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eric J's indicator free Emini journal
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eric J's indicator free Emini journal

  #11 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
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Heres the one trade I took today .

This is a continuation signal , hit the 1st target then showed signs of weakness - a bar closing lower than the prior bars low .

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eric J's indicator free Emini journal-7-9-09-trade-1.jpg  
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  #12 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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No trading today

I plan to start the weekend early today . The weather is too nice here to ignore the summer so I'll recap the weeks trades now and go over all my charts over the weekend .

16 trades - + 445 = + 365 after comms.
9 winners
7 losers
av. win $ 70
av. lose $ 26.43
ratio av. win to av. lose 2.63
largest win + $ 120
largest lose - $ 40

What should I do to improve? - nothing ! I'm perfect , just kidding . 1.Identify trades with a high probability of becoming runners and capturing a few gargantuan runners to help improve my av. win to av. loss ratio .
2. Get more screentime .

What have I improved upon ?-
1. No overtrading or revenge trading .
2. Identifying proper support and resistance levels .

One thing I plan to explore before monday is finding a timeframe that I can plot volume effectively on besides minute or second charts . I prefer volume and tick charts because they show me the relation between price and activity not price over time , but havent found an effective way to plot volume on them . What I want to accomplish is to incorporate volume divergence with my setups .

Thats it , have a nice safe weekend all .

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  #13 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
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Longer timeframes for next week


These are what I'm looking at on the NQ for next week in regards to important support and resistance levels . I see price reacting to a confluence level at 1405 - 1412 , seems pretty interesting . Theres no doubt that being cautious around levels such as this is important and being aware they exist is keeping yourself safe .

I posted a setup I have used with a pretty good winning record and offers nice tight stops more often than not . This is the bearish version and works the same in reverse for bullish moves . I need a lower low and lower high with decent volatilty to look for this kind of signal to enter the trend . Two or more bars close above the previous bars high followed immediately by a bar closing below the previous bars low and enter short at the red bars close or 1 tick below the red candles low with a stop limit order .

Attached Thumbnails
eric J's indicator free Emini journal-longer-timeframe-week-7-13-09.jpg   eric J's indicator free Emini journal-longer-timeframe-week-7-13-09-closer-view.jpg   eric J's indicator free Emini journal-bullish-failure-formation.jpg  
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  #14 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Favorite Futures: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
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Preoccupation

This week my trading will be using recorded data . While I work on my trading regime I have a bad habit to indulge in - working . I own and run a wholesale seafood business and some weeks demand my full attention .

Not long ago I was doing the 9 - 5 , clock punching , collar and chain wearing job routine and after 15 years of that I quit my job . I wanted to be a trader and found out quick that you dont just show up there and get a paycheck . I started a small business and studied and practiced trading . The business wound up becoming bigger and bigger despite resisting it but now I enjoy it a lot . Anyway , its trading that I aim to succeed at and will keep finding ways to practice and sharpen my skills while paying the bills .

I'll have time to get down with the data I'm recording and will post my results ASAP .

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  #15 (permalink)
Big game hunter
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My entry and trade management rules

I'm not a big lover of rules in general , in fact I usually do the opposite of what I'm told . This is the stubborn side of me that isnt allowed to participate in any trading activity . The reality based side of me understands why trading rules are not only important but that the rules I impose on myself are designed to protect MY equity , create consistency and help me retain the gains I subject my account to .

My trading rules are one of a very few things that I can control in the market evironment and since I cant cant control what anyone else does or are about to do or not do and I know that many people dont behave in their own best interests then I can gain an advantage by doing all I can to protect my equity and retain any gains I subject my account to .

So , Heres my entry rules and what I expect to do when I have a trade on .

1. Stop loss - all trades have a stop < 2% of my equiy including commissions and a share of expenses like data feed and platform fee . I usually add $2 per trade for expenses and I now pay $5 per contract per trade . I am looking at averaging out my losers and aiming to maintain a < 2% average loser .
2. I trade a 2 lot because I want to scale out some profit to reduce exposure . The 1st lot comes off at = whatever the stop amount is , I.E. - 2 point stop and first target is 2 points . If that is achieved then the 2nd lot is risk free . I then move the stop on the 2nd lot above or below any swing high or low as the trade makes profit . If after into profit I get a bar closing lower than that the last bars low ( CLPL ) in a long I tighten the stop further or take it off right away depending upon where it is in relation to any major support or resistance area , and do the inverse in a short trade .
If however no profit is achieved and price moves sideways or stalls or volume dies or news is 1 minute away and 5 or 6 bars have gone by I try to exit at B.E. or a small profit , in other words if there is reason to believe that I no longer have the odds in my favor I bail out .

Other than those two rules I have specific rules for each type of signal I take and specific rules concerning form , conditions and structure before any signal is acted upon . I'll detail those soon but for now my focus is on making time for screentime as I get past the peak of my business season .

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  #16 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Eric j View Post
My trading rules are one of a very few things that I can control in the market evironment and since I cant cant control what anyone else does or are about to do or not do and I know that many people dont behave in their own best interests then I can gain an advantage by doing all I can to protect my equity and retain any gains I subject my account to .
.

Man that is a beauty of a quote because it really sums up the importance of the rules. You can't control much of anything else and if you can't even follow your own trading rules then just quit now right???? So I applaud you for identifying that rules are a problem and require a lot of additional effort in order to follow them it is very tough for all of us.

I hv found that sometimes trading plans and rules are overly complex and then as a result of this they are unattainable. The pedestal is too high. You have to be careful of this because you can create what I call the loophole effect, where every faulty trade you took can be explained away in your complex set of rules.

Not saying yours are infact yours look nice just some sage advice for anyone else reading.

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  #17 (permalink)
Just starting out...
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Thank you both for your thoughtful commentary.

Two thoughts I have regarding my role as a trader:

"I follow my rules, manage my risk and think in probabilities."

"I may miss a move, but I will not miss my trade."

My intention is to conform to Mr. Einstein's quote:

"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler."

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  #18 (permalink)
Big game hunter
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Do be careful with the rules you follow . Its easy to lock yourself out of good , sound opportunities .

The two simple entry and exit rules I presented here are like the rules of the road for me , designed to protect me and keep me from getting ran over but still allow me to be creative in the way I enter and manage trades .

By making competent , objective decisions about how and when you enter you have already won half the battle . Being able to do that same thing over and over again is the other half , for me anyway .

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  #19 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Favorite Futures: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,397 given, 2,570 received

Results for week of 7 13 09

I ran through my data once and traded along with it as real time .
NQ ##-## 500 vol. shorter timeframe and 2500 vol. longer timeframe .

+ $125 -$170 comms = -$45
34 trades ( 17 x 2 lots )
18 win
16 lose
avg. trade +$3.68
avg. win +$44.17
avg. lose -41.88
ratio of avg. win to avg. lose 1.05

Didnt get killed but did fight the choppy congested uptrend . I'll post screenshots tomorrow .

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  #20 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
Favorite Futures: Currencies
 
Posts: 2,526 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,397 given, 2,570 received


Heres a few of the trades I took last week . The bullish nature made countertrend trading totally unprofitablefor me . Heres the problem - trying to follow a trend is good , when there is one . Trying to find those trends is good but by time they show up on a higher timeframe the moves usually spent or you dont know how much is left on it . The point is that you dont know whats going to happen next so staying objective and finding quality setups at critical structure points is a must - always .

This first chart shows two countertrend sells that had no nice structure , form or volatility . Going against the trend on signals like these will wipe me out quick .

The second chart shows a countertrend trade with better form but turned into a sideways chop / bullish congestion .

The third chart shows a good entry against the trend at support and was played pretty well .

So going against the trend works as well as anything else but without good quality form and picking high probabilty points to trade in such a way is gambling without any edge - the highest risk of all .

And trading against a real congested bias like I saw tues - thurs is foolish , I just have to work harder at recognizing when to just not fool with it or go with the congested flow .

What I have to do a better job with -

1. Cutting short trades with diminished probability .
2. Passing on trades with less than perfect form and structure ( insist on S/R being present )

What have I improved upon -

1.recognizing setups and pinpointing entry points

Have a good weekend all , see ya monday .

Attached Thumbnails
eric J's indicator free Emini journal-7-15-09-trade-1-2.jpg   eric J's indicator free Emini journal-7-15-09-trade-3.jpg   eric J's indicator free Emini journal-7-16-09-trade-2.jpg  
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