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ES Journal (Sim)

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  #1 (permalink)
 lasecondababele 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TSTcombine
Trading: CL, ES, FESX
 
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Posts: 214 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 182 given, 375 received

Hi, first post, first journal, maybe I'll explain the walk that took me here in a future post but right now I just gotta owe up to what I promised myself and put black on white my failures and my successes.

Any insight, suggestion or comment is very welcome, I like ALL external viewpoints, especially contrarian ones.

Trading ES and using doubleEMA to give me signals on a 5 min chart.
One contract.
Trading times may vary, I'll trade whenever there is sufficient volatility and a clear trend (or wide enough range)
I keep another chart and look at pure price action, switch back and forth with 15min chart and use signals to confirm suspicions.

So I wake up this morning and I bring up a chart, I first need to resolve a technical issue with NT, it keeps on bringing up blank charts until I reset the data.
Once it's up and running I immediately see the ES on a nice bear tend on a 5 min chart, it followed a bull leg and it's almost breaking out of the prior low.
I enter a trade and I immediately make a mistake, I go long because I'm groggy with sleep. I reverse losing one tick and hope for the best.
I go back to a 15 min chart and I see the last was a lower high, then it broke out in a bear spike, attempted a reversal, failed, so I'm measuring a move down equal to the first leg, down to 2026, or to test prior lo at 2025.
I need to go to work so ideally I would leave it on and try and take profits at 2026.50 because it's the first chart reading I do.
But when I see it's touching the upper part of the channel I really just ant to take two ticks of profits and go.

Too bad I focused on the 1 minute chart and totally mistook the bull flag for a separate trend.
Got stopped out brutally.



Good: did some analysis even if wrong, did not move stops or got out early to take easy ticks
Bad: Jumped in way too early, need to look better at what is happening, especially on longer time frames.
Result for the day: 2 trades, -2 points
Result so far: 2 trades, -2 points

Had a closer look this evening coming home from work, the trend were clear as day.
Feel like trading some more but today after 18:00 it's stuck in a very tight side channel. It's midnight here so I'm going to bed.

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  #3 (permalink)
 lasecondababele 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TSTcombine
Trading: CL, ES, FESX
 
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Posts: 214 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 182 given, 375 received


1) First trade I sold according to got knows what, in the middle of what leter as identified as a bull flag.
And what's up with that super tight stop, what was I trying to validate/invalidate?
Lesson: trend reverals are rare.
Result: -1.50

2) Second trade was obviously revenge trading.
Reasoned, as I was expecting the small bear trend to continue or at least do a bear wedge, but I still executed it poorly, got all excited seeing a big red bar on a 5 minutes chart and entered before the bar closed (turned into a doji).
Stopped out.
Result: -1

3) Sold the pullback when it touched the resistance micro trend, thinking the previous bear spike was CLEARLY a trend reversal because it poked through a half assed support line I drew on the basis of two lows at the start of the bul trend.
Punished big time.

I need to put more confidence in trends that have been going on across two days.
Result: -1

4) Bought the spike with trend, arrived late to the party, knowing it was losing steam.
Sold it as soon as I saw red after the doji.
Bad. I chickened out, I should have waited for the measured move up.

Thank you for being such a forgiving audience, I love you all.
Resut: +0.75

Obviously the measured move started with a spike, which I bought at the top, like all the other suckers.
Looked at other time-frames and saw a doji on the three minutes that put profit taking likely two ticks higher than my entry. Took two ticks and thought better see if it goes sideways for a 10 bars or so.

BTW that was a huge spike and I only got 1.25 out of it. Something is wrong with the way I do things.
Also, I am not following any of the rules I set out at the beginning. Yay!
Result: +0.50

5) Bought at the top of a 15 minutes breakout spike, with trend, broke two days high, it will correct and then continue higher.
Textbook stop one tick below breakout bar open. (8 points I would cringe risking with real money, but I am following the rules for once)
I'm tired of micromanaging so this stays on for a couple of hours, see how it goes.

6) Added one to my long on a pullback. Again a textbook move. Exited one on previous high to lock in some profit, worried about the forming double top and needed an ego boost I guess.

Result: +2.25

Losing my patience and this looks like it's turning into a trading range, so I'm getting out my last long with one tick gain.
Result: +0.25

Nerve wrecking day.
Trades for the day: 7
Result for the day: +0.25

The Good: I'm proud I've followed what I learned from Al Brooks
The Bad: it's clear I am not as good as I thought executing and sticking to my own rules.


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  #4 (permalink)
 lasecondababele 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TSTcombine
Trading: CL, ES, FESX
 
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Posts: 214 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 182 given, 375 received

So I come home and the good stuff for the day has finished, major bull leg up finishes at 2 CET, not enough time for a measured move I guess, plus (in hindsight) it starts trading between the open and the close of prior day.
So I think well I can scalp a few points, I have zero experience and the indicators I have up are actually counter-productive to the task but I'll be damned if the thought crossed my mind. I swear it's not hubris that will blow my account, simple mindlessness will. Also I start right about when the channel starts making its move up. Did not see that coming.

Shorted +0.50
Long +0.75
Shorted (right on the measured move up) -2.25
Total for the day 3 trades -1.00

Then I sit down and read some Al Brooks and here's the passage verbatim on page 397 "with neither the scalping nor the swinging bears now shorting and the bulls not taking profits, the market usually runs for about a measured move up, equal to about the height of the trading range". Amen, brother.

Also, NT crashed on me twice today, and I have a Pending Submit order that I can't seem to be able to cancel. Suggestions welcome!

Also, I learned trading stops for half an hour between 3 and 3:30. Neat! I've got to find out why is that.


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  #5 (permalink)
 lasecondababele 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TSTcombine
Trading: CL, ES, FESX
 
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Posts: 214 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 182 given, 375 received

As usual I come home, fire up a chart and want to get in the midst of it, but today I have waited just a little longer.

Looked good because it was oversold on the 15 minutes, there was an impending EMA crossover on the 10 minutes, so I went long on the 3 minute chart after a solid bull bar signal.
I had visions of a mad bull run until I realised we were one hour from the close, so I switched plan and went for a 4 ticks scalp, even though I should have bought one tick above the high 2 @ 2058.25 where the arrow is.
My protective stop was below the most recent low a 2055 exactly. Everyone can scalp one point with a five point stop, that's a bad habit.
I still believe it will continue going up, at least 2071 to test the recent high, let's see if the morning proves me wrong and if the original stop at 2055 would have been run over before reaching the target.
The reason is the bull trend has been going on for a while, the recent leg down looks like a correction, and I entered where I did because a high 2 is a solid signal according to Brooks (page 410 or something, as per today's reading)

All bets are welcome!

Result: 1 trade, +1.00

Total so far 13 Trades, -1.75


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afterthoughts:
The Pending submit trade was an NT glitch, it was enough to reset the Sim account and it went away.
I keep on forgetting about the close of day, and that trade stops between Fri 17:15 and Sunday 18:00, I've got to pay more attention to that.

I've also been thinking I need to stop looking at higher time frame charts, for two reasons: one, it's distracting and I am not proficient enough to keep all that data together, and two, I could not afford stops wider than 5-6 ticks. I've got to stick to 1-3-5 minute charts. Question: Is it realistic to trade ES on those terms?

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  #6 (permalink)
waqarshah
London, UK
 
 
Posts: 15 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 3 received

hi there-also a UK novice ES SIm trader- have you thought about moving away from time based charts to tick charts- i am making a lot less mistakes using tick charts...

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  #7 (permalink)
 lasecondababele 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TSTcombine
Trading: CL, ES, FESX
 
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Posts: 214 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 182 given, 375 received

Thank you!
I haven't tried tick bars yet, definitely will see how they work.
I'm interested, in what way are they helping you make less mistakes, precisely?
What kind of signals do you trade off of?

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  #8 (permalink)
 lasecondababele 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TSTcombine
Trading: CL, ES, FESX
 
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Posts: 214 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 182 given, 375 received

As previously mentioned, I've been reading Al Brooks, and he talks a lot about breakouts and reversal patterns. Now I know that he goes out of his way to explain how reversals fail 80% of the times, but for some reason the signals stuck with me and now that's all I see...


Is it me?

BTW, I've just wiped out my first account. Two days, baby.
More on that in the next post.

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  #9 (permalink)
 kburks 
Boynton Beach
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES,TF,CL
 
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Posts: 202 since Mar 2012
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lasecondababele View Post
As usual I come home, fire up a chart and want to get in the midst of it, but today I have waited just a little longer.

Looked good because it was oversold on the 15 minutes, there was an impending EMA crossover on the 10 minutes, so I went long on the 3 minute chart after a solid bull bar signal.
I had visions of a mad bull run until I realised we were one hour from the close, so I switched plan and went for a 4 ticks scalp, even though I should have bought one tick above the high 2 @ 2058.25 where the arrow is.
My protective stop was below the most recent low a 2055 exactly. Everyone can scalp one point with a five point stop, that's a bad habit.
I still believe it will continue going up, at least 2071 to test the recent high, let's see if the morning proves me wrong and if the original stop at 2055 would have been run over before reaching the target.
The reason is the bull trend has been going on for a while, the recent leg down looks like a correction, and I entered where I did because a high 2 is a solid signal according to Brooks (page 410 or something, as per today's reading)

All bets are welcome!

Result: 1 trade, +1.00

Total so far 13 Trades, -1.75


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afterthoughts:
The Pending submit trade was an NT glitch, it was enough to reset the Sim account and it went away.
I keep on forgetting about the close of day, and that trade stops between Fri 17:15 and Sunday 18:00, I've got to pay more attention to that.

I've also been thinking I need to stop looking at higher time frame charts, for two reasons: one, it's distracting and I am not proficient enough to keep all that data together, and two, I could not afford stops wider than 5-6 ticks. I've got to stick to 1-3-5 minute charts. Question: Is it realistic to trade ES on those terms?

May i ask what ma indicator you are using, looks like ma cross that changes colors.
Thanks.........

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  #10 (permalink)
 lasecondababele 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TSTcombine
Trading: CL, ES, FESX
 
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Posts: 214 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 182 given, 375 received


Hi kburks,
it is indeed a double MA set to 10 and 25, the indicator was found on this website.
Here you go

DoubleMA.zip

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  #11 (permalink)
 lasecondababele 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TSTcombine
Trading: CL, ES, FESX
 
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Posts: 214 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 182 given, 375 received

Yes today I'm trading GBP/USD, on bigger timeframes for one reason: Big Mike's introductory webinar. If you haven't watched it go do so now. Platform changed to IG on a demo account.



Solid trend, has gone on for two days, on the two hour chart, this is the first two candle pullback.
Looks like it's given already three massive pushes down so it might lose steam and break the first trend line, but it should go down at least to test the double bottom from 14 november and 19th november.
Signs of previous resistance between 15620-15630, so if it repeats the pattern it might bounce up to 15700-15720 before it tests weekly low.
Current level is at its lowest in years, there is space for it to bounce back to major trend line before breaking the twice tested low.

One thing I notice with FX different from ES is that the with-trend movements are sudden and deep, while the pullbacks develop across a longer time frame and tend to have long wicks, the smaller the timeframe the longer the wick. Half an hour of with trend movement, followed by three hours of pullback
Short @ 15635
Stop @ 15667, just above second to last swing high (current low has not surpassed previous low, might lower the stop when it does
Target @ 15597
Capital exposure $31
Potential reward $30
1/1 ratio against breaking a trend 2 days long.
For some reason the demo lets me play with 50cents per point, but the real account minimum bet is 1. Let's look at the real world.



That 2 days trend line of earlier has been pierced now, a major bear trend still in place, and the historical bottom is still there. Looks like it'll go up before it goes down.
Short @ 15613 In the context of the previous move, a pullback seems very likely, the bottom has been tested for a third time @ 15985, dame a doji and a small bear bar with a long head. That could have been the last pullback and I might have missed it, but it looks like it could consolidate for days before a big move in either direction.
Target @ 15650 Difficult to set a target, so conservatively the lowest of previous pullbacks.
Stop @ 15577 lower than previous three bottoms because FX are dragons and wil burn all your stops.

Again 1/1 ratio but the probabilities are pretty good.
Capital exposure $35
Potential reward $37

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  #12 (permalink)
 lasecondababele 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TSTcombine
Trading: CL, ES, FESX
 
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Posts: 214 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 182 given, 375 received

Two previous trades both hit targets. Feels good.



EUR/USD
Nice bear channel formed in the last two days, sold the pullback after seeing two strong bear bars.
38 pts risk
50 pts reward
Taking profits at the same level of previous low test of channel, just in case it decides to double bottom and revert to the underlying long term bull trend.



USD/JPY
Huge trend up lasting for months, nice bull support line unbroken for about a month, going up at the same speed.
The most recent pullback brings it as near to support as possible, a bit worried about long wicks but they've shown up in recent weeks during pullbacks so I can rationalise.
Top @11898 from 20th november was pierced by 25 points today and then made a higher low so that's good.
Stop just below previous low at support level.
Tentative target at the lower high of the two channels formed @11986. Buy and hold until I see how the trend develops, if it flattens out or what.
About 86 points of exposure, 158 points of potential reward.
This is the first trade that I feel completely happy about, as it has a reliable set up, 2/1 R/R and a good entry execution.

I feel more calm when I look at longer time frames. More time to think. The trades I'm taking are in simulation, but if I were to put real money they would mostly be below $50 of exposure. Sure I'd hate losing that small money too.
I think I need to work on that first.

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  #13 (permalink)
 lasecondababele 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TSTcombine
Trading: CL, ES, FESX
 
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Posts: 214 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 182 given, 375 received



Spotted a bear trend that has been going on for a week, part of a larger bear trend.
It is an accelleration of the trend so I'm not counting on it to go on for too long.
The price has made a lower high and I'm hoping for a lower low to appear soon, as it's been consolidating on the higher side of the channel (maybe testing the previous low before the bull leg?) for two days and then sold off sharply. Some resistance from the bulls in the form of a doji, destroyed by a fat bear candle after it.

Stop @ 9574, above previous high
Target @ 9449, very conservative, if I see some solid bear moves I might let it run.



First time I play with silver. Looks like there's a solid bear trend, on for months, the line drawn has been valid for 5 months. A conflicting bull line has supported price for a couple of months, and we're approaching convergence. Some atypical volatility can be seen in the week. I'm betting on the stronger trend to resume. Chances are good, payout is awesome.

Shorted @ 1627
Stop @ 1683, at the previous high it's a logical choice, although with the volatility seen of recent, it inspires less confidence than it normally would.
Target @ 1475 because I know nothing about silver, so a conservative undershoot for the test of previous low seems reasonable.

Best of all, I could afford this in real life, wth an exposure of about $25

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