Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Well what a day! Big swings in my PnL, but captured my daily profit target so I am happy. The market did what I thought it was going to do, just not when I thought it would. I was able to course correct once I let my nerves settle down. I also realized afterwards that I was being quite a bit too aggressive with my scale target, although it definitely was achievable. I missed the exhaustion bar warning, and paid the price. All good things though, no harm done, and created a positive learning experience. Also helped me to realize that I need to plan in the morning whether I need to be a bit more aggressive in taking quick profits vs. holding for a larger move based on the overnight and larger structure.
---------------------------------------------------
Holding these moves longer, and positioning correctly is definitely helping see the day more clearly. An important facet to trading is knowing when you need to cut quickly and run vs. hold through an adverse move. I am definitely getting better at that.
We moved higher overnight and spiked through Monthly VWAP, then pulled back to weekly VWAP. I got long after we broke daily VWAP, and then pulled back. After accumulating some profits, we got a great deep pullback to add a second contract on. My original first target was 2 points below overnight high, so I kept that as my first target, hoping to break ONH and carry the second contract to trend. Well we got within one point of my target, and then reversed all the way down to VWAP. Let me tell you what, it is hard to watch 39 points of profit vanish before your eyes. I don't watch profit while I am trading, but I started adding up where I was at as the market fell. I shouldn't have hesitated to capture some/all of that. But I am really trying hard to hold longer to make the most of larger days, although there is a time and a place for that.
I exited the scale contract at B/E, and then re-added another contract on the PB down to VWAP. Decided I wasn't willing to lose more than 10 points to find out if this was going to be a V bottom reversal. Which thank the good Lord it was. Held both to the previous high for 40 points. Done for the day, although the market did move out of overnight levels and begin to trend.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
So many times do I predict almost exactly what is going to happen, and I guess my measure of performance will be how well I capture those moves. Part of figuring out this process has been to focus more on my strengths, and handicap my weaknesses. So when I see a day that presents possible range vs. a trending session, then I do become more risk averse, and look for high quality setups that have good potential. I mentioned this a while back, most days will maintain or at least slowly grow the account, while good trend days exploit strengths in my edge, and more aggressive account growth should happen here. I am starting to see each day unfold, and visualize how it should play out in the grander scheme of things, in terms of my trading and aggressiveness. Obviously this is a work in progress for me, but I really feel like things are starting to come together well for me.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Trade 1 was a typical VWAP continuation trade to the downside. We really came off the highs of the strong HTF trend last night, and when we broke weekly +1SD this morning I was looking for continuation initially. Well we got a vertical move to the downside, and that usually means a hard bounce, so scalped a quick 20 points close to the lows to help build up the bank.
Missed the next VWAP trade as it really looked like we were going to start moving higher, after all the struggling to go lower below VWAP previously. Would have been a great trade though, vertical move to VWAP, broken trend line entry. Broke to new lows then it appeared that OTF volume came in and reversed us back out of the top, in line with the HTF trend. Now looking for a pull back to get long from.
Trade 2 got the pull back to VWAP, but it was late in the day so I exited the trade when volume didn't come in the way I expected. Never should have taken the trade if I wasn't going to give it some time to work out. Still moving significantly higher as I type this. Saw that coming.
Up for the last few days, and seem to have a good streak going, despite the lack of nice trending days, so I am encouraged by that. Seems to be that I am improving as a trader.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Another long weekend. Ready to have some solid weeks of focus. Will probably be posting a bit less to try to add better content, as a lot of days are fairly insignificant. So I am going to try to focus more on posting days where I have some particularly good/bad trading, and some lessons to boot since I am already journaling at home.
Not much to write home about this week. Was at my computer a couple days, but price action did not seem to fit my trade requirements much so didn't force anything. After feeling so great last week, another long weekend has really left me feeling out of sync with the market again, so trying to figure out exactly why that keeps happening. Part of that is trying to document my best practices for when I am trading great, in extra detail.
Have a great weekend!
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Pretty intense morning, and traded quite well despite one simple, but significant error that I will go over. Trying to take advantage of the volatility in these moves, even though we aren't trending very well in one particular direction. All in all I am doing quite well in this environment, which I'd like to think means am learning and growing.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trade 1. I initially wanted to short since we were at 4 levels of confluence which I assumed we would get a reaction from. After entering the trade I saw that I would have to take profit at VWAP initially, and that didn't lead to a good enough R:R to justify the trade so I got out. Really should have figured this out before I entered. Exited at B/E.
Trade 2. We stair stepped up though the levels, and then broke out higher. Waited for the pull back, and actually had to chase the entry a couple points higher, which I am glad I did cause otherwise I would have missed the move. It tagged my limit order twice with no entry. And here lies the mistake. I set my target to be just inside the weekly +2SD, initially because we came from the W -2SD earlier that morning and I thought we might test the other extreme. Main problem is that it was just outside the ADR high, and even though high volume came in, I should have had my target inside that level. It missed my limit order by one point, and then retraced 30 points! Fortunately the market came back, and I was able to get the majority of the move. So I call that a win despite the error, which is noted.
Trade 3. Pull back all the way to W VWAP and ONH, got entry with almost no heat and took a quick profit. Profit was totally psychological as I got to the profit level I should have been at from my original trade. Either way I got lucky and we failed just after. Daily profit target almost hit.
Trade stats continue to improve. John Hoagland said he wanted to see my winning trades/losing trades average a 2:1 or higher, and I am almost there. Feeling good! Tomorrow is a new day.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Wanted to give a shout out to my best bud in the whole wide world Adam if he swings by the journal today!
So today is a day that I really needed to kill it, but ended up with mediocre results even though I traded well. Really getting better/lucky on my entries lately, almost taking no heat on most of my trades. I'd like to say that the fact that I am only trading one contract is still really holding my true potential back, but part of that is not having a solid plan for adding to my trade once I am profitable, which I do allow myself to do. That would have really helped me today with attempting to jump into the vertical move when things really got cooking today. We had all the requirements checked off for a strong trend today, I was just still too conservative. It is quite difficult to balance being conservative 90% of days, and then try to kill it on the couple days a month the market goes wild. But perhaps the fact that I am able to actively identify those days more often is a significant move in the right direction.
------------------------------------------------------------------
This morning had several clues to the extreme trend we had today. Over night we had a smaller range than normal, that trended higher, but at a slow to moderate pace. We opened this morning with that continuation pattern breaking out to the upside. We were outside the first deviation band of the VWAP from this morning, along with being outside the 2SD of the Weekly VWAP, showing strong trending conditions on multiple time frames. All systems go. Then on top of that, you had the daily chart in an uptrend after finishing a pull back earlier this week, targeting the previous swing high. This was outside of the ADR high target for the day, so I kept the more modest target, and then would have plenty of profit to make another attempt if we kept on going.
Trade 1. We had a large eco report out at 8:30, but we broke higher just after 7 so I took an entry on the first pull back. We actually traded sideways until the report came out, so via my plan I exited as soon as my report alarm went off. Scratch trade.
Trade 2. After the report came out we broke out significantly higher, so once again I bought the first PB. We had kind of a choppy trend going for the first hour which was ok as we were making higher highs, and we were moving towards the target. Then I remembered we had a Fed speaker coming online at 9:30, and even though it wasn't a major announcement, I still know they have the tendency to move the market. So once we tested the recent high, and got a high vol sell bar at 9:30 I bailed. Looking for a pull back to enter the market lower from, instead the market reversed and went immediately to my target. Very frustrating.
Then in the next few bars we hit that daily swing high, then we broke higher, and higher from there. 120 pt range with 55 ADR. The error threw me off, and I was unable to enter again successfully as it moved ever so higher without me. If I had thrown another contract on earlier in the trade, I probably would have had the profit and the confidence to push the day, but who knows for sure. What I do know is that I need a plan for adding that second contract, especially when trend conditions are present. Another thing I am doing, is getting rid of non-major events from my calendar. I really would not have exited the second trade if it wasn't for my awareness of the event, even though nothing resulted, which happens 90% of the time. I would rather be surprised by the shock, and trade my way out of it than have this happen again.
New equity highs today, moving slowly but surely to the combine profit objective.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
Well to say the least, five months back into the combine program, I totally underestimated how long it was going to take to beat this thing. Fortunately I have used this time to exponentially improve my trading. I am constantly focusing on cutting out the garbage, and keeping only the simplest ideas that are proven to work, and logically make sense.
I have been gone a little while, but I have been working hard on my home journal. I have essentially eliminated any two sided trading intraday, and re-implemented my previous TPO/volume profile charts to focus on entering based on the previous days structure. This has aided my trading tremendously, and completely eliminates any chance of getting chopped up. I can focus on the market trend, and trade that trend phase appropriately, all while setting larger targets and leaving them alone. And sometimes it helps me get extremely lucky, as was the case today, but I couldn't have gotten lucky if I wasn't focused on the right variables.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Weekly VWAP sets my immediate direction focus. Long above/ short below. I am looking for the 30m chart to be in line with this direction(testing the 15m), and also for the market to have/setting up a trending daily VWAP in said direction. As we test nodes, VPOC, and VAH/L I am looking for the market to start auctioning in our direction.
Today was a little tricky because we had W-VWAP above, and Y-VWAP/Y-VPOC below. There was enough price action failure around W-VWAP and below to convince me I needed to be short, and daily trend was down. So I got almost the high of the morning session, held through various pull backs, and ended up nailing the low of the day. Just below the ONL.
I have decided I also need to remove as much of my discretion as possible from decision making while we are only on one contract. I only tend to miss-interpret counter trend market information, and really just need to let the market do its thing. So my R:R should continue to increase from here on out, today it was 3.5:1.
Good trading everyone, hope you are learning and growing everyday!
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
A little spreadsheet work to update my progress. Still need to do average win/loss, and a couple other stats. Looking forward to incorporating Tradervue to have a deep look at trade statistics in the near future. Looking good, positive sloping equity curve!
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
If luck doesn't at least play a small part in a trader's success then I am screwed lol. Just following my plan, 1/2 way there...
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
So today was quite stressful, literally in the trade for over 5 hours. This was my largest winning day to date, and I had to fight every impulse to take profits along the way. My profit target has been 40 points for a while now, and I know that I must break out of that barrier to get to the next level. In reality 40 is just a number, but now it is a figure that carries a lot of emotional weight. Hopefully today is the beginning of a new chapter.
I took lots of notes today as I wrote down my feelings, and I was able to realize how my emotions were literally taking over. I focused on my plan, and I was able to clear my mind and drive out the distractions. Part of the problem was that I traded two contracts because of my initial risk, and after the first profit target was reached I was fighting the urge not to take the second off where my total would be 40 points, as we hit that level again and again. Today's structure did not help either. Vertical moves followed by long consolidations, which one day I will be able to capitalize on significantly.
Either way trusted my plan, and cashed out within two ticks of the high. I am now more than halfway to combine PT.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overnight we gapped higher then drifted lower to fill that gap. We moved higher from there, and price action called for me to get in long at the consolidation at VWAP. I got in two contracts via my initial risk. One contract set 3 points before ONH, second one 40 point target. Recent research has shown me this amount, regardless of ADR, is hit 80% of the time. So it will continue to be an important profit level for me, although I will build upon it.
As previously noted, we essentially chopped higher to the end of the day. Exited just above the last high made, would have held if it broke and ran. You have to be flexible depending on conditions, but that has nothing to do with following your plan. $300 day.
Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
