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The Land of Vegemite Trading Journal (intraday)

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  #1 (permalink)
 kickmic 
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Hello from Down Under,

Using my live trading, I'll journal the key components of my discretionary trading approach, and my discretionary foibles

The key areas I continue to develop are:
Money Management
Self Awareness and Self Management
Prep
Structure and Bias
Mean reversion
Contraction and Expansion
Retest Failures and Tails
Known v unknown outcomes
Review


ES Oct 8 (I'm in diff time zone, so my charts show Oct 9)

Prep helps prime my mind for which side of the market I'm likely to be trading and to aid money management.
In a downtrending market if price is at the lower Keltner band, I want to be seeing deep pullbacks and some price rejection before entering shorts. The reasons being, the probability of the reward being greater than risk increases substantially, and that aids money management. The same applies to longs.
In a downtrending market if price is at the upper keltner band - this is ideal risk reward wise for taking shorts. The opposite applies to taking longs. However I don't excel at picking reversals early on, so it is seldom I am able to take advantage of these trades with trend. I tend to be fading the market if I'm trading at the extreme of the keltner channels relative to the trade direction.

Note on Keltners
While I'm using Keltner channels based on LBR's settings, the purpose of displaying them on my charts is to help keep in the forefront of my mind the concept of mean reversion. Like a rubber band, as price continues expanding in one direction there is an increase in the opposing force to make prices contract. Speed of moves also plays a role here as does the impact of the non directional computer programs. More to come in subsequent posts.

As per 30M prep chart below, I have a few contextual things to get me going.




I've added a 1000T chart of ES displaying my entries and exits, and then a duplicate of the chart explaining the reasoning behind the trades. I'll follow up shortly on the psychology behind retest fails which will explain why I incorporate them.





I continue to monitor the 30M chart while trading off the shorter time frame chart. It helps me keep focused on the big picture. The snippet below is the 30M chart as it progressed while I was trading. The huge volume as indicated by the width of the bars where factor in my trade management.



Next post I'll relive the poor self management while yesterday trading the SPI

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  #3 (permalink)
 kickmic 
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One of the purposes of market prep prior to trading is to contain my tendency to put on a trade prematurely without having worked through how the trade can be entered in such a way as to keep the risk tight.

I entered the SPI Friday morning with the view that "the market is likely to rise off this level", rather than entering from the viewpoint the outcome is unknown and its just that the setup in this instance happens to be a long, not a short.

I entered long based solely on the 30 minute chart and used a time based stop, cutting the trade for minus 10 points.
I then opened up the 100T chart and started to trade based on the 100 tick action. I was pretty slow to react on two occasions to take profits around the 5192 area, as I've marked in below. Being a bit frustrated with myself I over-traded a tad. The trades below netted minus $30AUD after comms. Had a break as there was news at 11:30.




Post news, entered long using warrants (for scaling reasons) and monitored the position using the TeamViewer's app that allows you to view and operate your PC from your phone. Screen shot from phone below


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 kickmic 
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couple of trades in the SPI this morning

both today and from my first post, a formation I use is when price moves from below a previous low to above the last high in a single swing - looking to trade with this swing on the next pullback
I didnt note in on the chart, however there was also a divergence in the oscillator which prompted me to exit


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 kickmic 
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I'm in Aus, just got up for a trip to the toilet and the office is next to the bathroom, so checked the charts, noticed the ES pulling back - grabbed 8 ticks using concept of post's title


structure:
we are moving off a restest failure at 1864
the 4BetterRenk chart below shows how price got extended away from the mean before rolling over at 1892
you can see previous resistance becoming new support.



However, when you look at when I entered long on the short term 1000 tick chart, at time of entry, downtrend is really obvious, ie known and any reversal is unknown .
I'm just using structure points and mean reversion underpinned by bigger time frame uptrend and trying ti stay 1 step ahead of the crowd.
price at 1882 at time of positing.... right back to bed


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 kickmic 
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from the previous session, just after the "mini flash crash" ref zerohedge Mini Flash Crash After Massive Sell Order Soaks Up All E-Mini Liquidity | Zero Hedge

Traded both sides post the break but only a single contract as the pace isn't something I'm used to trading regularly. FYI, entries and exits shown on chart below.
Meanwhile, the ASX is full steam ahead, having put in a retest fail off yesterday's low and has taken off.


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 kickmic 
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This is pretty incredible info, incorporate in cognitive tools to develop a mental edge


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 kickmic 
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stayed with the pace for a while - but need to sit aside after this stint to catch my breath as its quite intense (for me)

Trades 3 and 4 are fades against a super steep uptrend - that's poor trading. When the action is that quick, I make a few mistakes. Fortunately, I've got quite used to making mistakes It's so easy to review your trading when your buys and sells are there in ink on the chart.




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 kickmic 
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Being in the unknown - holding for a bigger move which requires enduring a pullback and drawdown of your "paper profit" before the move can move again...

Great example yesterday in the SPI
  • Entered after a small contraction phase at 5226
  • held for the expansion and DID NOT exit just prior to previous highs, around 5231/2
  • Sat through pullback which tested the lows of the contraction phase at 5224
  • Exited 5238 on exhaustion (observation of price action) and divergence (see oscillator)

Based on experience, I anticipated a push through the highs. Look at the 30minute chart - structurally price couldn't push down to the previous lows of the range. However it doesn't change the fact that when price had retraced back to my entry, not knowing if price will move higher and accepting you've given up a paper profit to find out creates an uncomfortable feeling in the stomach.

Over time I've practiced recognising the feeling and labeling it for what it is. And to help with the discomfort, I consciously slow my breathing down, and will sometimes also place my hands behind my head. The technique of placing hands behind your head forces you to breath from the belly and not the chest.

I can't stop the feeling but I have learned a cognitive strategy to ensure my decision making does not become impaired by my feelings.




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 wwwingman 
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kickmic View Post
This is pretty incredible info, incorporate in cognitive tools to develop a mental edge


If of interest, Thinking Fast and Slow from Daniel Kahneman talks about the marvels of priming and it is interesting in the more general context of the unconscious/intuitive and conscious/logic brains.

W.

-- The rest is silence
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 kickmic 
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did sweet FA trading yesterday as had some tax stuff to prepare for accountant. However, a pure structure based trade highlights importance of prep and structure

SPI
prep - as marked on 30M chart (purple circle) was calling this pre-corrective. typical number of legs is 3-5, and on SPI had had 3 into previous highs



gap on open, pump fake off previous high - scalped off a quick short and covered just prior to gap close


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 kickmic 
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Just some long stock call options exits today due to other commitments.

Just scalped off 6 ticks in the ES in a trade I otherwise would not have taken if it wasn't for a buy signal in an indicator I've been working on, so may as well post some details about using an indicator to take profits when price has expanded and mean reversion is likely

Looking at price action alone, the entry is "late" to me.
But when the indi kicked up from the smoothed line (which is trending up), I entered and whacked a sell order in where price is well expanded away from the moving averages, while the 20 has expanded away from the 50.




Indicator interpretations
Together with market structure and bias, I'm using the indicator to help with:
staying on right side of trend
exit trends before they reverse (divergence + OB/OS)
take profits when signal line expands away from smoothed line as anticipating mean reversion in direction against trade

a few annotations on a chart to explain


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 twosigma 
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kickmic View Post
Indicator interpretations
Together with market structure and bias, I'm using the indicator to help with:
staying on right side of trend
exit trends before they reverse (divergence + OB/OS)
take profits when signal line expands away from smoothed line as anticipating mean reversion in direction against trade

I'm finding this whole journal interesting and helpful, including the psychology comments. Very down to earth.

The reversions and divergences in the indicator look useful. Any hints about how you calculate the indicator lines? I'd like to play with them. Thanks!

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 kickmic 
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twosigma View Post
I'm finding this whole journal interesting and helpful, including the psychology comments. Very down to earth.

cheers


twosigma View Post
The reversions and divergences in the indicator look useful. Any hints about how you calculate the indicator lines? I'd like to play with them. Thanks!

I've just messed about with things like MACD's and other oscillators changing default settings - nothing special - divergences will show up on a whole host of oscillators and as for mean reversion, expanded prices show up on the MA's I use on the chart which are just a 20 and 50

The point of mentioning my interpretations was to give other traders other ways in which one can interpret MA's and Indicators.

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 kickmic 
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I'm a bit slow Monday mornings... looking at the indicator, not the price action, I shorted into an up trending MA. I flipped the position when I saw the pivot following my short confirmed an inside support zone - but even that entry if I'm honest was reactionary as it was pretty late and therefore increasing risk - the return v reward on that trade was inverted


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 kickmic 
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SPI yesterday

tried for a break of the day highs, then flipped for a short, flipped again for another break of the highs, got stung, and then joined the right side of the market for a short with trapped longs fueling the position



SPI today

looking at 30M (insert) to me looked like a setting up of potential trapped shorts
covered first entry for scratch
re-entered once price rolled over. Didn't cover at first price extension down, held through retracement to break of support and exited when I though there was going to bid a higher low forming. Every now and then I try holding for longer - but usually its best (for me) just to go with the first thrust (if there is an initial thrust). The time it can take for a move to develop I rarely have the patience for.


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 kickmic 
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see previous thread for pre-prep scenario


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 kickmic 
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previous post trade was based on prepmarket prep as per below

was looking for a retest at areas marked below, and then a move to full volatility as only the second leg up post previous corrective phase



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 kickmic 
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SO, from 30M chart below, still bullish bias, as long as 5482 can hold
would want to see short term MA's cycle upwards before initiating longs as the level is quite obvious now having been tested numerous times over last session (including ETH).

I have long index calls purchased yesterday at this level - should this level break, then this position will be covered


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 kickmic 
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AGK.ASX stock trade via options



SPI - still long calls after a sideways day yesterday

prep today - noticed the many rejections off the 200MA using a 200tick - bullish sign? still targeting the highs at 5530 ish



and here's the 30M with my analysis summation


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 kickmic 
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well, exited long calls on index when price penetrated the anchor area. Not knowing in advance if there was further downside I had to cop the loss, and cop watching price reverse back to the highs. I didn't see a reasonable retest pattern to provide a re-entry during RTH.



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  #22 (permalink)
 kickmic 
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plan today as per notes on chart - favouring longs as still in first leg up post a corrective move
3 areas I would consider longs as per arrows on chart
would only short if a get a restest at prev highs and price is well extended from MA's. If price grinds upwards then no shorts. Would need an explosive move that uses up all immediate buying power on sidelines



AUD - not expecting any movement to post employment numbers later this morning... will go get an early dog walk in!!


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 kickmic 
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I am prone to impulse trades from time to time

I have read many of the "causes" behind making impulse trade4s but I don't think I recall reading that they are made on the basis of having a view. For example - "ES is spiking up, I can whack on a scalp here because its likely to keep going"
That statement if acted on in the absence of any other reason is trading on the basis of having a view on the market. Bit of an "ah-ha" moment for me as trading plans don't have a view, they accept the outcome is unknown.

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 kickmic 
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I posted a Youtube clip of Malcolm Gladwell discussing priming, making mention of priming as an effective cognitive trading tool.

I've attached an article by Dr Brett Steenbarger (it's a publicly available download) covering steps on how to incorporate positive priming in your trading

Attached Files
Register to download File Type: doc Priming for Profits.doc (41.5 KB, 13 views)
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 kickmic 
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Too slow yesterday resulting in missing shorts off the morning highs

after a break down of the congestion area, entered short targeting previous days lows. There was a nice retest short setup however I was mindful of getting trapped hence waiting for the break to enter short.
Sellers couldn't push prices down to planned target area. I covered when price stalled and the spread jumped about which is often a sign of a reversal intraday.

Long bias remains after failure of price to move down to test previous days lows


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 kickmic 
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yellow arrows highlight sellers unable to push market lower, followed by what I read as a washout - the lower dip
the washout occurred at a previous support zone (although not a major zone)
After which I entered long (20EMA and indi cycling up) after the first lower high formed (start of green arrow)

Risk was break of recent low, (pink arrow) target was a previous high/100% volatility of previous leg up/about max range of most recent days trading (green arrow)
Was ideally planning to benefit from trapped shorts to propel the trade.

Trade was a loser, onto the next one


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 RADO 
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kickmic are you getting your live ASX data from esignal?

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 kickmic 
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RADO View Post
kickmic are you getting your live ASX data from esignal?

Data via IB, set up market analyzer, added GOM recorder to one of the columns so i record data for asx top 50 in format that enables me to view range/renko charts which filter out noise

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 kickmic 
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long index warrants which move in step with the underlying futures during RTH hrs

early reversal traders caught after China rate reduction news
have entered long on retest fail

have moved higher than previous 4 sessions which I interpret as bullish - so holding for a bigger move and not exiting at obvious 5389 level - do expect some selling here buyers who entered on first push up who are still long are likely to exit at close to BE


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