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lovetotrade's YM Breakout Journal
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lovetotrade's YM Breakout Journal

  #131 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Apex Futures/OEC/FXCM
Favorite Futures: YM, Forex
 
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Posts: 324 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 815 given, 486 received

So gotta make this update brief today, the baby is up from her nap! Looks like we are starting to get some directional bias on the longer Euro charts, which make it so much easier for me to trade.

Today we had some consolidation through the Europe session which means decent market movement for the U.S. session(finally!). After a short term weak uptrend, we rolled nicely back into the hourly downtrend. I got out early on the first trade as I didn't like how long it was taking, expecting it to break lower quickly. Well that was a mistake and got a much worse entry on the next move lower. It is now part of my plan that only a non-directional squeeze should work out immediately, and the directional trade gets much more time to work out.

Used the accelerated trend lines and S/R to move in and out of the markets although there was no reason to ever exit fully. Something psychological going on there. Either way I was much more agile today and pretty happy with performance.

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  #132 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Apex Futures/OEC/FXCM
Favorite Futures: YM, Forex
 
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Posts: 324 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 815 given, 486 received

Pretty good day today, I feel like my intuition is starting to increase. Very calm and collected today.

I was almost tempted to chase the breakout this morning but caught myself. No exit plan I realized and I wasn't interested anymore. I saw that it was pretty obvious rejection off of the previous hourly swing, and once it started to roll over I got in. I thought about taking profits early, but then I thought to myself, "if this is what I think it is, things are just getting started". And so I sat tight.

I never did get another decent area to add to my initial position, so I took the single I had off at the 1st VWAP SD band. Although it's obvious that a break of the trend line would have been better in hindsight, I am happy with the trade.

Put another trade on when I thought it might roll back over. Traded in and out for a small loss until I gave up on the trade. Didn't feel right anymore. Getting into a groove, and being more selective of my trades.

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  #133 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Apex Futures/OEC/FXCM
Favorite Futures: YM, Forex
 
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Posts: 324 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 815 given, 486 received


Just wanted to give a shout out to @AdamHGrimes for his amazing contributions to the trading community. I am currently undergoing his course right now, and it is phenomenal. I recommend it to any and all traders. It is a great refresher, offers new ideas and perspectives, statistical and quantitative research, and best part of all it is enjoyable! The fact that you are giving it away truly blows my mind, and speaks to the kind of person you are. Thanks so much.

And to all interested in the course, here is the link.

The Course - The Art and Science of Trading

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  #134 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 324 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 815 given, 486 received

Ah I love trends. So unfortunately my first trade got cut short by a few things, but it was the best breakout trade entries I ever managed! I was thinking clearly, didn't hesitate, and got in at great locations with minimal heat.

Got out of the first at the initial risk, and then really didn't like the twin bounces off of the previous hourly support and so I closed the trade. We had to leave for a doctors appointment at 9:30, so I thought it was a good place to cut ties. Well of course that was the exact top of that pullback. Oh yeah I also didn't like that it was struggling to accept value at lower levels, but I realize it was just chewing its way through the support area. So of course the market ran a bit while I was gone. In the first chart you can see where I used the stall outs at the VP shelfs to enter.

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Opened up the next trade as the market was moving higher out of value. Didn't get scaled into my second position, so I decided to wait for at least one good thrust before pulling out(wow that sounds bad lol). Waiting for a trendline break would have yielded a few more points, and I should be waiting for a break of momentum at a minimum before getting out of any position.

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  #135 (permalink)
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lovetotrade View Post
Just wanted to give a shout out to @AdamHGrimes for his amazing contributions to the trading community. I am currently undergoing his course right now, and it is phenomenal. I recommend it to any and all traders. It is a great refresher, offers new ideas and perspectives, statistical and quantitative research, and best part of all it is enjoyable! The fact that you are giving it away truly blows my mind, and speaks to the kind of person you are. Thanks so much.

And to all interested in the course, here is the link.

The Course - The Art and Science of Trading

You can share reviews in the vendor thread:

https://futures.io/vendors-product-reviews/32754-adam-h-grimes-course.html

Mike

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  #136 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post

Thanks BM will do.

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  #137 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
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Posts: 324 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 815 given, 486 received

Hi all, been busy going over months of data gathering stats, and trying to do proper back testing for the trend/breakout method I will be using for the TST Combine. Overall things are looking great, and it looks like I will be giving the 50k continuous combine a shot.

I actually developed the idea from the Adam Grimes' course, and have been crunching numbers intensely for system optimization(while carefully avoiding over-fitting). My goal has been to combine processes that I am already experienced and comfortable with, and test the system as close as I possibly can to how I would trade the system live. My longer term goals are to add a couple more markets, and to develop another system that focuses on different market action to make my overall approach more robust.

I plan to start the combine on Monday, and will post my stats daily if there are any trades. The system usually only gives one signal a day, so I will have to focus pretty good, trying to develop an alert so I don't have to stare at the chart all day but I will do what I have to!

Take care,
Chris

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  #138 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Apex Futures/OEC/FXCM
Favorite Futures: YM, Forex
 
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Posts: 324 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 815 given, 486 received

For some reason it is not letting me screenshot the combine page, but this was the trade I took. The system had a 4 day winning streak before I started, so the possibility of a couple of losers to start the combine was very possible. The system has around a 73% win ratio, so it should be ready to crank out some wins after the first couple of losses.

This was for 7/3. I will be trying to post a day behind so that I can get the combine page up as well as the trade.

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  #139 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
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Broker/Data: Apex Futures/OEC/FXCM
Favorite Futures: YM, Forex
 
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Posts: 324 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 815 given, 486 received

Hope to post a solid update of how things are going over the weekend. Still don't know how to post the TST screenshots so I will look some more into that. Unfortunately with the low volatility I have not gotten any solid moves and am in drawdown with my system. I may have to reset it next week if I can't get a string of winners to dig me out of the hole. This performance is fairly common when the market is not moving much, which is why I chose to do the continuous vs. the 10 day combine. Trying to tilt all odds of success in my favor. Still very hopeful.

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  #140 (permalink)
Student of the Markets
Cocoa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: Apex Futures/OEC/FXCM
Favorite Futures: YM, Forex
 
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Posts: 324 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 815 given, 486 received


​SO TWICE NOW A LOSS FIRST THING IN THE MORNING HAS DISTRACTED ME ENOUGH FROM CATCHING THE SECOND MOVE OF THE DAY WHICH HIT ALL PROFIT TARGETS. SO INSTEAD OF BEING BACK AT BREAKEVEN I AM DOWN $1500. SO I MAY END UP HAVING TO RESET THE ACCOUNT, BUT I AM GOING TO DO MY BEST TO GRIND MYSELF BACK OUT OF THE HOLE. CONDITIONS IN THE OVERALL MARKET ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE AND VOLATILITY IS PICKING BACK UP, SO ODDS SHOULD BE TILTING BACK IN MY FAVOR. IT IS SUCH A SHAME AS ONCE I AM IN THE TRADE I HAVE BEEN EXECUTING MY PLAN SO WELL. BUT YOU CAN'T MAKE MONEY IF YOU ARE NOT IN THE MARKET. MY NUMBER ONE GOAL IS TO HAVE MY IDEAL RECORD MATCH MY ACTUAL P&L. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD BE A PROBLEM. TIME TO TAKE A DEEP BREATH AND REFOCUS.

This is my post this afternoon to my journal at TST. My system has given me exactly what I have needed to be successful in this combine. The breakdown has been within myself. Part of the reason for this has been that I did all the research prior to starting the combine without any actual live trading. And that really hasn't been a big deal. I have researched every possibly situation I could think of. I understand the potential drawdown. I understand the expectancy. I understand the weaknesses and the strengths. And I understand myself well enough to know that if armed with all the right information, I could trade the system with a high degree of confidence with few hiccups.

And for the most part this has all been well and true. But my performance needs to be perfect and it has not. I only get maybe one, and at the most two signals a day. And if I miss the first signal, or as in today lose the first trade but miss the second winning trade, it is detrimental to the performance of the system.

I have my trading and execution plan printed out, and checklists are in place. And if I follow each step exactly as I have written out I will be successful. I am going to re-read these lists twenty times tonight and drill them into my head.

Today after being stopped out to the tick after I had trailed my stop, and then the market continued to my target it threw me off my game. So I went on to other things instead of staying focused for another shot at re-entry which I would have got. In fact I may need to add to my list that if I get a losing trade that I need to shake it off and refocus until my quit time is hit.

Positive from the day, I figured out how to do an equity curve in excel.

But in all seriousness I am still in great spirits and super excited to be doing this. So thankful and so blessed.

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