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Learning the ES: month 2, beating the odds


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Learning the ES: month 2, beating the odds

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  #11 (permalink)
Dallas, Tx, USA
 
 
Posts: 42 since Mar 2013
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you have wave syndrome perfectly normal, every human has it almost. some ideas ok for buy setup reverse for short.

buy setup trend currently up.

1.) wait for trend direction change via long input simple moving average.
2.) enter trade on counter trend swing down using short period oscillator.
3.) use stop if you wish

only enter counter trend entries in opposite direction of major trend direction. tough to buy when the market is going down but that is what you have to do, the opposite of everyone else.

let me clarify again broad market going up enter your buy on short term down blip (while it is going down) make the market come get you. right now you are chasing the market letting it lead you around like a surfer on a wave, bobbing up and down. become a battleship and cut right through the data.

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  #12 (permalink)
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: ES, 6E, sometimes NQ, and occasionally CL
 
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Thanks for your comments. My system is vague, and I do tend to trade in the middle. Part of that reason though is that I've gotten caught too many times trying to pick out the top or bottom, when really it was just the middle. I'm trying to find the fine line between picking out tops and bottoms and entering a trade too much after it has started. But really, the most difficult part is the exit. While I'm struggling to fine tune my entries, my exits are still grossly abysmal and not even close to the fine tuning part....that's where I really need to work, in addition to battling whatever masochistic tendencies that take pleasure from making myself lose. All in all, I found the following post that puts into words what I believe but haven't been able to communicate:


Quoting 
Rather it was my extensive study of market behavior, of the "tells" it gives that help me identify the market's trend. I had to learn to embrace the inherent ambiguity of all market behavior - to learn that there are no certainties, only probabilities. I had to create my own interpretation of everything, even though I used the knowledge I found in books about the market and trading as a starting point.

I am now able to trade without a system, without a detailed plan but with money management. All the guru's say YOU NEED a specific entry and exit plan but I don't use one.

Is the problem in the simple set-ups themselves? No, it's how they're being used. The bottom line is that every trader needs to learn to READ the markets. This means that simple rules will not do. There has to be a synthesis of different elements (whether they be price action, indicators, inter-market themes or whatever), and real-time interpretation must take place. It has to be all about CONTEXT. Once you can read the markets in an unbiased way you can then choose to employ "simple" set-ups to enter and exit. But the real work will be in learning to READ THE MARKET to see when you should use which kind of set-up. CONTEXT! It's all about context. Stop trying to trade on signals and setups that pretend that the market context is always the same. Embrace uncertainty! Embrace ambiguity! Embrace change!

Have you ever played a shooting game like Call of Duty 4 or Halo 3? The players who are very good at these games haven't got a system, they don't spend up at night thinking about the best place to camp with a shotgun. They practice playing the game. They master it. The difference between a winner and loser isn't that the winner knows a secret, or paid someone to teach them the secrets, or have a system of using power-ups to beat people. The winners win because they are more skillful, they have learned how to play, they have mastered the game. They have a better aim than other player, but this isn't through a combination of indicators like 'Press UP + B'. It's through skill,skill, skill, skill.

The same is true of good athletes in any competitive sport. They don't plan their moves against their opponents in advance. Instead they play by following general principles they know work time after time, and they rely on their game experience to make the right play in response to their opponent's action in the context of the specific game situation.

That's my goal of trading: reading the market, being able to manage my uncertainty, entering a trade in a reasonable (not necessarily ideal) location, exiting in an ideal location. I'd like to use indicators to help define structure to the market, within a given context, rather than using them as signal generators. I'm just not sure how to accomplish these goals expediently without spending years gaining the necessary experience. Currently, I'd say I have about 1000 hours of active market engagement in the last 6 months (with an average loss of $15/hr--grrrrr!). At this rate, I feel like I need at least 2000-3000 more hours of live markets before I can really start to become profitable, yet don't have the funds to sustain that unless I can become a scratch trader rather quickly.

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  #13 (permalink)
Washington DC
 
Experience: Advanced
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jackbravo View Post
Thanks for your comments. My system is vague, and I do tend to trade in the middle. Part of that reason though is that I've gotten caught too many times trying to pick out the top or bottom, when really it was just the middle. I'm trying to find the fine line between picking out tops and bottoms and entering a trade too much after it has started. But really, the most difficult part is the exit. While I'm struggling to fine tune my entries, my exits are still grossly abysmal and not even close to the fine tuning part....that's where I really need to work, in addition to battling whatever masochistic tendencies that take pleasure from making myself lose. All in all, I found the following post that puts into words what I believe but haven't been able to communicate:



That's my goal of trading: reading the market, being able to manage my uncertainty, entering a trade in a reasonable (not necessarily ideal) location, exiting in an ideal location. I'd like to use indicators to help define structure to the market, within a given context, rather than using them as signal generators. I'm just not sure how to accomplish these goals expediently without spending years gaining the necessary experience. Currently, I'd say I have about 1000 hours of active market engagement in the last 6 months (with an average loss of $15/hr--grrrrr!). At this rate, I feel like I need at least 2000-3000 more hours of live markets before I can really start to become profitable, yet don't have the funds to sustain that unless I can become a scratch trader rather quickly.

Perhaps trading in SIM and not focusing on money will help you. The irony of trading is that most come in with dreams of how they'll buy their first porsche if they can just get that 1 trade where they bet the house. The more seasoned a trader gets, they realize that this is a very very tough game and requires stupid amounts of determination, commitment, and discipline to consistently eek out a profit. Most give up at this point realizing that this is no get rich quick scheme. For those that decide to continue on this road less traveled and even fewer reaching profitability, welcome to the suck. I'm not saying I have it all together all the time, but the inner battle is what makes trading hard. welcome to the fight.

In trading, shortcuts lead to the longest path possible.
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February 9, 2015


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