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lovetotrade's YM Breakout Journal
Started:November 6th, 2014 (04:13 PM) by lovetotrade Views / Replies:11,143 / 187
Last Reply:November 22nd, 2016 (11:16 AM) Attachments:137

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lovetotrade's YM Breakout Journal

Old November 9th, 2014, 06:44 PM   #11 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Apex Futures/OEC/FXCM
Favorite Futures: YM, Forex
 
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you mentioned ES is against your rules so what is the appeal? Also, why do you like the YM vs NQ, TF or ES? Like the journal I will follow.

I have been learning to read price action on the 1 minute ES chart, while switching over to my YM chart for live trades. I thought I could read PA a little better in the ES, as the S/R lines are a little more clearly defined IMO. I do not have any actual entry or exit rules for trading the ES, but one of the setups I was looking at setup, and I took the trade. It went a point in my direction, and then reversed, so I exited at a point loss. But that is not part of my system, and therefore that trade hurt my trading record, and my P&L. So I must be disciplined in squashing any kind of random trading behavior.

I have commented on my appeal to the YM vs. the others in this thread here. If you have anything to add please do!

http://="https://futures.io/index-futures-trading/33682-ym-mini-sized-dow-future...-futures-contract.html"]

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Old November 9th, 2014, 08:52 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Why do you even open an ES chart at all? It seems to be more of a distraction than be helpful at this point.

I would focus only on the YM if that is what you are trading at least until it either works or doesn't and you are confident you put every effort into it.

I "day trade" the TF for 3 hours every morning. For 2+ years I did open another chart during this timeframe. I put 100% of my effort into learning everything I possibly could about TF. Looking back this has been the best decision I made in my career.

In the afternoons/evenings I review other instruments for possible future trading, but would not let that distract me from my main focus. I made several attempts to make my system work on others and didn't fit. Most likely because I have not put in the same effort and focus as with the TF.

I now swing trade the ES on longer timeframes and follow it a little closer however I am confident that it will not distract me during my TF trading. I also still trade some stocks and ETFs on longer timeframes (weeks) but generally only look at them in the evenings or weekends however not once do I look at them during my TF trading sessions.

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Old November 10th, 2014, 12:27 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Well the idea was to transition to the ES eventually, since all the big hitters here seem to swear by it. But watching the ES chart during the day was never a distraction, as my system only sets up a few trades each day. I should have never had the DOM up for the ES, but I was watching order flow, and trying to learn that as well. But I am convinced after reviewing things this week that I will learn to trade the price action on the YM, while allowing the squeeze to set up.

As I have mentioned, my current breakout system really does not do well during a week like this week, but there would have been plenty of price action to trade on the one minute chart.

But I was looking to be able to watch the ES live, and paper trade entries and exits until I had developed a plan, and was willing to throw some money at it. But now I realize that with watching the YM on the one minute chart, I can get a lot more trades on the YM risking 10 pts, than I could on the ES risking 1 point. Monetary equivalent the same. So that's what I will do.

I had already been watching the YM one minute chart, but mainly for monitoring active trades around S/R points. So now I will be taking it a step further. So you're right, probably should have been focusing there all along. Glad it only cost me $50 to figure it out.

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Old November 11th, 2014, 04:18 PM   #14 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
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Only a couple small trades today as volume was weak, and moves were small again. Used price action to manage the trades. Took some notes, and everything seemed to trend well today on the one minute chart.

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Old November 14th, 2014, 03:19 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
Yesterday's chart:

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Old November 14th, 2014, 03:21 PM   #16 (permalink)
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11/14
I have been on vacation for the last two weeks, and so the last few days trading has been sparse, and typically break even. So I haven't posted much, but I am back with vengeance now

8:40 Nice pullback after morning economic reports. Price action gave me a buy signal with only 6 points of risk. Took it and got stopped out. First bearish indication of the day. We are in an hourly triangle, and it's Friday so I am assuming the market will pick a side, and trend with it to go home over the weekend. Looking to take trades today after the market has established direction. Entries and exits will be based on price action, and will be marked up on my chart. Actual trades marked with arrows, trade ideas in the bubbles.

I have realized over the last week that my whole entire strategy that I held dear to for so long, is all easilly identifiable through price action. I can actually feel and see the 5 minute squeeze set up on the one minute chart. And while I could continue to trade just the 5 minute chart, the problem is that the market sets up so many more opportunities that the 5 minute squeeze misses. And the problem is that below the surface, they act and trade just like the 5 minute squeeze does. So I plan on only taking a trade once the new trend has identified itself, and managing that through price action. In this lower volatility environment, 30 points has shown to be a reasonable price target, and if the market continues to show strength after the target has been hit, then I will re-enter.

The 5 minute squeeze just has not been cutting it as the larger time frames start to consolidate, which has forced me to look under the hood, and really ask why? What I have found is opportunity.

So I will continue to post charts of each method: What I am looking at, thinking, and doing on the one minute chart, and the potential squeeze trades on the 5 minute chart.

Then I can truly determine whether I am just going through another phase, or if I am really onto something here. In the past I have been quick to maybe look for squeeze trades on a smaller chart, or add an indicator or pattern to the mix, trying to improve upon what I had built. But I feel like I am on the right track and do I will let this play out.

9:53 Market broke down out of consolidation, but only a couple of points away from the hourly trendline. Should have waited to see how it reacted with this level first, but after watching it fail to the upside, I was fairly confident it would work out, the vix broke out to the upside as well. -8 points. This also would have been where I entered for the 5 minute squeeze. Volume is not as good as I was expecting this morning, and market has pretty much been chop since 8:30. Must wait for the market to pick a direction. Note: would have made sense to flip long here.

12:22 Failed 5 minute squeeze short w/reversal. This time I was able to avoid the short, and got long on a close back above the pivot point and hourly trendline. Hoping to now head higher through the down trend line. Out at B/E, volume is so low and the 5 minute bar closed back inside the trend line. Would have been stopped out.

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Old November 17th, 2014, 12:02 AM   #17 (permalink)
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I have been trying to prepare for the upcoming week all weekend. It's amazing how much of this I can take without getting burned out. I have to throw out some mad props to @PandaWarrior and everyone who has contributed to his journals. It is really speeding up my learning curve, and clarify many of my own thoughts and misguiding thought processes. Priceless information I tell ya Also seems to be an outstanding human being, and makes it a true joy and privilege to read his work.

My process over the last few weeks has been to dig deeper into the psychology of why my strategy works, and how I can extract more from it through price action. I had originally thought I might need to throw it out, but now I am starting to see how I can combine the two to increase my performance and results. I am starting to understand that all markets behave differently, and am enjoying getting to know mine.

So the idea behind the squeeze is basically a quick indication of whether the market is consolidating, trending, or just oscillating at a quick glance. When it works, it works great, and gives some great signals, but like all indicator based systems it seriously lags sometimes. Like I could catch a great breakout in the morning, hit my profit target, then the market would do a full reversal, and I would have to sit out of all of it if the market didn't consolidate enough to give me a signal. Obviously this is no good, and for me it is unacceptable. But I tell you what, when a large move is building up, nothing gives you a better heads up than the squeeze from what I've seen. So I don't need to throw the baby out with the bathwater, I just need to use it as another tool in the old war chest. And as a guide from time to time. Especially since the nature of the squeeze/breakouts fit so well with my personality, but I am learning to adapt to all situations. When to take a trade, and when to stand aside to observe and let things set up.

So when I do not have a signal from my system, I will be watching out for price action, and other market internals to help guide me throughout my day. Look forward to taking a new step tomorrow.

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Old November 17th, 2014, 09:42 AM   #18 (permalink)
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lovetotrade View Post
I have been trying to prepare for the upcoming week all weekend. It's amazing how much of this I can take without getting burned out. I have to throw out some mad props to @PandaWarrior and everyone who has contributed to his journals. It is really speeding up my learning curve, and clarify many of my own thoughts and misguiding thought processes. Priceless information I tell ya Also seems to be an outstanding human being, and makes it a true joy and privilege to read his work.

My process over the last few weeks has been to dig deeper into the psychology of why my strategy works, and how I can extract more from it through price action. I had originally thought I might need to throw it out, but now I am starting to see how I can combine the two to increase my performance and results. I am starting to understand that all markets behave differently, and am enjoying getting to know mine.

So the idea behind the squeeze is basically a quick indication of whether the market is consolidating, trending, or just oscillating at a quick glance. When it works, it works great, and gives some great signals, but like all indicator based systems it seriously lags sometimes. Like I could catch a great breakout in the morning, hit my profit target, then the market would do a full reversal, and I would have to sit out of all of it if the market didn't consolidate enough to give me a signal. Obviously this is no good, and for me it is unacceptable. But I tell you what, when a large move is building up, nothing gives you a better heads up than the squeeze from what I've seen. So I don't need to throw the baby out with the bathwater, I just need to use it as another tool in the old war chest. And as a guide from time to time. Especially since the nature of the squeeze/breakouts fit so well with my personality, but I am learning to adapt to all situations. When to take a trade, and when to stand aside to observe and let things set up.

So when I do not have a signal from my system, I will be watching out for price action, and other market internals to help guide me throughout my day. Look forward to taking a new step tomorrow.

Thank you for the kind words, BUT don't put to much stock in my threads, its mostly me wondering out loud what the heck I'm doing.....so take it for what its worth....and much of the time its not much....

Good luck on your journey.....it can be bumpy....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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Old November 17th, 2014, 11:37 AM   #19 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
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PandaWarrior View Post
Thank you for the kind words, BUT don't put to much stock in my threads, its mostly me wondering out loud what the heck I'm doing.....so take it for what its worth....and much of the time its not much....

Good luck on your journey.....it can be bumpy....

Searching through one man's mumblings on a similar road traveled before you, can lead you to a many breadcrumbs of wisdom. I am on page 110 of the first chronicles, and am looking forward to the last half. Quite a journey, and really easy to read. Just wanted to give you a shout out because it has made an impact on my thought process. Because I am at a similar point in your journal thus far, it is accelerating my learning curve of some things to look out for, things I should be placing more importance on, and things to avoid.

It's a little strange as I started from the beginning, I have no idea where you are at now, but I have to assume much further along, as you were making great strides in your journal up to this point. So I hope all the best, and may hit you up again when I'm done

Cheers!

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Old November 17th, 2014, 04:45 PM   #20 (permalink)
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11/17

9:40 Hourly down trendline is still holding. Price was immediately rejected off of that level. Honestly didn't see that line until the market started moving higher, it wasn't in my screen till then. I figured we might get to HOD though since there was obvious rejection from the downside. I moved my stop to -5 after 10pts were hit. Still determining if this is good practice or not. Reducing my stop by half allows double the trades to be taken. But like this trade I was stopped out, and now the trade is working out. I know the market doesn't care where my stop is, but after a large selling tail and reversal down it appeared as if the trade had failed. But sure enough it came down through the pivot level, tested the last support area(and the 5 ema), and then bounced higher. My trade setup has always worked for the 5 minute squeeze, and that's what this was, so maybe I just need to stick to that plan during the setup. Note: Trade never made it to target, and is reversing through that stop level anyway. And reversed again and hit my target. This is not normal behavior so I don't think I should stress too much on this one. But my line of thinking was correct, and the target was good, so there is something to take away from the loss. Getting a good entry on the one minute chart was fine, but I should have managed it from the 5 minute chart. This was also a 15 minute squeeze that fired off as well.

When things like this happen it zaps my confidence. I want to improve, but I don't want to be taking steps back either.

10:43 Ok so I thought I had a good chance at re-entry. Price action failed to make a significant new low, then we stalled and closed back above the pivot level with a bullish bar so I got in long. Never closed below the 5 minute 10 ema on the 5 minute chart(which I use for confirmation) so I thought I was in the clear. Nope, stop taken out, and reversed on me again. My timing is just sucking wind today, as my premise seems to be correct.

Will take the rest of the day for observation. May take a regular squeeze signal if one pops up.

So the truth is that nothing about this day makes sense to me, and it's frustrating. I was thinking earlier that the day seemed to want to go higher, and that the end of the day that S1 would probably have looked like the obvious area to buy. But that doesn't do much for me. It took me way too long to realize that instead of having a nice trend day, that the opening range had been set, and I knew volume sucked, but I guess I was hopeful. Hope doesn't cut it, volume does lol.

The thing that is killing me the most I think, is that I was just starting to get into a nice groove of profitability as the holiday season was approaching. From what I understand this is normal market behavior, and I am trying to force something that isn't there. I need to be patient, observe, and keep my finger off the trigger, or else I am going to whittle down my account.

But I guess these are all decent observations. At 10:30 we were back below the ONH, and volume was crap. That rally had sold off pretty hard, and while it didn't break too much support, chances were that even a re-test of the highs were pretty slim, much less than besting that level. When we failed to break the ONH for the second time, I should have known sellers would step in more aggressively there to test market strength. Then once the market created a nice supporting trendline, failed to break down, and gave me a nice reversal right above the S1 pivot to take a shot at a long. This area was also at the VPOC, and market obviously did not want to go lower here.

Was going to buy the market once it broke the pivot point and pulled back as it didn't seem sellers were coming in aggressively there. Then I pulled the buy order as I thought the lack of volume would prevent the market from making new highs on the day. So then I was going to switch short, but thought the long bias would chop me up. Well market broke lower into the LVN on the volume profile that I had minimized, and then reversed back higher, which means that price was rejected, and market would be searching for value higher. Well it then broke to new highs. Price then reversed and fell all the way back down to support at the pivot.

Gonna start keeping the smallest trending chart up to guide me through the day. Today it was the 30 minute, and that would have helped guide me through the reversals and chop.

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