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Hey thanks for checking in. Just haven't had much to add lately that's all. Still stagnating around the 50% profit target to the combine unfortunately. Lost most of September due to hurricane Irma, and trading opportunities have been a little bit harder to come by here in October. But I have been thinking about doing another fairly extensive write up on how my trading has evolved over the last couple of months, which is pretty exciting collectively. Stats are still good, just patiently waiting every day to exploit my edge.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Well, first post in a while. Major news is that we bought our first home on Feb 10th, so I took a month off trading to focus on getting that in good shape and ready for our young family. First day back in the saddle, and just plan on observing this week to slowly transition into my daily routine. I had hit a good stride right up to taking time off, and life has been very balanced. Trading has been very enjoyable for me as of late, perhaps due to becoming more consistently profitable, and understanding more of what has attributed to that. I started trading my cash account alongside the combine to start building that acccount(real money though small account), and because it is a small account I can grow in small appropriate steps there, and trade in the way I envision myself as a successful trader as I continue to develop and grow. I was up 10% in this account in the month of January alone, without taking any outsized risks. That is exciting, although I know market conditions were very favorable for my style of trading.
A big milestone that I just realized is that I have been in the combine for a year now, I believe as of tomorrow. You could look at this as a good or a bad thing, and while I can see both, I choose to look at the great developments that have come from it. It has forced me to scale back my expectations from both performance and trading income. It has forced me to become very disciplined in my morning routine, and rigorously process oriented and driven so that once I am done with the combine I am truly set up for success. This is a bit different than when I had just deposited funds into an account and started trading on my own. The motivation to get out of paying someone a monthly fee by learning to trade correctly has been greater than just sitting at my computer each day. Although this may be a little short sighted since that was already four years ago, and a lot changes in that kind of time frame! It is also possible that it is absolutely true and is one of my flaws, but I have developed and persevered enough over the years that like many other things, I will not let it determine the ultimate outcome of my success in trading.
To recap some actual trading stuff, I am getting closer to finishing the combine. After hitting a peak of almost $900 profit I slid all the way back to zero, before driving the account back up to $1100 last I checked. I realized that there are a couple ways you can go about the combine to complete it, one is to take outsized risks and swing for the fences every trade, and you are probably likely to hit the profit target before the stop loss sooner than later. Or you can scale the account risk wise to allow for your edge to play out, and continue to learn and grow while you do it. I obviously chose the latter, and am much better off for it. I thought it made no sense to rush through the combine(as I have beaten one before) just to get to funded trader prep with essentially the same issues to work through. I understand my edge so much better than before, what normal drawdowns in my equity curve look and feel like, when it makes sense to scale up and scale back, and which market conditions to really go for the gusto. These things are truly priceless to a trader as we grow in our processes. Sure I wish they came quicker, but who is to say what that is suppose to look like for each individual. What I do know is that the money I paid for the combine is part of my tuition, and a drop in the bucket for what I will reap in the coming years!
One of the last things I wrote in my journal was this.
True Success:
True success in your trading will come from full conviction in your thesis, and understanding the current market environment in which to take profits correctly.
That's it. The ability to take what you've learned, intuition and all, and put your money where your mouth is. Then know when to push your trades, and when to set a target and be happy with what you get for the day. There it is, the definition of simple but not easy.
I have been working hard to simplify all my processes. I now use daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly VWAP and bands to analyse trending vs. range conditions on multiple time frames. I use daily and weekly TPO charts for the VAH, VAL, and VPOC levels they create along with previous S/R to contextually frame price action, and form thesis and profit targets based on the ADR. I also use specific volume levels to guage the strength of a move and potential reversals. It's so ingrained in my DNA I just start to see the story unfold after looking at my charts for a few minutes, I don't even have to think much about it anymore. It's the most enjoyable trading has been for me as each day presents new challenges as no two days are alike, but once the market gets moving a lot of the same things come in to play.
I hope everyone is enjoying their process of trading, and thanks to anyone who reads my journal. I wish I had more time to spend on here, and perhaps that will change one day, but it's all part of the balance. My family wins out in the time game, my little ones will only be little for so long.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
great to hear from you again!Congrats on the new house, thats huge.Im liking your comments very much.I dont remember you using vwap as of a few months ago, and i agree with your statements.I went back and forth with Fat Tails, and he mentioned TWAP.I put that up as well, and it was similiar enough to vwap.Im only using the daily vwap as of now, and for me , it gives me a feel for context.In currencies, volume is sketchy, and that was always on my mind...However, as i mentioned , just from a contextual point of view, it is helpful...not to mention, when price penetrates a pivot/vwap together, the pb to that level can be very nice to trade from.Looking forward to hearing more from you, and best of luck with the new house!Im sideline currently, as we are doing renovations and it just isnt possible to trade for a bit..Cheers,Bob
Congrats on all of that stuff man! Family, house, combine, live trading... the man has it all, folks Seriously, glad to hear you are doing well. Don't be a stranger!
Thanks so much! I will try not to be, I love this community and spending time here. Like I said I am just a bit stretched but I will try harder
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Thanks Bob! It is huge, and the projects keep coming, but it is ours and working hard to make it something we can be proud of.
As for VWAP I really want to post all that information in more detail. The daily VWAP is very important for me, but just one piece of the puzzle, and once I realized how it all fit together it made reading the market a breeze. Consistency was key, and I was able to stop looking for anything else to see market context as a whole.
Volume is a funny animal in currencies, but as for currency futures(at least as far as the Pound goes) there is some consistency there worth paying attention to. I spent a lot of time trying to develop volume into a leading indicator, which is actually in my journal somewhere, but in the last six months I have found a couple common occurences that happen a bit too often to be coincidence. I chalk it up to a set of larger traders(have no idea how many) who carry a lot of size, and is quite obvious when they enter the market. And a large move is usually not far behind.
Like if you watch the one minute time frame, and set a horizontal line at the 400 volume mark, you can see the market either in trend or beginning to trend on a very consistent basis. I use this as a confirmation when I am in the market pushing for a certain direction. This volume level also is at the extremes of most range days, so helps to spot those types of days as well. Also on the 5 minute timeframe, plot a horizontal line at the 3000 volume level. There are some consistencies there with very large trend days, and when I get an alert of these bars then I become aware that we could be attempting to push outside of ADR H/L and that I should become more aggressive, not looking to exit. So I just use them for becoming aware and alert to what is happening in the market and what it might mean. It's just information, but for me valuable.
Thanks for the kind words guys, have a great night!
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Right on man, would love to hear your thoughts on volume as I have been using it extensively in my trading, looking to learn everything I can about it. Have a great one!
Good to have you back, and all this sounds very good. I had no idea that you have been continuously on a combine for so long. I do agree with what you said about tuition.
I also like the part about enjoying the process. Sometimes I do, sometimes I don't, but I like the idea....
Thanks Bob, good to hear from you. It is all about the process man, focus on the process and the money will come. Focus on the money, and well you know how that goes lol. I have learned to fall in love with the process, and my focus there has helped me become more disciplined in my real time execution.
And yes, a whole damn year in the combine. The only part that has me wondering about the whole thing, is that I have only been under water twice the entire time, and neither were for very long. So technically I could be putting that $150 a month back into a cash account, but either way like I said, paying that money every month has helped me take it more seriously and keep my game face on, where I have been a bit more complacent in an account funded by myself. I now absolutely have a professional mindset and process to go along with it, along with a plan for growth etc. So that money was well spent, although the wife is getting a little weary of the withdraw every month. But I do believe I am on the last leg of the combine journey, and hope the FTP will not last as long. Like I said I have dialed back my expectations even though I am getting better.
I think I will post some stats today along with some charts.
Take care Bob, and thanks for checking in!
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
So the only thing I can really add to the previous post about volume, is that I really like to track price action and volume together on the smaller time frame. I am using a combination of time and volume charts currently, but if I did not watch volume I would probably only use volume charts as they move more with the flow of the market, and smooth out the VWAP as larger volume comes in.
So for example, yesterday( I know I said I wasn't going to trade this week), but the setup was so sweet and I traded it very small. We got a nice move lower after failing to breach Weekly VWAP, and the market headed straight down into Friday's VPOC and VWAP cluster(two purple lines), before giving me a reversal signal and flying back above VWAP(very bullish). This shows me that we tested Friday's value and there were buyers waiting there. I could go into a little more detail about the longer term charts, but this is all I really need to get interested in a long.
On the rally to VWAP we hit 400 volume, and then pushed right through the VWAP levels(weekly/daily). This specifically got my attention. Once we got back to VWAP I wanted to get long, and since we sliced right through VWAP on the way up, chances are good that we may chop back through to the downside which it did. So I got my entry average actually just below VWAP, and once we made that swing low my stop went in 4 points below it. You can also see 400 sell volume come in on that trip back to and through VWAP so caution was warranted, I needed to be ready to bail if we took a dive, but conviction in my thesis allowed me to actually buy at a better price(below VWAP) instead of bail.
Then we got the large 2k vol spike and the rest is pretty much history, and if I was not already in I have learned that the spike is a good entry even though it seems scary. That high sell volume prior provided fuel for takeoff as sellers had their faces ripped off. 1st 2/3rds profit off at ONH, and took the rest at a previous resistance area above. I could have continued to buy pull backs at that point, but like I said I wasn't even suppose to be trading and that was some very easy money so I ran and continued to observe.
I will add one more thing, ADR was 72 for Monday so even though we did not get there all the way that day, I knew the market had plenty of room to run once we got above VWAP. Focusing on that number when the market is trending and ADR is expanding, is how you push and grow your account by huge leaps at a time!
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Seriously, glad to hear you are doing well. Don't be a stranger!
The only part that has me wondering about the whole thing, is that I have only been under water twice the entire time, and neither were for very long. So technically I could be putting that $150 a month back into a cash account, but either way like I said, paying that money every month has helped me take it more seriously and keep my game face on, where I have been a bit more complacent in an account funded by myself. I now absolutely have a professional mindset and process to go along with it, along with a plan for growth etc. So that money was well spent, although the wife is getting a little weary of the withdraw every month. But I do believe I am on the last leg of the combine journey, and hope the FTP will not last as long. Like I said I have dialed back my expectations even though I am getting better.