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lovetotrade's YM Breakout Journal
Started:November 6th, 2014 (04:13 PM) by lovetotrade Views / Replies:11,203 / 187
Last Reply:November 22nd, 2016 (11:16 AM) Attachments:137

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lovetotrade's YM Breakout Journal

Old November 25th, 2015, 12:03 PM   #181 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Apex Futures/OEC/FXCM
Favorite Futures: YM, Forex
 
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trendwaves View Post
I wonder why the FTP is so hard to get through ? Is it just the new set of rules ? As @lovetotrade pointed out, the design of his strategy was influenced to fit into the original combine constraints. So a change of constraints (objectives) may disturb some traders in the FTP ?

It seemed to me in studying it, as a complete outsider to the TST experience, the FTP is designed to get the new trader calmed down and focused on controlling risk. It's like a 'mini-combine' focused on risk control.

Some folks here that got through the FTP then ran aground on the other side with a live funded account. I think I can understand that due to the potential for a higher emotional aspect influencing results. I think the TST 'Scaling Plan' is designed to help alleviate and smooth out the transition.

My suggestion here is first don't over think this. Just make sure your trading plan fits well (will still work) with the new constraints. Like a sanity check, will this still work given the new objectives ? This of course requires you make sure you have a complete understanding of the constraints and objectives for this phase (Bob's point). If so, then simply move forward and trust your plan.

Thanks, that is the plan. My biggest struggle right now is deciding whether or not to trade two contracts during the first ten days of the funded account(I know I'm getting a little ahead of myself here). I will only have one shot at this, so I am trying to balance getting enough profit built up vs. the chance market conditions are not good for my strategy and I just tread water, albeit more deeply with two contracts vs. one.

Fortunately I have some time to think this through.

@bobwest thanks for the insights, your remarks are always warmly welcomed here.

Wishing everyone a blessed and wonderful Thanksgiving!

The bottom line is this Ė if you donít maintain a level of consistency in what you do, you will never be able to make the progress and achieve the results you desire. This is why so many successful traders talk about the importance of consistency in approach as that has often made all the difference between their success and failure.
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Old December 2nd, 2015, 11:03 AM   #182 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Apex Futures/OEC/FXCM
Favorite Futures: YM, Forex
 
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Posts: 283 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 734 given, 420 received

Some of my new work

Just a little something I have been working on. I find that most strong trends happen once the current price action starts trending away from the VWAP, on the same side as yesterday's VWAP close. I know this seems super obvious, but for some reason it didn't really click until I put this framework around it.

I have also developed a volume indicator, that works similar to the directional index, but uses directional volume to give you a visual heads up of whether bears/bulls are in control. And even though moving averages are lagging indicators, it can still give you a nice heads up that strength is shifting from one side to the other. All this is, is a combination of up/down volume on the same chart region, and then 15 period EMA's applied to each. The idea is that whichever side is trending tends to be in control.

Here you can see that price chops around as price churns in balance, in between current and y-day VWAP. You can also see in the corresponding volume rectangle below that the bears aren't making a very strong effort as up/down volume seems to negate each other. Shortly after, nice bull volume comes in and we get a strong reversal back through VWAP in the direction of the trend, this is your confirmation to get long where you deem appropriate.

Now you have several confirming cues to get long with conviction:

1. Volume is showing solid buying pressure
2. Broken VWAP with no consolidation indicating strength
3. Wind at your back as price comes back in line with the main trend.

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I have been researching when I should be looking for trend days, and I feel like I'm getting warmer. I feel like I am drawn to a certain level of discretionary trading, and I want to have a plan for when opportunity meets preparation on days like this. Keeping it simple and focusing on context and price action.

The bottom line is this Ė if you donít maintain a level of consistency in what you do, you will never be able to make the progress and achieve the results you desire. This is why so many successful traders talk about the importance of consistency in approach as that has often made all the difference between their success and failure.
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Old October 18th, 2016, 01:29 PM   #183 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
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Has it been that long?


Wow can't believe it's been almost a year since my last entry here. I feel like my last post is still pretty in line with the trading I was seeking, but I sidetracked from that and created a mechanical system that seemed very promising. This journey led me to the British Pound and away from the Euro. Still can't believe I ever traded the Euro now that I have traded the Pound most of the year. It's like the equivalent of riding on a cheetah vs. a tortoise.

So over the last few weeks I have broken away from the mechanical stuff and leaned into discretionary, which is the way I have always desired to trade, but could never quite get the hang of and make it profitable. The mechanical system was essentially a B/O system designed to catch moves outside of the VWAP 1 standard deviation bands, as the theory was that no large move can ever happen without price making it outside of those bands, and kept me out of the chop that generally happened inside of them. Through the course of several months I traded and tweaked the system to be profitable, had a nice sloping equity curve, and through proper profit target and stop placement, minimal draw down. But something still didn't feel quite right even though I thoroughly enjoyed the process, and was much more in sync with that, than any other system I have created.

Which led me to the discretionary type trading I am doing now. Spending all that time watching price action on the Pound allowed me to take notes alongside my system, learning the ins and outs of how this particular market trades. And pretty soon I was able to start seeing the better moves before they started to happen as context, price action, and volume came in line. In essence, once I felt I had the contextual direction nailed, I could sense when and where money would come into the market to try and make another leg higher or lower. And that is when I had to leave the mechanical stuff behind.

The final aha moment for me was when I watched a few of @FuturesTrader71 webinars over again, and I saw him going over the theoretical average price(I believe it was called) as he scaled out quickly as price moved in his direction during a trade. Previously I was struggling with where I would place profit targets or exit a trade because I had so many good ideas floating around, that made a lot of good sense, were flexible depending on price action, and allowed me to capture the bulk of the move on large days. But on choppy days, shooting for the moon can eat you alive, and even full stop outs on a couple of trades can really eat into or even negate one large winner.

So after I watched the webinar again(I believe that one was about trading the hard right edge) and watching him explain the theory, I went to work punching in my own numbers and what did I find? That having a couple highly achievable targets would more than likely be the one thing that would allow me to succeed over the long haul. As he has mentioned before he likes to take more information risk over opportunity/price risk, and I can easily see why now.

More than likely a trade will move in my direction. How far? No one can know that. But I do know that if I take the first third of my position off at 5 points, and my stop is at 10 points, then even if the last 2 contracts get stopped out then my risk on the trade is still reduced by 50%. 50%!!!! And if I take the second third off at 10 points(which is also highly achievable) then I automatically have a winning trade/risk free trade even if my last third gets stopped out. Now I can let that baby run run run, and even add another third if the market is trending well and calls for it. This makes all the difference. And understanding that by putting more ticks back in my pocket through lower losses, allows me to not have to fight to get every tick on the upside. That makes my life so much easier, and I am ok with that.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So now to the actual trading. A while back I created (what I guess you could call an indicator) something I call volume trend. It's actually a set of moving averages that follows the up/down volume individually, and basically gives you a visual aid in strength and direction of the volume trend alongside the price trend. At first I thought it might be the next holy grail! I mean this thing trends, has divergences, and crossovers to boot! And when I realized after trying to test it, it was inconsistent as anything else, I put it in the dustbin of Chris' failed trading experiments. But little did I know I was actually onto something pretty neat.

So I use a 120 minute chart for my largest context(essentially obvious support/resistance)
A 30 minute chart to determine daily and trend support/resistance
A 5 minute chart to determine intraday S/R
A 1 minute chart that I trade from and watch price action patterns develop
and a 30 second chart that I use the volume trend to help determine entries

VWAP is a huge part of identifying context for me now, along with the previous day VWAP close, and whether we are moving towards or away from it. Price action very consistently interacts with the daily VWAP and its standard deviation bands, and this provides many clues about what the market might do next.

I also watch volume profile very closely to see how well/not well the market is auctioning higher or lower. This also helps me determining whether we are getting closer to entering the market or not.

With all this information now at my grasp, I have no fears of missing out, or impulse trades anymore. Don't get me wrong I still have my fair share of errors to work through, but I am now starting to understand why the process of learning how to trade correctly takes so damn long. It's because it's a lot! There are so many moving parts, and psychological factors working against you, that there is absolutely no substitute for time. I realize that now, and it keeps me grounded when I get frustrated.

So onto today's trades:
The first chart is the 120 minute chart, I have highlighted what looked to be the next good target since we started to trend well overnight and after yesterday's reversal. This ended up getting hit after I was done for the day, but could have easily happened on the third trade.
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Next we have the 30 minute chart where you can see we have started to move significantly higher, and I marked trend support with a black arrow. So we are well above yesterday's VWAP close(black line) and the 30 minute trend is up, so if price is finding support at VWAP today then I will be looking for longs.
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Next we have the various entries I took on the one minute chart, and how price action played out. There was an important eco report out at 8:30 so that trade got bailed on early, but both initial targets were hit.
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And lastly is actual execution on the FXCM platform.
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Now let me be clear, I am still trading quite small as I learn to trust my gut and my rules. But at least it feels like we are as one. Main problems I have had are small execution errors, which are well documented in my journal, and reviewed on a weekly basis. IF you do not treat this as a professional, you will never become one. Will slowly add size as I continue to trade well.

I probably still won't be around too often but I do get emails about replies and what not. Hope all you guys are doing well. I now have an 8 month old boy that is amazing, and a part of my drive to succeed. Love you guys, still don't think I would be where I am today without the Big Mike community.

Ciao

The bottom line is this Ė if you donít maintain a level of consistency in what you do, you will never be able to make the progress and achieve the results you desire. This is why so many successful traders talk about the importance of consistency in approach as that has often made all the difference between their success and failure.
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Old November 2nd, 2016, 12:39 PM   #184 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Apex Futures/OEC/FXCM
Favorite Futures: YM, Forex
 
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Posts: 283 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 734 given, 420 received

Updated Trade Plan

Trade Plan

Start from Daily chart to make sure you are not near any major S/R, if you are mark it on chart

Then 480 minute chart for trend, also for S/R, but larger targets of profit taking as well

Next 120 minute chart for the same when 480 is strong

Then 30 minute trend structure, pivot levels, Y-VWAP, Weekly VWAP bands. Is the intermediate term trending or choppy, who is in control? Areas of confluence.

OTF will take trend above/below R1/S1, and outside of weekly +/- SD1 bands. This is important. Retail will typically keep the daily range in between R1/S1, if it breaks out of this we are looking for large targets to be hit, S2/480 structure etc.

5 minute S/R mark up in real time

Next we generate our trading thesis('s) for the morning, areas of interest where we want to trade, and how we think the day is going to play out.

Set 30 minute alarm to focus on context and update thesis.

Scale in and out as thesis plays out.

Adapt and conquer!

Notes:
Broken 1 min trend structure will likely reverse to 5 minute structure unless trend is strong. Keep this in mind. Also be mindful of what happens when VWAP/bands are in the mix of this PB.

After large S/R is tested what happens next is very critical, but trend is not reversed unless we break days VWAP with conviction. As long as the 30 minute trend is not broken we should still be looking for trend continuation. A temporary break of 30 minute trend signals caution to get too aggressive.

Can only reverse from opposite 1SD when in line with larger trend, otherwise always long above VWAP, short below it.

Choppy market, emphasis on 30 min structure targets. Trending, target structure further out.

The bottom line is this Ė if you donít maintain a level of consistency in what you do, you will never be able to make the progress and achieve the results you desire. This is why so many successful traders talk about the importance of consistency in approach as that has often made all the difference between their success and failure.
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Old November 3rd, 2016, 01:51 AM   #185 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
I was hoping I will find another YM trader here.
Have you switched completely to currencies now?

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Old November 3rd, 2016, 02:09 AM   #186 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Apex Futures/OEC/FXCM
Favorite Futures: YM, Forex
 
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Posts: 283 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 734 given, 420 received

Yes, sorry I have not traded the YM for some time now, and have no intentions to do so in the near future.


Sent from my iPad using futures.io futures trading

The bottom line is this Ė if you donít maintain a level of consistency in what you do, you will never be able to make the progress and achieve the results you desire. This is why so many successful traders talk about the importance of consistency in approach as that has often made all the difference between their success and failure.
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Old November 18th, 2016, 12:22 PM   #187 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
 
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Platform: Sierra Chart
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Favorite Futures: YM, Forex
 
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Posts: 283 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 734 given, 420 received

Alright, so this morning I had one of my best trades ever. Still left a bit to be desired, but that serves as a desire for me to constantly improve, so I am ok with that.

I did not use a hard stop, and am getting more comfortable with that. I do keep a trailing stop for my additional add ons, and there is a reason for that, but for my initial position/contract which is also my runner I am focusing on closing manually. When I no longer want to be long/short I will just get out.

So the range has been decent, but nothing crazy on the pound. ADR @80. So this mornings large move, with essentially no scheduled news came as a bit of a surprise. Either way, I had my plan and executed it pretty well I think.

So the daily trend has been down for a little while now, and after a nice pull back in the daily trend, momentum has started to shift to the downside. Probably has something to do with the dollar's move higher since the election, just a guess lol.

Next, monthly VWAP has just shifted seemingly from support to resistance, and the monthly VWAP close of the previous month seem to be offering decent support.
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This is a little better view, and where I start to get an idea of where it might go. The arrow to the right, points out the LVN which also just happened to be right above S1. So this looked like a good final target, since it was around other previous support as well. The other target that I did not think of till after was the monthly VWAP -1SD, the market actually reached this point on the sell off, so this is now on my radar for future potential targets.
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Next is my 30 minute chart with a weekly VWAP focus. Here I could see that we had broken down to the -2SD before the current pullback to the -1SD. The 30 minute trend looks to be up, but we just re-tested previous support not so successfully, weekly VWAP is sloping down, and Yday VWAP close is above us as well. All pretty bearish. The weekly -1SD was actually sitting right on top of the daily VWAP, so I thought it prudent for my thesis to be essentially long above/short below VWAP depending on price action.
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This is my 30 minute with pivots, mainly just to check on OTF action and potential target levels. I mentioned S1 looked good earlier.
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I marked my entries and exits with arrows just as a point of reference with my FXCM execution chart. Took some notes at 7:30: Short from VWAP, only got to 2/3rd position after a fairly quick breakdown with weak retrace. Just broke ON Low and M VWAP close. S1 could be in sight. Selling pressure seems good, though volume is pretty light. Market finding -2SD as resistance showing strong trend, market can't get back to -1SD but market stabilized VWAP well this morning.
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Will have to look and see if FXCM allows a change in entry/exit order, as of now I can't keep the runner on, just have to keep an eye on my overall average, and continue to scale.
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End of morning recap: Pulled the plug on the trade right before S1 target at LVN. Not sure whi I got spooked, another 30 seconds would have resulted in 20 more points. I managed to capture 89 points out of the 110 offered, feeling pretty good about that. Although the key to aggressive account growth is making the most out of days like today, must keep this as a forethought when the trend is pretty. The fact that the majority of the trend was outside of the -2SD should have been a good heads up to push the trade.

The bottom line is this Ė if you donít maintain a level of consistency in what you do, you will never be able to make the progress and achieve the results you desire. This is why so many successful traders talk about the importance of consistency in approach as that has often made all the difference between their success and failure.
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Old November 22nd, 2016, 11:16 AM   #188 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Apex Futures/OEC/FXCM
Favorite Futures: YM, Forex
 
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Posts: 283 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 734 given, 420 received

So part of the struggle so far in sizing my trades correctly, is that I haven't had a losing day since I started trading my morning thesis through scaling, instead of trading setups within that thesis. What a great problem to have! LOL. But seriously, until I get an idea of what an average day's loss looks like I don't know how to optimize my size. FXCM allows such a drastic range, I can go from literally 10 cents a point to $10,000. Even the typical 1-2% stop loss rule no longer applies because my trading is so fluid with scaling in and out, that I have yet to take a full stop(this will happen I am sure). I will start playing with that next week.

This morning was a bit tricky, I really thought it might be a losing day after the first trade didn't go so well, and I started losing my way a little bit. I think I kept just enough of the larger picture in my forethought that I was able to trade through it, and turn it into a profitable day. Which felt really good as the last half of the morning went spot on. I also let those first losses go out of my mind, and focused on trading what was in front of me. Pretty sure that made all of the difference.

So I started off the day seeing that we seemed to be digesting yesterday's large reversal. Was on board the 100 point 1 minute bar yesterday, although didn't catch as much as I would have liked. But it looked to be a trend reversal on the larger time frames. Today we had come back to support and bounced, although initially broken.
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Next couple charts show lots of support. Monthly VWAP close, Monthly VWAP, Weekly VWAP, etc.
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You can see where it got a little tricky, but I knew once we broke the triangle I no longer wanted to be long, and if we broke support then I wanted to get short.
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Still profitable and took a few things away from today, what more could you ask for?

Have a happy Thanksgiving everyone!

The bottom line is this Ė if you donít maintain a level of consistency in what you do, you will never be able to make the progress and achieve the results you desire. This is why so many successful traders talk about the importance of consistency in approach as that has often made all the difference between their success and failure.
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