History of the Peloponnesian War - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


History of the Peloponnesian War
Updated: Views / Replies:1,117 / 21
Created: by Spartan Attachments:0

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

History of the Peloponnesian War

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TBD
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 40 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

B C 18,000 Q 2,000 P 2620.00 % 14.6% BBRY 10.31 V 9.00 SL 9.50 @ 6%
B C 5,000 Q 330 P 3.30 % 0.1% EWM 15.16 V 15.15
B C 19,208 Q 180 P 786.60 % 4.1% IWM 111.00 V 106.63
B C 96,250 Q 1 P 1025.00 % 1.1% ES12-14 1945.50 V 1925.00 SL 1771.00 @ -8%
Total 138,458 Total P/L 4,435
Cash 47,792
Net Liq 52,227

ES Initial margin 5,060
ES Maintenance margin 4,600
Excess equity 47,167
Notional value of ES 96,250
Max loss 138,458
Account size 100,000
Leverage ratio 1.38

From 10 October 2014
To 24 October 2014
Days 14

Performance 4.4%
Benchmark ES 1.1%
10 year yield (annual) 2.3%
10 year yield (period) 0.1%
Market risk premium 1.0%
Alpha 3.4%

Drawdown too large?
Care with composition. Investing globally. Benchmarking using US market.


Refs:

ES12-14 1946
NQ12-14 399.25
TF12-14 1113.1
ZN12-14 127'000
QM11-14 82.6
VIX 16.53
USDJPY 108.157
EURUSD 1.26490 Tepper thinks going lower
XAUUSD 1230.94

NYC Ebola case. Doctor self quarantined but still resets 21 day incubation clock.

Apple too late not enough margin of safety.


Last edited by Spartan; October 23rd, 2014 at 09:57 PM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #12 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TBD
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 40 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

Guaranteed delivery uses listeners in low latency environments to confirm data is true and accurate on receipt. Idea: program fast peer-to-peer cross check of data. Napster for traders. Challenge would be to find sufficient bandwidth to run the cross check live.

There appear to be points in pricing data streams, even from exchanges, when the indicated price does not reflect the price at which trades are actually taking place. Some data streams specifically mark when this happens. Is this is a price arbitrage opportunity? Would need to be co located and able to execute direct into the exchange.

Reply With Quote
 
  #13 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TBD
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 40 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received


B C 18,000 Q 2,000 P 2540.00 % 14.1% BBRY 10.27 V 9.00 SL 9.50 @ 6%
Total 18,000 Open P/L 2,540

S C 5,000 Q 330 P -62.70 % -1.3% EWM 14.96 V 15.15
S C 19,208 Q 180 P 1803.60 % 9.4% IWM 116.65 V 106.63
S C 96,250 Q 1 P 5300.00 % 5.5% ES12-14 2031.00 V 1925.00 SL 1771.00 @ -8%
Closed P/L 7,041

From 10 October 2014
To 07 November 2014
Days 28

Performance 7.0%
Benchmark ES 5.5%
10 year yield (annual) 2.3928%
10 year yield (period) 0.2%
Market risk premium 5.3%
Alpha 1.7%

Refs:

ES12-14 2031.25
NQ12-14 4173
TF12-14 1175
ZN12-14 126.005
QM12-14 77.55
VIX 13.67
USDJPY 115.439
EURUSD 123737
XAUUSD 1134

Reply With Quote
 
  #14 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TBD
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 40 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

S C 18,000 Q 2,000 P 4800.00 % 26.7% BBRY 11.40 V 9.00 SL 9.50 @ 6%
S C 5,000 Q 330 P -62.70 % -1.3% EWM 14.96 V 15.15
S C 19,208 Q 180 P 1803.60 % 9.4% IWM 116.65 V 106.63
S C 96,250 Q 1 P 5300.00 % 5.5% ES12-14 2031.00 V 1925.00 SL 1771.00 @ -8%
Closed P/L 11,841

From 10 October 2014
To 12 November 2014
Days 33

Performance 11.8%
Benchmark ES 5.8%
10 year yield (annual) 2.3928%
10 year yield (period) 0.2%
Market risk premium 5.6%
Alpha 6.2%

Refs:

ES12-14 2037
NQ12-14 4195
TF12-14 1185.3
ZN12-14 126.09
QM12-14 76.875
VIX 12.92
USDJPY 115.598
EURUSD 1.24329
XAUUSD 1153.87

Valuation multiples way topside extended. Consider short?

Reply With Quote
 
  #15 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TBD
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 40 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

Considered short of ES at 2037.00. Did not execute. Futures back below 2000 at 1996.75. Market swings above and below what intrinsic factors imply.

Once analysis done can be very idle with time as a value investor. Need other things to do

Not necessarily about exiting at value. Think about letting it swing.

Oil

2004-2014 oil price falls generally lead to ES gains one month later except during financial crisis. Size of current move is a concern.

Move up in oil volatility plus declining prices traditionally suggests demand side worry. However, declining prices follows OPEC inaction and strong US production which is more of a supply side factor. Deflationary. Will Fed comment on this?

US rigs moving to idle. Capex delayed.

Smart and value investors Blackstone and Berkshire getting active in downstream. Oaktree active in energy high yield.

Probably creates M&A consolidation opportunity upstream - diversifies risks, greater production flexibility to price swings in future.

Watch RBOB for transmission to consumer.

Conclusion

US fundamentals firm - unemployment, retail sales, housing, productivity. Marginal expectation misses on Europe and Asia data but not wide misses. Implies sell off overdone?

US spending bill passed at weekend.

Net net oil is a tailwind.

Earnings been positive and guidance broadly confident since November.

Go shopping Monday.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Spartan for this post:
 
  #16 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TBD
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 40 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

B ES03-15 2000.00

Reply With Quote
 
  #17 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TBD
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 40 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

B Z03-15 6421.00

Now leveraged into market. Rationale for leverage:

Yellen said: rate hike in a "couple of meetings." Journalist asked what is a couple? "A couple means at least two." Unusually this is delivering interest rate certainty till mid 2015.

Speculation is:

Post Fed day ES 03-15 ended in 2060 area. ES 03-15 now at 2038.00. Low volume trading past few days seems to have pushed market away from where higher volume agreed on a price.

USD is getting expensive versus GBP.

UK solid domestic job growth and inflation continues so UK continues active monetary policy.

Risks:

UK is heading to a general election. Weakens GBP?

No Greek exit of Euro. Why vote to go to a sovereign currency which (i) depreciates own assets further (ii) destroys country credit?

Need to run leverage calculations and set exit at break even allowing for currency volatility.


Last edited by Spartan; January 5th, 2015 at 10:37 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Spartan for this post:
 
  #18 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TBD
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 40 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

The Bad Zulu Trade

Portfolio size $111,841. Of which $100,000 was initial capital.

MAE of Z trade with Z going down to 6426.50 = $5,428 on a constant currency basis. Of which $70 was mitigated by a depreciating GBP.

Plus:

MAE of ES trade with ES going down to 1983.75 = $812.50.

Total MAE $6241.

Bad

- Need to define (i) risk parameters, (ii) anticipate downside impact of an adverse move and (iii) comply with parameters.
- The MAE represented 5.5% of portfolio size.
- The currency impact -- continued weakness in the GBP (decline 1.3% during trade) was a drag on profit.
- There were better ideas that you were prevented from executing because of the MAE on this trade.

Good

- Idea was good. Probably right longer term macro and will play well over few weeks. The Fed needs to guide on the USD.
- The currency impact -- reduced mark to market losses but could have made things worse.

Observations

For personal investment break even against initial capital is acceptable a few months in. As you move to profit need to move to define MAE. Set at 5% going forward.

Debate

Having made a more bad than good trade that is now profitable let it run? Decision = no. Want to get back to operating within risk parameters. Plus computing margins and currency conversions are a pain.

S Z03-15 6421.00 @ GBP/USD = 1.52918

Closed P/L 11,841 + 1,192 (outside risk parameters).

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Spartan for this post:
 
  #19 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TBD
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 40 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

Source: Bloomberg - 4 January 2015

2014 top performances

1. Pershing Square / Bill Ackman @ 32.8% return.
2. Quantedge 32.3%
2. STS / Michael Craig-Shenkman and Scott Burg @ 32.8% return.

"Hedge funds as a group had a horrendous 2014, with an average return of just 1.6 percent through October among the 2,400 funds that make up the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Hedge Fund Index."

As proxy for S&P 500 index performance:
ES @ 31 October 13 1751.00
ES @ 31 October 14 2011.50
+14.9%

Only 16 of 2,400 funds in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Hedge Fund Index beat the index net of fees.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Spartan for this post:
 
  #20 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TBD
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 40 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

Notes on USD


Over 6 months the USD has appreciated significantly both:

US Dollar Majors Index = 10,410 @ 30 June 2014
US Dollar Majors Index = 11,679 @ 9 January 2015
12.2%

Source: FXCM.

And also:

US Dollar Trade Weighted Index = 75.91 @ 30 June 2014
US Dollar Trade Weighted Index = 85.82 @ 9 January 2015
13.1%

Source: YCharts

US Exports of Goods and Services as % of GDP = 13%.
Primary trade partners for exports = Canada (17% of total), Mexico (13%), EU (10%), China (pegged FX 6%), Japan (4%).

Source: World Bank 2013 Data

US Imports of Goods and Services as % of GDP = 17%.
Primary trade partners for imports = China (16% of total), Canada (12%), Mexico (10%), EU (10%), Japan (5%).

Source: World Bank 2013 Data

Since the middle of last year US exports got 13.1% more expensive and imports got 13.1% cheaper.

The US runs a trade deficit so is a net importer. International trade often uses USD as basis and is settled in USD.

Imports: the strength of the USD can help lower costs and enhance earnings in the short term. Note China (16% of total) is pegged FX so effect muted slightly.

Exports: exporters can absorb some of this by discounting short term. However, strength of the USD is making USD exports representing 13% of GDP, less competitive.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Spartan for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > History of the Peloponnesian War

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
The History of Bitcoin Big Mike Cryptocurrency Trading 0 December 14th, 2013 10:32 PM
Mathematician who changed the history. HedgeFundAleksan News and Current Events 1 October 12th, 2013 12:01 PM
First day in history Davidoff EasyLanguage Programming 1 February 17th, 2013 05:14 PM
Christmas tree history kbit Jokes 0 December 15th, 2011 07:43 PM
using History on NT Indicator siscop NinjaTrader Programming 3 November 15th, 2009 06:13 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:49 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-16 in 0.18 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.160.245.121