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lovetotrade's YM Breakout Journal

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  #221 (permalink)
 lovetotrade 
Rockledge, FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Gain Capital, OANDA
Trading: GBP
 
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Posts: 416 since Oct 2014
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Crap trading today, along with another crappy range.

I was sure VWAP, W VWAP Close, and M VWAP would hold the market after a great run up overnight, that I went in with two contracts. Botched the exits on those badly. Was expecting a V bottom due to the verticalness of the move, it didn't happen so I exited right as price corrected higher. Next time I should be more aware that more than likely I will get a move, but how that move plays out afterward gives me the information I needed going forward. Bullish bias caused another small stop out, and quit trading due to frustration.

I cannot improve if I am not measuring results, and setting goals for myself. This week my goal is to improve my trading around VWAP. I will setup some parameters as to how to measure that goal going forward. Tomorrow is a new day. Vol hitting new lows.




Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #222 (permalink)
 lovetotrade 
Rockledge, FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Gain Capital, OANDA
Trading: GBP
 
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Posts: 416 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 1,058 given, 807 received

Watching the market come into perfect equilibrium sucks. Monthly, Weekly, Daily VWAP all sitting on top of one another, need some sort of new information to come in and move the market. Watching the Euro chart as well now, to potentially add another market into the mix one day down the road.

Ok so today's goal was to trade VWAP successfully, and I would say I did that well. The only thing I could have done was hold for the break higher and flip, but I did not see much opportunity in the day's range to move higher, plus resistance above. So I got out when I really just felt like the market was not going to move lower. A step in the right direction.




Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #223 (permalink)
 lovetotrade 
Rockledge, FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Gain Capital, OANDA
Trading: GBP
 
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Posts: 416 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 1,058 given, 807 received


Alright, I feel like I am starting to get my groove back. Got a nice 18 point winner to start the day despite my trading computer having internet connection issues, so that was good. Price started chopping up the 1SD pretty good which is not my ideal trading scenario, so I bought the breakout of the little triangle to new highs. I should mention that I took profit at the recent swing high instead of holding, due to the tight volatility and trading ranges that have been common this last week. Trying harder to adapt to the market to increase profitability instead of stagnating.

Well the B/O failed, and I exited the move on the exact low tick. But that was ok because I was looking for exhaustion, and when it kept going I got out. Part of the plan. I had to watch my son late morning so figured I'd be done for the day. My daughter is done with school as of today, so there will be no more distractions during the trading day. Also I have been sick for the past couple days, so decided no trading was best, feeling a lot better now.

Looking forward to next week! Oh yea, and guess where the market ultimately went? Daily ADR target of course!





Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #224 (permalink)
 lovetotrade 
Rockledge, FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Gain Capital, OANDA
Trading: GBP
 
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Posts: 416 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 1,058 given, 807 received

Today was a pretty standard continuation day. Only thing that messed me up today was Friday's VWAP being right in the middle of the intraday price action, which was affecting my ability to size up trades correctly for a decent R:R. Happy about my trading today, using a one lot to trade levels, and am working on my plan to effectively add a second in the near future. Missed the second VWAP trade, which took us up to the day's ADR target. Once again my bias did not allow me to enter due to previous price action. Still working on that, as a 2nd VWAP entry is both common, and usually quite profitable.




Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #225 (permalink)
 lovetotrade 
Rockledge, FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Gain Capital, OANDA
Trading: GBP
 
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Posts: 416 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 1,058 given, 807 received

I am lucky I didn't get chopped up today, ending the day at B/E is a blessing for sure. So today is the kind of day that actually brings out my weaknesses. Traded levels quite well again today, and let the market lead. After the fact there was a nice short at weekly VWAP, but wasn't part of my game plan so that is OK.

Lots of levels intersecting today, so again just glad I didn't get run over, but glad to see I am handling it better.

So I have played around with what I call volume trend in the past, but I thought of a new way to look at it the other day, so looking into that to see if I can gain more insight into the pull backs and levels I like to trade. Will document that as I progress.

Feel good about my trading, running back at 100%. Looking to slowly build profits, and will become more aggressive with more contracts as we build a cushion.





Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #226 (permalink)
 lovetotrade 
Rockledge, FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Gain Capital, OANDA
Trading: GBP
 
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Posts: 416 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 1,058 given, 807 received

Again encouraged by this from Steenbarger.
TraderFeed: Trader Performance: What Contributes to Profitability?

Doesn't look like I am going to get to trade any specific levels today as the market is finally moving, and maxed out most of the ADR. Most of it by the 8:30 eco report which I don't trade.

Still fine tuning some things this week, and working on my mind's concept of risk. I really think it is an area that is holding me back. Overall I am really excited about my progress, and am absolutely a better trader than when I started up the combine again. Not much for trading this week, but the little I did was profitable. Next week looking to get more trades on.

Everyone have a great Memorial Day weekend! Headed to Daytona Beach tomorrow with the Fam.

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #227 (permalink)
 lovetotrade 
Rockledge, FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Gain Capital, OANDA
Trading: GBP
 
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Posts: 416 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 1,058 given, 807 received

Well it won't take you long to figure out how frustrating today was for me. Picked direction correctly, market hit ADR target easily, yet again without me. One small stop out in the beginning from an incorrectly placed stop, and I didn't allow myself to get back on the bus, even though I could tell right away I had made the mistake.

I have started reading The Daily Trading Coach again, to look for some actionable ideas to aid in my struggle lately. These aren't big hurdles I need to clear, but I do have a mental road block that is not allowing me to apply risk appropriately. So I am applying two courses of action that should help.

One is since I have been trading only one contract, I am going to trade one very basic setup, and that is a simple VWAP retrace. I will trade this level best as I can, and if I make an obvious error, then I will get back in. Daily stop loss is 20 points give or take. Target is daily 2SD, and if I can get that target then I am allowed to get back in at 1SD. I am also allowing myself a simple trend continuation scalp setup if the market is already trending.

I am also going to start using a standard keltner channel around price to aid in my entry. This will force me to get a better entry, as I must enter above/below the center line, and should also keep risk in check as a close outside of the channel will allow me to immediately exit one tick beyond that bar in case of exhaustion. Hoping that improved trade location will help give my risk tolerance a boost. The keltner adjusts with volatility, so after looking at my past charts with this overlaid, it looks to be a useful adjustment.

Steenbarger says that setting actionable and achievable goals every day is key to building confidence in ones trading. Sounds good to me.




Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #228 (permalink)
 lovetotrade 
Rockledge, FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Gain Capital, OANDA
Trading: GBP
 
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Posts: 416 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 1,058 given, 807 received

So I've been on vacation since June 6th. Brought my laptop, and an extra monitor so I could trade some of the days I was gone. Some more small down/up days with a nice winning day in there close to the end of the trip. I think the time away really helped. A big part of that was opening up "The Daily Trading Coach" again. What a powerful tool that book is. I really need to be reading that once every three months or so, just to freshen up. It really helped me to tweak some things in my trading that have been inconsistent. Part of that is to continue to remain process driven focused vs. on PnL. My stats show me that I am where I need to be profitability wise, to complete the combine and move onto the next phase. It is absolutely my lack of consistency in executing my trading plan, that has led to my essentially flat equity curve.

So particularly after getting back in the saddle today, I feel much more on that even keel, and focus is where it needs to be: In the process.

I have decided to trade only one contract until I hit a certain profit level in the combine. Still figuring out exactly what that level is going to be, thinking the $500 to $750 mark though. This is helping me in a couple of ways. First it allows two complete stop outs, now that I have a comfortable daily loss limit in place. This will help me manage the position more effectively both physically and psychologically, as I have no attachment to the trade outcome. If I lose twice I am done for the day and move on. Through research this scenario also should not happen very often, and when it does, it is a sign of conditions that will chop up my account if I continue to trade anyway. So it prevents me from digging a hole in my PnL. Waiting to trade the 2nd contract just gives me a cushion, and prevents me from potentially moving backward too much, before I move forward.

What this also allows, is to improve my patience during the trade. All new trades are made with quite favorable R:R, and focusing on that allows me to hold out for the distant target. I do have certain conditions that warrant early profit taking, but they are very specific, and also allow re-entry for continuation. I know I am missing out on the scale outs, that help improve my basis and PnL during the trading day, but they were also causing me to be inconsistent in my entries, and the over-leveraged feeling was causing me to trade incorrectly. So I am pretty confident that this decision will make a large impact on my trading going forward. Today I was able to trade with great confidence, with no large swings in my emotions either way. While in trades I just want to observe, and make the right decisions.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now we can move onto my trading today. So many times have I previously called direction, and picked a profit target correctly, either to bail early or not be on the move at all. Time for a change.

We had quite a large move higher overnight, but broke some key levels. Trend direction definitely up, but I knew if we couldn't breach the overnight high and broke VWAP, then we could see a nice counter trend day. Using the market's interaction with the different VWAP levels, along with our anticipated range through the ADR, we can adjust our target based on price action.

We got long above a consolidation that popped above VWAP, looking for that ONH test, and with an obvious failure at weekly +1SD, Weekly VWAP could be in the cards. So with our criteria we exited on a VWAP failure. So we patiently waited for a decent pull back to VWAP to get short with our W VWAP target in mind.

We got lucky on entry since it didn't actually trade through my limit order, but took absolutely no heat on the trade. Pretty bumpy ride lower, and we got what turned out to be an exhaustion bar at the previous swing low. At 24 points MFE there would have been plenty of chances for profit taking. After the market made its intentions clear that we would be going higher I exited the trade after 2 hours at break even.

The market then setup a decent long entry, but with ONH and the previously failed W+1SD right above I was not excited about the R:R, so I skipped the trade. Had a feeling at this point that we were in a range day, and I was correct. Market failed exactly where I thought it might.

So overall I would call this a great day, even though PnL was negative. This is the correct way to look at things, as it could have just as easily been a 40+pt winning day based on structure. I am encouraged and excited by future prospects of trading multiple contracts again, but for now I focus on the process and the opportunity will come.




Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #229 (permalink)
 lovetotrade 
Rockledge, FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Gain Capital, OANDA
Trading: GBP
 
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Posts: 416 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 1,058 given, 807 received


Quoting 
Now he just needs to continue doubling down on process and shun judging his trading on PnL. He needs to be patient and work on his strengths and with his team members. The waiting can be the hardest part for a trader like him. But that next level will come with his approach to let process drive performance.

From my seat, itís the traders following and trusting the right process for them, who are making the most progress.

-Mike Bellafiore of SMB

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #230 (permalink)
 lovetotrade 
Rockledge, FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Gain Capital, OANDA
Trading: GBP
 
lovetotrade's Avatar
 
Posts: 416 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 1,058 given, 807 received


Another small range day today. Half the ADR to be exact. Followed the plan quite well today, had one error which I will explain, but I quickly recognized it, and then fixed it. I am going to construct my journal here the way I have my hand written journal, only as a condensed version hopefully to streamline things.
------------------------------------------

Overnight we gapped higher into monthly VWAP, then moved lower to close the gap. Today ended up as a range inside the overnight session.

Trade number one was a short on PB from a failed breakout above VWAP. I should have entered on a break of the lows, but didn't see that entry at first. Got a pretty gnarly pull back that almost stopped me out, and when we finally broke lower then bounced hard at Y-VWAP I got spooked and jumped out. After a couple minutes I realized there was no reason not to be short, so I re-entered. Usually I would watch this continue to move lower without me, but today I caught my mistake and fixed it. Pretty big deal. Exited this trade when my news alarm went off.

Trade number two was a continuation of the breakout from the news. After the market showed me it was not interested in going down, the 5 minute triangle that broke out to the upside looked like a nice chance to test the overnight highs. Got long above R1 which was sitting right above VWAP, and the market proceeded to move against me. Both adverse moves against my entries today would have made excellent second entries, and would have helped me end the day positive, so noting that. We tested the previous high, but then failed so I bailed just below VWAP.

Not an exciting day, but kept losses in line, and followed my plan.




Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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