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lovetotrade's YM Breakout Journal
Started:November 6th, 2014 (04:13 PM) by lovetotrade Views / Replies:11,204 / 187
Last Reply:November 22nd, 2016 (11:16 AM) Attachments:137

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lovetotrade's YM Breakout Journal

Old November 18th, 2014, 05:10 PM   #21 (permalink)
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11/18

So we dipped below the 8 hour 10 ema yesterday briefly, and popped right back above it. The 8 hour is in pretty tight consolidation, but hanging out in the upper portion of the BB's. We made a double top to the all time high's over night, but the market is not selling off. Bonds are bid this morning, and the rest of the indexes look a bit weaker than the Dow here.

So key areas to watch today are the double top at the ATH/ONH, and ONL as it was tested three times overnight, and should put in a good bottom if the market is gonna hold here, and head to new highs.

Big trade ideas today are:
1)Test highs, and roll over to test the lows, then chop through session higher.(This has been typical lately)
2)Break through high's, come back for a re-test and trend higher all day if volume is good.
3)Test lows, then bounce and chop back up through the session.
4)Break lows, and head lower down to 17511 to test yesterday's low of 17511, and bounce at the bottom of the bands shortly thereafter.

8:39 PPI report came out, market tried selling off, then was bid at the 2 hour ema which is our large trend chart for the day. Hanging around the VPOC now. 5 minute market is in a squeeze.

9:00 The support level where the market should have broke down, for the 5 minute squeeze to fire off short held and reversed. This was also right at the 2 hour ema, so I took a long there with my stop right below that double bottom. Buyers definitely stepped in there. That level is only 12 points away from the overnight lows, so I would have had a hard time justifying a short into that level anyway. Except to hold it and hope it broke down below it. Will post results. I feel much more comfortable taking a trade when I have that longer term perspective in mind. Seeing the forest through the trees I guess they call it. Didn't really quite grasp that concept until yesterday I think. Market is retracing, but bonds continue to sell off nicely, should give me another reason to be bullish here. So here we are at market open, and we are still hanging around my entry price. Don't know if I should hold the trade or let it go. It hasn't quickly moved in my direction, although it did test the bottom and hold. If we are below my entry at the opening bell I guess I will hold to see what happens. So the market tried moving higher, all the indexes were moving higher, and of course the Dow is the weakest today. Stopped me out and is reversing. Story of my life. Do not hold through the open unless you have some profit to bear the swing.

9:40 Market broke out to the upside, and squeeze fired long. Volume is good, and is coming back to test the ONH. So it looks like scenario 2 might be playing out. If we take off from here, will be looking to add another contract. 15 minute squeeze fired off, and the hourly could as well. Market reversed at all time highs. I could have taken 20 points profit at the ATH, and then tried to add another contract at pullback. Actually that's what I should have done. I got greedy. I added another contract, and then got stopped out. In hindsight not that big of a deal. The stop out was small, and if the trade would have worked out, then it would have made my month. Just really hurting for profits, so giving up anything stinks at this point.

All three markets were in a 5 minute squeeze this morning, and I now realize from price action that the Dow was obviously the weakest. The best one to take would have been the Nasdaq. It ran a full 20 points($400) before petering out, as compared to a paltry 30 points($150) in the Dow. And since that is the average run in the Dow, I entered 10 points late, and should have been looking at taking profits at 20 points which coincided with the ATH. Another hard lesson learned. I have been wanting a trend day so bad, and I need to let that feeling go.

Missed the buy signal at the 15 ema while I was wallowing in my regret. 15 minute squeeze is still active, and wouldn't be surprised to see it take out the highs. This time without me. This level was very obvious support, but after the fact for me. It seems that as soon as I take my sight off the larger picture, things go into disarray for me. This pivot mid line, along with the 6 times overnight it bounced there as resistance is now support, and would have been obvious. When the market started pulling back, I should have been looking for obvious support, and this level should have stuck out like a sore thumb. The more I focus on the longer charts, the more the movements in the smaller charts make sense.

Definitely important that I mark important overnight levels, and keep an eye on them throughout the day. The ONH/ONL is important, but key levels, pivots, etc. can be used to help make decisions during the trading day.

So I just had an epiphany about this morning. The right choice of action would have been to exit the trade before the market open, so that I could have objectively watched the price action, and made a logical decision based on what I saw happen. Like I would have seen it run through where my stop would have been, and then do a hard reverse, knowing to get long there as the other indexes continued cruising higher. Instead I let it stop me out, I got emotionally overwhelmed about the reversal, and completely missed the long signal. Then all of that profit would have helped me stay objective when I bought the break out later, at a much higher price, and was desperate for the gains. It cascaded out of control, and that was not the ideal way to trade.

12:30 Been watching the price oscillate between the ATH and ONH, which is obviously bullish price action. The VPOC moved to that level as well from well lower, also bullish. So I took a stab at the last bullish price action from the lower area. I am comfortable in this area, and could have even added another contract when it moved a little lower to get a better price, and been comfortable with it. So price made a move to the upside then broke back down the VPOC where my entry is. It's now been close to a half hour, so I don't know if I should close it out and wait, or wait it out. I feel like the market may try to move lower again to take out stops before it moves higher. Will wait for a DT failure or some other price action to get me out. It has definitely made a DB recently so that is confirming my thinking. Broke out, then pulled back hard, tightened my stop, and then broke higher again. Got out for plus 10 points, when the market didn't hold at the pivot. Only thing I am a little disappointed about is I didn't watch the LVN at the pullback.

So the market traded through the LVN, but then found support at the value area, and bounced in search of higher prices. I am seeing this after it happened, as I had no idea to even look for this. Broke out to new highs, and hit my original target. Volume profile seems to be very instrumental in reading market behavior. I understand that a lot of my original beliefs are coming under scrutiny, as I learn more about how the market moves. Most of them wrong. So the sooner I can convert these wrong beliefs, to terms of probability, and finding evidence to anticipate market moves, the quicker my learning curve will be. Like this last trade, I had a 30 point target. How did I justify that? I don't know seemed good, but in reality the R1 pivot was the first resistance at the markets new ATH. So when I was at 20 points profit, and was above the R1 I should have taken it. Next once we bounced at the value area, and traded through the R1 level, we ran right to the R1 mid line. At new highs, this is more than likely what all traders were looking for, other than that, the round number of 17,700.

I had a 10 ema, and a 20 ema on my chart, so I figured if I condensed that to a 15 ema it might turn out well. So far so good.

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Last edited by lovetotrade; November 18th, 2014 at 05:19 PM.
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Old November 19th, 2014, 05:37 PM   #22 (permalink)
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11/19

Bonds in a downtrend this morning, has a chance to make a good solid double bottom here, but indexes also weak. Central pivot has been overnight resistance twice, and S1 midline is overnight support, so we have a pretty tight range. I think continuation higher is less likely at this point, but the bonds did break to new lows, so we will have to watch volume at the open. Dow looks to be the weakest index again as ES and NQ double bottomed at building permit report, and Dow made new lows then bounced.

Big trade idea is that we double bottom at the midline so I can get in long, and then the market breaks to new highs today. Although we may best the central pivot first, and then go for it.

So the bond market continued to break down, and then the indexes jumped higher, so I guess that is all the info I needed. But it would have made much more sense, and probably would have taken a trade if the Dow had double bottomed, instead of stretching my risk out to new lows.

So this morning's open gave me something similar to my big trade idea to work with. We quickly slammed down all the way to test yesterday's lows, then reversed very hard there, all the way back up through the overnight low, and the midline. This tells me that price was definitely not accepted lower, and the bullish action around the ONL told me there were definitely buyers there. So I just got in as close to the midline as possible. Planning to hold there for a test of the overnight high, as the range was only 36 points. And apparently that is not what the market had in mind, definite weakness throughout the indexes all though the Dow held the selloff the best. But all the indexes did break lower, so I got out with a tight stop.

So the market came right down to S1, and then reversed. This falls in line with my extreme value buying idea. To buy the first pivot support that is below the trending 8 hour 10 ema, if you see buying come in, and can get a low risk entry. Both of these were true, and I missed my entry by 1 point, as I didn't really have a plan of attack once I saw those conditions being met. So my plan for the next time that happens is to just place an entry 5 points from the low. Keeps it super low risk in case it doesn't work out. Cause at these levels, the market could continue to sell, and turn into a nice downward trending day. You just never know.

So I didn't take the 5 minute short squeeze signal at 10:00. I guess that large buying tail from the open just messed with my mind too much. I watched the one minute break it, then retrace, the the three minute close back under it, which is the trigger. It fired off outside of my risk level, pulled right to where I could have gotten entry, and then watched it sell off. Cannot be doing that. It did retrace to my B/E level, but still I could have never known that, and would be missing out on more profits. IF the signals come, you have to take them.

The bonds never stopped selling off through the next decline of the indices, so I'm assuming that is telling me to not get too excited to the downside. Even though I am seeing more and more signs of a decline in the mix, this would make sense to be a point where the market turns everyone on its head, and goes long. As I'm writing this, the vix and bonds are finally catching a bid and the indexes are rolling back over. The Dow was definitely strongest, and the Nasdaq the weakest. Next time I notice that, I could definitely try looking for shorts on the NQ, where it was giving some great short signals, while the Dow was fighting the shorts every step of the way.

So I was definitely right about the S1 level, and my overall feel that it was really fighting the selloff, indicating strength. So I should have been watching harder for a bottom to form, but I really do not have the experience to know for sure that is what I was seeing, with the other markets still looking so weak. But then again the market isn't about assurances, it's about probabilities, so go figure that one out. Gotta be watching the market closely around those levels I expect to hold. Volume profile, and price action would have shown me everything I needed to see to have the confidence to buy there.

Noticing I should be paying the closest attention when I am looking for entry in a certain area, and also important areas of confluence. It seems for some reason that I am looking elsewhere sometimes when a good entry pops up. For some reason I did not set alarms, nor draw trendlines today, both of which affected my thought process negatively. Should make another morning checklist.

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Old December 1st, 2014, 01:16 PM   #23 (permalink)
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So I think having this nice long holiday weekend off has given my mind some vital rest away from the markets. Pretty happy about that, since for weeks prior I wasn't able to turn my mind off. I would go to bed thinking about it, and wake up early with my mind racing. Most definitely not the way I like to live my life.

I have made a major hurdle in as far as how I view the market, and how it is traded. I have really embraced the bigger picture in respect to the smaller time frames, and how large of a piece of the puzzle that is for my trading. My trading is evolving, and taking a new shape, but it is harder for me to explain just yet. So I have been just jotting my thoughts down as bullet points in my notebook at home. It helps me get the ideas out so I can clear my head.

When I joined this website I really thought I had this game almost figured out, and like the rest of times I had thought that, I was really just beginning to turn a new chapter. Although this time is different. I have had a good bit of experience, and some success under my belt now. I am able to quickly filter and discard unneeded information, and make sure that good information is kept close by, and put to good use. So my learning curve is accelerating, I just have not been giving my self enough time to digest all the new info, and have been burning myself out in the process.

So my goal is to get my act together, along with a new game plan for the new year. I have been back on the demo account since the beginning of last week testing my new ideas out. I have had some success so far, and am optimistic for the final outcome. Hardest part is organizing all this new info, and turning it into a trading plan. But I am looking forward to the challenge.

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Old December 1st, 2014, 01:41 PM   #24 (permalink)
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12/1

So the first thing I noticed this morning, is that the weekly and daily pivots were lined up today. I generally look to see if any longer term pivots(weekly/monthly) line up with any dailies, cause it usually ends up being pretty strong S/R during the session. But since they all lined up, it pretty much negated that idea. But price did happen to double bottom overnight at the S2 level, so when we opened up and sold off, I was looking for a re-test of this level to hold.

The biggest thing I missed was the huge volume spike that came in, and halted the market at that level once we got there. these are all things I would be looking for, for an intermediate bottom to be put in. Generally when big buyers have come in at these levels, we rally to R1's and R2's the next day. So as long as we stay strong today, and don't make new lows, then I am looking for the market to consolidate/rally through tonight, and into tomorrow. We did put a nice double top in on the 8 hour chart last week, so that very well may hold. Will have to wait and see.

We rallied hard for a hundred points after the morning retest of the overnight DB, which is the strongest rally I have seen in a while. Was able to snatch 40 points out of that, after a nice pullback to the S1/S2 mid-line. Have had one more decent 20-30 point trade via the 2 minute consolidating DT/DB strategy I am working on.

Still trying to determine exactly what to watch, and how often to watch it without straining myself.

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Old December 1st, 2014, 03:28 PM   #25 (permalink)
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12/1 Afternoon

Very solid double bottom along with a 5 min squeeze fired off long right at 12:45. I have been looking at taking lunch off from noon to one, because that is where most of the chop/false signals were located on the one minute chart. But now I see I should at least check it every 15 minutes, so I don't miss anything significant.

Another decent trade right at last week's close price stopped and reversed. Nice two part target hit relatively quick. I have decided that I need to definitely check all charts, every time the alarm goes off. I tend to take this for granted but it is so important. And I plan on keeping a list of important S/R levels starting in the morning, and add to it as the day goes on. So as we rally or sell off I have a quick reference of exactly what to look for.

Plenty of money to be made today. I only caught a couple of the trades because I got bored(the DEMO account does this to me). But this time is essential, and I need to stay as focused as possible. Tomorrow is another day!

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Old December 2nd, 2014, 04:20 PM   #26 (permalink)
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12/2

Key levels:
17880 All time highs
17839 Weekly/Overnight high
17808/809 Weekly close/Yday high
17768 Overnight reversal/Yesterday close
17755 Overnight low
17707 Yesterdays low

Not sure if having those levels at my disposal will help or not, but worth a try. So as I expected, several failed tests of the weekly S2 yesterday led to a rally through the R1/R2 mid-line overnight, but we couldn't hold those levels, and the market is now rejecting the weekly central pivot. This is pretty bearish going forward, until we clear and accept that level. ES & NQ much weaker overnight, so another case for the bears.

Our gap fill would be at 68, and we are at 90 now, so I can see us hitting a double bottom there before we test the weekly pivot again. But it's only 8:53 and the market is already cruising down, but I will be watching that level more closely now. This is making me think I can almost envision the TPO by thinking about how the market reacted to yesterday's HLC overnight. We did not come close to hitting yesterday's low, rallied 30 points beyond yesterday's high, and re-tested yesterday's close only to bounce hard and re-test the weekly pivot. So that puts things into perspective, and doesn't seem so bearish all of a sudden.

So market opened, and missed filling the gap by 5 points, then reversed and would have hit my target of 40 points. Kind of frustrating missing my entry by 3 points. It rallied right to the weekly pivot where I was expecting it to. Guess it means I am looking at the market the right way now. Definitely would not have anticipated this move two weeks ago. Looking to see if we can clear the weekly pivot, big volume today so a re-test of the highs at 880 might be in the cards today.

So my alarm stopped working this morning for my time intervals to check my charts, and that really hurt me as far as staying on top of things. I missed a key reversal pattern on the 5 minute chart where I was looking to get long on the 2 minute chart. I also missed the 15 minute squeeze that had a perfect pull back to it's ema, which would have given me two great low risk entries, and greatly reinforced the long trade. It is so important that I see these things since the majority of my time is spent staring at the smaller time frames.

I have felt in sync with the market today, I guess you could call it being in the zone. But I think I am just seeing more market patterns after looking for the right things, and a change in overall perspective. I guess I didn't let the market sway my opinion so much, the market seems to move with a purpose from one level to the next. And I think I am starting to identify opportunities where big money targets entries, and it's usually right after a place where the little guy(me/retail) would get stopped out at obvious S/R, cause me to change my mind about direction(losing focus on the bigger picture), and then the buyers would step in and take off without me. I feel like I can see it play out, and jump on board once I see my setup.

Overall pretty happy with my trading today, would have been a stellar day if I had gotten the 40 point trade from the gap fill, but overall happy with +40 points total. New strategy seems to be working, ultimately I would like to trade it with two contracts, but so far profitable with one. And sure enough we did make new ATH's today.

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Old December 3rd, 2014, 03:30 PM   #27 (permalink)
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12/3

Important levels: *No gap today
17933 Weekly R2
17886 New highs
17882 Overnight High failure
17870 Weekly R1
17841 Overnight Low/Double bottom
17837 Central pivot
17822 8 hour 10 ema
17815 Weekly pivot
17808 Weekly Close

Well we have been consolidating overnight above the central pivot, and very near the highs. Pretty much tested the high at 80 overnight then sold off into a double bottom just above the daily central pivot. I expect that level to hold. I will be a buyer at the double bottom, with a stop below the pivot. And if we fail there, I will try again at the weekly pivot with a stop below the weekly close. We are in an hourly squeeze, and if it does test those levels I expect it to fail to the downside. This should be where the biggest gains today will be found.

So I need to have a back up plan for when the trade doesn't go my way, or in other words, have a plan for multiple scenarios. The slam down at open today again missed my entry by a few points, and reversed hard. Which tells me buyers were again looking in the same area I was. The only thing I see that I missed was a LVN close to the bottom, that price rejected, and bounced from. I don't know if this was a value area from yesterday, but I am going to pursue more advanced software for this purpose. I was also looking at the 5 minute chart, when I should have been watching my 2 and 1 minute charts at the open. They can reveal a lot of information in the underlying bars on the 5 minute chart. There was a 3 bar reversal that I could have jumped on board with, when the market reversed out of my buy zone. Have to remain flexible.

Gonna do some more back testing on the 15 minute squeezes, and pullbacks to its ema. It is typically the best trending time frame of the day, and I can still sometimes get the same R:R as the 5 minute chart. Just seems to be an obvious opportunity I need to be taking advantage of, that I am not currently. When the market is trending via a 15 minute squeeze, the best entry seems to be blind at an LVN, and then maybe a stop on the other side of the HVN of the same value area. If it coincides with the ema then even better.

That's it for today, pretty much a dud except for the opening range. Using the down time to learn more about price action.

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Old December 3rd, 2014, 05:47 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Nice journal, keep it up.

Have you considered...
  1. Seasons - What direction does the market usually trend this time of year? Presidential cycle? Macro fundamental environment? What are currencies doing?
  2. Individual stocks - since you trade YM (30 stocks) do you know what's going on with those stocks? If one of the stocks in the Dow 30 came out with bad news the night before, don't you think that might put a drag on the Dow? Does that come into play? This is much easier to do with YM than with ES, TF or NQ.
  3. Higher time-frame trend - What if you only looked for trades in the direction of the higher time frame trend direction, higher than 10min or 15min charts? Like 4hour, daily, or weekly?
  4. Why don't you have/use the momentum part of the squeeze that JC uses for direction choosing?

Hope all the best for you...

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Old December 4th, 2014, 10:16 AM   #29 (permalink)
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Sweet, well the ECB press conference seemed to give a bit of an oversold market, down into some of my key buy areas. So after a couple small stop outs, hoping that I got the low for the day. Will post my results and thoughts later today. Target is just below the highs at 70 points, or exit at EOD.

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Added another contract, and reduced stop by half. Re-testing that area(S1), so if we bottom here, gains will now be twice as big. And just got stopped out lol. Today is fundamentally different from previous days. Will be watching action around S2, but no longer looking for a bottom to buy. I guess the failed double top at the central pivot was really my first heads up

This was the trade I did catch after it bottomed: Doesn't get much prettier than that.
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Last edited by lovetotrade; December 4th, 2014 at 05:25 PM. Reason: update
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Old December 4th, 2014, 10:53 AM   #30 (permalink)
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shodson View Post
Nice journal, keep it up.

Have you considered...
  1. Seasons - What direction does the market usually trend this time of year? Presidential cycle? Macro fundamental environment? What are currencies doing?
  2. Individual stocks - since you trade YM (30 stocks) do you know what's going on with those stocks? If one of the stocks in the Dow 30 came out with bad news the night before, don't you think that might put a drag on the Dow? Does that come into play? This is much easier to do with YM than with ES, TF or NQ.
  3. Higher time-frame trend - What if you only looked for trades in the direction of the higher time frame trend direction, higher than 10min or 15min charts? Like 4hour, daily, or weekly?
  4. Why don't you have/use the momentum part of the squeeze that JC uses for direction choosing?

Hope all the best for you...


1) I do consider seasonals, which leads me to be a bit extra bullish, but I feel like it takes a back seat right now. With the market making new highs pretty much every day, and consolidating overnight near them, I feel like it doesn't get much more bullish than that. I have watched so many double tops on the one hour chart, watch the market start to sell off into a lower pivot level, and then boom big hands come in, and we have a multi day rally. I know it will not last forever, but it is a pattern that has been repeating basically since the October lows(have not looked back further into the year yet).

2) I appreciate the idea about actually keeping tabs on the 30, hadn't thought of that. It would be awesome if I could find/put together a heat map of the 30 I could watch throughout the day as well. Will try to come up with something I can use.

3) I actually use an 8 hour chart with the daily/weekly/monthly pivots on them, along with a 10 ema. Helps me really see the big picture at a glance. Whether we are trending, where major support and resistance is(maybe a double bottom lined up with a monthly/weekly pivot), and major trend lines. When we are really trending I drop down to the 4 hour chart. Lately my big trade idea of the day is to watch where the 8 hour ema is between which two pivots, and one of the two ends up being the low for the day. So I know which levels to stalk if we get down there, and set some big targets to start the day off right. The sell off has been occurring right after the open as of late. But I do like to watch how the market reacts to key levels during the day, but still trying to figure out how to trade around those levels along with volume profile. I have one strategy I am trying out that involves the squeeze, and is fairly consistent. I actually have my main trade screen set up with a 5/15/1 hour chart for drilling down.

4) I have been using the squeeze long enough to where that aspect of it really doesn't do anything for me anymore. As you can see in my most recent chart, it tried testing the upside, and when momentum broke to the downside it was obvious it was heading lower. One of my favorite setups is a trending squeeze on a higher time frame, and the squeeze sets up on the 5 minute. You would think that would be consistent in breaking out with the trend, and that's not always the case either. It's hit or miss trying to get on the train early, but as of late I have not been a big fan of buying the breakouts, especially since the daily range has been contracting. But I do use momentum to watch strength, and generally don't buy pullbacks once the momentum starts to fall off. But you mentioned JC, and if what/he is using might be of help to me please shoot me a link. I will hit the search box in case it is a journal you are referring too.

I appreciate you taking the time to toss me some wisdom, always appreciated!

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