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JB SPI daytrading and FX fuller method


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JB SPI daytrading and FX fuller method

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  #1 (permalink)
JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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Goals for tomorrow.

Be prepared well. Be at the desk for New York close and generate ideas.

Set the four SPI levels. Trade the signals only. Give the "going in blind" a rest. Take the signals.

Persevere and do your best to take a chunk out of the morning session.

Watch the Brett Steenbarger video (1 hr+).

See about the neck problem.

Visit the fruit shop girl.

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  #3 (permalink)
JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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I didn't kick any goals today because I didn't get a trade on. It seems going in blind makes initiating trades a lot easier. The idea was to take the signals. That didn't happen. Two or three good set-ups played out while I waited for a great set-up. Still had the mind set to wait for things retrace to my targets. Wrong.

The go with momentum trades are the best there is. Will I change how I'm doing things? Yes and no. Go into tomorrow with the same game plan but tweak the mind-set slightly. I'm on the right track.

I got most of the other stuff sorted. Got to get to a chiro or ostiopath. The Margs guys didn't answer calls today.

Saw the fruit shop girl. Coffee 10am Sunday

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  #4 (permalink)
JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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Goals for tomorrow.

Be prepared well. Be at the desk well before New York close and generate ideas.

Set the four SPI levels. Trade the signals only. Give the "going in blind" a rest. Take the signals.

Persevere and do your best to take a chunk out of the morning session.

See about the neck problem.

Go swimming.

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  #5 (permalink)
JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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Two trades for a small profit of 7.5pts. This doesn't sound like much but it's only day two and things are looking good. Got to the desk late due to a radical night sleep. Vivid dreams of war and a mass of people running, guns firing and heaps of cool shit. I never felt threatened. All OK really but the problem was waking myself up.

I missed the major move to the R42 resistance and the radical move back to the lower one. The support buy early was ''trade of the day'' but as I'm not entering trades blind that was off limits. Must review that rule (possibly put smaller size on, na)

Both trades were only scalps and could of collected more points but overall they were managed well. I was overly bullish on the market even though there was three confluent levels of resistance (which eventually got me out).

Trade 1. With trend, Buy support off the averages late stage into the 42 resistance. Sold 1/2 quickly and held the other through the target. Selling at target was a better idea. I sold on the retrace.

Trade 2. With trend (weak at that point), Buy 61.8 retrace of the 15 min candle. Prices were indicating that it would be a real struggle to get to the target zone. Sold early. Good move as it spiraled down.

In summary even though there was plenty more that could of been done a profit is a profit. The fact is that winning trades that net between 5 and 20 points per day can make a great living.

Both trades were planned set-ups and with the trend. Well done and keep up the good work.

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  #6 (permalink)
JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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Prices opened at the middle ground and dead on the last 42 range completion. I had no set-ups until prices made a floor and moved back above the R42 where I went long a very small position with the trend. In hindsight allowing the breakout to come back to support would of given me a far better Risk-Reward and I could of got a bigger position on. Even if this position gets to my target it will only pay equal to 3.24pt of my normal size. The trade is still on and I won't be watching it from here because it should take all day to get to target (if at all). It's not worth bringing the stop up above the trigger line. Stop is left at 5.6pts below entry.

This trade is a Dilernia method trade although I haven't managed it that way. Frank would of had half his position off by now.

The positive is that this is another position entered with the trend and using a valid documented setup.

Possibly no payday today.

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  #7 (permalink)
JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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My one trade today has been at times hilarious. At worst amusing. It was the type of position that if you were emotionally connected to, it would either force you to exit early for a loss or worse still it would mentally and physically tax you so goddamn hard that you would question your whole method.

I let it survive because it was a very small position and I have found proving my position is right is OK.

20 percent of the normal size. Sure, I wish that a full size position was at work but in reality the large exposure may of messed the exit up. Am I ready? We are always questioning our thought process. I've done all those mess ups plus a whole lot more in times gone bye. I've closed out positions to see them go to target. I've doubled up and got stopped out, I've sat through days of live price action and not put a position on.

Right now at this moment the feeling is good. When a position goes through the wars for you and goes to within 1 tick of target, not once but twice then gaps back to entry and then validates the whole process by hitting your target after market , shit, you've got good reason to feel your method is validated.

Lets not get carried away. Today the position only made enough money to purchase a couple of Surf and Turfs.

Work on position size. The positives and the negatives.

Think of the most simple algorithms. This is what is moving the market.

Todays trade,

Primary trade set-up, 1 -Thrust above last range completion to new completion. A plus. Well done.

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  #8 (permalink)
JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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Print out the simple trade record sheet each week.

Print out the weekly, daily and 4 hour report each morning after New York close.

Day trade the morning session a nine day fortnight.

After fifty trades review the trade position size.

Trade the two primary and five secondary entries/structures as per the front page of my SPI book.

Follow the four Currencies, Oil and Gold.

Document the weekly, daily and as many of the four hour candles as possible. I know that 10pm candle can be a drag but at the end of the week....you know the rest.

When a strong directional opinion is realized (a light goes off) on any of my six find a way to enter using the Fuller method or one of my five secondary SPI set-ups.

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  #9 (permalink)
JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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No trades.

Today my effort gets a 0 out of 100. Three of my set-ups played out with no entry here. Why? I've been committed to not put lines in the sand and simply enter by fading the prices. The reason is that in the past that has got me in trouble. Two of the set-ups needed to be entered this way and played out fine. The third one (which is a simple candlestick pattern) played out also. The major move is close to completing the range target now and I won't be chasing it.

Back to the drawing board. My gut feel is to go back to these fade entries early on in the day. They have worked well (most of the time) in the past. The trick will be to not create any disastrous situations.

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  #10 (permalink)
 kickmic 
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
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JohnnyBadger View Post
Three of my set-ups played out with no entry here.

hey Badger - what are these setups? want to attach a chart with them identified? just because the trade worked doesnt mean you should have taken it

fading can be a bad habit to develop if not already profitable trading with-trend.

I trade the SPI, although no trades today as had long calls on WPL from Friday and a fade (shock horror) on AMP at $5.90.
Since closed the WPL and AMP has moved my way, so will look for any setups in SPI now

attach a chart and I make comment

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  #11 (permalink)
JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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Hi kickmic

XJO on the attatchment - method is mainly range extentions and contractions with 5 day pivots in blue. Assumption is that prices trade in 42 and 21 point ranges. Various methods for entries with 10 point initial stops.

Trade 1 Short the resistance cluster based on my headline call that prices today will move back to the primary pivot and 42point range down (24 hour).

Trade 2 Countertrend. Buy 21 point down morning move in an uptrending market. Primary pivot support too.

Trade 3 Short the value area (averages) on the 10 minute chart assuming a move to 42 down in in motion.

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  #12 (permalink)
 kickmic 
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: InteractiveBrokers, CQG
Trading: 6A
 
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Posts: 281 since May 2011
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cool - good one form posting a chart

okay - this is only aimed at helping - you can of course disregard if you feel it adds confusion

my first thought was I'm not sure if your pivot levels and your rules of 21 and 42 and getting you into trades without seeing just the price action in front of you?

Made a couple of points - FYI SPI often reverses between 2 and 3. Also, SPI often puts in big trend days on Mondays (didn't today)
Can you plot just the day session? The overnight session levels are pretty much ignored during the day. You've probably noticed the massive spread and stuff all volume through the session - lucky if you get double digits on the bid/ask
I still like to know what they were, but I formulate plans around RTH session hours.

Not sure of your MA settings - but using a 10 MIN chart like you are using, I whacked in a 20 and 50 EMA (which I use). I concentrate on the 20EMA as far as direction is concerned, and just really use the 50 so I can view the relationship between the bands. When the are close together is generally price contraction, when they are wide apart is price expansion. And then I'll also look at price in relation to the bands. I don't want to be entering just after price expansion. The high on the chart is MA's expanded away from each other AND price expanded away from MA's. When price had moved up to those highs off the inside level - it's a case of the obvious - and its the obvious that catches out retail traders, like those who went long on the first dip of the day.
The lower higher was a great "shoulder trade". The high was the head, and rather than trying to pick tops, waiting for the lower high after the outcome was known was a low risk short trade.
Retest fails (double tops and bottoms) are powerful signals, particularly the longer the period of time between them.

The retest off the previous low is technically a counter trend trade - so without going into market structure and bias stuff to validate a long entry, there is a with trend higher low entry and you can enter before price has expanded... I traded that move and whacked in limit order to sell at 48 just below day's high. Notice that's where price and the MA's are expanded away.

hope this makes sense

You may know of an Australian trader Davin Clarke. I spent quite a bit of time with him and what he really got me tuned into was expansion and contraction - just as I have explained above. The channels are Keltners and there just to give me a visual reminder of where wholesale and retail is - Sometimes I leave them on/sometimes off the charts, so just ignore those


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  #13 (permalink)
JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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Thanks for the reply mic,

You gave me couple of good things to think about. I've got until Christmas running this method and will re-access after that. My analysis has always been good so translating that into great results is the challenge.

Thanks again.

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JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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One trade this morning and took a stop out on the bottom tick of the the whole move. Ohh that didn't turn out so well.

Counter trend needs to be managed better than I did this morning. Or just don't do it.

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  #15 (permalink)
JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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Fact, my analysis is very good.

Fact, my trading results are not as good as the analysis.

I will reduce my trade size again. Re-access after 50 positions are traded.

After 50 trades my position can increase slightly if I think this is worthwhile.


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JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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Still facing the same issues as the last week. Waiting for a great looking chart then looking back and thinking "that obvious falls into my criteria what was I doing" and secondly not digging deep to make the most of a situation.

Saying that the results were an improvement.

1 position +0.3pts

1 position + 12.8pts

I believe dropping the trade size is a positive move and it won't take me long to move back to a size I'm happy with.

2 trades out of 50.

48 to go.

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  #17 (permalink)
JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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This week has been the first full week that I've really concentrated on day trading the SPI. No forex trades this week. ATM I feel the two methods need to be consolidated (same rules longer time frame). Finished the week around even which sounds so so. Not terrible and not great although many positives have come out of this week. It's only worth touching on these positives at the moment because I'm tired and slightly over the limit. I've found a routine that should be able to be kept up to Christmas. I've built a group of simple entry and exit rules to help with decision fatigue and am confident that I can make a real jump with the results. Update again over the weekend.

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JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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Managed to fade the early move but I had the Headline call as bullish and took the trade off. Bad move. The high open should of been a red light for that strategy. Prices traded down until nearly 3pm and hit two large range targets (without me on it).

11 1/2 points gain anyway. Today is another positive day and I feel that something good is building here.

From now until Friday 28th Nov I'll commit to a full day.

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JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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Disappointing week result wise. I lost the plot mentally mid week and went and made surfboards instead of trading. The strong move down gave plenty of opportunity for winning trades but I didn't capitalize. Reason being I had no effective strategy to trade the gap opens. A couple of days I missed the entry by less than two points and then let it move to the downside without a trade on. One morning I stopped out at the extreme of the move and generally didn't put up much of a fight.

Positive is that I went back to the books and read through the Dilernia stuff. This has pointed out some of the flaws in my approach and some of the weak areas of the method.

Lastly it seems that when I get in there and scrap, put on multiple trades and fight my way into a winning position the results are worthy. Usually when I just cruise nothing happens because I wait for the perfect entry which doesn't appear often enough.

Possibly there lies the answer.

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JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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To be honest my trading hasn't found a good rhythm. I've been trying to get two similar methods working towards the one goal. Current result is poor success. This week I focused on day trading the SPI, although at the start of the week that wasn't the plan. Profits are miniscule and it took so very much focus and energy that this approach drowned any energy I had for other trading endeavors. At the end of most days I was glad when time reached 4.30pm Australian EST. Whether it be a loss or a win, I'll get away.

One asks themselves? Stay solid and tough or be smart and change? Should I keep moving in the same direction or should I change my approach?

Fact, 2015 is coming fast. I want everything to flow. Always in the back of my mind it screams don't day trade. Use the longer term charts because.

One side of me says, No! you can create something great out of the day trading and the other side of me says the whole method is too much for me to handle.

This week I'm going to flip flop from last week. The focus is to be on the six crosses and less on the SPI (day tradeing). I'm going to work with the longer term charts. It means a whole different mindset. It means, changing sides without feeling guilty.

It means a change of routine but not skills.

Much respect for the futures.io (formerly BMT) crew and any comments are welcome.

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  #21 (permalink)
 RADO 
Melbourne, Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
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JohnnyBadger View Post
To be honest my trading hasn't found a good rhythm. I've been trying to get two similar methods working towards the one goal. Current result is poor success. This week I focused on day trading the SPI, although at the start of the week that wasn't the plan. Profits are miniscule and it took so very much focus and energy that this approach drowned any energy I had for other trading endeavors. At the end of most days I was glad when time reached 4.30pm Australian EST. Whether it be a loss or a win, I'll get away.

One asks themselves? Stay solid and tough or be smart and change? Should I keep moving in the same direction or should I change my approach?

Fact, 2015 is coming fast. I want everything to flow. Always in the back of my mind it screams don't day trade. Use the longer term charts because.

One side of me says, No! you can create something great out of the day trading and the other side of me says the whole method is too much for me to handle.

This week I'm going to flip flop from last week. The focus is to be on the six crosses and less on the SPI (day tradeing). I'm going to work with the longer term charts. It means a whole different mindset. It means, changing sides without feeling guilty.

It means a change of routine but not skills.

Much respect for the futures.io (formerly BMT) crew and any comments are welcome.

This post really resonated with me, I think because I was in this position once and I know many other traders have been also.
It always catches my attention when I see people on here talking about the SPI because not many people trade it when you compare it to CL, ES, YM etc... not to mention the high tick value of $25 which makes it more difficult. (unless you use CFD's)

I think the answers to all your questions are within what you have posted.
You have success with longer term charts, but you want to change to a day trading approach because you like the idea of being a day trader. I guess both styles have their merits, long term (takes less time out of your day, less stressful, ability to catch those macro trends..etc) Short term (no overnight risk, done by 4:30, more exciting, draw down recovery time is less) But if it ain't broke do you need to fix it? Perhaps you see more opportunity in short term trading but you haven't managed to adapt to it yet.

I went through the same thing, since I started trading the SPI I have been consistently profitably, and it was the first futures contract I ever traded, but this was after losing money trading stocks, CFD's and FX for a while.

I started trading the SPI using the 1 Hour chart holding positions overnight or only for hours or minutes. I then switched to a 5 range chart (still eyeballing the 1 hour chart), then the 3 range chart, which helped me. I also only use a DOM to place my orders as well. I recommend not trading the SPI during the first 3 weeks of the year as well.

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JohnnyBadger
Perth Western Australia Australia
 
 
Posts: 19 since Nov 2014
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The current intention is to take positions on the major currencies, commodities and indices using CFDs. Trade ideas will be generated off 4hr and Daily charts. Basic style of risk-reward management primarily using traditional swing patterns and moving averages.

SPI-XJO day trading is off for the time being.

I plan to keep this journal updated two or three times a week.

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