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ES Scalping System - 1 Point at a Time


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ES Scalping System - 1 Point at a Time

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 Traderwolf 
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Decided after much debate to start a journal... I have been SIM trading my latest version of this trade plan.

The purpose if this journal is several fold:

1. Document development of this trade plan
2. Demonstrate viability of a 1 point Target ES trade plan as a profitable strategy
3. Identify tools and methods needed to make this plan successful
4. Obtain feedback from the community on improvements needed for this plan.

I know many have debated the viability of scalping and I have been one of those people at times. I fully recognize that this is a difficult endeavor and a win rate of approximate 70% will be needed to be successful.

The basis of this trading plan will be PATS learnings from Mack with some additional twists provided by @welly192. Thanks to both of those guys for their fine work.

I look at this journal as a chance to get a better grip on my trade plan by having to explain it to others. I also look at it as an opportunity to improve this plan though input from others. Even if I end up abandoning this method, I will know more about trading as a whole when I come out the other end. I know I have picked up many things from the thread from @welly192 and I am grateful for that.

I will be sharing charts and putting together videos as time permits.

Thanks in advance for all of your contributions.

More details on method coming in future posts.

Wolf

PS.. I will not be trading this method with anything but SIM bucks until I have a firm method in hand.. so just keeping it real.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Traderwolf View Post
Decided after much debate to start a journal... I have been SIM trading my latest version of this trade plan.

The purpose if this journal is several fold:

1. Document development of this trade plan
2. Demonstrate viability of a 1 point Target ES trade plan as a profitable strategy
3. Identify tools and methods needed to make this plan successful
4. Obtain feedback from the community on improvements needed for this plan.

I know many have debated the viability of scalping and I have been one of those people at times. I fully recognize that this is a difficult endeavor and a win rate of approximate 70% will be needed to be successful.

The basis of this trading plan will be PATS learnings from Mack with some additional twists provided by @welly192. Thanks to both of those guys for their fine work.

I look at this journal as a chance to get a better grip on my trade plan by having to explain it to others. I also look at it as an opportunity to improve this plan though input from others. Even if I end up abandoning this method, I will know more about trading as a whole when I come out the other end. I know I have picked up many things from the thread from @welly192 and I am grateful for that.

I will be sharing charts and putting together videos as time permits.

Thanks in advance for all of your contributions.

More details on method coming in future posts.

Wolf

PS.. I will not be trading this method with anything but SIM bucks until I have a firm method in hand.. so just keeping it real.


Good luck on your journey. I know you've been doing this awhile....hopefully this will help you really turn the corner. I'm not a fan of 4 tick scalping but if you have iron discipline, you can make it work.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 bobwest 
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Will be reading it. Looking forward to it.

Bob.

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 Daytrader999 
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Good luck and count me in, I'm looking forward to your new journal as well...

"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
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 Traderwolf 
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I will try to have a few posts up front with some summary thoughts for ease of reading. AS for me, I been at this gig for more years that I care to recall.. Never been consistently profitable but have stayed the course.. I have never looked at what I call micro scalping until 2014. I saw @welly192 doing very well at it and saw some other traders with other methods outside of BM doing very well trading ES, CL, and 6E 4 ticks at a time. So part of the purpose of this is to thoroughly evaluate this type of trading so as to see if it is fit for me.. Time will tell.

Method will rely on base teachings of Mack from PATS. It is fairly important to grasp some of those concepts to be able to do this. If you haven’t tackled his course or looked at a lot of his videos, it may help you to do so before proceeding. I will not cover all that is in his course.

Key Method Ideas
• Identify Key Reference Areas(KRA) before market opens
• Be able to Identify Context of Market as market moves during day(using TL’s and S/R)
• Based on Market Context, identify location and structure of trades
• Strong focus on setups will be on with trend trading, second entries and traps
• Trade 1 contract initially with 4 tick target on all trades
• Stops will vary based on structure at trade location and volatility, but goal is to have a stop of 4T

So a great question is why not have runners? Why not trade multiple contracts? For this method to stand a chance of being profitable, I will need a win rate of about 60-70% estimated. So the focus of the first part of this journey is to develop the methods needed to get a high win rate. If it is profitable with 1 contract and no runners, adding contracts and runners is only gravy. If 70% win rate cannot be achieved, then I will need to question viability of method or myself to manage the trade plan.

So for starters..
1 contract per trade
Goal is 5 points per day.

More details coming in future posts.

Wolf

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 Itchymoku 
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 Anna K 
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Following. Looking forward to your progress!

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 Anna K 
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Traderwolf
• Trade 1 contract initially with 4 tick target on all trades
• Stops will vary based on structure at trade location and volatility, but goal is to have a stop of 4T
Wolf

Do you have a max stop? IMHO, with a firm 4 tick target it doesn't make much sense to to have a bigger then 5T stop, otherwise you need even higher winning %. If the trade requires a bigger stop, it's better to pass on it.

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 Traderwolf 
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Anna K View Post
Do you have a max stop? IMHO, with a firm 4 tick target it doesn't make much sense to to have a bigger then 5T stop, otherwise you need even higher winning %. If the trade requires a bigger stop, it's better to pass on it.

Start with 6T..(I used to use 8T) Never ever want it to hit.. Max I want to take is 4T. Passing on trades where stops bigger is very good idea.. So yes that is an option.

We will be discussing some additional ideas like placing limit orders to reduce stop size(like Mack does very often) as well as very active trade management. It is my belief that a scratch or small loss is crucial to have this type of trading work . Taking 8T or 6T losses with 4T targets does not work and that is why so many are against this.. But there are some options will discuss together.. Stay tuned.

BTW.. my main chart is 1800T based on your thread. I looked at it and liked the way it behaved vs 2000T so stuck with it.. Thanks for sharing.


Wolf

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 AlexB 
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Traderwolf View Post
We will be discussing some additional ideas like placing limit orders to reduce stop size(like Mack does very often) as well as very active trade management. It is my belief that a scratch or small loss is crucial to have this type of trading work . Taking 8T or 6T losses with 4T targets does not work and that is why so many are against this.. But there are some options will discuss together.. Stay tuned.

Wolf

So you will be moving stops to breakeven pretty fast? This is all very interesting and I am looking forward to reading your journal.

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 Anna K 
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Thanks for giving me the credit, but I use 1600T chart, not 1800, but I'm sure either one works. You just need to find the one that you like and stick with it.

As for stops, I see your point. Personally, I use max 5T stop and it seems to work for me, at lest during normal volatility. The reason why I like a fix stop is because it's automatically placed when I place the trade, so I don't have to make yet another decision every time I take a trade. It's just a simplicity thing really that helps in decision fatigue. But I often move it, but only to make it less, never more.

And yes, it's better to have a scratch or small loss trades. For example, today I had only 1 full stop, out of 17 trades. But moving the stop too close or too soon, could be a dangerous thing, I've often cut good trades too soon because of that. So now I try not to move my stop too much. I think moving a stop is more of an art then science.

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 Traderwolf 
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Here is a list of charts I use. Video to be added later looking at these. I use Sierra Charts as Trading platform.

HTF Charts(Viewed Premarket mainly)
Daily candlestick chart for pit session
VP for pit session by day for last 60 days
120 min candlestick(optional)
60 min(optional)

Main Trading Chart
1800T candlestick
DOM with VP and 10 levels

Supporting Charts
900T candlestick with Zig Zag volume (Thanks to @John32)
Numbers bar with cumulative delta by bar


Wolf

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Register to download File Type: mp4 Chart Summary.mp4 (10.83 MB, 227 views)
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 Traderwolf 
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AlexB View Post
So you will be moving stops to breakeven pretty fast? This is all very interesting and I am looking forward to reading your journal.

Oh no.... not at all.. Trade needs to have some time and space to work.. Moving too fast will be detrimental to your results. I start usually with a 6T stop (with current volatility)and try to get it to 4T as soon as I get some breathing room).

We will focus initially on market context and entry. If we cannot get those right, we are taking tons of heat all of the time. When that happens.. bad things normally happen to all of us. So the focus will be on context, trade location, and structure first.

Additionally, we may have different expectations on different types of trades. For example, we may give a pullback entry more space and time that a pure reversal from a specific level. To be discussed later.

Wolf

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 trendisyourfriend 
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Traderwolf View Post

Here is a list of charts I use. ...
Wolf

Just finished viewing your video. Good and clear presentation. My first impression is that you are using too much information or variables for capturing only 4 ticks. I would try to use no more than two charts maybe a 30 minute chart with your 1800 tick chart. Or a 5 minute chart along with your 1800 tick chart to get a different perspective.

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 Traderwolf 
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At the core of what is trying to be accomplished here, it is very very simple. So simple, that most of us already know this. But I lose sight of this all of the time even though this is the foundation of the trading plan.

Market Context
It is imperative to be able to determine if the market is trending or in a trading range. If I cannot do this effectively and consistently, game over. On the wrong side of the market means mostly losers. The core of this methodology is being able to draw TL's for a trending market and identify Horizontal support(S) and resistance(R) lines in real time. If market is trending up, I want to recognize that so I can buy. Is market is in a trading range, I generally want to recognize that so I can fade the extremes. I call all of this activity determining market context. VERY IMPORTANT and often overlooked in its importance.

Trending Market
If we determine we are in a trending market, our job is fairly simple. We wait for an impulse up(for a long trade), and we buy in a determined location during the pullback. So we are buying while the market is going down. We will determine location of buying based on factors including bar size and structure, location versus other key items like TL's and ema, , size and speed of retracement, and volume of retracement. We will be stalking the retracement looking at possible first and second entries. Our desire is to buy as low as is possible, but we will initiate a trade when we get the structure and location to support a trade with proper risk. Goal is simple: buy low – sell higher. We generally will not be trading counter trend if for no other reason to keep us focused on one contextual direction at a time. I tend to get overwhelmed when I am looking long and short all of the time. So my simple brain needs to look only at one direction at a time.

Range Market
If we determine the market is a range market, we simply trade the extremes We wait on a structure to determine a reversal and we play a reversal from the extremes. We do not trade BO’s from a trading range. We either trade the BOPB or wait until the next trend or trading range is established.

Summary
So we will buy/sell pullbacks to structural levels in a trend and buy/sell the extremes in a trading range. Sounds simple and at its core it is very simple.

What we will focus most of our time on is 2 things:

1. How to get context right 90% of the time. It is imperative.
2. Defining guidelines in a trending environment or trading range WHEN NOT TO TRADE. Defining WHEN NOT TO TAKE A TRADE WILL BE OUR MOST IMPORTANT TASK. Some call these filters, some call these rules, some call this experience. An example of this would be when not to take first entries. We need to know that very very well. I give Linda Rashcke credit for this idea. She says the most important thing to look at is the failed trades and not the winning trades. The failed trades provide what we need to learn about and from. We will need to be all over learning from the failures and looking for repeated failed patterns.

Peace,
Wolf

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 Traderwolf 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Just finished viewing your video. Good and clear presentation. My first impression is that you are using too much information or variables for capturing only 4 ticks. I would try to use no more than two charts maybe a 30 minute chart with your 1800 tick chart. Or a 5 minute chart along with your 1800 tick chart to get a different perspective.

Good point. I don't use the daily or VP or hourly during trading hours since the levels are superimposed automatically by Sierra Charts. THose 3 charts are really not necessary at all but are part of my pre trade routine as well as looking at news , etc. I do use 1800T 90% of time and 900T for entries. There are some things on 900T chart that I feel are important and needed at present. So 2 charts is where I spend most of my time.

Thanks for the feedback.

Wolf

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 jackbravo 
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thanks for posting up that information. in to follow.

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 Traderwolf 
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Volatility requiring me to take mostly limit entry orders to get a reasonable stop. Hard for me to stay focused for more than a couple of hours.. Really tired..

7 Trades...
5 W
1L
1BE

Last trade of the day missed the fact that the measured move was complete until after the trade was taken. Not paying attention fully and assumed with the strength of the leg down we would have at least a retest of the LOD... After that lapse of judgement, decided to call it a day. Am tired anyhow.

Decided to go with HLC bars today.. I have been looking at them for a long time. I find I get too excited trading candlestick bars and really only looking at levels and bar size and number of pullbacks.. Going to see how this goes this week... but so far I think I like better. TL's also easier to draw.

Later,
Wolf

Disclaimer.. I am color blind and that is why I need to use mostly B&W charts.. some of the color combinations with most people's charts I cannot see the contrast properly.. so just plain charts is what I have.

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 bobwest 
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Traderwolf View Post
Disclaimer.. I am color blind and that is why I need to use mostly B&W charts.. some of the color combinations with most people's charts I cannot see the contrast properly.. so just plain charts is what I have.

Me too, LOL.

Ticks me off when people use red and green, for instance.... And some shades of both I am fine with, others I can't tell apart. (Traffic lights I am fine with....)

Sometimes people will ask, "What colors do you see?" My answer is usually something like "All of them." For me, that is.

Color perception is very individualized, not universal and "objective," which is not always easy to understand....

Bob.

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 Traderwolf 
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Thought I would do a short video describing what the setup Change of Behavior Pull Back (COBPB)looks like. THis is very similar to some of PATS BOPB setups with a slight twist using wave size and volume.

Wolf

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 Windim 
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It is great, Jeff, that you take this new journey.....great start and explanation from the first page....hope we all will benefit by your participation...
will join after my holidays

regards,
Dmitri

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 bd92154 
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Traderwolf View Post
Thought I would do a short video describing what the setup Change of Behavior Pull Back (COBPB)looks like. THis is very similar to some of PATS BOPB setups with a slight twist using wave size and volume.

Wolf

Thank you so much for taking the time to do a video as they can take a bit of time to produce. It would be nice if we could put double likes on your contest journal entry.

Have a great day and thanks again for the video.

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 Traderwolf 
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10 trades...

7W
3L


Chart attached.
Wolf


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 Anna K 
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Hi, I think I took the same 2 first trades as you did. What what the reason for your #2 trade? I think we both got stopped out on it, so I'm just trying to understand the reasoning behind it.

thanks.

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 Traderwolf 
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Anna K View Post
Hi, I think I took the same 2 first trades as you did. What what the reason for your #2 trade? I think we both got stopped out on it, so I'm just trying to understand the reasoning behind it.

thanks.


That was a BOPB from the BO level in combo with an 2ES. I felt like those 2 factors justified taking the trade. ON the negative side, PA had not broken the CT TL yet, but I felt like odds were in my favor.. I would take it again.. Anytime I get 2 factors strong as second entry and BOPB.. I am all in.........As you know some trades just fail.

Hope this helps.

Wolf

PS.. My abbreviations are listed in the second or so post in this thread.

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 Anna K 
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thanks, for your 2ES set ups, does the price have to trade 1 tick below the signal candle? tx.

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 Traderwolf 
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Anna K View Post
thanks, for your 2ES set ups, does the price have to trade 1 tick below the signal candle? tx.


It depends.. I will not take a stop any larger than 6T.. so if signal bar is generally 5T or less, I will go with a pivot break. So with the trade you have referenced, I went with the bar break or pivot break..

If the signal bar is larger than 5T or the signal bar is a CT bar, I have 3 options;
1. Pass
2. Drop a limit order 1-2T behind signal bar after bar break
3. Look for an entry on my 900T chart that will give me a smaller stop

On second entries(which I should rarely pass on), I will typically go with a limit order if signal bar is greater than 5T.

I did not code the trades on my chart today.. but I would have coded that trade 2ES-P.. Which means Second Entry Short with a Pivot entry.

Hope this helps.

Wolf

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 Traderwolf 
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Done about 1030... Rough day for my trading plan.. Plan based on pullbacks in a trend and the legs were fast and sharp with few pullbacks.. Bars so large that 6T not survivable on stops anyhow without a pullback which rarely happened. Caught myself a couple of times trying to chase a move and I was on the mic(personal recording) and stopped myself 2 or 3 times.. Finally recognized I need to stop trading or the hole I dig could be huge.

Only took 2 trades before calling it a day.

2 W
0L

Also learned HLC charts could not give me what I needed.. Missed a couple of big reversal bars because I did not see the close tab until later.. Converted back to candlestick charts. That test is complete.

Wolf

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 Anna K 
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Caught myself a couple of times trying to chase a move and I was on the mic(personal recording) and stopped myself 2 or 3 times.. Finally recognized I need to stop trading or the hole I dig could be huge.

Wolf, great job on catching yourself in the act! Do you record yourself all the time?

thanks.

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 Traderwolf 
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Part of the reason I am doing this journal is to try to objectively evaluate this style of trading( I call it micro scalping) since I have never traded like this before.

Today is the first day I really have had where I question how well it will perform in certain market conditions..

Today we had high volatility, quick moves, and straight line legs with few pullbacks. In order to keep my risk as close to 1:1 as I can , I refuse to start with any risk of greater than 6T when looking for a 4T target. I really need a 4T or so stop and most of the time I have been able to do that. Today there just were not many valid setups where I could get a 6T or less stop and take a trade.. So I sat there and watch most of the action go without me which was very frustrating.

This method has worked very well in lower volatility periods and periods of tight range bound trading, but has some real limitations(for me anyhow) in these kind of markets with higher volatility. I am just not going to take a trade with a 1:2 R:R.. Been there.. done that.. The math kills me..

An obvious solution to this is to accept the larger stops and accept the larger targets that go with it to insure I have at least a 1:1... It looks like looking for 4T target in a trade and then backing into my stop is ass backwards. Maybe I need to accept the risk that the market is providing based on the volatility and then adjust the target accordingly for each of my setups assuming they make sense with all trades having at least a 1:1 R:R. This means today I would have had many more trades with targets larger than 6T most of the time and stops greater than 6T most of the time. THere goes the title of this journal.. 1 point at a time.. Already shedding that idea...

Just documenting some of my thoughts and thinking out loud.

Wolf

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 Traderwolf 
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Anna K View Post
Wolf, great job on catching yourself in the act! Do you record yourself all the time?

thanks.


I have done it sporadically in the past and decided to do it this week since I am trying to evaluate this method and myself.. A big part of recording myself is so I can articulate to myself what is going on with the market. If I cannot articulate it, I probably do not understand it and should not trade.. I had a mentor once that said I should do this daily like I was teaching a class.

Today I knew clearly what was going on with the market and felt the urge to chase.. put on the trade a couple of times behind the market and then pulled it when I said to myself "out of plan trade", which is the kiss of death for me. Immediately quit trading.


Hope this helps.

Wolf

PS.. I may share part of one of my recordings later in my journey for forum amusement..

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 Anna K 
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Thanks for your reply,it would be great if you can post some of those recordings

Just something to think about, today was a highly unusual day by my standards, you seem to be doing great on other days, so I wouldn't throw away your strategy because of one day that is very rare.

And even today, there were opportunities Of 1:1 r:r. I think the problem today was that it's very hard psychologically to sit there and look for one point trades while Market is running many points back-and-forth. It's the FOMO, perhaps?

And if volatility increases, you can try to increase both, risk and reward, from one point to let's say one and half points. I just find it difficult to do.

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 Traderwolf 
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Anna K View Post
And if volatility increases, you can try to increase both, risk and reward, from one point to let's say one and half points. I just find it difficult to do.


I may change my mind by tomorrow... but as I am trading this methodology, something just not sitting well with me about trading a less than 1:1 method.. And with a 4T-6T stop on many days.. trades get harder to find...So think I am going to make some further adjustments to incorporate that into my strategy.. Right now on larger that normal stops, I have the following options:

1. Pass on trade
2. Buy/Sell with a limit order that makes my R:R acceptable
3. Use a lower time frame to get a better R;R

Passing on trades just means I do not trade and I am not in this to be a market watcher.. No trade.. no exposure and chance to make $$. I have been primarily been using option 2 but days like today even it does not work well.

Going to add another option that will allow me to take trades with larger stops and targets where minimum R:R is 1. Just look at Mack's video for today. Many (if not most) of his trades had to have large stops (by my standards) when entered and therefore larger targets.

I fully anticipate more BE trades doing this since I will not let a 5T winner that I am shooting for 6T turn into a loser.

We will see how it goes.

Wolf

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 Traderwolf 
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Took a couple of pre market trades today on video..

Wolf

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 Traderwolf 
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12 Trades
3 L
1 BE
8W

Mismanaged several of the trades on entry and exit. Took an out of plan trade immediately after first loser as a revenge trade . IT was luckily a winner, but this has been my worst problem.. Taking a revenge trade immediately after a loser to get back my loss. Missed a trade later in the day and called it quits.

About all I can do with this style of trading is 2-2.5 hours due to concentration needed. After that, start getting fairly careless.


Wolf

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 Anna K 
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Took an out of plan trade immediately after first loser as a revenge trade . IT was luckily a winner, but this has been my worst problem.. Taking a revenge trade immediately after a loser to get back my loss.
Wolf

That's my problem as well. I'm trying to figure out how to handle it. One idea I have is to walk away from the screen after a losing trade. I'm going to try that.

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Since out of system trades are random, you should identify the criteria that you are using to justify the trade, and test it either back or forward. The negative expectancy should present itself quickly and discourage you from that habit when you acknowledge the fact that it is not a winning behavior. Generate proof and put it in front of you as a reminder. I have done that so many times that now after a losing trade, if my strict entry criteria is not met, I just wait it out for my next setup. I have found that the more defined the methodology and setup, the easier it is to wait for the next one after a losing trade.

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 tradersam 
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That's my problem as well. I'm trying to figure out how to handle it. One idea I have is to walk away from the screen after a losing trade. I'm going to try that.

https://thepatternsite.com/TradingRevenge.html

"If you call yourself stupid often enough, you'll begin to believe it, eroding your self-esteem. That could lead to making more trading mistakes.

Try this. Visualize a black-and-white picture of your negative thoughts, one so vivid that you cringe when you imagine it.

Picture of a lizard.

Now picture the reward of trading success. This image should be in color and rich with detail. The more intense and real you can make it, the better this will work.

In your mind, place the black-and-white image beside the color one. The color one should be larger, brighter, with more contrast and the black-and-white one should be postage stamp size, dull, and gray. Draw a diagonal black line through the black-and-white image with a circle around it.

Whenever you feel like seeking revenge, pull up these two images. Reflect on what they mean, focusing on the rewards you can gain by following your trading rules and recognizing that losses are just the cost of doing business.

By comparing the two images, you can help persuade your mind that seeking revenge will not lead to trading success. If others tell you how damaging your personality traits are, imagine how happier they and you will be when you correct them. Correcting them can be as simple as realizing that one path leads to success and riches and the other leads to stress and unhappiness. The choice of which path to take is up to you."

-- Thomas Bulkowski

You can practise your skills all day long, but it's comparatively easy to get better at playing. The hard thing is to get better at winning--anonymous
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 Traderwolf 
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marcp View Post
I have found that the more defined the methodology and setup, the easier it is to wait for the next one after a losing trade.

Excellent,, I concur with this 100%.

I have been all of over the place over the years with the amount of detail I should have in my trading plan.. Finally came to the conclusion that if my plan was not very specific I could not evaluate it and its edge or my effectiveness in trading it. I fought doing this for a long time mainly because it is so hard to put into writing a solid trading plan with a lot of detail. In talking with a lot of other traders and my own personal experience, a great majority of traders skip putting together a detailed trading plan.

My goal with my trading plan now is to have setups I can easily see(as described in detail) at the hard right edge and have specific rules for entry. At least now when I have an out of plan trade, I know it clearly does not fit my plan as described by my rules and can catch myself(hopefully). In some times in the past, there was so much grey area in my trading plan, it really wasn't clear whether it was my trading plan edge and lack of detail or my psychology.. As I have tightened up my trading plan(always a work in progress) , I can work on the psychology aspects of my trading and less on the plan itself.

Thanks for sharing.

Wolf

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 Fritzk 
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tradersam View Post
https://thepatternsite.com/TradingRevenge.html

"If you call yourself stupid often enough, you'll begin to believe it, eroding your self-esteem.

Amen bro .... Words can be used to build or destroy .... whatever you say you are, you are right.

Head up and keep your stick on the ice!
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 Traderwolf 
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tradersam View Post
https://thepatternsite.com/TradingRevenge.html

"If you call yourself stupid often enough, you'll begin to believe it, eroding your self-esteem. That could lead to making more trading mistakes.



Fritzk View Post
Amen bro .... Words can be used to build or destroy .... whatever you say you are, you are right.

@tradersam, @Fritzk,


Good stuff ...


Reminds me of the famous quote from Henry Ford:

"The man who thinks he can and the man who thinks he can't are both right."

Cheers ,

Wolf

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 Traderwolf 
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Had some issues early in the morning with PA confusion and missed most all of the big move down.. Good news is patience kept me out of stupid trades and eventually the PA became clear.

Still having problems with stop size and it is impacting me on 2 fronts: 1) Passing on trades due to stop size being too large and refusing to take a larger stop and target 2). Taking a trade with a smaller stop than the structure will allow and therefore having a stop out..... Today, 2 of the 3 losers were good trades, but stop outs due to stop being smaller than the price structure really supported.

I need to resolve this part of my trading plan before next week(Stop size versus target and how to handle).

About 2 hours of trading this style is about all I can handle with this trade plan for now. Maybe that will change, but my concentration lacks after about 2 hours.

Summary:

9 Trades
6 W
3 L

Wolf

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 Traderwolf 
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40 Trades

28 W
10 L
2 BE


Deducting commissions, this would equate to a about $700/contract / week.


On the positive side, win rate was acceptable st 70% and followed plan for the most part most of the time.

As for opportunities, still need to resolve how to handle larger than normal stops as a part of my plan. For most of the week, this cost me some really good missed trades and once I tightened my stop up ahead of a structural stop, I took some losses that could have been avoided.

Going to do an analysis of trades this weekend to hopefully give me some clarity on how to handle this.

Cheers,

Wolf

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 Traderwolf 
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Analyzed this week's data looking at MFE and MAE on trades... Recognize 40 data points not enough to draw any conclusions, but results on possibilities going forward very encouraging. Was looking for guidance on how to handle stops and targets with this increased volatility.

For now , will continue looking for 1 point(4T) on most trades and keep stops same (about 4T)unless trading a pivot break on large entry bar. If I have a large entry bar on pivot , will increase stop to what it needs to be and target will be what is needed to keep at least 1:1 R:R.. I will not trade anything with less than a 1:1 R:R.

Will gather more data in coming weeks and see what it adds.

Video was easier to describe details than typing, so short video attached.

Wolf

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First 3 trades taken without comment. Slippage on second trade at HOD and 3rd trade expecting a bounce at Gap close.

Wolf

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 Traderwolf 
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Called it quits today at 1100.... Some really good moves today. Took OR off of my charts since I really do not trade based on it .. something else to distract me. Have essentially stopped using footprint chart also.. If context right and I get a structure.. place trade.. Using only 1800T chart and 900T chart on occasion.

Today was almost surreal.. Was very comfortable letting first big move down go without me and no trades.. Beginning to accept it is better to not trade than trade a marginal setup or chase. Additional setups always around corner.

10 Trades

8 W
2 L

Wolf

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 jackbravo 
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Traderwolf View Post
Today was almost surreal.. Was very comfortable letting first big move down go without me and no trades.. Beginning to accept it is better to not trade than trade a marginal setup or chase. Additional setups always around corner.

10 Trades

8 W
2 L

Wolf

Nice job dude. I think it's that calm the books talk about. I felt today for a brief minute. It helps being up for the day rather than down for the day. Hope the rest of the week goes as well.

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 Traderwolf 
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Going to trade only until about 1100 each day.. About 2 hours of concentration all that I can take for now..

A couple of great MM reversals today.. only took one of them.. ALso took a larger than normal stop twice with larger than normal target.. One was a 8T winner and the other was a BE trade..

There is something about taking pivot trades I seem not to like.. ES retraces enough usually I can get in most trades with a limit order.. Need to evaluate doing just limit orders and not stop limit at pivots.


9 Trades

6 W
2 L
1 BE

Wolf


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 Anna K 
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Traderwolf View Post
There is something about taking pivot trades I seem not to like.. ES retraces enough usually I can get in most trades with a limit order.. Need to evaluate doing just limit orders and not stop limit at pivots.

what do you mean by pivot trades? thanks.

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 Anna K 
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Traderwolf View Post
Today was almost surreal.. Was very comfortable letting first big move down go without me and no trades.. Beginning to accept it is better to not trade than trade a marginal setup or chase. Additional setups always around corner.

So true, but so hard to do. Nice to see somebody making progress here

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 Traderwolf 
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what do you mean by pivot trades? thanks.

See attached.. place a stop limit at the turn of the PA. Good news is hopefully you have already had reversal and price will sweep you into trade.. Bad news is you take a worse price than a limit order. Mack recommends these entries for most all 1EL/S and 2EL/S.

Hope this helps.

Wolf



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So true, but so hard to do. Nice to see somebody making progress here

Beginners luck here.. A couple of good days make no trend for me... And SIM does not count as you know.. Still refining things here and working out some kinks.

Wolf

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 Traderwolf 
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Volatility Crazy.. Sat out most of trades.. TL's worthless due to speed of moves so mostly traded horizontal levels and pullbacks to them or BOPB's.. Another couple of perfect measured moves today ....

Almost took some out of plan trades where I buy a bar break opposing trend direction in a strong trend... Al Brooks micro trend play.. Would have worked several times today.. but caught myself and passed since not in plan for now.

Passed on many trades due to volatility .. Would not take some of the pullback trades due to stop size...

DOM movement created max stress for me today.. Glad I am done.

Wolf

10 Trades

7W
3L

Edit: Trade 7 is a F2EL not F2ES.


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 tradersam 
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Traderwolf View Post
See attached.. place a stop limit at the turn of the PA. Good news is hopefully you have already had reversal and price will sweep you into trade.. Bad news is you take a worse price than a limit order. Mack recommends these entries for most all 1EL/S and 2EL/S.

Hope this helps.

Wolf



Another good link is
This is an introductory chapter

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 Traderwolf 
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I color code on the 1800T chart blue any bar 8T or more as a Wide Range Bar to be used for momentum and bias.. See the overnight chart.. Literally every bar was greater than 8T.. I have never seen this before.. Liquidity not there...

Should be another wild day today with DOM jumping around and wild swings.

Wolf



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 Traderwolf 
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Scalping in this environment with small stops is pure gambling.. Only trades make any sense are limit reversal at levels and that is just gambling for the most part.

Part of this game is not digging big holes when market conditions not in your favor... Also, do not want to develop any worse habits when trading this crap than I already have. I am done for the day.


2 Gambles

2W
0L

Wolf


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 Traderwolf 
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I have found Wide Range Bars to be a useful tool in helping me to stay on the right side of the market and momentum. Today .. everything was literally a Wide Range Bar, so that was one clue for me trading would not be conducive to my style of trading... But in normal conditions , they can be quite helpful for momentum and bias.

Here is a short video on how I use them in normal volatility trading.

Wolf

PS.. Had to change my avatar to a crazy monkey until this volatility subsides.

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 steve2222 
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Hi @Traderwolf

From your last video do you mind sharing the study and settings configuration you use to create your over night hi/lo and open and vwap lines on your chart. I am particularly interested in how you got the description to print in the price scale and how you get the lines to be truncated and not display all the way to the left.

Thanks

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 Traderwolf 
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steve2222 View Post
Hi @Traderwolf

From your last video do you mind sharing the study and settings configuration you use to create your over night hi/lo and open and vwap lines on your chart. I am particularly interested in how you got the description to print in the price scale and how you get the lines to be truncated and not display all the way to the left.

Thanks

I create another chart with a session from 1800-0929:59. I put the OHLC indicator on it.. I then go to my 1800T chart and do a study/price overlay and pull the study from my OVN chart onto the 1800T chart. THis study/price overlay enables you to pull any study from one chart to another.


As for getting the values in the scale, you will see in the attached , they give you an option on where to place the label and axis scale is one option.

I use the same procedure with a regular hours chart(a different chart) where I set teh session to the pit (0930-1614:59) I put on that chart the OHLC indicator and then using the study price overlay on my 1800T chart , I pull over the Open, the previous day, HI, previous day lo, previous day close..


So in essence, I have created several different chart for the sole purpose of placing indicators on them by their session times and I pull them to my main trading chart. I do not use those other charts for any reason other than that.

Hope I have answered your questions.. If not ask some more or pm me.. Be glad to help.

BTW.. setting up the lines as points versus lines makes it where it will not draw lines between sessions and really "spiderweb" your charts with lines from your indicators between days or sessions.

Wolf

PS.. This study overlay function is one of the main reasons I love SC.. Gives me some options to do some cool things without having to prgram..




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 bobwest 
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Traderwolf View Post
So in essence, I have created several different chart for the sole purpose of placing indicators on them by their session times and I pull them to my main trading chart. I do not use those other charts for any reason other than that.

Interesting trick. Might try something like it.

Thanks.

Bob.

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-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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 Traderwolf 
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Done for the day and week...

7 Trades
6 W
1 L

Wolf



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 Traderwolf 
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Week Summary


This Week

Trades: 38

Winners: 29
Losers: 8
BE: 1


Past 2 Weeks


Trades: 78

Winners: 57
Losers: 18
BE: 3

Wolf

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 jackbravo 
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wow, your win/loss ratio seems to have jumped this week. awesome!

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 Traderwolf 
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jackbravo View Post
wow, your win/loss ratio seems to have jumped this week. awesome!

Been about the same for past 3-4 weeks.... Was 70% last week and I think 73% this week. I have been averaging between 60-75% in last 6 weeks.

Wolf

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 Traderwolf 
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Did not trade ES today.. So no chart.

Wolf

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 jackbravo 
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Traderwolf View Post
Been about the same for past 3-4 weeks.... Was 70% last week and I think 73% this week. I have been averaging between 60-75% in last 6 weeks.

Wolf



That's awesome consistency. Why no ES trade today?

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 Traderwolf 
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jackbravo View Post
That's awesome consistency. Why no ES trade today?

I have demonstrated some level of consistency trading ES, but have left a lot of money on the table since I am only trading one contract and cannot have a runner.


I looked at some other charts this weekend and decided today I would trade same method using 800T chart on NQ. The advantage lies in being able to trade 2 contracts and have a runner with a better risk profile(in $) than trading with 1 contract ES..

So today I traded same method on NQ. Did not post a chart today because this thread started about ES...

Wolf

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 jackbravo 
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Well, hope you are able to have similar success tomorrow. I've also felt like a runner is needed for ES but then I have to cut my stops in half and frequently get stopped out.

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 Anna K 
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Traderwolf View Post
I have demonstrated some level of consistency trading ES, but have left a lot of money on the table since I am only trading one contract and cannot have a runner.


I looked at some other charts this weekend and decided today I would trade same method using 800T chart on NQ. The advantage lies in being able to trade 2 contracts and have a runner with a better risk profile(in $) than trading with 1 contract ES..

So today I traded same method on NQ. Did not post a chart today because this thread started about ES...

Wolf

I hope you keep posting your NQ charts here. I'd like to know how your ES methodology compares to NQ in terms of entry points.

thanks.

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 steve2222 
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Traderwolf View Post
So today I traded same method on NQ. Did not post a chart today because this thread started about ES...

Wolf

@Traderwolf

Or you could create your own thread so you could post both NQ and ES trades there.

But I for one we enjoy seeing your application to the NQ as well.

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 Traderwolf 
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Thanks to @tradermark2009 for this post which he did some time ago. I have struggled with accepting losses are a part of trading and have subconsciously been trying for years to develop that perfect system that had no losses. At least I am aware at this point this is one of my tendencies and try to catch myself. I thought this post was important enough for me to post in my own journal.. Thanks again @tradermark2009 .


Wolf


tradermark2009 View Post
Here are my daily rules that I read each day prior to trading:

My philosophy of Trading:

1. Trading is a probability business.
2. You can win or you can lose when trading. Learn to accept losing…this is hard to learn at first. Our culture says we must win at all costs. Trading is 180 of what we have been taught in life.
3. Know the trading probability of your system.
4. Do not use real money, until you can duplicate your trading method and results in Sim mode, as you would trading real money. The pressure in RT separates from this fact.
5. Even under all your systems best risk reward setup you will still have losing trades.
6. Learn to love those losing trades just as much as you win….just keep the losers short and follow your rules.
7. Let your winners run, and keep your losers tight-Not the other way around.
It is your job to minimize your losses and maximize your winners-No One Else is responsible for you but YOU.
8. Do not take every trade you see…Know the best time for your trading method.
9. You must follow your specific rule set for each trade that will help you to be on the winning side of trades most of the time.
10. You are the Holy Grail….not a system, or someone else.
11. Become a Master of- Volume Analysis, S & R, Price action and the specific markets you trade.

Hope this helps...trade relaxed.... above all be happy. Mark


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 Traderwolf 
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NQ Again today.. Not comfortable trading it yet.. Jumps around a lot and created some anxiety not felt with ES... Small stops harder to come by in higher volatility. Of course , after I was finished , volatility dropped off as expected..


Counting commissions, was a scratch day on a big up day.

Back to ES tomorrow...........


Wolf



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 Traderwolf 
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Back with ES.... Satisfied with patience in trading range... got itchy on one trade and closed early.. Done for the day.

6 Trades

4 W
2 BE

Wolf



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 Big Mike 
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