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XJO on the attatchment - method is mainly range extentions and contractions with 5 day pivots in blue. Assumption is that prices trade in 42 and 21 point ranges. Various methods for entries with 10 point initial stops.
Trade 1 Short the resistance cluster based on my headline call that prices today will move back to the primary pivot and 42point range down (24 hour).
Trade 2 Countertrend. Buy 21 point down morning move in an uptrending market. Primary pivot support too.
Trade 3 Short the value area (averages) on the 10 minute chart assuming a move to 42 down in in motion.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
okay - this is only aimed at helping - you can of course disregard if you feel it adds confusion
my first thought was I'm not sure if your pivot levels and your rules of 21 and 42 and getting you into trades without seeing just the price action in front of you?
Made a couple of points - FYI SPI often reverses between 2 and 3. Also, SPI often puts in big trend days on Mondays (didn't today)
Can you plot just the day session? The overnight session levels are pretty much ignored during the day. You've probably noticed the massive spread and stuff all volume through the session - lucky if you get double digits on the bid/ask
I still like to know what they were, but I formulate plans around RTH session hours.
Not sure of your MA settings - but using a 10 MIN chart like you are using, I whacked in a 20 and 50 EMA (which I use). I concentrate on the 20EMA as far as direction is concerned, and just really use the 50 so I can view the relationship between the bands. When the are close together is generally price contraction, when they are wide apart is price expansion. And then I'll also look at price in relation to the bands. I don't want to be entering just after price expansion. The high on the chart is MA's expanded away from each other AND price expanded away from MA's. When price had moved up to those highs off the inside level - it's a case of the obvious - and its the obvious that catches out retail traders, like those who went long on the first dip of the day.
The lower higher was a great "shoulder trade". The high was the head, and rather than trying to pick tops, waiting for the lower high after the outcome was known was a low risk short trade.
Retest fails (double tops and bottoms) are powerful signals, particularly the longer the period of time between them.
The retest off the previous low is technically a counter trend trade - so without going into market structure and bias stuff to validate a long entry, there is a with trend higher low entry and you can enter before price has expanded... I traded that move and whacked in limit order to sell at 48 just below day's high. Notice that's where price and the MA's are expanded away.
hope this makes sense
You may know of an Australian trader Davin Clarke. I spent quite a bit of time with him and what he really got me tuned into was expansion and contraction - just as I have explained above. The channels are Keltners and there just to give me a visual reminder of where wholesale and retail is - Sometimes I leave them on/sometimes off the charts, so just ignore those
You gave me couple of good things to think about. I've got until Christmas running this method and will re-access after that. My analysis has always been good so translating that into great results is the challenge.
Still facing the same issues as the last week. Waiting for a great looking chart then looking back and thinking "that obvious falls into my criteria what was I doing" and secondly not digging deep to make the most of a situation.
Saying that the results were an improvement.
1 position +0.3pts
1 position + 12.8pts
I believe dropping the trade size is a positive move and it won't take me long to move back to a size I'm happy with.
This week has been the first full week that I've really concentrated on day trading the SPI. No forex trades this week. ATM I feel the two methods need to be consolidated (same rules longer time frame). Finished the week around even which sounds so so. Not terrible and not great although many positives have come out of this week. It's only worth touching on these positives at the moment because I'm tired and slightly over the limit. I've found a routine that should be able to be kept up to Christmas. I've built a group of simple entry and exit rules to help with decision fatigue and am confident that I can make a real jump with the results. Update again over the weekend.
Managed to fade the early move but I had the Headline call as bullish and took the trade off. Bad move. The high open should of been a red light for that strategy. Prices traded down until nearly 3pm and hit two large range targets (without me on it).
11 1/2 points gain anyway. Today is another positive day and I feel that something good is building here.
From now until Friday 28th Nov I'll commit to a full day.
Disappointing week result wise. I lost the plot mentally mid week and went and made surfboards instead of trading. The strong move down gave plenty of opportunity for winning trades but I didn't capitalize. Reason being I had no effective strategy to trade the gap opens. A couple of days I missed the entry by less than two points and then let it move to the downside without a trade on. One morning I stopped out at the extreme of the move and generally didn't put up much of a fight.
Positive is that I went back to the books and read through the Dilernia stuff. This has pointed out some of the flaws in my approach and some of the weak areas of the method.
Lastly it seems that when I get in there and scrap, put on multiple trades and fight my way into a winning position the results are worthy. Usually when I just cruise nothing happens because I wait for the perfect entry which doesn't appear often enough.
To be honest my trading hasn't found a good rhythm. I've been trying to get two similar methods working towards the one goal. Current result is poor success. This week I focused on day trading the SPI, although at the start of the week that wasn't the plan. Profits are miniscule and it took so very much focus and energy that this approach drowned any energy I had for other trading endeavors. At the end of most days I was glad when time reached 4.30pm Australian EST. Whether it be a loss or a win, I'll get away.
One asks themselves? Stay solid and tough or be smart and change? Should I keep moving in the same direction or should I change my approach?
Fact, 2015 is coming fast. I want everything to flow. Always in the back of my mind it screams don't day trade. Use the longer term charts because.
One side of me says, No! you can create something great out of the day trading and the other side of me says the whole method is too much for me to handle.
This week I'm going to flip flop from last week. The focus is to be on the six crosses and less on the SPI (day tradeing). I'm going to work with the longer term charts. It means a whole different mindset. It means, changing sides without feeling guilty.
It means a change of routine but not skills.
Much respect for the futures.io (formerly BMT) crew and any comments are welcome.
