for #1 encourager on futures.io (formerly BMT)!

Aw, shucks.



Bob.

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Old March 13th, 2015, 12:36 AM   #150 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
Tap In's Avatar
 
Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received



Tap In View Post
Tomorrow:
-Take at least one live trade, win or lose. Ok to exit early either way. Just continue to get the feet wet.
-Stay engaged
-Stay emotionally level. Accept the risk

3/12/15 Thursday
Live Trades: 0
Sim Trades: 0

No trades today but followed the action well and put in some nice markers.

I am looking into QM (mini oil) as well as ZN and 6E as possibilities to trade. QM is thin but it does almost exactly mirror CL. There would be slippage issues but overall might be able to take the same trades at nearly half the risk.

ZN also shows promise. The movements are very orderly, with less back filling, and most trades based on my method would risk around $80. There is a lot of volume so adding contracts would not be a problem.

6E would not reduce leverage but it is another instrument that under the right conditions has some nice movement.

I am envisioning a core group of NQ, QM and ZN all trading with one contract with around $75 of risk per trade. This might make more sense than the $150 per trade I am now risking. Then I can go to the larger contracts or add contracts when the account has grown. We’ll see. I’ll need to do a little more thinking on this. Not trying to add to complexity. Just trying to find the right mix.

Housekeeping: Yesterday, Wednesday, I did not take any trades and therefore did not lose $94. That was copied and pasted from Tuesday.

Tomorrow:
-1st trade will be live
-Look at ZN and 6E as possible instruments to add to the mix
-Stay engaged
-Stay emotionally level. Accept the risk

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2015-03-12_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-03-12_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-03-12_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-03-12_nq_summary.png  
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