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I watched the latest webinar by FuturesTrader71 and really liked the idea of the Opening Swing rather than time-based opening ranges. It makes more sense to use points where price actually reversed during the manic of the open rather than using arbitrary time periods that may or may not reflect actual support and resistance.
Therefore I will be making a slight change to my charts and jettisoning the 2 minute and 45 minute opening ranges for the opening swing, as denoted by black dotted lines.
2/5/15 Thursday
Live Trades: 0
Sim Trades: 6, +19t
Sat and watched for most of the day and took a lot of scratch trades (4). Missed the big move up in oil but the patterns were a little bigger so I was a little reluctant to go for it with my little 15t stop.
Waited a long time for NQ to move at the end of the day, finally entered, then proceeded to exit at +3 ticks on a minor pull back in a 35 tick move. Oh well, made the correct trade and some ticks today.
Stats:
Successes: took 1/7
Failures: took 2/8
Neutral: took 3/6
Potential +90 ticks
Still liking using the larger charts for context. Watched the latest Futures Trader71 Webinar and will begin to implement the opening swing rather than time based opening range. Some prelim look back shows this has some promise for context.
Leaning toward being a little more conservative with entries, wait for high confidence entries and start making consistent gains, then transition to real money. The exercise to take all set-ups served its purpose for loosening up my trigger finger, but draw downs can be quite large, too large for my tastes at this time. Continue to mark hypothetical trades to gauge quality of judgment and potential in each day's trading.
Tomorrow:
-Utilize the opening swing for context
-Utilize larger charts for directional guidance and changes, smaller for entry
-Getting a little sloppy and lazy about marking things up in real time with colored arrows, so get back to it.
-Take the high quality trades.
-Good attitude. Don't sweat missed trades
2/6/15 Wednesday
Live Trades: 0
Sim Trades: 2, +26t (one trade was an accidental entry. Why do they always end up losing?)
Enjoyed watching how price reacted to the opening swing throughout the day. It will take a bit of getting used to but has promise for context. It definitely slowed me down, which is not a bad thing.
Stayed with the larger chart channels and TLs for directional bias. Impulsive, wishful counter trend trading seems to be a thing of the past. I shudder to think about how many times I tried to turn the market around!
Took one high quality trade for +30t. I wouldn’t be disappointed if this happened every day.
Maintained a level, peaceful attitude. Of course the one trade played out fairly quickly so there wasn’t time to turn up the heat.
Stats:
Successes: took 1 of 7
Failures: took 0 of 5
Neutral: took 0 of 2
Potential +135t
As usual passed on some nice trades but also passed on a couple losers. Overall identifying better trade areas with my context tools: larger chart channels and opening swing.
Start of live trading. First trade of the day will be live. Then decide to continue or go to sim. No live trades today and therefore no sim trades.
Not much going on today, didn’t have my head in it so didn’t even mark any areas. Probably had something to do with reluctance to take that first live trade, but really didn’t see much that was interesting.
Extra focus on opening swing definitely adds a new perspective to structure. Whether this is helpful or hurting remains to be seen. Will continue to monitor.
Tomorrow:
-Continue to monitor opening swing and its effect on price
-Larger chart for channels
-Mark areas of interest with colored arrows. Get into it tomorrow!
-1st trade will be a live trade.
-Confident, calm attitude.
No trades again today. The OEC server was down until 8:00 so I missed most of the good action. There were a couple opps later but I chose not to take live late in the day.
Marked one trade in real time with an arrow on oil that would have worked for 30t.
I am seeing some value in the opening swing.
Tomorrow will be the same goals:
-Continue to monitor opening swing and its effect on price
-Larger chart for channels
-Mark areas of interest with colored arrows. Get into it tomorrow!
-1st trade will be a live trade.
-Confident, calm attitude.
Once again did not see a trade that sparked my interested for my first live trade. Waiting patiently for the right looking set up to give myself the best chance of a good start. It might take a while but no need to push it.
Tomorrow will be the same goals:
-Continue to monitor opening swing and its effect on price
-Larger chart for channels
-Mark areas of interest with colored arrows. Get into it tomorrow!
-1st trade will be a live trade.
-Confident, calm attitude.
Once again, did not see a trade area that really turned me on to take a live trade. Sticking to the plan of the first trade of the day being live so no trades live or sim today. Marked some areas of interest in real time but nothing much panned out.
Good thing I didn’t put real money to my ideas today because most failed.
Oil was a mover but the price action was one way up then one way down so I couldn’t find a reasonable place to enter. Then it chopped to a new high in waves in such a way that was really only recognizable to me in hindsight. One could try to trade that type of action and lose most of the time, but on a day like today it would have made good money. It was neat to see price bounce off the opening swing like it did though.
Good news is that I didn’t lose money. Bad news is that my trade ideas for the most part didn’t work out. I am still looking for a little more orderly movement with energy before I will be comfortable putting real money to it.
Marked areas:
Successes: took 0/1
Failures: took 0/4
Neutral: took 0/1
Potential -30t
Tomorrow will be the same goals:
-Continue to monitor opening swing and its effect on price
-Larger chart for channels
-Mark areas of interest with colored arrows. Get into it tomorrow!
-1st trade will be a live trade.
-Confident, calm attitude.
Giving thought to a continuous combine but not sure it is right for me.
Pros:
1) When funded, they take on the risk of a black swan event that could potentially wipe out a significant portion of life savings.
2) Having a well defined and coveted goal to shoot for
3) Max risk is the monthly fee until passing
4) Enforced discipline, though discipline does not seem to be an issue at this time
5) Keep up with my best buddy who passed on his first try and is now funded. We're competitive!
Cons:
1) 80/20 split
2) Less advantageous tax treatment
3) $85/mo fee per instrument. My four instruments would cost $340/mo. I would need to drop a couple until I was well into the money.
4) Long road to becoming funded. 3 major steps: pass combine, pass live trader prep, build a cushion in first 10 funded trade days.
5) Rules could be stifling
On the pro side 1 and 2 are most significant. On the con side 1 and 3 are most significant. I can easily fund myself for now but the potential of a black swan event keeps popping up in my mind. The world is in a weird place right now and I feel anything could happen at any time. Woe to those who are in the market when/if it does.
Another lackluster day. No energy in three of the markets. Not seeing many confidence inducing trade areas. Follow through low
NG was the mover but it started so inauspiciously that it would have taken a leap of faith to take advantage. I suppose the clues were the bounces off the opening swing high. Need to pay attention to this.
Discipline still good, not taking trades just “because”. However, I have backed off marking areas as well. Some of it has to do with watching the opening swing, which has offered a new perspective on real time market status. This has me imagining fewer directional changes, not a bad thing. Also, now that I am trading live and being cautious, that caution has transferred to marking areas. I want to have a good ratio of successes to failures to feel confident about jumping in with real money.
The lack of trading does not have to build pressure. Be patient.
Marked areas:
Successes: took 0/1
Failures: took 0/1
Neutral: took 0/1
