Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
So here is an update of my current status. So it looks like I had hit a high of $1,115 before my previous loss of around a hundred. All this information is represented pretty good in my scatter plot, and equity curve. I will use a company like Tradervue to track my stats for me once I am out of the combine, but for now I can see everything I need for free through excel and the combine statistics.
I am at 40% win/loss ratio which is fine/normal for me, and working hard to maintain a 2:1 or higher reward/risk. Recently slipped back below 2 by a small margin. Most importantly for me you can see my larger win $ amounts increasing in size, while losses only increase slightly on the worst of days. This is what I am working hard on, pushing my winning days harder in size traded and larger profits. My largest winning day increased to almost $400, and I was still disappointed as I had left quite a bit of money on the table that day. This is good, you must always be hungry for more even when you are trading at your best. It's that appetite that helps you grow.
I have found through experience, that my best days come when the ADR is expanding, usually from a clear breakout on the daily charts, and the market is trending. This is when I need to throw caution to the wind, and put out more risk. I think it was Bella from SMB who had said when you know you are in the environment where you kill it, you must be willing to take more shots on the same setups than usual. That may mean stretching my usual max risk on the day in order to get the job done. That really spoke to me as I had believed for a while that I had to stick to my daily loss no matter what, but days where if I had taken one more shot I would have raked in a massive day. Instead I ended down and defeated, knowing I now had a hole to climb out of instead. Obviously I am not talking about risking a ton more than normal, but a stretch beyond your normal limit here is probably ok and healthy. We must adapt to the market while maintaining control on risk, while being open to opportunity. Say what!? It's confusing but critical.
My largest drawdown came from a whole month of missing the only 5 trend days available. They were either on Thursdays which I don't trade, or setups I don't take. After digging as deep as I could, I ended up having to settle for the answer that sometimes this just happens. Now it is documented, and when it happens in the future I will be ready for it. Aha! Another good reason you should be journaling if you are not!
Last thing I just noticed before posting. If you look in the top left of my charts in the pic I posted, you can see today was a trend day after news came out this morning, and the 5 minute chart hit the 3k volume level several times. Low and behold we beat the ADR 75 and just hit a hundred point range for the morning! Coincidence? No way.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
The last thing I wanted to go over was my use of the weekly and daily TPO for context. I use the weekly and daily charts also for direct trend, and support resistance levels although obviously we don't interact with those too much on the intraday time frame. Like I said I like to keep things simple, and that means minimizing time spent in every area as much as possible, only to extract what we actually need. We all know how easy it is to get sucked into looking at patterns, and old charts, well it is if you are a chart junkie like me! I have learned there is no time like the present, stare at live moving charts it's a much better use of time.
Ok so we will start with the weekly chart. This is my guage on market direction, forest from the trees if you will. That's another thing that I will attribute to my success as of late, and that is really an emphasis on larger yet releveant charts. Focus on the big picture, and you won't get spooked out of every move against you.
So each previous day as well as week has a value area based on the TPO charts. I focus on the value area high, value area low, and volume point of control for each.(VAH,VAL,VPOC) On each time frame(day/week) I consider us trending if the market is working outside of or looking to break out of the VAH/L. IF we are inside of value, you will be amazed how the market works very predictably from one level to the next testing value before moving to the next. This was a game changer for me, and gave me reference levels and context for my beloved VWAP(s).
So let's get into some charts. I gotta throw another shout out to @Inletcap who gave me the information needed, and inspired me to go out on my own to make some pretty awesome discoveries. Miss that guy.
First chart is just a weekly TPO chart. You can see where the value area is highlighted in the darker blue, I specifically use that as my reference for VAH/L and the pink is the VPOC, obviously where the most volume was traded that week. I use the previous week as reference for the current week.
Next we are going to focus on the weekly VWAP, this frames our price action. For instance here, we may be outside of value on the weekly TPO, but if we are not outside of the 1st standard deviation band then we are technically in range and not currently trending. To be clear I am always looking for and in anticipation of us breaking out into a trend, as that is where I excel. Bear with me I will try to include as many examples as possible. So for example if we are outside of the 1SD on the weekly VWAP, and coming upon the VAH it would not be uncommon for the market to test the VAH, then come back to the 1SD before breaking out higher. I believe it is just part of the market's auction process to seek out buyers and sellers by testing areas of value.
In our next image, we have the open Sunday evening. You can see the open drive to test the VAL of the previous week, and we actually bounce between Friday's value and VAL a few times before the market breaks lower. We begin to trend outside of the Weekly 1SD lower, all trend requirements have been met and we should be selling rallies. Any trips to 1SD or Weekly VWAP should be selling opportunities, but you can see in the white box we make a transition and now W VWAP acts as support, and ultimately we break out to the upside after testing the VAL a few more times. So this tells us a few things right? We could not test last week's low before breaking back above weekly VAH, and this is a serious sign that the decline on the larger timeframe is in jeopardy. You could use this information to begin a long swing position, the possibilities are endless.
Next we are a little later in the week, looks like Wednesday to be exact and we haven't moved much. This is a 1500 vol chart one of my favorites by the way. So we are still hanging out near last week's VAL, and we have a news catalyst this morning at 8:30. You can see by the arrows that we have a downward bias based on the previous' days VWAP, and spending most of the morning/overnight below it. 8:30 news hits, yesterday VWAP is tested before the market takes a dive, but we come back inside of the 1SD and consolidate before blasting through the weekly VWAP and VAL higher. Next is the white line and arrow which is the VAH of the previous day which can create some of the largest reversal days you will see as everyone positioned on the wrong side is skewered. First higher time frame target is the weekly VPOC which is tested about three times before breaking out higher, and if you held overnight weekly VAH becomes your next target representing a full reversal on the weekly time frame. This kind of stuff happens over and over every week and every day, and this theory applies to every market!
Then for more precise entries, I use volume and the daily value areas and confluence to see where I want to do business. All of these things help me form my thesis for the day, and I will also pick out the most likely thing to happen if my thesis fails and that is called your trading plan for the day. Hope someone got something out of my rambling .
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
So I was thinking this morning about how much of this game is psychological, and how important it is to have your mind focused on the right things, and in the right way to be successful. I think we all would like to assume that our goals are pretty in line with the general thought that we come to the markets to make money, though I doubt most spend much time thinking of what it takes to get there, or if they do, then if they are aligned with reality. Just the general action and movement in the markets makes you want to do something, not sit around and think. Especially with one click trading, just click the button! You can assess what happened later. (Literally as my daughter walks over to my keyboard asking what a button did, and wanting to touch it! It's in our nature.) This is so wrong, but what you need to do is so counter-intuitive it makes us all struggle to one degree or another.
I believe that what you have learned about market movement, your strategy, your understanding/misunderstanding of profitability, etc. so I guess you could say your collective knowledge about trading, and your psychological beliefs about trading will have a direct impact on the way you trade. Now after I have laid it out like that, it all seems very obvious, but if those thoughts and beliefs shape the way we trade, and in essence how successful we are, then why don't we spend more time thinking about them? I do not have the answer to this if you were waiting for it, just writing out my thoughts . So I think we talk about risk, strategies, and statistics so much more because they are the exciting aspects to trading. It is where the rubber meets the road, and gives us direct feedback of what we need to adjust or change to make more money. But until you have truly grasped the psychological aspects of successful trading, it is very possible and easy to get caught up in the trap of knowing what you need to do, and then not being able to execute. Maybe you know what you need to do, but not the why. This is why we also can fall into the trap of thinking we need more discipline, when it is so much deeper than that! God knows how many times I have been there.
Also maybe this is just part of everyone's journey, the sad part being those who quit before they seek the right questions. It does take time and experience to learn to ask the right questions, do you know how many aha! moments I have had over the last 7 years? Moments that I thought would translate into my success? As for me I am quite stubborn, and it took me a long time to start asking the right questions. Much longer than necessary, but I made it to that point finally. Perseverance winning out.
Profitability boils down to one thing, and that is making more money than we lose right? How do we get there? Cutting losses short, letting winners run? Home runs, base hits, or a combination? They say there are a million ways to make money in the markets, but which one do we take? Trading is simple, but not easy they say. The truth there is astounding, but essentially useless as those other cliche's listed unless you take the time to peel back the layers of the deeper meaning(think never ending onion lol).
I guess all I am trying to say or ask is, how much time do you spend thinking about the important aspects of trading vs. the physical aspect of it? I am almost of the belief you should be spending more time thinking about it, and expanding your knowledge and beliefs, than you should be trading. We want to grow our accounts by stretching and working out our risk muscles, but how much are you growing psychologically in your trading? Most of us are impressed by @Big Mike, and his journey here laid out so publicly for us to read and have followed, but I think it is easy to read through his knowledgeable posts, and miss one of the most important facts. His insatiable appetite for growth in all aspects helped him achieve his desire of becoming a wildly profitable trader.
Are you growing? Do you have a plan for growth? May your growth this year lead you to new equity highs!
Gonna cross post this in the trading psychology section.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Ok time for real life application. Since I trade a very specific time frame(7a.m. to noon) on the 6B, I use a 14 ADR of that specific 300 minute time period as a contextual tool during the day. I use the context from the daily time frame to help me decide what to do with the ADR. I think I mentioned that if we are breaking out and trending, then it will usually result in an expanding ADR as volatility comes into the market, and my targets should actually be higher than the ADR, and I should be pushing trades(holding vs. taking profit aggressively). And in most other circumstances I use the number as a potential to where we could go, but will set larger targets within that number, and will generally take profits more aggressively. I believe that knowing(should say attempting to know) how to take profits efficiently is key in pulling the most money from the markets each day.
So I will use this information to give me confidence in taking my trades as well, as I am very intentional about the process as a whole. So if we are outside of value, I have determined the trend is higher, the ADR is 70, then even if we move 20 points below VWAP(my long/short guage) before popping back above VWAP, then I know I still have 50 points potential range left on the day, and that is plenty for me to attempt to get aggressively long. Without the context you may look at the day and say, well it went down a bit, so maybe I need to attempt to short it, or well it's going higher now, but I'm not sure how much higher it will go on the day so I will place a small long here to see what happens. Like I have said, I love consistency in all my systems, and they should work together in harmony. This was an example of my old thinking vs. how I operate now.
I want to know where I am likely to pull the most money out of the market, and I will develop my plan based around that first thing. I want asymmetric returns, and my focus is to maximize those returns as much as possible.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
I've had a lot of these thoughts running through my head lately but have a hard time putting them down on paper (keyboard?)
I agree on my own journey that the psychological aspect has been.. interesting. It can be quite entertaining to learn about yourself by being mindful during and self reflection after trading. Some of the things I've learned about myself, I don't know that I ever would have had I not started to trade!
Awareness makes it possible for us to examine and alter these behaviours to our benefit. Yet another muscle that needs working out
Absolutely my friend, and glad to hear you are doing it! I don't know what it is man, journaling is like good for the soul! I absolutely agree, you learn so much about yourself during this process. Your tendencies, your desires, your fears, your shortcomings.... it honestly takes a strong person to truly go through the hoops of successful trading. It's honestly pretty easy to see why so many people blow up and quit. If I had known how long, and how hard this was going to take and be, I am not sure I would have started or stuck it out. Kind of a blessing in disguise as it is a really fulfilling journey. And only us traders will ever truly appreciate the sacrifice needed and made!
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
I am a subscriber to Adam Grimes' blog(which is top notch by the way), and he recently made a new post about a comparison between a knife sharpening routine and trading. Excellent and very in depth, and he hit on some points I made in a couple of my previous posts. So I thought I would throw up a link here as it's a great read.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
This honestly might be a game changer for me. I have been waiting for the Topstep Forex option for a while now, and it's finally here! I love the ability to change my size by a minimal amount as my confidence and profitability changes with the mini or micro lot options, versus a full options contract which represent almost too much risk when trying to scale in the 30k futures combine. When going from one, to two, to three full contracts creates very wild swings in the PnL in such tight risk parameters, as where in my opinion you can fine tune this using more mini/micros.
So I have some thinking to do. I have been trading my cash forex account with great success the last couple weeks, and scaling in/out is just so vital to my success there, along with being able to test the waters with a scaled down position, and add as my confidence increases. In essence it allows me to be able to trade to my full potential and strengths, and when I think about having to trade one lots through the rest of the current combine, again through the FTP, then again through a funded account it makes me cringe. So I may have just made up my mind. Anyone feel free to chime in!
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
I think this is a great idea and if it exposes your strengths as a trader then keep it going. Path of least resistance and all that. You can scale in and out with ease using multiple contract sizes as defined by your money management rules and comfort levels! There is no downside you are in complete control
There are two good reasons (or at least, good for some traders) to do a Combine:
1. Working on your technique in an environment that is edgier and more real than pure no-risk sim, but that doesn't hurt you too much when you have problems.
2. Getting funded if you're not able or willing to put up your own money.
From what you wrote, it doesn't seem that either apply. You're doing well with your trading, and you don't have a funding issue. I don't know anything about FX spot trading, so I don't know if the amount they would fund you with would come to a lot or a little, nor if it would be a lot or a little to you, but it does look like you don't need it.
Although you've been waiting for this, perhaps you've also outgrown the need.... Just a thought, but it seems to be in line with what you were thinking.
.
