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Learning the ES: month 2, beating the odds


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Learning the ES: month 2, beating the odds

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  #1 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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Motivated by the great advice I received in my first journal, I've decided to continue the journaling process, to continue to clarify my thoughts and to get feedback on anything that seems like it's way out in left-field. My trading experience is as follows:


September (pre futures.io (formerly BMT)): -5K
October (Month 1 futures.io (formerly BMT)): -4.4K

November starting account: 5.7K


Wow, makes those combines seem cheap! Based on the downtrend in my P&L, decreased capitalization, and the fact that I'm continuing to trade live with less than 6 months of experience, the odds are stacked against a successful month. Yet, for some reason, I like to be in this position, being the underdog, having to laser focus my mental resources to overcome the odds. It's during these times where I learn the most, though the lessons may be expensive.

On the upside, I feel like I've come to some realizations this past week that have given me a significant boost in confidence, which I hope translates to a boost in P&L. The game plan this month is to stay alive, persist and survive.

Happy Movember to all!

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  #3 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
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Haven't posted updates due to high emotional stress and embarrassment at such poor performance. In the past 3 days, i've lost another 2K or so in my real account, and made about 5K in fake account...TAKING THE SAME INITIAL TRADES! arggh... in my real account, i keep hopping in and out of the trades. in my fake account, i just keep it until it hits target, with about a 10 point (not tick) stop loss.

today was a beautiful "fat-tail" trend day, that followed the second pattern for a slow grind day: initial dip, finishes at the high...that I completely screwed up, again!! I told myself it was that after it crossed back over 16s and STILL shook myself out of trades. Instead of one nice clean trade, i had 10 ugly trades that killed me. i don't know why i do this to myself repeatedly, over and over, day after day.

I'm entertaining just quitting live trading, and trying to pass a combine instead. the price of a combine is about 20% of what my average daily loss is. so far on my free trial combine, i'm positive 4/4 days.

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 JonnyBoy 
Market Wizard
Montreal, Quebec
 
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Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
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jackbravo View Post
Haven't posted updates due to high emotional stress and embarrassment at such poor performance. In the past 3 days, i've lost another 2K or so in my real account, and made about 5K in fake account...TAKING THE SAME INITIAL TRADES! arggh... in my real account, i keep hopping in and out of the trades. in my fake account, i just keep it until it hits target, with about a 10 point (not tick) stop loss.

today was a beautiful "fat-tail" trend day, that followed the second pattern for a slow grind day: initial dip, finishes at the high...that I completely screwed up, again!! I told myself it was that after it crossed back over 16s and STILL shook myself out of trades. Instead of one nice clean trade, i had 10 ugly trades that killed me. i don't know why i do this to myself repeatedly, over and over, day after day.

I'm entertaining just quitting live trading, and trying to pass a combine instead. the price of a combine is about 20% of what my average daily loss is. so far on my free trial combine, i'm positive 4/4 days.

No way should you feel embarrasment at poor performance. Trading is tough business. I advise you to keep up with your journal no matter what.

I, like many on futures.io (formerly BMT) have been there, losing thousands of dollars each day/week/month. I was so desperate at one point as nearly all my trades lost, I started doing the reverse. When I would have normally bought the market (thinking I had a great setup) I sold it instead and vice versa!

You will get there. Keep learning.

--------------------------------------------------------
- Trade what you see. Invest in what you believe -
--------------------------------------------------------
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  #5 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,361 given, 2,389 received


JonnyBoy View Post
No way should you feel embarrasment at poor performance. Trading is tough business. I advise you to keep up with your journal no matter what.

I, like many on futures.io (formerly BMT) have been there, losing thousands of dollars each day/week/month. I was so desperate at one point as nearly all my trades lost, I started doing the reverse. When I would have normally bought the market (thinking I had a great setup) I sold it instead and vice versa!

You will get there. Keep learning.

Thanks for the encouragement man. I've started to get moments of clarity where I can see what the good trade is. Unfortunately, those moments are few and far between, and are totally killed by all the other sucky moments. I've gone down to trading micro-euros, which seem easier to handle than the minis, but still losing money due to overtrading. My modus operandi is two great trades followed by 10-15 terrible trades which completely erase all winnings and add more losses. It's fascinating, though, so I doubt I'll give it up, maybe just scale down until I'm consistent.

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Wojo13
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jackbravo View Post
Thanks for the encouragement man. I've started to get moments of clarity where I can see what the good trade is. Unfortunately, those moments are few and far between, and are totally killed by all the other sucky moments. I've gone down to trading micro-euros, which seem easier to handle than the minis, but still losing money due to overtrading. My modus operandi is two great trades followed by 10-15 terrible trades which completely erase all winnings and add more losses. It's fascinating, though, so I doubt I'll give it up, maybe just scale down until I'm consistent.


First thing slow down. Don't execute a trade until you see that trade unfolding clearly. Set yourself a list of Rules and post it on you wall. RULE#1. DONT OVERTRADE. RULE#2. DONT TRADE BETWEEN (such and such) a time. Rule #3. Stop trading when I meet my daily goal, ect.

Watch more videos. Dont be so trigger happy to jump in trades or your account will keep being drained. Set yourself a small daily loss limit. if you make 150.00 or lose 150.00 you quit for the day. RULE#4. Do Not Trade to get out of a deficit.

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 JonnyBoy 
Market Wizard
Montreal, Quebec
 
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jackbravo View Post
Thanks for the encouragement man. I've started to get moments of clarity where I can see what the good trade is. Unfortunately, those moments are few and far between, and are totally killed by all the other sucky moments. I've gone down to trading micro-euros, which seem easier to handle than the minis, but still losing money due to overtrading. My modus operandi is two great trades followed by 10-15 terrible trades which completely erase all winnings and add more losses. It's fascinating, though, so I doubt I'll give it up, maybe just scale down until I'm consistent.

I think 10-15 trades per day is excessive. I don't know your method, but you should be looking to concentrate on one or two types of trade and get to know them inside and out before you move on.

It sounds like you are taking pot shots at the market and perhaps don't have a real reason to enter other than thinking you have to.

--------------------------------------------------------
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--------------------------------------------------------
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 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,361 given, 2,389 received


Wojo13 View Post
First thing slow down. Don't execute a trade until you see that trade unfolding clearly. Set yourself a list of Rules and post it on you wall. RULE#1. DONT OVERTRADE. RULE#2. DONT TRADE BETWEEN (such and such) a time. Rule #3. Stop trading when I meet my daily goal, ect.

Watch more videos. Dont be so trigger happy to jump in trades or your account will keep being drained. Set yourself a small daily loss limit. if you make 150.00 or lose 150.00 you quit for the day. RULE#4. Do Not Trade to get out of a deficit.

I'm aware of these rules, yet it's psychologically very difficult for me to implement them when I'm not thinking clearly. Even something as small as stepping away from the screen during FOMC. When I'm rational and thinking clearly, rules are easy to implement. I'm trying to come up with some rules that I can trust myself to implement during times of high emotion/action.


JonnyBoy View Post
I think 10-15 trades per day is excessive. I don't know your method, but you should be looking to concentrate on one or two types of trade and get to know them inside and out before you move on.

It sounds like you are taking pot shots at the market and perhaps don't have a real reason to enter other than thinking you have to.

Definitely. My first couple of trades are usually reasonable. My method involves watching correlated markets, then trading the price action in a certain direction. By many times, the markets become uncorrelated or switch themes, and I'm not nimble enough or know enough to switch as quickly. This gets reflected in the price action as a lot of noise, which I end up trading right in the middle of. Here is a pictorial of what I typically do:




First good trade complete erased + additional losses from all subsequent trades. That's most days. Some days, when the first couple of trades suck, it usually means I've misread the market, and the rest of the day's trades suck even worse. All in all, I have a highly asymmetric negative return....the exact opposite of my goals.

When I sim trade, my trades are much better:



I find it very hard to translate SIM trading into live trading.

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 JonnyBoy 
Market Wizard
Montreal, Quebec
 
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jackbravo View Post

I find it very hard to translate SIM trading into live trading.

In my opinion, SIM trading can help you define your trading style, money management and setups - but that is it. As I have stated time and time again LIVE trading is a totally different animal and until you feel the pain of losing real hard earned money, then and only then, does the reality of getting your arse handed to you on a regular basis bite.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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jackbravo View Post
...
Definitely. My first couple of trades are usually reasonable. My method involves watching correlated markets, then trading the price action in a certain direction. By many times, the markets become uncorrelated or switch themes, and I'm not nimble enough or know enough to switch as quickly. This gets reflected in the price action as a lot of noise, which I end up trading right in the middle of. Here is a pictorial of what I typically do:..

Maybe your system is too vague in certain areas and create a feeling of uneasiness, apprehension, or fear when trading with real money. There should not be too many gray areas in your system otherwise you open the door to your demons.

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