Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Using my live trading, I'll journal the key components of my discretionary trading approach, and my discretionary foibles
The key areas I continue to develop are: Money Management
Self Awareness and Self Management
Prep
Structure and Bias Mean reversion
Contraction and Expansion
Retest Failures and Tails
Known v unknown outcomes
Review
ES Oct 8 (I'm in diff time zone, so my charts show Oct 9)
Prep helps prime my mind for which side of the market I'm likely to be trading and to aid money management.
In a downtrending market if price is at the lower Keltner band, I want to be seeing deep pullbacks and some price rejection before entering shorts. The reasons being, the probability of the reward being greater than risk increases substantially, and that aids money management. The same applies to longs.
In a downtrending market if price is at the upper keltner band - this is ideal risk reward wise for taking shorts. The opposite applies to taking longs. However I don't excel at picking reversals early on, so it is seldom I am able to take advantage of these trades with trend. I tend to be fading the market if I'm trading at the extreme of the keltner channels relative to the trade direction.
Note on Keltners
While I'm using Keltner channels based on LBR's settings, the purpose of displaying them on my charts is to help keep in the forefront of my mind the concept of mean reversion. Like a rubber band, as price continues expanding in one direction there is an increase in the opposing force to make prices contract. Speed of moves also plays a role here as does the impact of the non directional computer programs. More to come in subsequent posts.
As per 30M prep chart below, I have a few contextual things to get me going.
I've added a 1000T chart of ES displaying my entries and exits, and then a duplicate of the chart explaining the reasoning behind the trades. I'll follow up shortly on the psychology behind retest fails which will explain why I incorporate them.
I continue to monitor the 30M chart while trading off the shorter time frame chart. It helps me keep focused on the big picture. The snippet below is the 30M chart as it progressed while I was trading. The huge volume as indicated by the width of the bars where factor in my trade management.
Next post I'll relive the poor self management while yesterday trading the SPI
One of the purposes of market prep prior to trading is to contain my tendency to put on a trade prematurely without having worked through how the trade can be entered in such a way as to keep the risk tight.
I entered the SPI Friday morning with the view that "the market is likely to rise off this level", rather than entering from the viewpoint the outcome is unknown and its just that the setup in this instance happens to be a long, not a short.
I entered long based solely on the 30 minute chart and used a time based stop, cutting the trade for minus 10 points.
I then opened up the 100T chart and started to trade based on the 100 tick action. I was pretty slow to react on two occasions to take profits around the 5192 area, as I've marked in below. Being a bit frustrated with myself I over-traded a tad. The trades below netted minus $30AUD after comms. Had a break as there was news at 11:30.
Post news, entered long using warrants (for scaling reasons) and monitored the position using the TeamViewer's app that allows you to view and operate your PC from your phone. Screen shot from phone below
both today and from my first post, a formation I use is when price moves from below a previous low to above the last high in a single swing - looking to trade with this swing on the next pullback
I didnt note in on the chart, however there was also a divergence in the oscillator which prompted me to exit
I'm in Aus, just got up for a trip to the toilet and the office is next to the bathroom, so checked the charts, noticed the ES pulling back - grabbed 8 ticks using concept of post's title
structure:
we are moving off a restest failure at 1864
the 4BetterRenk chart below shows how price got extended away from the mean before rolling over at 1892
you can see previous resistance becoming new support.
However, when you look at when I entered long on the short term 1000 tick chart, at time of entry, downtrend is really obvious, ie known and any reversal is unknown .
I'm just using structure points and mean reversion underpinned by bigger time frame uptrend and trying ti stay 1 step ahead of the crowd.
price at 1882 at time of positing.... right back to bed
Traded both sides post the break but only a single contract as the pace isn't something I'm used to trading regularly. FYI, entries and exits shown on chart below.
Meanwhile, the ASX is full steam ahead, having put in a retest fail off yesterday's low and has taken off.
stayed with the pace for a while - but need to sit aside after this stint to catch my breath as its quite intense (for me)
Trades 3 and 4 are fades against a super steep uptrend - that's poor trading. When the action is that quick, I make a few mistakes. Fortunately, I've got quite used to making mistakes It's so easy to review your trading when your buys and sells are there in ink on the chart.
Being in the unknown - holding for a bigger move which requires enduring a pullback and drawdown of your "paper profit" before the move can move again...
Great example yesterday in the SPI
Entered after a small contraction phase at 5226
held for the expansion and DID NOT exit just prior to previous highs, around 5231/2
Sat through pullback which tested the lows of the contraction phase at 5224
Based on experience, I anticipated a push through the highs. Look at the 30minute chart - structurally price couldn't push down to the previous lows of the range. However it doesn't change the fact that when price had retraced back to my entry, not knowing if price will move higher and accepting you've given up a paper profit to find out creates an uncomfortable feeling in the stomach.
Over time I've practiced recognising the feeling and labeling it for what it is. And to help with the discomfort, I consciously slow my breathing down, and will sometimes also place my hands behind my head. The technique of placing hands behind your head forces you to breath from the belly and not the chest.
I can't stop the feeling but I have learned a cognitive strategy to ensure my decision making does not become impaired by my feelings.
If of interest, Thinking Fast and Slow from Daniel Kahneman talks about the marvels of priming and it is interesting in the more general context of the unconscious/intuitive and conscious/logic brains.
