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ES Journal (Sim)
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ES Journal (Sim)

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: TSTcombine
Favorite Futures: CL, ES, FESX
 
lasecondababele's Avatar
 
Posts: 213 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 181 given, 371 received

No time to explain, get in the chopper!

Yes today I'm trading GBP/USD, on bigger timeframes for one reason: Big Mike's introductory webinar. If you haven't watched it go do so now. Platform changed to IG on a demo account.

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Solid trend, has gone on for two days, on the two hour chart, this is the first two candle pullback.
Looks like it's given already three massive pushes down so it might lose steam and break the first trend line, but it should go down at least to test the double bottom from 14 november and 19th november.
Signs of previous resistance between 15620-15630, so if it repeats the pattern it might bounce up to 15700-15720 before it tests weekly low.
Current level is at its lowest in years, there is space for it to bounce back to major trend line before breaking the twice tested low.

One thing I notice with FX different from ES is that the with-trend movements are sudden and deep, while the pullbacks develop across a longer time frame and tend to have long wicks, the smaller the timeframe the longer the wick. Half an hour of with trend movement, followed by three hours of pullback
Short @ 15635
Stop @ 15667, just above second to last swing high (current low has not surpassed previous low, might lower the stop when it does
Target @ 15597
Capital exposure $31
Potential reward $30
1/1 ratio against breaking a trend 2 days long.
For some reason the demo lets me play with 50cents per point, but the real account minimum bet is 1. Let's look at the real world.

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That 2 days trend line of earlier has been pierced now, a major bear trend still in place, and the historical bottom is still there. Looks like it'll go up before it goes down.
Short @ 15613 In the context of the previous move, a pullback seems very likely, the bottom has been tested for a third time @ 15985, dame a doji and a small bear bar with a long head. That could have been the last pullback and I might have missed it, but it looks like it could consolidate for days before a big move in either direction.
Target @ 15650 Difficult to set a target, so conservatively the lowest of previous pullbacks.
Stop @ 15577 lower than previous three bottoms because FX are dragons and wil burn all your stops.

Again 1/1 ratio but the probabilities are pretty good.
Capital exposure $35
Potential reward $37

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  #12 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: TSTcombine
Favorite Futures: CL, ES, FESX
 
lasecondababele's Avatar
 
Posts: 213 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 181 given, 371 received

More FX, just because I liked what the charts were doing.

Two previous trades both hit targets. Feels good.

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EUR/USD
Nice bear channel formed in the last two days, sold the pullback after seeing two strong bear bars.
38 pts risk
50 pts reward
Taking profits at the same level of previous low test of channel, just in case it decides to double bottom and revert to the underlying long term bull trend.

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USD/JPY
Huge trend up lasting for months, nice bull support line unbroken for about a month, going up at the same speed.
The most recent pullback brings it as near to support as possible, a bit worried about long wicks but they've shown up in recent weeks during pullbacks so I can rationalise.
Top @11898 from 20th november was pierced by 25 points today and then made a higher low so that's good.
Stop just below previous low at support level.
Tentative target at the lower high of the two channels formed @11986. Buy and hold until I see how the trend develops, if it flattens out or what.
About 86 points of exposure, 158 points of potential reward.
This is the first trade that I feel completely happy about, as it has a reliable set up, 2/1 R/R and a good entry execution.

I feel more calm when I look at longer time frames. More time to think. The trades I'm taking are in simulation, but if I were to put real money they would mostly be below $50 of exposure. Sure I'd hate losing that small money too.
I think I need to work on that first.

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  #13 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: TSTcombine
Favorite Futures: CL, ES, FESX
 
lasecondababele's Avatar
 
Posts: 213 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 181 given, 371 received


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Spotted a bear trend that has been going on for a week, part of a larger bear trend.
It is an accelleration of the trend so I'm not counting on it to go on for too long.
The price has made a lower high and I'm hoping for a lower low to appear soon, as it's been consolidating on the higher side of the channel (maybe testing the previous low before the bull leg?) for two days and then sold off sharply. Some resistance from the bulls in the form of a doji, destroyed by a fat bear candle after it.

Stop @ 9574, above previous high
Target @ 9449, very conservative, if I see some solid bear moves I might let it run.

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First time I play with silver. Looks like there's a solid bear trend, on for months, the line drawn has been valid for 5 months. A conflicting bull line has supported price for a couple of months, and we're approaching convergence. Some atypical volatility can be seen in the week. I'm betting on the stronger trend to resume. Chances are good, payout is awesome.

Shorted @ 1627
Stop @ 1683, at the previous high it's a logical choice, although with the volatility seen of recent, it inspires less confidence than it normally would.
Target @ 1475 because I know nothing about silver, so a conservative undershoot for the test of previous low seems reasonable.

Best of all, I could afford this in real life, wth an exposure of about $25

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