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Killer webinar, the title intrigued me, and am happy to see that a lot of my same philosophies line up with his. The 9 instincts are spot on.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Two eco reports out this morning with FOMC later. Started the day needing a good reason to trade, never got it so I stood aside. Small range with little opportunity. Success.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Another good day today. Felt very in sync with the market this morning, hope that continues. Was hoping for one more push higher that would have gotten my furthest profit target, but it didn't happen. Walking away from the day feeling good about my trading, I have found, is the most critical aspect to my success. Following my process, keeping my emotions level, being super focused. Profits just tend to follow when these line up during the day.
I have two days to trade before my combine ends. I am about $440 down from the breakeven level, and if I do not get close to break even I will probably cancel this one, and then restart next Monday. I see no reason to start a new month in the red when the price is the same. I will continue to try to trade well through the next two days, and have a plan going forward regardless of the outcome. Either way even though I am losing, on my good days I am reading the market, and trading better than I ever have before. It gives me hope that I should beat the combine in the next month, as long as market conditions do not deteriorate significantly from here on out.
I was originally using R1/S1 as my furthest target, which has left much to be desired in the low vol environment. So I switched things up a bit going forward. I am now using overnight low/high, and sometimes Yday VWAP as my intermediate target. This helps me frame the day quite well right off the bat, as I instantly see if we are moving towards or away from value, and we hit these values quite consistently intraday which helps me have very achievable targets. Plus as a bonus(seems obvious in hindsight) we obviously cannot have a trend day without a breakout/continuation beyond the overnight high/low. So when we fail at one of these levels in line with the trend, and we can get on the other side of VWAP, then I will start to target the opposite levels as a full reversal becomes quite likely. Either way I can make money with it.
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Today was one of those days. Failure at the overnight high brought us down to VWAP(which I failed to profit by not adjusting my stop correctly). We had a nice double bottom at VWAP, and a breakout of the 5 minute countertrend line. This falls in line with my criteria for entry so I got in. Never got a good enough pull back to add to, but nailed the top of the swing by taking profit at confluence(HTF down trendline, CVN, Monthly -1SD). This move higher broke through Yday VWAP so I was in full on trend reversal mode, looking for higher but reachable target(s). Got back in near the low of the pull back just above daily +1SD, and had a sweet move higher. Never got an add there either as it was straight up. Held through the pull back, looked to be consolidating for another nice push higher. When that failed I got out ending the day.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Market clarity is improving each day, and this improves my conviction. Another nice morning leaving me with a smile on my face. It feels good to be feeling confident again. Final targets hit today. Once I get funded I am going to find @Inletcap and kiss that guy. No doubt he helped me find my rhythm, and I am not sure how long it would have taken me to get to this point. Not trying to be cocky, it is just such an extraordinary feeling to see myself begin to trade the way I always felt was possible.
It is my anniversary weekend coming up, and it will be nice to take some time to reflect over this last month. I know I still must continue to work hard every day to become a better trader. The good Lord has blessed me with the desire to do this, and I plan to make the most of it.
Quite a few days now I am ending up with around 40 points profit floating PnL, and I am considering ending my day at that until I have completed the combine and FTP. Some days I give up a considerable part of that(like yesterday) if my furthest target is not hit. I would only need about 6 days of that to complete the combine vs. swinging for the fences every day. Seems reasonable to use to accomplish my goal.
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So this morning we were oscillating around the Monthly -1SD, after bouncing yesterday from Yearly VWAP. This gives me my line in the sand, and my larger targets. Higher and we are probably headed to Monthly VWAP, lower we are headed to Yearly VWAP and the lows of the last swing. All reachable targets based on recent volatility.
Overnight we broke some highs(more confirmation of an intermediate uptrend) with a pull back and bounce off of yesterday's VWAP(very bullish). We moved back above Daily VWAP and proceeded to pull back nicely to it. With the daily VWAP, and M -1SD just below combined with the overnight high quite a ways above us, I had all the makings of a great R:R trade. So I scaled in two contracts near VWAP, and rode that baby to our first profit target.
I did scale out one contract at a recent high and Daily +1SD just in case we failed there, and it improved my basis. Scaled back in at a breakout higher(which I don't usually do, but felt good about at the time) and took that to resistance for another quick profit.
Market did not hold as I scaled in another contract at support, and then for whatever reason I thought I would ditch my core and re-add at VWAP. Well you can guess how that went, never got entry, and had to add much higher. So potentially my profit for the day could have been a deal greater, maybe 25% more. With Ctrend line broken, and large buy volume coming into the market I scaled in two contracts quickly. Placed my large targets, with my stop at a good place, and let the trade ride. IF I had walked away both targets would have been hit perfectly, but of course I have to tinker(cause it feels good to get money off the table). Still very happy with the outcome.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Wow, what an almost perfect day again! 1 point away from hitting the highs of the day, it actually hit it just never got filled, which was totally my fault by the way.
After a crazy morning range, I didn't think I was going to get the opportunity to get my account back to breakeven this morning. So after I took a shot at a killer R:R trade to the upside, I went all in at 3 contracts, set my targets and stop, then walked away. Either I would have a 20 point loss, or I would have an outsized 40+ point gain.
After checking again an hour later I found the first two targets filled, with the last target touched but not filled. The reason why this was my fault is because it should have been inside the overnight high which it was not, and it should have been at least two points inside the R1 pivot which it was not. Either one of those would have caused the target to be hit within a few points of the high. So I had to exit 12 points beneath it, next time.
So now instead of ending the 1st combine month with a small profit, I am ending with a small loss. Either way not a big deal. What is most important is that I have recovered almost $800 in losses within a 5 day period. Will start trading again next Monday. I will try to post my combine report tonight.
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So we had a nice run up the last couple of days, and appeared to be potentially taking a break from that trend this morning. After a spike higher overnight, we moved lower all the way down to 120m trend support. It looked like we had broken the 30m trend, and so with us now below VWAP, even though we had broken the large countertrend line to the upside, I thought a short at VWAP would be a good place to be if we broke lower(as I always trade with the 30m trend, while the 120m is in the back of my mind.
I was also aware that the break of this trendline was also a potential break out on the 120m time frame. So for two hours we sat in a 10 point range. After another attempt at the down side, D-1SD held the market and we double bottomed there. Momentum started to creep back up to VWAP, and at this point I decided I no longer wanted to be short. So of course it moved right back down to the lows.
At this point I thought there is no way it is going lower after everything that had transpired, and if it did it would probably break lower. At this point we were at the best R:R I had seen all day so I got long, with plans to reverse if the lows were broken. We went right up to VWAP and broke one point above the previous 5m high, which is where I had my 2nd entry. This put my basis below VWAP which is where I wanted to be if we broke higher, again not much risk on the trade overall due to my first entry. Well after the second entry we moved lower, and this is where I added the third contract which is my max position size for the combine.
All or nothing I thought, closed my screen after adjusting targets. If I would have stayed and managed the trade I assume I would have caught my third target error. I HAD to walk away though lol. Very happy going into the weekend with a good stride.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Excited about the fact that even though I got off to a rough start, note AVG winning day vs. AVG losing day. Risk management on point thus far.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Jotted something down this morning that I wanted to document here: I think my ability to find conviction in direction with less information, combined with my ability to find lower risk/high reward opportunities has helped contribute greatly to my success as of late. So many aspects of trading fall under the description of "Simple, but not easy". I know for the longest time I heard that saying thrown around the forum, but could never quite wrap my head around what the heck that meant.
As I progress I continue to cut out the excess. Sometimes I get bogged down with new research that looks important at first, only to find that it is taking me down an unnecessary path. I think part of the reason that screen time is so important, is just to help identify instinctually what the market is trying to do. In my case I focus on two things, trend continuation, and major trend reversals. In either case I am always trying to trade with what I perceive to be the dominant HTF trend, never against. Maybe that will one day change as I am always learning and growing, but for me that is just not where the easy money is, and that is exactly where I want to be.
That is exactly what my trading feels like nowadays, easy money. No longer fighting the dominant trend, as long as my stops are in the right place, the market seems to constantly move in my direction, and dump money in my lap. My goal is to always be in the market flow, and that takes a lot of focus, and forcing myself to just get out of the way sometimes.
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Ideally to achieve my full potential, I really need to be trading three contracts. It is actually killing my ability to hold my runner as long as I need to due to potentially giving back a huge chunk of profit if we reverse intraday. I am actually allowed to trade three contracts in the combine, but not in FTP or once I get funded until I hit a certain profit target in the scaling plan. To me this is a bit silly, but either way I have forced myself to find a way to be profitable with two contracts. So I will continue to trade safe, and stretch my last target hoping to catch around 40 points a day until I am funded. Feeling very confident in my ability to finish this combine, hopefully by the end of the month.
Here are my notes from this morning:
We have gapped up after end of week close, pushing above the yearly +1SD, and price has been rejected from Thursday's VWAP(Thursday was end of week due to Easter), to result successfully in a higher 30 minute trend. Also higher from last week's VWAP, and closing price.
This was all the info I needed to have conviction in the long trade that nailed the morning lows. Here I am bullish as long as we do not break VWAP with conviction, scaling into my position on any counter trend moves towards VWAP.
Hardest trade I took was the exhaustive selling that really butchered the trend, but I set my stop at an appropriate level, and my first successful scale allowed me a cushion for this trade. Again conviction in overall direction helped my gut check to stay with the trade. For sure my old trade self would have closed the entire trade at one of the worst locations of the day.
Results are another 40 point day, with my initial furthest target being hit. Now up $200 in the combine.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Well today definitely let some of the wind out of my sails. I was really thrown off by the surprise announcement from the U.K. this morning. The market did a full reversal higher on very high volume, and I was for sure the 170 point rally was overdone. So I essentially determined from the start(instead of letting the market tell me) that there would not be much opportunity today minus some counter trend action.
Well I violated a few of my personal rules obviously, and primarily the one I am focused on is the mental one. It is my intent to focus on trend continuation, as was expressed just yesterday, and today I did the opposite. I had one really good setup I missed because of it, and a few decent ones I passed up because I was just not in sync with that price action, as well as regret from missing the first. It wasn't long after my first trade attempt that you could say I had given up on the day, and was focused on marking up charts along with other things.
I let myself and my PnL down today, potentially significantly, but now is not the time to whither in pitty. It is time to assess what I did wrong, and make adjustments to do my best not to repeat mistakes in the future.
#1. I did not hurt my account. I lost two points today. I did not become stubborn in my attempt to trade counter trend, and continue to make foolish trades. This is a huge win, considering everything else. Live to fight another day is rule number one.
#2. It is not anywhere in my rules to attempt to trade counter trend, no matter how good the R:R is. As I proved today, reward will always be lower than focusing on with trend trades. This reminds me that I have not updated my entry checklist, and need to get this done. This would have helped today, and I will do it tonight.
#3. Loss of focus. Market hours is not for anything but trading, especially the first few. I must always do my best to be in sync with the market. I could have had at least three good trades today, if I had got my butt back in the drivers seat after I noticed the market wanted to continue to go higher.
Remember every day is a learning opportunity, this has contributed to my progress more than anything else I have done. Learn and grow always.
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Looking at these charts with the lack of profits hurts, let it serve as a reminder that to be a professional trader, you must act like one. Small loss as the market turned against my short position for fear of a break out against me. Hah! I didn't even execute my counter trend trade well, that could/should have been profitable.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
I was really hoping for continuation this morning from yesterday, and at first it looked like I was going to get it. We just could not test the overnight high, and it was a gradual fall from there. Today was a good learning experience for me, balancing out how long(and how strong) my conviction for a certain market direction should be.
I usually like to use VWAP as my long/short guide depending on price action, but today we had a couple important levels below VWAP, and spaced out just enough that it would be hard to build a position without potentially having to reverse my trade. With that said, I could just not let my bullish bias go once the best R:R downside entry presented itself. I was so sure it was going to go up, even though my course of action should have been to enter short, then let the market reverse my position through price action if it was going to finally go up.
You can actually see where the price action is quite choppy once we broke VWAP, as other participants were potentially in the same boat as myself with the important levels below. This also did not help my long bias, and there was large buying volume coming into the market. But once we tested the area to short as mentioned previously, price action started coming together, smoothing out, and respecting levels as we moved to the downside. The kind of price action that I specifically look for when managing a trade. So shame on me for not jumping in short late, but whatever.
My goal is to improve a little bit each day, if I do that then I have done my job. Reversals have always been hard for me, and I am just now getting better at identifying them. I looked through the last four months, and the scenario like today is quite rare, making my inefficiency a bit more understandable.
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My first trade was gangster, bought the right break out, and then added at exactly the right location. Got to within 6 points of my daily target first thing this morning. Had a nice 14 point scale out with the add, and then we started to reverse. Stop location was no good, but based on following price action I would have taken a loss around the same location.
Next long attempt was at a good location, and immediately went 13 points in my favor before reversing.
You can see my potential short area marked with the box and arrow, and volume distribution between sellers taking over strength of buyers before we went down, in the volume panel boxes one and two.
I do not trade on Thursdays so see ya Friday!
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Meh, kind of a crap morning. Had a hard time getting in sync with the market, so once I had another failed setup that I didn't really understand I bailed out. A couple of errors too, albeit small ones. Will do some analysis over the weekend, and prep for the week ahead! Have a good weekend!
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
