Learning the ES: month 2, beating the odds - futures io
futures io futures trading



Learning the ES: month 2, beating the odds


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one jackbravo with 5 posts (7 thanks)
    2. looks_two JonnyBoy with 3 posts (4 thanks)
    3. looks_3 fminus with 1 posts (1 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Quick Summary with 1 posts (0 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one trendisyourfriend with 3 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Wojo13 with 2 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 jackbravo with 1.4 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 JonnyBoy with 1.3 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 2,180 views
    2. thumb_up 18 thanks given
    3. group 5 followers
    1. forum 12 posts
    2. attach_file 2 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Learning the ES: month 2, beating the odds

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,338 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,340 given, 2,389 received

Motivated by the great advice I received in my first journal, I've decided to continue the journaling process, to continue to clarify my thoughts and to get feedback on anything that seems like it's way out in left-field. My trading experience is as follows:


September (pre futures.io (formerly BMT)): -5K
October (Month 1 futures.io (formerly BMT)): -4.4K

November starting account: 5.7K


Wow, makes those combines seem cheap! Based on the downtrend in my P&L, decreased capitalization, and the fact that I'm continuing to trade live with less than 6 months of experience, the odds are stacked against a successful month. Yet, for some reason, I like to be in this position, being the underdog, having to laser focus my mental resources to overcome the odds. It's during these times where I learn the most, though the lessons may be expensive.

On the upside, I feel like I've come to some realizations this past week that have given me a significant boost in confidence, which I hope translates to a boost in P&L. The game plan this month is to stay alive, persist and survive.

Happy Movember to all!

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to jackbravo for this post:

Journal Challenge February 2021 results (so far):
Competing for $1500 in prizes from Topstep
looks_oneSBtrader82 's Trading Journalby SBtrader82
(154 thanks from 29 posts)
looks_twoJust BEING a Trader: Letting Go!!by iqgod
(111 thanks from 32 posts)
looks_3Wisdom is Emptinessby Mtype
(68 thanks from 25 posts)
looks_4Deetee’s DAX Trading Journal (time based)by Deetee
(31 thanks from 16 posts)
looks_5Journal for peanuts1956by peanuts1956
(23 thanks from 13 posts)
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,338 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,340 given, 2,389 received


Haven't posted updates due to high emotional stress and embarrassment at such poor performance. In the past 3 days, i've lost another 2K or so in my real account, and made about 5K in fake account...TAKING THE SAME INITIAL TRADES! arggh... in my real account, i keep hopping in and out of the trades. in my fake account, i just keep it until it hits target, with about a 10 point (not tick) stop loss.

today was a beautiful "fat-tail" trend day, that followed the second pattern for a slow grind day: initial dip, finishes at the high...that I completely screwed up, again!! I told myself it was that after it crossed back over 16s and STILL shook myself out of trades. Instead of one nice clean trade, i had 10 ugly trades that killed me. i don't know why i do this to myself repeatedly, over and over, day after day.

I'm entertaining just quitting live trading, and trying to pass a combine instead. the price of a combine is about 20% of what my average daily loss is. so far on my free trial combine, i'm positive 4/4 days.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to jackbravo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Montreal, Quebec
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
JonnyBoy's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,559 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 706 given, 3,726 received


jackbravo View Post
Haven't posted updates due to high emotional stress and embarrassment at such poor performance. In the past 3 days, i've lost another 2K or so in my real account, and made about 5K in fake account...TAKING THE SAME INITIAL TRADES! arggh... in my real account, i keep hopping in and out of the trades. in my fake account, i just keep it until it hits target, with about a 10 point (not tick) stop loss.

today was a beautiful "fat-tail" trend day, that followed the second pattern for a slow grind day: initial dip, finishes at the high...that I completely screwed up, again!! I told myself it was that after it crossed back over 16s and STILL shook myself out of trades. Instead of one nice clean trade, i had 10 ugly trades that killed me. i don't know why i do this to myself repeatedly, over and over, day after day.

I'm entertaining just quitting live trading, and trying to pass a combine instead. the price of a combine is about 20% of what my average daily loss is. so far on my free trial combine, i'm positive 4/4 days.

No way should you feel embarrasment at poor performance. Trading is tough business. I advise you to keep up with your journal no matter what.

I, like many on futures.io (formerly BMT) have been there, losing thousands of dollars each day/week/month. I was so desperate at one point as nearly all my trades lost, I started doing the reverse. When I would have normally bought the market (thinking I had a great setup) I sold it instead and vice versa!

You will get there. Keep learning.

--------------------------------------------------------
- Trade what you see. Invest in what you believe -
--------------------------------------------------------
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to JonnyBoy for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,338 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,340 given, 2,389 received


JonnyBoy View Post
No way should you feel embarrasment at poor performance. Trading is tough business. I advise you to keep up with your journal no matter what.

I, like many on futures.io (formerly BMT) have been there, losing thousands of dollars each day/week/month. I was so desperate at one point as nearly all my trades lost, I started doing the reverse. When I would have normally bought the market (thinking I had a great setup) I sold it instead and vice versa!

You will get there. Keep learning.

Thanks for the encouragement man. I've started to get moments of clarity where I can see what the good trade is. Unfortunately, those moments are few and far between, and are totally killed by all the other sucky moments. I've gone down to trading micro-euros, which seem easier to handle than the minis, but still losing money due to overtrading. My modus operandi is two great trades followed by 10-15 terrible trades which completely erase all winnings and add more losses. It's fascinating, though, so I doubt I'll give it up, maybe just scale down until I'm consistent.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
Detroit, MI/United States
 
 
Posts: 3 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received


jackbravo View Post
Thanks for the encouragement man. I've started to get moments of clarity where I can see what the good trade is. Unfortunately, those moments are few and far between, and are totally killed by all the other sucky moments. I've gone down to trading micro-euros, which seem easier to handle than the minis, but still losing money due to overtrading. My modus operandi is two great trades followed by 10-15 terrible trades which completely erase all winnings and add more losses. It's fascinating, though, so I doubt I'll give it up, maybe just scale down until I'm consistent.


First thing slow down. Don't execute a trade until you see that trade unfolding clearly. Set yourself a list of Rules and post it on you wall. RULE#1. DONT OVERTRADE. RULE#2. DONT TRADE BETWEEN (such and such) a time. Rule #3. Stop trading when I meet my daily goal, ect.

Watch more videos. Dont be so trigger happy to jump in trades or your account will keep being drained. Set yourself a small daily loss limit. if you make 150.00 or lose 150.00 you quit for the day. RULE#4. Do Not Trade to get out of a deficit.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Wojo13 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Montreal, Quebec
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
JonnyBoy's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,559 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 706 given, 3,726 received


jackbravo View Post
Thanks for the encouragement man. I've started to get moments of clarity where I can see what the good trade is. Unfortunately, those moments are few and far between, and are totally killed by all the other sucky moments. I've gone down to trading micro-euros, which seem easier to handle than the minis, but still losing money due to overtrading. My modus operandi is two great trades followed by 10-15 terrible trades which completely erase all winnings and add more losses. It's fascinating, though, so I doubt I'll give it up, maybe just scale down until I'm consistent.

I think 10-15 trades per day is excessive. I don't know your method, but you should be looking to concentrate on one or two types of trade and get to know them inside and out before you move on.

It sounds like you are taking pot shots at the market and perhaps don't have a real reason to enter other than thinking you have to.

--------------------------------------------------------
- Trade what you see. Invest in what you believe -
--------------------------------------------------------
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to JonnyBoy for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,338 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,340 given, 2,389 received


Wojo13 View Post
First thing slow down. Don't execute a trade until you see that trade unfolding clearly. Set yourself a list of Rules and post it on you wall. RULE#1. DONT OVERTRADE. RULE#2. DONT TRADE BETWEEN (such and such) a time. Rule #3. Stop trading when I meet my daily goal, ect.

Watch more videos. Dont be so trigger happy to jump in trades or your account will keep being drained. Set yourself a small daily loss limit. if you make 150.00 or lose 150.00 you quit for the day. RULE#4. Do Not Trade to get out of a deficit.

I'm aware of these rules, yet it's psychologically very difficult for me to implement them when I'm not thinking clearly. Even something as small as stepping away from the screen during FOMC. When I'm rational and thinking clearly, rules are easy to implement. I'm trying to come up with some rules that I can trust myself to implement during times of high emotion/action.


JonnyBoy View Post
I think 10-15 trades per day is excessive. I don't know your method, but you should be looking to concentrate on one or two types of trade and get to know them inside and out before you move on.

It sounds like you are taking pot shots at the market and perhaps don't have a real reason to enter other than thinking you have to.

Definitely. My first couple of trades are usually reasonable. My method involves watching correlated markets, then trading the price action in a certain direction. By many times, the markets become uncorrelated or switch themes, and I'm not nimble enough or know enough to switch as quickly. This gets reflected in the price action as a lot of noise, which I end up trading right in the middle of. Here is a pictorial of what I typically do:




First good trade complete erased + additional losses from all subsequent trades. That's most days. Some days, when the first couple of trades suck, it usually means I've misread the market, and the rest of the day's trades suck even worse. All in all, I have a highly asymmetric negative return....the exact opposite of my goals.

When I sim trade, my trades are much better:



I find it very hard to translate SIM trading into live trading.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jackbravo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Montreal, Quebec
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Kinetick
Trading: ES
 
JonnyBoy's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,559 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 706 given, 3,726 received


jackbravo View Post

I find it very hard to translate SIM trading into live trading.

In my opinion, SIM trading can help you define your trading style, money management and setups - but that is it. As I have stated time and time again LIVE trading is a totally different animal and until you feel the pain of losing real hard earned money, then and only then, does the reality of getting your arse handed to you on a regular basis bite.

--------------------------------------------------------
- Trade what you see. Invest in what you believe -
--------------------------------------------------------
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to JonnyBoy for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Quebec
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,978 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,656 given, 5,117 received



jackbravo View Post
...
Definitely. My first couple of trades are usually reasonable. My method involves watching correlated markets, then trading the price action in a certain direction. By many times, the markets become uncorrelated or switch themes, and I'm not nimble enough or know enough to switch as quickly. This gets reflected in the price action as a lot of noise, which I end up trading right in the middle of. Here is a pictorial of what I typically do:..

Maybe your system is too vague in certain areas and create a feeling of uneasiness, apprehension, or fear when trading with real money. There should not be too many gray areas in your system otherwise you open the door to your demons.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
Dallas, Tx, USA
 
 
Posts: 42 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 5 given, 17 received

you have wave syndrome perfectly normal, every human has it almost. some ideas ok for buy setup reverse for short.

buy setup trend currently up.

1.) wait for trend direction change via long input simple moving average.
2.) enter trade on counter trend swing down using short period oscillator.
3.) use stop if you wish

only enter counter trend entries in opposite direction of major trend direction. tough to buy when the market is going down but that is what you have to do, the opposite of everyone else.

let me clarify again broad market going up enter your buy on short term down blip (while it is going down) make the market come get you. right now you are chasing the market letting it lead you around like a surfer on a wave, bobbing up and down. become a battleship and cut right through the data.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to markbrown for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,338 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,340 given, 2,389 received

Thanks for your comments. My system is vague, and I do tend to trade in the middle. Part of that reason though is that I've gotten caught too many times trying to pick out the top or bottom, when really it was just the middle. I'm trying to find the fine line between picking out tops and bottoms and entering a trade too much after it has started. But really, the most difficult part is the exit. While I'm struggling to fine tune my entries, my exits are still grossly abysmal and not even close to the fine tuning part....that's where I really need to work, in addition to battling whatever masochistic tendencies that take pleasure from making myself lose. All in all, I found the following post that puts into words what I believe but haven't been able to communicate:


Quoting 
Rather it was my extensive study of market behavior, of the "tells" it gives that help me identify the market's trend. I had to learn to embrace the inherent ambiguity of all market behavior - to learn that there are no certainties, only probabilities. I had to create my own interpretation of everything, even though I used the knowledge I found in books about the market and trading as a starting point.

I am now able to trade without a system, without a detailed plan but with money management. All the guru's say YOU NEED a specific entry and exit plan but I don't use one.

Is the problem in the simple set-ups themselves? No, it's how they're being used. The bottom line is that every trader needs to learn to READ the markets. This means that simple rules will not do. There has to be a synthesis of different elements (whether they be price action, indicators, inter-market themes or whatever), and real-time interpretation must take place. It has to be all about CONTEXT. Once you can read the markets in an unbiased way you can then choose to employ "simple" set-ups to enter and exit. But the real work will be in learning to READ THE MARKET to see when you should use which kind of set-up. CONTEXT! It's all about context. Stop trying to trade on signals and setups that pretend that the market context is always the same. Embrace uncertainty! Embrace ambiguity! Embrace change!

Have you ever played a shooting game like Call of Duty 4 or Halo 3? The players who are very good at these games haven't got a system, they don't spend up at night thinking about the best place to camp with a shotgun. They practice playing the game. They master it. The difference between a winner and loser isn't that the winner knows a secret, or paid someone to teach them the secrets, or have a system of using power-ups to beat people. The winners win because they are more skillful, they have learned how to play, they have mastered the game. They have a better aim than other player, but this isn't through a combination of indicators like 'Press UP + B'. It's through skill,skill, skill, skill.

The same is true of good athletes in any competitive sport. They don't plan their moves against their opponents in advance. Instead they play by following general principles they know work time after time, and they rely on their game experience to make the right play in response to their opponent's action in the context of the specific game situation.

That's my goal of trading: reading the market, being able to manage my uncertainty, entering a trade in a reasonable (not necessarily ideal) location, exiting in an ideal location. I'd like to use indicators to help define structure to the market, within a given context, rather than using them as signal generators. I'm just not sure how to accomplish these goals expediently without spending years gaining the necessary experience. Currently, I'd say I have about 1000 hours of active market engagement in the last 6 months (with an average loss of $15/hr--grrrrr!). At this rate, I feel like I need at least 2000-3000 more hours of live markets before I can really start to become profitable, yet don't have the funds to sustain that unless I can become a scratch trader rather quickly.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to jackbravo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
Washington DC
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT
Broker: Dorman
Trading: US Treasuries
 
fminus's Avatar
 
Posts: 126 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 156 given, 291 received


jackbravo View Post
Thanks for your comments. My system is vague, and I do tend to trade in the middle. Part of that reason though is that I've gotten caught too many times trying to pick out the top or bottom, when really it was just the middle. I'm trying to find the fine line between picking out tops and bottoms and entering a trade too much after it has started. But really, the most difficult part is the exit. While I'm struggling to fine tune my entries, my exits are still grossly abysmal and not even close to the fine tuning part....that's where I really need to work, in addition to battling whatever masochistic tendencies that take pleasure from making myself lose. All in all, I found the following post that puts into words what I believe but haven't been able to communicate:



That's my goal of trading: reading the market, being able to manage my uncertainty, entering a trade in a reasonable (not necessarily ideal) location, exiting in an ideal location. I'd like to use indicators to help define structure to the market, within a given context, rather than using them as signal generators. I'm just not sure how to accomplish these goals expediently without spending years gaining the necessary experience. Currently, I'd say I have about 1000 hours of active market engagement in the last 6 months (with an average loss of $15/hr--grrrrr!). At this rate, I feel like I need at least 2000-3000 more hours of live markets before I can really start to become profitable, yet don't have the funds to sustain that unless I can become a scratch trader rather quickly.

Perhaps trading in SIM and not focusing on money will help you. The irony of trading is that most come in with dreams of how they'll buy their first porsche if they can just get that 1 trade where they bet the house. The more seasoned a trader gets, they realize that this is a very very tough game and requires stupid amounts of determination, commitment, and discipline to consistently eek out a profit. Most give up at this point realizing that this is no get rich quick scheme. For those that decide to continue on this road less traveled and even fewer reaching profitability, welcome to the suck. I'm not saying I have it all together all the time, but the inner battle is what makes trading hard. welcome to the fight.

In trading, shortcuts lead to the longest path possible.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to fminus for this post:


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > Learning the ES: month 2, beating the odds


Last Updated on February 9, 2015


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
 

Journal Challenge w/$1500 prizes from Topstep!

February
 

Identifying Setups & Targets Using Profile Charts w/Trevor & Tradovate

Feb 25
 

Battlestations! Show us your trading desk - $1,500 in prizes!

March
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts