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lovetotrade's YM Breakout Journal

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  #301 (permalink)
Rockledge, FL
 
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Rrrracer View Post
Good to have you back man, and glad you've found a missing link in your trading... exactly what I am looking for right now. I'll have a look at that thread you linked to, been paying more attention to VP lately...

Thanks man good to be back, I think part of the reason I cut back is because it really is time consuming, but so worth the effort. So I was using VP until I read that thread. Ben explained it perfectly, the volume is important, but structure is why the volume builds on those areas. Makes total sense. Not that VP doesn't have it's uses, but I am convinced MP TPO has everything I need.

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Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #302 (permalink)
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bobarian View Post
Very nice entries on the 6b.I see you are using the 2 min.For the fade today off the highs, are you looking for some type of divergence at confluence?Or maybe a sell candle like a dogi or hammer? or maybe both!I watched the quick charts for years, killed me...much different tho when there is confluence at a level....or perhaps the ADR was maxed...good stuff
Bob

So it's a little hard to explain, usually it is something as simple as a momentum reversal on TPO structure, and then a failure at VWAP while having room in the ADR to make a worthwhile attempt. But the EURO had exhausted itself to the upside, and was weak compared to the EURO the whole run up in price. So if the upside is weak and can't even get us to a decent range on the day(40+), then there is probably room to run on the downside.

I honestly did not know if we would follow through to the downside at first, and I was ready to start peeling contracts back off if we reversed back to the upside. But at that point I had enough information to make an attempt at downside price exploration, so you gotta go all in or get left behind.

Oh another pretty important thing I look for is balance areas in the MP. If the move coincides with a move out of balance into another balance area then I want to see it accepted and not rejected back into balance. I want a clean break, I have learned to just be a little more agile in those areas.

Hope that helps!

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Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #303 (permalink)
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Alright so gonna start out wit the fact that collectively I am not happy with today lol. I have already journaled about it twice, so clarity is there to apply to tomorrow. Loss wasn't too bad, but larger than it should have been, actually should have been profitable period! Forgot to set the 10 a.m. eco report alarm, and the volatility stopped me out of my position right as I added, and the market carried on without me. Would have reversed my day. Frustrating because it's a rookie error, I check my news absolutely first thing every morning. Been burned too much in the past.

Ok so first things first. Range has been pretty tight last couple days, not allowing for solid directional moves. Not a big deal. In the past I have adjusted my trading to fit low vol, then when the big days come I am ill equipped, so I will try to exploit these days as much as I can for now.

Also did not read my morning checklist, and initially violated rule #9. Try to look for extremes to get positioned. Low risk, high reward obvious areas. Be patient for a good entry.

I was able to correct my errors, and get scaled in but not as efficiently as it should have been, and caused me to scramble to get full size. Really have to work on nailing this, and cutting down my execution.

Now for the main issue today, price diverged significantly from the EURO without a news event. That is something brand new for me. Lesson learned here is to follow GBP momentum, and look for volume to come back in and the correlation to re-align. So that caused some improper trades from me. No matter what, I should not deviate from the way I enter. Patience is key. No break out trades, especially when we are in uncharted waters.

Frustrated not at the losses, but because they were unnecessary.

Marked the balance areas within split TPO today. Balanced, moved higher, balanced, moved lower, balanced, moved higher. This is all still new to me so really trying to focus on the correct things in real time.


You can see from my entries and exits that trading was overall sloppy, but particularly bad once I didn't have conviction to the downside, but decided to go for it anyway. Now in hindsight I can see why that lack of conviction was justified, and hopefully we trade the diverging markets better.


Hope others succeeded better than I did today, here's to a new day tomorrow!

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #304 (permalink)
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Gonna list my current morning checklist, which is always evolving, just so it becomes more obvious why I do what I do.

1. Check news

2. Check daily trend- Trending, retracing, or bracketing(Stuck inside +/- Weekly 1SD)

3. Adjust value areas for previous day, weekly on Sunday nights. Mark the open, and try to anticipate how the day will close. (Helps me with bullish/bearish conviction larger picture)

4. Check the 5k chart(one of my larger TF charts) and over night price action. Note important levels in play. Check for potential gaps to be revisited.

5. Note the current balance area in regards to current price action. Are we in balance or out of balance? If in balance where are the extremes? Note the next balance area we may visit above and below us.

6. Did we move towards value or away from it over night? It it looks look the market has had a solid run in either scenario, be prepared to reverse course. Focus on where we are at in the daily trend to adjust expectations.

7. Note the ADR and potential distant targets.

8. Follow the EURO TPO and price action to help us guide our direction for the day, noting any obvious divergences and correlation. Watch closely for reversal signal. *NEW* If we completely diverge from the EURO, follow momentum until correlation resumes.

9. Try to look for extremes to get positioned, low risk, high reward, obvious areas. Be patient for a good entry.

10. Focus on where we are in the trend. Are we in line with momentum, or has momentum started to reverse and we should now be cautious of any attempts at trend continuation, watching price action closely around the VWAP/1SD. Remember that just because the TPO has reversed, doesn't mean the whole trend has reversed course just yet, look for signs.

11. Large volume news events, reduce size, and widen stops. Wait for the pull back.

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #305 (permalink)
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Ok so I realize that I just commented on updating my morning checklist to include a new aspect of the EURO correlation/divergence, but after another significant divergence this morning that handicapped my trading, I will be scrapping following the EURO for now in regards to conviction and trade decisions. I have a previous note where I mentioned that if following the EURO had a negative impact on my trading, that we would have to let it go. Well after 3 days just within the last week, I would have been much better without it. So I will keep an eye on it going forward, and can always re-add it later.

So today we came in knowing the FOMC is this afternoon, so I already was thinking balanced day. Then after looking at the previous profile, which was also very balanced, it was easy to formulate a plan for the day. Which now I am also thinking that actual market structure just completely overrides market correlation, another reason to let the EURO go.

We opened up near the ONL, and VAL where we were having a mini balance area(think consolidation). So if we are targeting the upper end of the profile, we would take a long from the bottom of support, where we quickly know if we are wrong. Weekly VWAP was just below the ledge of the balance area, so this was our next attempt, but after high volume oscillation came in around my entry I quickly exited assuming it was news, which it was.



Remember larger volume can come in and blow your thesis out of the water, and now cause range expansion so wanted to re-analyze. Well volume and volatility quickly shrunk back to normal and the EURO just kept cruising lower, eroding my confidence in my long thesis. After getting stopped out from an improperly placed stop, from not that great of a B/O entry, I thought maybe we would get a break lower. Well we just continued to melt higher. I took a 2/3rds size short from VWAP, as we usually get a reaction there, and thought it would be a good place for the GBP to start correlating with the EURO again. Well it blew right threw my stop, and I knew it was time to get long. Waited for the pull back, and took another 2/3rds position since we were now much closer to my final targets from pre market planning. VPOC and top of the balance area. Scaled out to end B/E on the day.



You can see how frustrating planning the day correctly is, but having such distracting negating information is. EURO you gotta go!

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #306 (permalink)
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lovetotrade View Post
Ok so I realize that I just commented on updating my morning checklist to include a new aspect of the EURO correlation/divergence, but after another significant divergence this morning that handicapped my trading, I will be scrapping following the EURO for now in regards to conviction and trade decisions. I have a previous note where I mentioned that if following the EURO had a negative impact on my trading, that we would have to let it go. Well after 3 days just within the last week, I would have been much better without it. So I will keep an eye on it going forward, and can always re-add it later.

So today we came in knowing the FOMC is this afternoon, so I already was thinking balanced day. Then after looking at the previous profile, which was also very balanced, it was easy to formulate a plan for the day. Which now I am also thinking that actual market structure just completely overrides market correlation, another reason to let the EURO go.

We opened up near the ONL, and VAL where we were having a mini balance area(think consolidation). So if we are targeting the upper end of the profile, we would take a long from the bottom of support, where we quickly know if we are wrong. Weekly VWAP was just below the ledge of the balance area, so this was our next attempt, but after high volume oscillation came in around my entry I quickly exited assuming it was news, which it was.



Remember larger volume can come in and blow your thesis out of the water, and now cause range expansion so wanted to re-analyze. Well volume and volatility quickly shrunk back to normal and the EURO just kept cruising lower, eroding my confidence in my long thesis. After getting stopped out from an improperly placed stop, from not that great of a B/O entry, I thought maybe we would get a break lower. Well we just continued to melt higher. I took a 2/3rds size short from VWAP, as we usually get a reaction there, and thought it would be a good place for the GBP to start correlating with the EURO again. Well it blew right threw my stop, and I knew it was time to get long. Waited for the pull back, and took another 2/3rds position since we were now much closer to my final targets from pre market planning. VPOC and top of the balance area. Scaled out to end B/E on the day.



You can see how frustrating planning the day correctly is, but having such distracting negating information is. EURO you gotta go!

ive thought about this many times.Some traders watch other markets, to try to read the market they are trading.As you point out, this affects your view on your trading instrument.Sometimes this is helpful, sometimes not.Frustrating for sure!Especially, if you focussed on your instrument, and the context for it alone, and there was a clear plan that worked.I think FOMC is a big culprit here as well.

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  #307 (permalink)
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lovetotrade View Post
Remember larger volume can come in and blow your thesis out of the water, and now cause range expansion so wanted to re-analyze. Well volume and volatility quickly shrunk back to normal and the EURO just kept cruising lower, eroding my confidence in my long thesis. After getting stopped out from an improperly placed stop, from not that great of a B/O entry, I thought maybe we would get a break lower. Well we just continued to melt higher.


You can see how frustrating planning the day correctly is, but having such distracting negating information is. EURO you gotta go!

The market is waiting for one thing: is Powell going to be unambiguously bullish or is he going to be uncertain? It is not important your thesis was proven incorrect. Happens a lot and you must expect it in a FOMC week.

What is important is the mathematical expectancy of your strategy. How much are you likely to win on average, and how much is this value likely to fluctuate in the short term? Key word here is fluctuate. Your strategy statistics will deviate from the norm and this understanding should give you a bit more confidence when you are on a negative swing.

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  #308 (permalink)
Rockledge, FL
 
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Grantx View Post
The market is waiting for one thing: is Powell going to be unambiguously bullish or is he going to be uncertain? It is not important your thesis was proven incorrect. Happens a lot and you must expect it in a FOMC week.

What is important is the mathematical expectancy of your strategy. How much are you likely to win on average, and how much is this value likely to fluctuate in the short term? Key word here is fluctuate. Your strategy statistics will deviate from the norm and this understanding should give you a bit more confidence when you are on a negative swing.

But my thesis was proven correct. My reliance on EUR/USD price action kept me from getting in where I originally planned with conviction, and therefore had to enter from a much less advantageous level.

I understand expectancy, and monitor a large range of statistics in regards to my strategy. My reliance on the EUR/USD to help guide entries and directional conviction has hurt my execution, profit, and therefore expectancy this week, which is why I am removing it. With the EURO removed, there was nothing preventing me from executing my plan to perfection today, market moved very much in line with my pre-market plan. I thought I was pretty clear with all that in today's update, maybe you are referring to something I am missing.

Thanks for commenting!

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #309 (permalink)
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bobarian View Post
ive thought about this many times.Some traders watch other markets, to try to read the market they are trading.As you point out, this affects your view on your trading instrument.Sometimes this is helpful, sometimes not.Frustrating for sure!Especially, if you focussed on your instrument, and the context for it alone, and there was a clear plan that worked.I think FOMC is a big culprit here as well.

For sure! And like I had previously mentioned, one of the main reasons I like it was to build conviction in my position if the EURO was trending well, but my market was lagging. But the trade always remained valid regardless, so I am assuming I was just looking for a cushion there. It definitely would not make or break my trading, and I am sure there is some value in at least monitoring the correlation, but I am convinced placing so much weight on it for my own trade decisions was incorrect.

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #310 (permalink)
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lovetotrade View Post
But my thesis was proven correct. My reliance on EUR/USD price action kept me from getting in where I originally planned with conviction, and therefore had to enter from a much less advantageous level.

I understand expectancy, and monitor a large range of statistics in regards to my strategy. My reliance on the EUR/USD to help guide entries and directional conviction has hurt my execution, profit, and therefore expectancy this week, which is why I am removing it. With the EURO removed, there was nothing preventing me from executing my plan to perfection today, market moved very much in line with my pre-market plan. I thought I was pretty clear with all that in today's update, maybe you are referring to something I am missing.

Thanks for commenting!

Sorry my mistake, I misinterpreted your original post. Im an expert at reading things incorrectly and jumping to conclusions.

btw, great journal. I read an earlier post where you mentioned this would be your last attempt. It says a lot about a persons character when they pick themselves up off the floor and keep fighting. I really hope you make it this time. Ill be following along. Best of luck!

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  #311 (permalink)
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Grantx View Post
Sorry my mistake, I misinterpreted your original post. Im an expert at reading things incorrectly and jumping to conclusions.

btw, great journal. I read an earlier post where you mentioned this would be your last attempt. It says a lot about a persons character when they pick themselves up off the floor and keep fighting. I really hope you make it this time. Ill be following along. Best of luck!

Haha no worries! I was really trying hard to find where you were coming from, I try to explain things as clearly as possible. Probably in too much detail.

I appreciate the compliment. I really do feel like I have everything in my arsenal along with the experience to make it happen. So if this doesn't work out I'm just not sure what else I could possibly learn that would help me make the turn. Very excited for the future though.

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Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #312 (permalink)
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So today is the kind of day that gives me great hope moving forward. After having one of the biggest drawdowns of recent past, I was able to trade all the way back to a small profit on the day. I could feel in my gut that I was close to having to stop for the day, but once that feeling starts creeping in, I know the move of the day is just around the corner. (I know this because I can't tell you how many times I have quit at max loss, just to have the next move go right by without me that would have saved my butt.)

Today we started with a reasonable plan based on the overnight move and structure. You never know how much of a reaction you are going to get at M-VWAP intraday, but the previous test told me it was definitely a level worth watching. Being much more aggressive in profit taking around that level would have gone a long way in cushioning my early losses on the day.

Essentially what we had today was an obvious balance area that formed, a B/O lower with 2 attempts, a P/B to the day's developing value, finally the break lower, then a total return to value, ending in a pretty balanced day. It was nice not having the EURO to distract me, as I did just fine struggling on my own lol. Main issue today is that it was a rare multidirectional day(hardest to trade), and I was not patient enough with my entries. Nor did I scale back risk even though I was frustrated, and became unsure of direction. I have to save enough bullets to be able to trade the move of the day without having such a large drawdown. Fortunately we ended the day ok, and also saved our week.

Here I have highlighted today's main bracketing areas, and our first major target, a previous naked POC on the TPO.


And here you can see the mess that today was, chasing the market around instead of being patient for good low risk entries. I like the fact that I scaled in though. What was most important today to note was that price was never accepted above ETH -1SD after the break down below M-VWAP, nor did we get the TPO reversal. Should have stayed small when betting on the reversal till we cleared those hurdles. I did catch the move back to RTH VWAP at the end of day, but with the huge consolidation and volume, I could have easily scaled that trade up. Wasn't willing to risk much of what I had worked so hard for though.


Hope everyone has a blessed and wonderful weekend! See ya Monday!

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #313 (permalink)
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Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes the opposite. Today was an opposite day. Had a nice profit going, was positive on the day then WHAM! 100 point reversal on surprise news. Thank goodness for stops and liquidity. Didn't get hurt fortunately. This is the risk I take trading the GBP around the BREXIT, but with increased volatility comes increased opportunity.

Main struggle lately is execution. Execution costs are way too high, and if I am getting positioned correctly from the beginning then they should be fairly minimal. So establishing some rules for different scenarios, and will be keeping a close eye on this going forward.

Bigger picture pre-market is that we were balancing in Friday's value area, so this general calls for us to take the break out away from value. We opened in balance, and in value so we start with no directional conviction. But you can see the two balance areas today highlighted in today's split profile. You can see the attempt to break higher, then the true break lower, followed by the rip higher on news.


So today the market was balancing around the ETH 1SD at the open, with buyers underneath seeming to hold the market. So I entered there as this is considered an extreme. The market will generally play ping pong back and forth around the 1st standard deviation levels, so a fade here is generally good risk:reward, as there are only two options. The market will hold and reverse, or continue and B/O. I started scaling in as we moved higher, and more buy volume came in increasing my conviction. Took a small profit at the opposite extreme, then re-entered as the market started to drift back toward my original entry. We got a strong break to the downside, reversing the TPO, so this calls for us to jump in short.

Break outs are a funny thing, you never know if the market will continue right away, or if it will pull back and give you a shot at a better price. This is not a perfect science, so setting some general rules, and doing it long enough will help guide you. Well I needed to enter full size right away short which I normally do, but after getting burned Friday on the reversals I decided to wait for price.(Bad idea and that is why we need rules!) Got an ok average but didn't get full size, and then went back and forth entering exiting as I felt like the market was too short and needed to trade higher first. Completely goofed all that execution due to lack of patience and focus on bigger picture other than I knew I wanted to be short. Finally had a decent profit when the market reversed on news.


So we live to fight another day, with a little something learned. Besides making money, these are my two main goals EVERY day.

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #314 (permalink)
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So today we had an easy to spot reversal type day. I am still relatively new to trading these types of days, so I had a little trouble sizing up. Focusing on solid R:R areas are key to getting past that hurdle.

One thing I remembered today while trading is a concept I either read or came up with a while back. If you are having trouble getting the targeted PB entry that you want, you probably need to be more aggressive in your entry strategy although it is generally more uncomfortable, but momentum is obviously in your direction. And if you are having no problem getting into the market, although this feels better, if you have patience you probably can get a better entry, and you should be more conservative as you may very well be wrong or at a disadvantageous price.

I for one need to do a better job of this, as I tend to do the opposite.

So today as per the TPO, pre-open I observe the H period, and the I starts at 7 a.m. You can see the H period's momentum is obviously to the downside, and the market has run away from value continually in the ON session. This should immediately get you leaning counter trend for the day. I cannot tell you how long I fought this natural tendency of the market, just because I was not aware of the reversion to the mean factor. So today we tested short on a pull back with a smaller position, just to test the strength of downward momentum.(Just because the market will likely mean revert does not mean there is a specific scenario it should do it). Well the market reversed, and we quickly reversed as momentum shifted higher. We then balanced in value below ETH VWAP, and then popped higher where we covered our position at the target and HOD, which was confluence weekly -1SD/ETH 1SD. When the market is trending, you must expect larger TF traders to step in at levels that make sense for them to test the short/long.


Still struggled a bit with execution, but overall number was lower today, and I was much more aware of it during live trading. All positive developments. Was trying to get back to full size at the -1SD confluence area just below, but demand under RTH VWAP proved too much and we slammed 30 points higher. Nicely profitable day.


Hope everyone had a great day!

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #315 (permalink)
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Yay another learning lesson! So today we had a reversal day, but one I was not prepared for and it showed. It really sucks to get direction wrong, but it's part of the learning process. Use that information you missed to help make you better!

So ON we got rejection from W VWAP, and so I expected that to be a continuation to the downside, instead of letting the market tell me what it wanted to do, then the most important part, me listening to what it is saying!

Market immediately fell sharply into solid support when I sat down so I didn't get a chance to get short from an ideal location. So we went short on a break lower of W -1SD, and VAL, which should quickly tell us if momentum is in our favor or not. Well we quickly exited that trade as momentum reversed to the upside, but I literally had four important levels above that could immediately reverse the market. So I ignored the fact that we bounced from RTH -1SD/VAL confluence then slowly grinded higher against our position before the B/O and sweeping our stop. Truth is there was no easy trade here, and I am glad I reduced risk when we started consolidating above RTH VWAP. The thing most frustrating today was that bigger picture told me there was a possibility of reversal, and I just did not see it. Was not prepared for the reversal at all and that sucks.

So here were the signs. 60 point drop from the highs ON through yesterday's entire value range, VAH to VAL. This combined with the double bottom at VAL/RTH -1SD confluence was all we needed to test the long. Even if we didn't take the long we should have been aware of it, and ready to switch long to recover the day. Instead we end with a midsized loss. Lame. This type of day also does not happen that often, so now we have a record of it.



Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #316 (permalink)
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No charts today. Took a small loss on a long attempt at news today. The market broke higher, reversed lower, then higher. I was prepared to buy on any PB to reasonable support, but just never got it.

I know I mentioned on a previous post that sometimes you have to step up your aggressiveness to get into the market, and today that would have worked out. But I also think there is nothing wrong with sitting tight and following your strategy as best as you can. That means you will not catch every single move, and that is ok. We mitigate some of our risk by trading our strengths, and doing what we are good at. I am sure over time I may improve on momentum moves, but honestly I am just not very good at it.

Realized yesterday that if I drop my daughter off 5 minutes earlier to school on Thursday's that I can be home in time to catch the usual 8:30 report, and actually trade the day instead of taking the whole day off. My rules state that I don't trade prior to a big report anyways unless we break out of balance on good volume, so that could work. I miss a lot of good potential days from taking off Thursdays, and yesterday was no different. Would have been my best day this week.

Also one more note, and one of the biggest things I have stumbled across this week is actually using the previous day's profile more intensively during the day to help pinpoint entries/exits. There are tons of times that I can see looking back through charts where we reversed from a ledge, or continually bounced from a ledge that was in between my normal VWAP levels, that would have helped me exit more efficiently. Plus we can see exactly how the day is rotating through the previous' days profile. I think it will help, but only time will tell!

Hope everyone has a great weekend!

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #317 (permalink)
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One of the most important things I do is a weekly Review on Sunday nights. It really helps me drill down to the major issues I struggled with during the week, which usually helps me also find the reason "why". Every day last week seemed to be a battle, and at the time I wasn't sure why. Well over the weekend it became more obvious that we were actually bracketing, and when that is happening you don't get much of a heads up on the direction front. So this is actually good, as it helped me realize that during that future scenario I need to be sizing down, and waiting for the market to reveal its hand and try to jump on board the move with the most volume/conviction. Last week I lost about a third of what I made the week prior. Not bad at all, and nothing to be concerned about, I would say that for me it's actually something to be proud of, as the week prior was nothing special.

So last night as I was going over the charts I noticed we were back at the very top of the bracket, and the following morning we would probably find one of two scenarios. We broke out of the bracket and would be bullish, or we would likely roll over and start heading back towards the bottom.


So we actually opened up around the mid point of the bracket where monthly VWAP was located, and after moving 110 points lower ON, even if we ultimately were going lower, probabilities would state that we needed to go higher first. So we entered long on a partial position, and started to monitor progress as the market moved higher. More randomness as we moved higher, broke down for a DB, then launched higher for the move of the day. My ultimate final targets if we got there was today's open, and last night's naked VPOC. Always gotta be prepared if the market decides to run.


Here you can see my positioning for the day, executions were reduced although still high, which partly cannot be corrected if the market changes direction with conviction we have to follow. Only goal is to improve a little day by day, and focus on the process. We were able to trust our gut a lot today. Love starting the week profitable, especially on a tough day.

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #318 (permalink)
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Alright, so we are still in balance on the daily, and doing my best to push trades while also accumulating profit. Mixed results today, but we came out ahead, and learned a couple of things.

ON the market completely reversed the progress of the longs from yesterday's session, all the way back to M-VWAP. Well we bounced from there back to ETH VWAP/VAL confluence, so that was our first level to trade from to get a feel for what the market wanted to do. Well we traded very nicely, what you would expect from a trend that has longevity. Breaking through levels, then PB to re-test before moving lower. Well I got a couple of scale in/outs on the way down, but I did not peel off one of my main holding contracts once we tested M-VWAP in case it reversed the trend. Which it did. Then the reversal was a slow grind higher into yesterday's value, so of course I did not get in full size, exited early, then fought the trend. Definitely did not take full advantage of the day, but man I was ready to kill it if the market continued lower initially.
Lots of things to be happy about, while we continue to learn the nuances of trading based on MP.


Main thing I missed was the slow grind higher through all the levels, this is exactly what you want to see when the market is reversing through levels you would normally enter from. I have to just trust the reversal, I could have reduced my size, but I should never have just one contract on when the market reverses. I should have let the market show it's hand when it wanted to finally reverse, a slow grinding market can literally move in one direction forever as new faders come in and supply fuel to the slow moving market. When the market did finally lose momentum, we were patient for one more final push in our direction. I did very well in waiting for the market to come to my levels to enter vs. entering on the B/O, so my risk was minimal. So mixed feelings on the day, but am still learning to trade reversals like this. Got the crash course lately as I have not seen one easy directional day in weeks it feels like. Happy to walk away profitable.


I would say based on the fact that we have been maintaining above last week's VWAP close, we may get a push higher from here and start a new bull trend on the daily. But that is all speculation till we B/O of the top of the bracket.

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #319 (permalink)
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Rock n roll baby! Ok so biggest winning day so far since switching to the MP style trading. I was able to get positioned full size early, then ride it all the way up scaling in/out as we moved higher/balanced/moved higher, etc.

As I mentioned yesterday, we did indeed break out of balance overnight, then pulled back to value this morning. Perfect opportunity to get long. Got in once we crossed VWAP to the upside, and the market never looked back. Finally an easy directional day with a good range. We had news at 8:30 so we didn't take any position trades before then.

First shot is break out of the balance on the daily chart.


Next is obvious PB/support at Y VPOC


And entries on the day.


I have been maintaining an aggressive trading regimen while waiting for range expansion, but maybe a better strategy is to have some sort of target in mind on the day when the market is in balance. Range expansion is usually accompanied by a trending market so that would make sense. Hope everyone had a great day!

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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So just a quick note on Thursday since I didn't post a journal entry, but it was an important day.

I ended with a mid sized loss yesterday essentially due to my lack of morning preparation. I woke up later than usual since I knew I didn't have to trade till 8:30 due to news. I take my daughter to school Thursday's due to wife's work schedule, and just recently decided that if I dropped her off a few minutes earlier I could arrive at home in time to trade for the remainder of the morning.

Well cocky little me thought I could trade the day with virtually no morning preparation. And even though my instincts on direction were correct, I had no conviction to follow through with my trade ideas, and ended up taking small losses fighting the trend until I decided to call it quits. Fortunately mother market is always there to check you when you think you have outwitted her.

So that is the focus of this post, and seriously bled into my market prep this morning which I will go into on next post. My recent improvement, which is getting better by the day, is solely based on the fact that I have improved my ability to read contextual clues of the market better, then position for the most likely move from a good R:R standpoint. That's it. Nothing else has changed.

It is 100% about me being able to fully commit to my trading ideas, even though they are sometimes wrong(actually 60% wrong if you look at my stats). And once you are fully committed to the trade idea, then you have to commit to seeing that idea through, and perhaps even push that idea to the best of your ability. On the other end, you need to structure your trades so that when you are wrong, you can recognize it quick and get out.

When I put in the work first thing(which is not a lot, it's really about focusing on the right things) then every swing of the market has more meaning, and I can see things much more clearly as they are happening.

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #321 (permalink)
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Alright so this morning we opened up in balance, and in value. This essentially means we are rotating in yesterday's value area, i.e. directionless market. So without context, how could you trade a day like that? Here is what I did.

Based on the daily TPO chart, the last few days have been building value higher, but are seriously overlapping, which tells me the market is struggling to move higher already, even though we just recently broke out of the daily bracket to the upside. Now this doesn't mean that the daily uptrend is over, or going to end today, it may just mean that we need to auction lower first to find more buyers.

We opened rotating in the lower area of yesterday's value, in between VAL and VPOC. Mind you if the trend is higher, yet we break VAL it is usually defended well or we get a nice flush to the downside from long liquidation, there is usually not a lot of middle ground there. So always a good idea to keep that in mind in this scenario, and I did not fully take advantage of that today.

So the first chart you can see daily value overlapping each other, but moving slightly higher. Here is the first clue something is up. During the European open we rotated, building value in yesterday's excess at the highs. Excess is defined by a single spike in the TPO where price was not accepted. Well after trying to build value up there, we quickly broke lower. This immediately removes any strong bullish conviction for now.


Next chart is a bit more zoomed in. The lower rectangle shows the immediate balance area. You can see where the bulk of value was established yesterday, and that is a very real resistance level we would need to break through before the market can head higher. The lower ledge of that coincided with ETH VWAP, so my first low risk entry where I could be quite sure of a reaction was a short from that level. Just below the market was ETH -1SD/ONL/VAL confluence as my first low risk long idea.


And last is my execution for the morning. I never got to full size today as my original thesis' did not play out, but I should have entered my third contract with the 2nd after the first PB. You can't see it on the chart, but right before 7a.m. the market had a tight consolidation that it broke down on with good volume. This was my first indication we would at least test the downside first. So we need to quickly get a scale out in case my long thesis played out. Well the market was pretty choppy for the first little while, but never violated my short requirements so we played the idea out as well as we could with two contracts. A slam into monthly VWAP 1SD prompted the long at the end, which was also under committed and under utilized.

As I become more convinced of my ability to trade, my ability to trust myself to make the right decisions gets stronger, and I am definitely still influenced by my previous' days performance. These are flaws that everyone battles, but I am literally working off 4 months of losing so my goal is just to slowly improve day by day.

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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Man, writing about losing days is just not as fun as the winning ones!

Today the best trend was at the open prior to news, then the news just muckied the market. Struggled a little bit to get positioned, but finally got it, then the market reversed. So I reversed, and the market reversed again. No fun! Today I would consider average trading for me, mixture of great and ok execution. Losing days lately are about a third the size of my winning days lately, which is great for keeping that equity curve moving higher. Can't win every day, but I'm gonna keep trying! When you win, win big, and when you lose, lose small!



Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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Will be back home from vacation Wednesday, and ready to trade Thursday. The down time has been nice, but Iím ready to get back in the saddle.


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Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #324 (permalink)
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One of the most important things in this game is learning from your mistakes, and then doing your best not to repeat them! Especially the critical ones. I have a morning checklist to get myself in sync with the market, and to get me focusing on the right things before we start risking money. Well for some reason I think I subconsciously either don't need it, or have it memorized enough to be able to skip it. Well when I do my performance seems to suffer significantly.

So once again, re-emphasizing the importance of following our routine, it helps keep us from doing dumb things.

Alright so today we opened with the market in balance. The market has been trending lower recently, so I should have been focusing on if fresh selling came in at yesterday's lows. Which it did, the day turned into a nice trend day down, but not before chopping me up in the beginning balance.

We essentially rotated between y VPOC and today's EURO open, until we broke down and never looked back.


So of course, I reduced size due to confusion, and missed the full move down. Made a few bucks back, but today should be considered a failure to take advantage of what was offered. This is why I am so convicted that morning planning prep is so important to long term success. This must also be paired with focusing on context correctly.

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #325 (permalink)
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My biggest days of struggle so far are mean to reversion days, that have to work through a lot of S/R. I mean how do you gain confidence when everything in your mind tells you it's backwards lol. Working to see what I can do to take more advantage of these types of days, but honestly the fact that I can at least trade them profitably goes so far beyond what they used to be. My biggest losing days. And honestly I may always need to trade these less aggressively, which is fine as long as I am attacking my a+ setups full force.

Today I made an error in judgement right off the bat, and remembered that I needed to print out instructions for my reversal type days. Essentially if there isn't enough distance to trade into developing value(1SD), and take profit, then we just need to trade with the proceeding trend to test strength, then we can reverse when 1SD is broken. Well today I took a long from a decent level that made it a low risk trade, but I should have traded with the confluence at 1SD, which would have resulted in a nice morning profit before the first news event came out. The fact that we also had two news items didn't help me with conviction either as the whole trend can reverse.

I do have two rules for trading before news and they are very specific. The market must be trending, or at least moved quite a bit out of value, and we must reduce size. Also if the market breaks out of value on strong volume we must trade that as well, again with reduced size.

We had a smallish range overnight, so I wasn't expecting any kind of large reversal, but after a large down day like yesterday we do tend to mean revert.


My first entry was after news at 8:30. I have been doing better with my entries since I have focused on getting good location on the RTH VWAP chart. Keeping note of ETH, but honestly if you follow price action on the RTH you can't help but do well. Got some scales in/out on the way up. Flat before 10 am news, re-entry etc. Made money so can't be too upset!

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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Alright, well my chance to test my reversal skills again came today, but with much better results! One of my biggest winning trades so far. Captured 75%+ of the daily range so very happy about that. Didn't get too much fuss from longs as the market started moving lower after the reversal first thing. Active profit taking/re-entering at key levels, and final exit at LOD makes for a good day!

So I have increased my size to the max I can in my account, and am still doing well, so I am at a dilemma. I can only deposit so much more at the moment strictly due to financial restraints, and time of year. Which is a bummer because I really need to be piling money into the account and growing it while I am doing well. So I have looked back into the Topsteptrader FX option again. They actually use the MT4 platform which is what I execute on currently, so seriously considering trading my live/combine platforms right next to each other. Definitely staying on the humble side this time, so no outlandish claims that I will crush it the first month. But based on my results from the last couple months it is indeed possible, and realistically I would complete it relatively quickly. Plan would be to set my leverage appropriately, then just trade exactly as I am doing now. Focusing on market action, and not trading my PnL. Easier said than done, but I believe I have a good handle on this these days.

Ok onto today's trading!

So we are definitely starting to pull back on the daily chart, even though it's not dramatic, it changes our strategy. We would generally focus on going long with the market's counter trend tendency, based on ON movement of course, but essentially we would be looking for the previous VAL to hold until it breaks in a major way, causing the downtrend to resume. Pretty clear cut.

Today we came in pre-market where the market broke down ON, consolidated shortly at Friday's value, then launched higher. This already comes in line with our thesis, now we just need to find a good entry level. Well ETH 1SD/VPOC was just under price action, so that's where we took a test long position. Then the market broke out, and pulled back into the early U.S. session and we got long. Market consolidated for a while and completely broke down, invalidating our long thesis, so we switched short. This is now the reversal scenario which I used to dread, but we were able to enter at a decent level, and actively took profits, and re-entered at key levels. You can see where the balance areas were, and once we broke ETH VWAP we began to build value there. You can see that on the TPO here.


Overall very happy with execution today. Even got full sized on a reversal day! Took final profit at LOD, very calm and collected trading today. Love it when I can see things clearly and objectively. I am mainly doing this to create discussion, and help anyone who is stuck in a rut or struggling. So far my posts have not sparked too much dialogue, which I hope changes in the future. If anyone has any suggestions please hit me up! Hope everyone had a great day!

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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Update: I have had no regrets thus far with ditching the EURO from my trading plan.

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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Alright, so since I have gotten back from vacation I have been going through some growing pains. Now that I think of it, it often happens when I step away from the markets for a week or so, and I don't necessarily see it at the time, but I usually come out stronger on the other side. I really find it's my subconscious questioning what and why I am doing certain things, and I am convicted to find the answer to get back to peace. My trading has taken a giant leap forward in the last couple months, and it takes some time to digest new important realizations, and learn to trust them 100%. For me it is a lot about figuring out the why that the new information is important, and gaining a deeper understanding of why I can trust it.

So this has happened in a few stages, and has led me to this point now which I am excited to share with anyone who gives a damn .

The first stage was discovering the tidal flow of value. And that's kind of how I want to document this because I have heard it referred to this before, but I think it's different than just time frames. So in my eyes we have tides, wave, and ripples.

Now the tides and the waves are fairly simple to understand and see as long as you are looking at the correct things. It's the ripples, it is learning the nuances of the small time frame, and how it transitions in direction throughout the day, that really sets you up to position well to ride the waves. And that my friends is where the money is. If you know what to look for, and have developed some intuition to go along with it, then you are on your way to making consistent profits.

First stage, the tidal flow of value: I know I've gone over this before, but it's honestly the largest thing that almost put me out of business, so I consider it super critical. If you understand this fact, then you can at least limp your way to profitability. The market moves toward and away from value when trending(in my case I am referring to the daily time frame), and rotates back and forth between the extremes of the value area when the market is consolidating. So if the market moved 100 points away from value over night in the direction of the trend, chances are very high that the market will be moving counter trend for the bulk of the day. The market trend may be down, but if you are shorting every day while the market is moving lower every night for weeks in a row, this will destroy your bottom line. Take a wild guess as to how I know this. You must anticipate and respect this natural phenomenon of the markets. If anyone can disprove it, I am begging you to show me a better way of looking at it.

Second stage is the waves(momentum): This I get from the market profile TPO charts. The TPO is broken down into 30 minute sections of the market, and just shows basic info of how the intermediate time frame is trading compared to previous value. This information is quite simple, but also very powerful. Fight the TPO trend at your own risk, trading with the trend though brings freedom. The TPO is always doing one of three things, trending higher, trending lower, or bracketing. The power lies within its simplicity. What is the most difficult, is reading the nuances as the market shifts direction for the short term, and in meaningful ways.

Third and final stage of realization are the ripples: So my biggest struggle this last week had to do with the whole ETH and RTH VWAP fiasco. Why do we have two VWAP's during the day, why do we need it, is it important, do we need it? My answer to that now is an unequivocal yes. So here is what I have come up with, if you are familiar with VWAP, which I think most people are by now, the idea is that if we are trading between the +/-1 standard deviation then the market is in balance for that time frame, and a break out and trend outside of the 1SD is out of balance. Balance = consolidation, out of balance = trend. So when the U.S. traders come in at 7 a.m. EST, new money comes pouring into the markets(we see this through the increase in volume), and a new(RTH) VWAP becomes necessary to track value for that session. This is the MOST up to date information on current value, and is therefore one of the most important things you can watch, and take trades from.

Therefore price action, momentum, and RTH VWAP all work together to help us form the context to make good risk:reward decisions from. Remember, momentum of the TPO is a shifting 30 minute support/resistance level, but momentum reversal fake outs do happen, but regardless it's a long enough time frame that the moves are meaningful so you get positioned based on the tide, momentum, and VWAP positioning, then ride that sucker for most of the day's range a lot of times.

The game changer for me is learning to watch how price action responds and develops once momentum shifts, and how the RTH VWAP develops. To trust that developing S/R, and build a position around it, then quickly reverse and build in the other direction if the situation calls for it. The market truly is a living breathing organism, with no two days ever to be able to be exactly the same, and this is why buy/sell indicators do not work.

So my future posts will be structured around these three concepts of market development. Hopefully some can use this information for their benefit in the future.

-Chris

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Great stuff Chris. A few questions if you don't mind...

Are you still trading the Cable? And do you strictly use TPO in lieu of, say, volume profile?

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Great stuff Chris. A few questions if you don't mind...

Are you still trading the Cable? And do you strictly use TPO in lieu of, say, volume profile?

Thanks so much, @Private Banker once said that volume accumulation was specifically from these levels based on MP TPO. That has been my experience since switching, as I was an avid VP guy prior. Not that it doesn't have its utility, but to think it is more important, or to place more emphasis on VP than MP is that of the tail wagging the dog IMO.

Yes still trading Cable, but this information applies to all markets the same, although all markets behave differently, and have different characteristics. Looking forward to expanding into more FOREX markets in the intermediate term. But honestly with this info, you can cherry pick the ones that have the best opportunity, or at least fall in line with your best trading style.

Cheers!

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Interesting take on VWAP as well... I trade EUR/USD and haven't found much use for it other than context, but I have the ETH up and haven't charted RTH. Maybe worth another look.

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Are you still trading the Cable?


lovetotrade View Post
Yes still trading Cable....

What's the Cable?

Bob.

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Interesting take on VWAP as well... I trade EUR/USD and haven't found much use for it other than context, but I have the ETH up and haven't charted RTH. Maybe worth another look.

Like I mentioned it was a game changer for me, the most relevant information of developing value available. But this is based on the time frame I am trading. I will be showing more examples of this in the future, and maybe I should also point out what I see bewteen the two VWAPS during the session as well.

The EURO definitely has some funky price action at times, with wild swings coming out of nowhere. GBP is more predictable IMO, and is why I trade it over the EURO.

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What's the Cable?

Bob.

Hey Bob! Best explanation I found after a quick search.

"The term cable is a slang term used by forex traders to refer to the exchange rate between the pound and dollar and is also used to simply refer to the British pound itself. The term dates its origins to the 19th century."

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Like I mentioned it was a game changer for me, the most relevant information of developing value available. But this is based on the time frame I am trading. I will be showing more examples of this in the future, and maybe I should also point out what I see bewteen the two VWAPS during the session as well.

The EURO definitely has some funky price action at times, with wild swings coming out of nowhere. GBP is more predictable IMO, and is why I trade it over the EURO.


I like that rulee to push on the winners and do not lose.

Keep fighting that good fight.

TY-

EX

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What's the Cable?

Bob.


Cable=GBP/USD, Fiber=EUR/USD... but yea, Forex slang


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The term dates its origins to the 19th century."

If I'm not mistaken, I believe this relates to the first trans-Atlantic telegraph cable; instead of taking ten days to hit up your rich relatives abroad for some dough, it only took minutes hahaha. The Euro is known as the Fiber (as in fiber optics) because it's the newer currency.

@ lovetotrade, digging your new focus on value, this is the path I have been pursuing as well.. looking forward to more posts in this vein and also your thoughts on VWAP. Cheers!

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So if the market moved 100 points away from value over night in the direction of the trend, chances are very high that the market will be moving counter trend for the bulk of the day. The market trend may be down, but if you are shorting every day while the market is moving lower every night for weeks in a row, this will destroy your bottom line. Take a wild guess as to how I know this. You must anticipate and respect this natural phenomenon of the markets. If anyone can disprove it, I am begging you to show me a better way of looking at it.

I've been playing this strategy for a while and agree with your observation. Determine the prior session sentiment, note the closing price and then if the overnight has 'assisted' with the prior day sentiment then,with high regularity, you can expect some sort of countertrend move (profit taking) back to at least closing price where I find it stops and chops for a time. Sometime this establishes as new value. This is true for the European session more so than the US session.

Excellent journaling lovetotrade.

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I like that rulee to push on the winners and do not lose.

Keep fighting that good fight.

TY-

EX

In a nutshell, it's really the only way to succeed! Thanks for stopping by.

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@ lovetotrade, digging your new focus on value, this is the path I have been pursuing as well.. looking forward to more posts in this vein and also your thoughts on VWAP. Cheers!

Thanks a bunch man, should have a nice update tonight on today's volatile morning. Please stay engaged if you will, and let me know what you would like to see more of going forward. Good dialogue really helps me as well as it forces me to thoroughly think through these processes.

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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I've been playing this strategy for a while and agree with your observation. Determine the prior session sentiment, note the closing price and then if the overnight has 'assisted' with the prior day sentiment then,with high regularity, you can expect some sort of countertrend move (profit taking) back to at least closing price where I find it stops and chops for a time. Sometime this establishes as new value. This is true for the European session more so than the US session.

Excellent journaling lovetotrade.

Geez does it make life so much easier! You got it, the market temporarily establishes value, runs to the next spot to temporarily establish value or rejects, and then wash rinse repeat. The whole game is really establishing direction, knowing when to pull the trigger, and identifying where the market is likely to head next. And if you are looking at the right things, totally possible.

Thanks Grant!

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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Ok so today I woke up to a 250 point move lower due to one of the head people resigning from their position in the UK. Pretty sure he was a key guy managing the BREXIT stuff. So this is a fundamental shift, not just some sell the news event. But 250 points is A LOT and is really not sustainable to expect that to carry through the next session with any real conviction. So we come into the day thinking higher, but cautious.

The market already had bounced almost 80 points from the lows when I was doing my pre-market prep, so now we have to account for that as well. Is the dead cat bounce over? We were initially thinking higher, but this definitely puts a damper on its ability to do that as well, and market is super volatile so what do we do?

First thing was with the realization of a dramatic change in volatility requires a change in size. Cut my size to 2/3rds, and increased stop size to help account for larger swings, otherwise you will get eaten alive.

I like to use ETH VWAP as my barometer on the day as a whole, above is bullish/below bearish. So for the first 15 minutes of the session, while I am waiting for the RTH VWAP to develop, we started consolidating under ETH VWAP, and since my first initial reaction is usually wrong, I literally just tip toed in, in the opposite direction. And honestly it doesn't matter which direction you choose, as long as you are patient enough to enter at ideal risk, so if it doesn't work out it doesn't matter. Sometimes when the market is confusing, I just need to be in so I can begin to get a feel for it.
We were rotating between ETH VWAP and RTH -1SD, so once we got below RTH VWAP I took a small position, knowing that if we broke the consolidation lower I would need to quickly reverse, and that's exactly what happened. I averaged in as the market crept higher after the break, and then we got our drop.

That is honestly the hardest part about all this. Price action can get very wild and hard to gauge during direction transition, and I often find that when I am uncertain, it is also because the market(everyone else) is uncertain, and that kind of gives me peace about it. But what is the one thing we can absolutely control during uncertain times? Our risk. And it's just the art of feeling out the market as to whether you need to get all in right away, or maybe you need to tip toe in and wait, or maybe you are already all in and need to reduce exposure till everything becomes more clear. But the key is in realizing what is happening at the time you are in the middle of the tornado so that you know what to do. Unfortunately some of this is only gained by experience, but fortunately we have the RTH VWAP to help guide us.

A key rule could certainly be: Reduce exposure when uncertainty seems high, increase exposure when market begins to favor a direction. Basic and simple, but quite hard to do in real time.

I am going to read Steenbarger's Daily Trading Coach again, because I haven't in a while, but I specifically want to see how I can apply some of that process oriented goal setting to the way I am trading now. That is what is going to take me to the next level. So in the mean time I have created a little scoring system for myself so I can focus on key aspects that I know will keep my head focused on the right things, not just on PnL. They will be centered around my focus, anticipation and execution of the daily range, and overall execution based on RTH VWAP. I will tweak this going forward, but I think it will make a big impact right away. Hardest part is holding myself accountable!

Ok so some charts based on today.
So you can see the dramatic range expansion lower here.


Then the initial ONL made in the E period, followed by the run to ETH VWAP in the I period. Normally this white box would be frustrating, but because of the large range we have plenty of room to run significantly between important levels.


Got really lucky with the timing this morning, had a great run up in profit within the first hour of trading. Mind you I reduced size, but my targets were extended so it all balanced out. Another note I would like to make is that after reviewing the last two months in real time, and in review, I have decided to start trading again prior to news events. Most of the time anymore the market remains active right up until the event, and so so many times it is just a complete non-event. So I will still exit prior to the news, and I will trade smaller and aggressively in profit taking. Here is the trade I mentioned before, then took my daughter to school, came home at 8:28 to see the consolidation at RTH VWAP and the news non-event. Took a small short, and market immediately dropped 20 points, out and done for the day. For the most part this was the right call.

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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