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Learning the ES


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Learning the ES

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  #1 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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Starting this journal for the October 2014 futures.io (formerly BMT) Journaling contest. Started reading books in June 2014, paper trading in July, and live trading at the end of August. I've essentially blown up a 5k account trading the ES using TS. It taught me a lot of lessons, with many more lessons to go I fear. Reloaded 10K with IB and starting again. I've experimented with trading CL, M6E, and Wheat. The CL is probably my favorite, but I'm going to concentrate on ES and try to become profitable.

For whatever reason, my general sentiment is bearish, which gets me in trouble on up days. Trying to fix that, as well as all the other beginner mistakes I've read about, including chasing, panicking, and tilting (overtrading). I'm a gambler at heart, and feel at home day trading. However, since nearly blowing up my first account, I've become much more risk averse. Oh well. My most immediate goal is to be profitable on a daily basis, no matter how small the profit (including commissions).

Trading methods include a combination of moving averages, which gets me chopped up, and market profile to help with the choppiness. I also follow emini-watch. I find Barry calming to listen to and inspirational. I'll probably buy his indicators at some point, if I end up sticking with this.

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  #3 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
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10/1

1. Long 1965.75 @ 4am Chicago
Out 1962 for -3.75 points @ 7am

After some chopiness between 3a-4a, it looked like it was breaking up higher. I don't love this trade since it's not clean, previous swing high was 1967, which it hasn't cleared yet. I have a weakness to try to get in early if it looks like a trend, which gets me in trouble.
--Well, about 30 minutes later, it's down to 1964. Hurts me. I have a stop at 1962.75, and I won't allow myself to get out of the trade until stop is hit, since I have a tendency to panick.
--Arggh....dropped to 1963, and I almost got out, but made myself wait for it to hit the stop. Came back up to 1964, and thought about getting out there. Argghhh...I'm such a freaking amateur.
--Well, it dropped to 62.75, but my stop didn't fill on IB. I think it's because of their strange "SMART Routing" thing (I hope). Still in it! I hate not knowing which way it's going. I prefer trades where the direction is more obvious. Choppy choppety.
--Almost 2hrs later, still in the trade, floating in the low 63s. Sheesh, I must love that feeling of anxiety. Like Seykota says, "everybody gets what they want out of the market."
--2.5hrs later, stop hasn't been hit. Not sure why since dropped to 62.50. Anyway, it's hovering in high 62s now. I moved the stop to 62.50. Gonna get out manually if it keeps dropping and my stop doesn't activate
--Well, the thing dropped to 62, and my stop still didn't activate. Not sure why. I exited manually at 61.75 for a loss of 4points.


2. Long 1960.75 @ 745am
Out at 1955.25 for -5.50 points @ 840am

Looked like it hit lows of 57.75 and started back up.
--And...it immediately drops to 59. Mother Father!
--Alright, started climbing a bit over 61. There may be a pullback at 62. Need to not get out.
--Up to 63, back down to 61. And it's almost 830....ahhhh...hate having an open position at the opening bell. Should I get out?? I don't want to give up my position!
--aaahhhh ....hate opening bell. back into the 57s!
--Stopped out!!


3. Long 1953.50 @ 858am
Out at 1948.25 for -5.25 points @ 905am

Actually got a long signal this time at 53, so it I took it after some hesitation. I feel like it's probably going to test back down to 48.
--And, it's just went back down under 50. Why don't I listen to myself??
--Damn you Tony Laporta for influencing me!!


4. Long 1949.50 @ 915am
Out at 1950.25 for +0.75 points @ 932am

Got another long signal. Decided to take it again. Yeesh.
--got up to 52.75 then headed back down


5. Long 1950.25 @ 944am
Out at 1951.25 for +1 points @ 1001am

No signal this time, but it made a double bottom. Am I crazy? maybe.
--got a sell signal and I took even though I didn't think I should. Argggh.


6. Long 1954.25 @ 1002am
Out at 1955.50 for +1.25 points @ 1010am


Tried to get back in at 53.25, but IB wasn't letting me!! bastards! This what happens when I start the day 15points down. I just can't think clearly!
--I just can't stomach any hint at retracements at the moment

7. Short 1949
Out at 1949.50 for -0.5 (technical error)

8. Short 1948.50
Out at 1948.75 for -0.25 (technical error)

9. Short 1948.25
Out at 1948.50 for -0.25 (technical error)

10. Short 1947.75
Out at 1945.75 for +2

11. Short 1946.50
Out at 1945.25 for +1.25

12. Short 1945.50
Out at 1943.25 for +2.25

13. Short 1943
Out at 1944.50 for -1.50

14. Short 1943.25
Out at 1940.25 for +3

15. Short 1938.75
Out at 1941.25 for -2.5

16. Long 1942.75
Out at 1941.25 for -1.50

17. Short 1940.75
Out at 1942 for -1.25

18. Short 1939.50
Out at 1936.75 for +2.75

19. Short 1934.50
Out at 1938 for -3.50

20. Long 1938.50
Out at 1936.25 for -2.25

21. Short 1935.50
Out at 1937 for -1.50

22. Long 1938.25
Out at 1938.75 for +0.50

23. Long 1940
Out at 1940.50 for +0.50

24. Long 1941.25
Out at 1940.25 for -1

25. Long 1941.75
Out at 1973.75 for +2





Yikes. 15.5 pts down. i was back to 6.5 pts at some point. Got stopped out a bunch of times due to moving stops too tight, since i didn't want to lose again. so bad. Classic rookie mistakes:
Overtrading: check
Tight stops: check
User errors: check
Cutting profits and Running losses: check
Lack of confidence: check
Not following your own rules: check
Let yourself get chopped up: check

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 Big Mike 
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  #5 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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Thanks, Mike.

10/2

1. Long 1943.25 @ 1am
Out at 1940 for -3.25

Looked like it was going to bounce back a bit. I hope I'm not crazy for trading again so quickly after a disaster yesterday. I'm going to have to go back and document the rest of the trades.
--went down about 2.5pts right after I bought it, which I should have known it would do, and gotten myself a much better position. I'm always trying to buy breakouts, and it never works. there's always a retracement before the actual breakout (at least more often than just breaking out). i hate doing that and yet i keep doing it.
--I went out, and it came back up. I suck.

2. Short 1940
Didn't fill ! And I don't want to chase. Argh!

3. Short 1937
Out at 1937.75 for -0.75

Hate myself for chasing.
--went down to 36 twice and came back up. Decided to get out.

4. Short 1937.75
Out at 1938.75 for -1

Because I like pain.
--don't judge me

5. Short 1939
Out at 39.50 for -0.50

Because if I don't trade, from whom else are the pros going to make money.

6. Long 1940.75
Out at 43.25 for +2.5

Because you can't stop the music. Got a clean signal. Though now I'm even doubtful of those.
--I just couldn't keep holding on. Not with all the recent trauma.

7. Long 1943.75
Out at 43.50 for -0.25

Signal refresh though not as clean. I'll be even more antsy to get out, if that's possible.
--crap. false signal refresh. didn't wait until bar close.
--after a bunch of jibberjabber b/w 43.25 and 44, I had to get out. Just couldn't take it.

8. Short 1937.75
Out at 1935.25 for +2.50

9. Long 1938.25
Out at 1937.25 for -1

Dropped two points before heading back to close gap. Stop too tight.

10. Long 1939.50
Out 1939.75 for +0.25

Should have gotten out at 41, like my original plan.

11. Long 1940.50
Out at 1938 for -2.5

Has been uptrending from opening bell on volume profile.
--damn you volume profile

12. Short 1936.75
Out at 1939.75 for -3

Got a sell signal at 38.25, took it late. was fake anyway.


13. Short 1937.50
Out 40.25 for -2.75

Looks like a lot of selling pressure. Got a signal short and 30 min is diving. Just looking for 2.5.
--Mother father! went down about 1.25pts and came back. bastard
--Immediately went down to 35.5 after it hit my stop. i've gotta widen my stops again.

14. Short 1933
Out 1931.75 for +1.25

Man, it hit my 2.5pt target but I moved it! i'm such a bastard.

15. Short 29.75
Out 29.75 for Commision

I lost my stomach, right before it went to hit my target. blehh

16. Short 28.75
Out 31 for -2.25

Looking to get back in after short rally. It's so embarassing to keep writing down losses. geez. i'm not sure who i'm embarassed from.

17. Short 27
Out 25.75 for +1.25

Mother Father! Went out on just a slight retracement. Then went down to target. When will I learn???? I don't know.
Got another sell signal at 22.25. Just couldn't take it. Just couldn't. Argh.

18. Long 23.50
Out 24 for +0.50

Got a buy signal, looked clean. Just didn't trust it, but it kept going up. I don't think I'm cut out for trading.

19. Long 24.50
Out at 27 for +2.5

Funny, it retraced down a couple of points after the buy signal. I'm kind of glad I didn't take it. When it came back up, my fingers were working again.

Well, down 8.5pts today with commissions. That's 24 points in the last 2 days. I'm a flippin' idiot. I feel like I'm so close yet so far away.

20. Short 25
Out at 26.50 for -1.5

went my way for a min, then retraced until i couldn't stand it.

21. Long 30
Out 32.50 for +2.5

I guess it was I got out on #20. Missed my signal here at 28.

22. Short 36
Out 35.75 for +0.25

23. Short 35
Out 35.75 for -0.75

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ofatrader
Europe
 
 
Posts: 79 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 428 given, 150 received

Hi @jackbravo,

I trade like you always ES. In that instrument you don't need to use a 3 points stop o bigger than that, with 6 tics, it's 1.5 you can have enough space for your trade to know if you are wrong or not. This kind of stops, 3 points or more, if you are day trading are to big, because you need to live with the noise. And the noise can be confused. If you are swing trades maybe you need to have a bigger stop, but focus on losing less and winning more, positive expectancy, rather than the other side.

One of the big problems that one trader can have is not accepting losses, but it's somenthing inherent in this job. If you need to accept losses, try to find a point where you don't receive damage for it. For example, is losing 75 dollars somenthing that you can support for trading with you mind clearly. Losing 300 dollars keep inside of your mind fear? Think in that and find your sand in the line.

Think in yesterday's action, in a way down you don't take short trades. Analize if you were trading what you wanted or what the market was telling you.


Good luck in your trading!

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 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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Thanks: 4,346 given, 2,389 received

Thanks for the advice, OfaTrader

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 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,346 given, 2,389 received

Looks like I'm giving away money hand over fist. Really, I'm contributing a valuable service. I'm providing "liquidity." I feel like I'm so close, yet....very very far away.

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 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,346 given, 2,389 received

10/2

Today, we learn discipline.

1. Long 46.50
Out 46.50 for commission

Was trying to get out at 47.25 but order wasn't transmitted. User error. Boo.

2. Long 46.25
Out 46 for -0.25

Argh. Jumped in again out of frustration and immediately jumped out when it dropped.


3. Long 46
Out 47.50 for +1.5

Good trade. Held on through a bunch of retracements. Felt good about myself. Had targeted 51. Never got above 1949.75. Then started falling. Had a stop at 48 ,which didn't trigger. Not user error! Not sure what happened there IB!

4. Long 48
Out 47 for -1

Geebus. I can't keep taking trades based on ticks! Where's that discipline I'm supposed to learn today??

[5. NO TRADE: Almost take another trade at 48.25 due to uptick but reminded myself of the recent pain. I'm not a complete jackass after all!)

5. Long 49.5
Out 51.25 for +1.75

Got a signal here. A bit risky since it hasn't been able to break through 50, but I'm trying to stick with the plan.

Well, it hit 51. I coud've been out with my 5 points. Instead, I'm left here trying to get it again, with greater market exposure. Funny, I did a sim trade on TS at the same time as the real trade, and the SIM trading is up close to 6 points, while my real trade is down 1 round of commissions. Lol.

Wow, I don't know what just happened. The ticks were freaking flying. IB's booktrader is so confusing. I set a limit at 54, which it didn't hit (got up to 53.75). And I tried to set a stop at 46, which took me out at 51.25. Anywway, probably for the best. I can't handle this much crazy.

[NO TRADE: skipped a sell signal at 50, went down to 47. Really want to go long again at 50 after it's turned around, but i hate having a position at opening bell).

6. Short 56.75
Out 56.25 for +0.5

Trying to put a sell stop at 56 and put it in a limit, filled on IB, gosh darn it.
Man, went down to 52, target was 51. Didn't realize VWAP was 51.5. Went back up to 54. SHould've just settled for 4 points.
On the plus side, I got a sell signal at 57.

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ofatrader
Europe
 
 
Posts: 79 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 428 given, 150 received



jackbravo View Post
10/2

Today, we learn discipline.

1. Long 46.50
Out 46.50 for commission

Was trying to get out at 47.25 but order wasn't transmitted. User error. Boo.

2. Long 46.25
Out 46 for -0.25

Argh. Jumped in again out of frustration and immediately jumped out when it dropped.

3. Long 46
Out 47.50 for +1.5

Good trade. Held on through a bunch of retracements. Felt good about myself. Had targeted 51. Never got above 1949.75. Then started falling. Had a stop at 48 ,which didn't trigger. Not user error! Not sure what happened there IB!

REALLY NICE!! @jacbravo

keeping losses small is more easy to walk up

Great trading

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 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,346 given, 2,389 received

Thanks OAT but you complemented too early.

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ofatrader
Europe
 
 
Posts: 79 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 428 given, 150 received

Hi @jackbravo,

Your trading not need to be with going for tics. Need to be with consistency. What problem do you see if you are able to win 4 tics a day consistently?

Consistency is somenthing that need to be the base of your trading. NO supertrades o bigtrades. I'm not speaking about take or not big trades, but if you are able to do somenthing consistently, then only you need to add size

Your work need to go in that way, finding somenthing that you can do consistently

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 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,346 given, 2,389 received

You're right OAT. I need consistency. I only have 2 days I can trade this week, so that will be my focus. I'm really going to try to focus on the process rather than the P&L, if I can keep my emotions in check. Thank you.

I'm renumbering the trades so that I can keep track of the total trades for the month.
range guessing: 52-78

10/6


56. Short 68.50
Out at 65 for +3.5

I know I could probably let it run. There was a candlestick I didn't like on the five minute though so I got out, I'm sure way too early. Entry wasn't with the my trading rules, yet felt low risk with the thing hitting 70, put at stop at 71.

57. Short 63.75
Out at 66.25 for -2.5

Oh man. I keep second guessing my rules and not waiting. sheesh! PROCESS!

58. Short 61.50
Out 61.75 for -0.25

Waited for signal this time, even though I really really wanted to jump in again. My stop was too tight at 2.5 points. Oh well. that's what I get for not waiting in the first place.
too much back and forth. probably should have stayed in.

59. Short 59.25
Out 62.25 for -3

Mother Father! Keep getting stopped out!

60. Short 58.350
Out 53.50 for +5

Finally! Sheesh! If I hadn't moved my stop on that first entry from 64, I've woulve been up close to 10pts for the day. I'm such a sucker!

61. Long 56
Out 56.50 for +0.5

Just couldn't stomach that little retracement. Argh. Still not focusing on the process.

62. Long 54.25
Out 51.50 for -2.75

Thought we hit bottom at 52s. dang it.

63. Long 52.50
Out 58 for +5.5

Target of 59.5 was hit but didn't fill. Should've just moved it to 59.25 when I thought about it. Oh well.

64. Long 60.75
Out 58.25 for -2.5

Broke through 60, but bought in before signal generated.
Yet again...not waiting for the signal.

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 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
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10/7

65. Short 1945
Out at 40 for +5

Got a signal to short at 1948.25, but didn't take since it was within 3 minutes of opening bell and I hate having a position at opening bell, maybe that's something I should reconsider.
Got out at 40. Couldn't stand the price action. Was looking to close the gap at 38.50.

66. Long 40.75
Out 40.50 for -0.25

Just felt like it wants to go up, hit double bottom on the chart, lots of volume and it's not going anywhere.
Got scared when it dropped to 40 though and I got a sell signal. Hate getting signals opposite to my position.
and now it's up over 43. jimminy.

67. Long 38.25
Out at 38 for -0.25

68. Long 38.25
Out at 38.50 for +0.25

69. Long 38.50
Out at 37.75 for -0.75

Well, the above three trades are clear anti-trend and not-following-the-process trades. Due to some signals and double bottoms, I thought it was at the bottom and turning back. Also, I'm still a bit tilting from earlier when I had correctly picked the bottom. I guess the question is how often am I right on the bottom? Regardless, I should just pick a stop and stick with it.

70. Short 36.75
Out at 35.25 for +1.5

Finally decided to go with my signal, but ProAm was showing profit taking and amateur volume patterns, which made me very hesitant and I jumped out.
After which it plunged 10 points. $^&##!

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 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,346 given, 2,389 received

Wow did I miss some fireworks last week.

10/13

71. Long 1901.25
Out at 1897.75 for -3.5

Got a signal at 1901. Stopped out.

72. Long at 1900.75
Out at 1905.75 for +5

Got back in and hit target. Need to move out stops in high volatility??

73. Long 94.75
Out at 92 for -2.75

Took the signal, though it wasn't clean. stopped out. oh well.

74. Short 94
Out 95.5 for -1.5

Has been chopping at the vwap. Last time it did that, it sank. Testing it out.
.....And it didn't work

75a. Long 96
Out 01 for +5

Uh Oh...this is where I usually get chopped up

75b. Long 96
Out at 02 for +6

Trying out a runner
moved stop to +2.5
Trailing the stop by 5pts
Wow...that's an unexpected feeling. I really reallly really want to get out. Tough to hang in there, seeing the profit dwindle on the runner
crap it hit target but didn't fill since that was the last high. i was telling my self to move it down by 1 tick but did it too late cause i was thinking there'd be a bunch of stops over 96 that'd get hit and it scream higher

76a. Short 94.75
Out 97.25 for -2.5

76b. Short 94.75
Out 97.25 for -2.5

MotherFather! No signal. Just broke under vwap.

77. Short 95
Out at 94.50 for +0.5

Started trading off the 750tck, which threw me off

78. Short 93.50
Out at 95 for -1.5

Scared myself and got out. Would have had a much better position.

79a. Short 92.75
Out at 87.50 for +5.25

79b. Short 91.75
Out at 87.50 for +4.25

At this point, I just wanted to get out of the thing, even though I had the intention of making one of those a runner. Kept going down to at least the 84s

80. Long 77.25
Out 77 for -0.25

81. Long 73.25
Out 71.75 for -1.5

Trying to catch the reversal always kill me.
Keep wanting to jump back in, but i'm out for the day!
That runner from earlier would've done pretty well, and wouldve kept me out of trying to take those reversals. Oh well. More lessons to be learned.

wow, down to 66

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 jackbravo 
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10/14

82. Long 76
Out at 75.25 for -0.75

Broke through resistance but didn't keep going. Decided to get out until there was more a sure direction.

83. Short 70.75
Out at 69 for +1.75

Just couldn't take the price action. Grrrr


84. Long 71.25
Out at 77.25 for +6

had to get out. just couldn't take it. initial target was 78.25.
wowza, just exploded to the 80s. woulda been nice for a 10pt runner. once again, had a good target that I talked myself out of.




ahhh...getting buy signal here at 77. can't make myself take it. sheesh
here's my fear: it's going to jibber jabber around here until opening bell. the big boys are going to take it back down to close the gap before they take it up for the rest of the day, and I'm going to get stuck long cause I can't suffer through 12 points of price action (or even any really, who am i kidding).

85. Long 76.50
Out at 74 for -2.5

Gosh darn it. Should've moved it 1 tck lower.

86. Long 78
Out 78.50 for +0.5

Gosh darn it. Should've stuck with my 5pt PT. I was ttrying to learn from yesterday and let it ride. Grrrrr
And...of course, it hits my 85.25 target. I think I have something pathologic.

And I'm done. Starting to get emotional. I could've been a contender.

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 kickmic 
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Hi, I cannot deduce from your journal how well you are reading price action. Sure emotional control is critical and it's something I'll forever be improving, however it gets much easier when you have a robust trading approach
While each market has its own characteristics, a robust approach can be applied to any market. There consider a mini FX account which allows you to trade tiny size to help you overcome thinking about the money

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 jackbravo 
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kickmic View Post
Hi, I cannot deduce from your journal how well you are reading price action. Sure emotional control is critical and it's something I'll forever be improving, however it gets much easier when you have a robust trading approach
While each market has its own characteristics, a robust approach can be applied to any market. There consider a mini FX account which allows you to trade tiny size to help you overcome thinking about the money

Yes, my emotions are definitely getting the better of me. Part of the reason is that I'm constantly tweaking my approach, likely you suspected, which causes me to mistrust any new input. I've traded the m6e in the past. Thanks for stopping by.

i like the way you chronicle your trades on the chart. maybe i should do that instead of words

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 kickmic 
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Yes, my emotions are definitely getting the better of me. Part of the reason is that I'm constantly tweaking my approach, likely you suspected, which causes me to mistrust any new input. I've traded the m6e in the past. Thanks for stopping by.

i like the way you chronicle your trades on the chart. maybe i should do that instead of words

The m6e is poor liquidity wise for intrastate trading, IB have tight spreads and low comms for an cash FX position determined by you. You can use the 6e to base your decisions on but place trades on cash FX.

Aim of game is enter wholesale and exit retail. Beauty of reviewing your trades on the chart is its blatantly obvious as to whether or not you are achieving this

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 jackbravo 
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honestly, forex scares me.
i would like to trade it, but i've decided that I want to be consistent on the ES first. If I can do that in the next year or so, then I'll move on to crude and the Euro, possibly gold (one at a time, of course). I'm about 4 months in, so got a while to go yet.

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 jackbravo 
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10/15
What a friggin' day
Just kept fighting the trend, and when I was with it, I'd get stopped out by huge retracements beyond entry before trend continued. Quit right before the rally I was trying to catch. I suck.

Total: -40points

I need to know when to quit and have a max drawdown per day rule.

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 jackbravo 
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10/16

Renovating my tools with zigzag. Seems to be helping. Crazy day today. Going to sit out. Had something like 21 points at my high. Not following my new rules on the first trade of the day cost me about 7 points. Ended

Total: +15points

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 jackbravo 
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Xelaneb View Post
if imbalance leads to balance, eyeing this distribution area within prior bracket. 1850 value, 1885 resistance, 1790 support.


keeping this for future reference on volume composite.

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 jackbravo 
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10/17


Total: -1.5 points

Should've been up 10 or so points, but due to technical errors, I'm down. Sucks. Apparently IB's child orders aren't OCA orders with the parent order, which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Boobs. I'm done for the day.

EDIT: oohh man, i was about to go to sleep and....there was huge volume spike at 10:49, about 8k contracts and price fell after it. I kept telling myself to sell sell sell, but i just couldn't trust myself, since i've been so wrong in the past. bought at a consolidation in the 80s and made a couple of points back on retracement. ? trend change. can't stick around to find out

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 kickmic 
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It literally took me years before I could read price action correctly, and that included working with two seasoned full time traders. (I don't use market profile as I don't require anything additional to what I do)

Stan Weinsteins book is a great start. Although its EOD, all of the examples he use and more useful, the exercises he gets you doing are applicable to intraday

Secondly, moving averages can be used without leading to be chopped up. I use them in conjunction with understanding price action to avoid being chopped up. There is far more to using ma's than when they cross, which direction are they moving. More specifically, its about what price is currently doing in relation to them.

It would be helpful if you developed the ability to recognise when price is contracting and when it is expanding. Stan's book is a good intro to this (although I dont think he uses those terms)

As I said, I found reading price particularly difficult for a long time before it clicked. But when it does, you'll find stuff just jumps out at you.

If I was to have my time again, I would pick one setup and just master that before ever trying something additional. And my choice would be a retest fail on a pullback with bias. Exclude shallow pullbacks - just the ones that are deep enough that say wholesale written all over them.

Fading IMO should not be attempted until consistently profitable at with-trend trading

Hope that helps and its not a case of too much

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 jackbravo 
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kickmic View Post

If I was to have my time again, I would pick one setup and just master that before ever trying something additional. And my choice would be a retest fail on a pullback with bias. Exclude shallow pullbacks - just the ones that are deep enough that say wholesale written all over them.

Fading IMO should not be attempted until consistently profitable at with-trend trading

Hope that helps and its not a case of too much

Thanks man. Actually, that's exactly the road I switched to on a couple of days ago. I find the zigzag indicator really helps me with visualizing the pullbacks, especially those deep ones. I've been trying to stay with the trend, then add to those deep pullbacks, in conjunction with price action intepretation. I'm not interested in fading at the moment, but when the trend changes, that first pullback I've told myself I just have to treat like any other pullback in the old trend, then switch to the to other side when the pullback is done...still getting used to it though. Also, I can't seem to keep myself in the trend due to panicking, but I'm slowly getting better. Really, I just want 10 points in each trend leg, and I'm happy with that. I'm not at the stage where I can push it to every last tick.

Today was the first time the price action+volume jumped at me. I hope that occurs more often, and even though I've read a bunch about it, it's hard to implement in the heat of the moment. My head is just not clear enough. I think I'm slowly getting better, just have to be vigilent I guess. Thank you for the book recs, I'll check it out. As you said, I'm still very early in mastery, though I do see a glimmer of hope.

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 kickmic 
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you understand the psychology behind retest failures?
think of them as 2nd mouse gets the cheese - there are a couple examples in my journal - if you can just focus on those, then you have something to lean on in terms of what constitutes a tight entry and tight risk level.
dont count ticks to set targets, look at price relative to a short term ma (no magic number to set, fyi i use a 20) - when price expands is when its time to exit - again see my journal for examples
deep pullbacks give you better reward to risk, so you can make some mistakes yet still be profitable

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 Traderwolf 
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jackbravo View Post
I find the zigzag indicator really helps me with visualizing the pullbacks, especially those deep ones.

I find that indicator extremely useful as well.. One of the few ones I will use.. Keeps me in tune with current day "waves" and volatility.

Best to you..

Wolf

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 jackbravo 
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kickmic View Post
you understand the psychology behind retest failures?
think of them as 2nd mouse gets the cheese - there are a couple examples in my journal - if you can just focus on those, then you have something to lean on in terms of what constitutes a tight entry and tight risk level.
dont count ticks to set targets, look at price relative to a short term ma (no magic number to set, fyi i use a 20) - when price expands is when its time to exit - again see my journal for examples
deep pullbacks give you better reward to risk, so you can make some mistakes yet still be profitable


My understanding of restest failures is responsive buyers/sellers come in at a certain level and drive the price back in its original trend.

I've been looking at price relative to MA but not in terms of expansion/contraction, only if higher/lower. Thanks, I'll look at that.

Appreciate the tips man!


Traderwolf View Post
I find that indicator extremely useful as well.. One of the few ones I will use.. Keeps me in tune with current day "waves" and volatility.

Best to you..

Wolf

Thanks Wolf, best to you as well.



tigertrader View Post
this week's trading days are #s 14-18 of-the-month

according to these stats and ryan's, i should cover my longs tomorrow...


Saving this for the future. Not sure why, but I find these random stats fascinating. It's almost like baseball stats.

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 kickmic 
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jackbravo View Post
My understanding of restest failures is responsive buyers/sellers come in at a certain level and drive the price back in its original trend

No cigar
what is going on in the minds of other players on both sides of market?
You're a late short, market pushes down and puts in New low, retraces pushes down again and can't move lower than last low, what's going on in your mind, what are you going to do?
You are a buyer who likes to get in as soon as market looks like it has turned up from a new low, you love picking bottoms. You watch the market move up from your entry and think you are on to a winner. Market reverses back down... not all new longs picked the perfect bottom, plenty would have bought higher than the dip, what do you do when price reverses back down?
If you got stopped out of your long only to see market fail to move lower than previous low and now you are out but market is moving direction you had originally hoped... How does this make you feel andand what are you likely to do
Note, when u say you, I actuaactuay mean others in the market, just ttrying to get you to think as if in their shoes

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 jackbravo 
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kickmic View Post
No cigar
what is going on in the minds of other players on both sides of market?

Actually, you are talking to me, because those are the exact things I've been doing and now am trying to get away from! lol


kickmic View Post
You're a late short, market pushes down and puts in New low, retraces pushes down again and can't move lower than last low, what's going on in your mind, what are you going to do?

-it this a double bottom?
-have we hit support?
-i should book profits. Should I book profits or hope it breaks through?
-**(#*$
-crap, it's coming back up. gotta get out. getting out. i'm out for scratch to 1point.
-ah crap, it's going back down. hate myself.



kickmic View Post
You are a buyer who likes to get in as soon as market looks like it has turned up from a new low, you love picking bottoms. You watch the market move up from your entry and think you are on to a winner. Market reverses back down... not all new longs picked the perfect bottom, plenty would have bought higher than the dip, what do you do when price reverses back down?


wait until it breaks what I thought was the bottom then get out.



kickmic View Post
If you got stopped out of your long only to see market fail to move lower than previous low and now you are out but market is moving direction you had originally hoped... How does this make you feel andand what are you likely to do


grrr...so mad. when didn't i just stick with my gut instinct??i'm getting back in now. better get back in quick!



kickmic View Post
Note, when u say you, I actually mean others in the market, just trying to get you to think as if in their shoes


so i guess a retest failure is based on people figuring they're on the wrong side of the trend and covering, which drives the trend further

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 kickmic 
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Late shorts have to cover, their scanner to exit helps fuel prices higher
ThThe bottom pickers get stopped out only to ssee trend go off without them and they feel they are missing out and chase to get back in, helping fuel the rally further

The first buyers are the first mouse who hgt get trapped if they haven't picked the right bottom, so better to be the 2nd mouse on the retest fail and get the cheese. It's safer on the second go. It also shows sellers have failed on two occasions now to push market lower... That is powerful market info you have been told. It's confirmation. The bottom pickers don't have any thing to go on other than what their opinion is

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 jackbravo 
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kickmic View Post
Late shorts have to cover, their scanner to exit helps fuel prices higher
ThThe bottom pickers get stopped out only to ssee trend go off without them and they feel they are missing out and chase to get back in, helping fuel the rally further

The first buyers are the first mouse who hgt get trapped if they haven't picked the right bottom, so better to be the 2nd mouse on the retest fail and get the cheese. It's safer on the second go. It also shows sellers have failed on two occasions now to push market lower... That is powerful market info you have been told. It's confirmation. The bottom pickers don't have any thing to go on other than what their opinion is

I'm trying to learn that patience of waiting rather than jumping in. I think it's part of learning how the market moves and underlying structure, which I'm still trying to get cemented and trust that information. Appreciate your advice.

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jackbravo View Post
Saving this for the future. Not sure why, but I find these random stats fascinating. It's almost like baseball stats.

Here is the Master Homework and Statistics thread:



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 jackbravo 
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Thanks!
...ah shoot. maybe one day when i'm elite.

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 jackbravo 
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man, can't find a spot to get in. feeling very risk averse. i'm probably done for the day, unless there's a major trend change. here are today's trades. screwed up the second one by chasing. waited for pullbacks on the others and didn't do anything stupid like fade the trend. i am only disappointed in that i didn't have the confidence to hold on for my 5 point target in each trade, ended up with +8.25 points for the day.



EDIT: except the last trade where i tried to fade and failed. bastard!

down to +6.25

EDIT: got a last minute scalp in based on being wrong-footed above and the conviction of TigerTrader to 1900

back up to +8.25


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 jackbravo 
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10/21

man, got stamped trying to fade this morning before the open, hoping for a gap close attempt. reversed long at 17.50 and holding, trying to learn from yesterday's mistakes. it worries me though that we've already gone up close to yesterday's range, and it's only mid-morning. not sure if it one of those days where a reversal will happen, or is a slow grind day unstoppable no matter what???

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 marpol 
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Hey Jack great journal. Been through a lot of the stuff you are talking about. Are you still having trouble with IB OrderBook? If so let me know and I will help with some tricks.

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lombardo
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looks like a darvas box

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 jackbravo 
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10/21




Well, as soon as I recognized it was a grind up day, my plan was to hold on to the bitter end with the my first trade. unfortunately, I got sidetracked with the dip, the corollaries non-correlating, and other BS and got out of the trade. After that, I kept hopping in and out back and forth. Don'd know what my total is yet, but I think it should be +8.25 points (when it could have been +25 !! again !! ). I'm such a dimwit. I thought I had learned from yesterday, but apparently, I had not.

EDIT: Total +8 points

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 jackbravo 
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10/22


Well, today is a new day. feeling bearish, but i'm always feeling bearish, even during this last 3 day rally, so i'm learning to ignore my bias.

I wanted to SELL this lower high at 37.75, but just don't have the balls pre open, since yesterday's close is 38.25. After I went in, I decided it was more prudent to stay out, so got out with 0.5 point. I'm going to wait until things develop a bit, also need to get the boys ready for school, make lunch, take the trash out, and other Mr. Mom duties, so I can't be here watching the screen.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


So much hope for the day. Got totally cut up and overtraded, especially during the earlier consolidation. Kept telling msyelf to wait, but just didn't. Got on the wrong side of the market the rest of the time. Other than 1 nice move.



Tota:l -5.5pts

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 jackbravo 
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10/23

Feeling Mixed today. Things still looking bearish:
Breadth
Bonds near support again

But there were some very strong buyers at 20.50 yesterday, the thing just leaped up once it hit again. Also, overnight, some strong buyers. So not really feeling any one direction today. Some resistance at the daily 50ema, which was near yesterday's high too. I guess we'll see where we go. I prefer having no bias anyway.

man , what a flippin day. got in early on the long trend, got stopped out a bunch of times due to tight stops .need to widen them back out to 5 points. didnt' get out in time even though in retrospect there were a bunch of sell signals, which I guess completely ignored in favor of an arbitrary target. I don't know how many times i've heard/read to pay attention to the market, not to your own bias. i'm cognitive that's what i need to do, but apparently i am having a difficult time with implemtation. must be some sort of pathology. i tried to trade the crash, which was not good. i tried to trade the evening hours, which was not good since i was trading scared. not sure why i do that, but i do. Total today: -18pts. It's going to take a minimum of a week to get that back, if i'm perfect. (i don't know what happened to my IB chart, doesn't have the arrows anymore, just some lines. hard to tell where i took the trades, so not posting the chart).

Selling signals missed at 56, that all occurred at the same time, with plenty of time to get out:
1. Forum consensus: unfortunately, I am a contrarian by nature, so it's almost like I read what other people are doing and do the exact opposite instead of following along with 100 years of trading experience. I should consider not visiting the thread anymore.
2. *5* consecutive bars of high volume and shortened range on the 5000tck chart. As this was not the beginning of a trend, it was clearly exhaustion selling and signaling end of trend. Additionally, price started down after all this volume.
3. oversold RSI with divergent peaks
4. end-of-trend signal on the eminiwatch oscillator
5. peak divergence on money flow
6. resistance on the daily chart

What the flip is wrong with my brain that allows this cognitive disconnect? I think I may be too easily distracted. Just need to focus on what I told myself to look at. It is also possible there are too many things I'm looking at, and it's causing information overload. I shouldn't really need 6 confirmations to pick up a signal.

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 lovetotrade 
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Man you have got a lot of info going on here. I am sure you have picked up that more info isn't necessarily a good thing if you are already struggling with reading the chart confidently. If I can offer any advice it would be to simplify, simplify, simplify!

I have been where you are, and you are right, hanging out on the forum trying to justify yours, or get new opinions about market direction is not a wise choice. Especially while you have money on the line.

I can definitely recognize the bearish bias based on your chart entries, I would also say that over trading is a bit of a concern as well. Jumping in and out of trades like that is not ideal long term. Have you tried swing trading? I had to quit day trading, and switch to a longer term chart to learn to trade well before I even had a chance at becoming profitable as a day trader. I am no pro by any means, but it helped hone my skills in a way that short term trading never could. Just a suggestion.

Instead of trying to to battle with your short bias, try following a short term ema(10 period works well on ES 5 minute chart) and do a little reversion to the mean trading. When the ema is pointing higher, buy pullbacks to within one tick of the ema, and the opposite when it's pointed lower. Set profit target at 1 ATR to build confidence. Would be a good exercise to get you trading with the trend, instead of such erratic short/long trading when say, the trend is clearly up or down.

Throwing a trend line on your chart, and marking where your HH's, HL's, LH's, LL's are at will help you identify your trend without having a bunch of indicators giving you mixed signals. When the trend is up you buy, when it's down you sell, and when it's sideways you wait.

Good luck and keep at it!

P.S. I strongly suggest you do not push your stops back out to 5 points, try getting your entries closer to a measurable form of support or resistance. Ideally within a couple of points.

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 jackbravo 
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@lovetotrade - thank you for your advice. i've been using the zigzag lines and a 50ma to keep me on the right side of the trend. it was working earlier in the week, then i totally broke down and stopped following it. not sure why exactly, but i think a big part is once i have a few trades that don't work out, I become emotional and start to decompensate. The trades that hurt me the most emotionally aren't the ones that get me stopped out. They're the ones where the trade was correct, and i stopped myself out by being afraid once i'm in the the trade, then i try to jump back in to the trade once it goes my direction again, stop myself out again, and it just escalates from there. I realize this morning, that's what I did yesterday early morning, and it killed me.

I appreciate your advice. Good luck with your trading.

10/24

Today's goals:
Keep calm and trade.
Be fearless, agile, convicted.

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 lovetotrade 
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Make sure you write down a few basic rules, and review them throughout the day. If you are like me(and it sounds like it) then it hurts more emotionally to not follow your system than lose money. And while the latter one sucks, the former one is personal.

But start with some entry rules, and just focus on staying disciplined to those rules, until you are doing it every time with confidence. If you focus on building confidence in one area it will migrate to the rest. So if you have an entry that follows your rules, and you feel good about it. I feel like if you can focus on that, then you will be less likely to abandon ship, and just jump out of the trade. You will be more likely to look forward to the follow through.

And if you find yourself straying from your rules, and jumping in and out or becoming emotional, then walk away from the screen for a few minutes, and take some deep breaths. Does wonders.

Remember, simplify. Thanks and good luck.

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 lovetotrade 
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jackbravo View Post
Take from the market, don't let it take from you.


Swap that out for following your plan/rules. The market is not out to get you, don't make it personal.

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 jackbravo 
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Make sure you write down a few basic rules, and review them throughout the day. If you are like me(and it sounds like it) then it hurts more emotionally to not follow your system than lose money. And while the latter one sucks, the former one is personal.

Yes! That is exactly it! I was trying to put that into words. I rather lose money from following my system than not following my system. I like your idea about focusing on one aspect, the entry, and building confidence with that. Entry is monumentally important to me. Due to my risk profile, I do best when my risk entry is very low (under 2 points).

I've discovered something else. I took off the P&L and what a difference that makes. I'm able to think much more clearly. Ready to rock and roll.

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 jackbravo 
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10/24

Total: -15.25pts

What's even more terrible is that if I had just traded the day trend over the last two weeks, I'd be up 200 points rather than down 50. Projecting account blowout in 2 months if this trend continues.

Good things about today:
Taking out the P&L from direct sight was immensely helpful in taking trades and not becoming emotional
I took several good trades based on signals

Not-so-good things about today:
Still got myself out of excellent trades due to ticks ticking down and such other nonsense. Solid interpretation of the market, near-ideal entry points, yet still moved my stops!!! cost me around 8 points.
Altered my rules last evening, which caused me to overtrade today and take many false signals. Instead of using the signals to get me out of trades, I used the signals to go short, against the trend, which I said I would not do, and I did, again and again, until the very end.

However, I still believe the plan can be salvaged, with less information input and NOT TRADING AGAINST THE TREND, geez. How many times do I have to learn this lesson? One issue that continues to be difficult is judging a deep pullback vs. trendchange.

Here are my rules:
1. A trend is defined on the 5000tck chart ONLY!
2. An up trend is defined as lows above a 50 MA channel
3. A down trend is defined as highs under a 50 MA channel
4. Consolidation is defined as rotation about the channel
5. A short can be taken on the pullback on a 2000tck chart
--a pullback is based on visual inspection of the price action. Ideally there would also be a zigzag line indicating a swing low/high in this location. Sometimes, the zigzag line moves, fine. Take your lumps. (A TREND IS DEFINED ON THE 5000TCK CHART!)

6. A long can be taken on the pullback on a 2000tck chart
(I continue to struggle with how deep of a pullback to use)
7. Stop is set at -5 points. If it breaks 5 points, it means I misinterpreted the trend. Fine, take your lumps. Don't move your stop closer to entry. Let it stop you out. Next time, interpret the trend more accurately. Don't move your fuckin' stop!
8. Target reduced to 10pts a day, ideal 2 trades of 5 points. On a clean trend, I can move a stop to +5points and let it ride to 10.
9. Trading is done at 10 points won or 10 points lost.
10. Be more right more often than you are wrong. Don't try to play with the big boys when you're a small fry.

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 lovetotrade 
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Sorry you had a bad day, try to forget about this week and start fresh on Monday. One thing I would consider is trying to be a little more specific with your entries. If you could fine tune that, I feel like it would help a lot. Do you have a pre-defined exit before you enter the trade?

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 jackbravo 
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lovetotrade View Post
Sorry you had a bad day, try to forget about this week and start fresh on Monday. One thing I would consider is trying to be a little more specific with your entries. If you could fine tune that, I feel like it would help a lot. Do you have a pre-defined exit before you enter the trade?

Ah..yes, I forgot to about the zigzag line. I'll amend. thanks!


My exit is my point target. 5 points. I'm not skilled enough to read the chart for chart-based exits, as I have tried and failed this week. Based on my definition of a trend though, there's usually way more than 5 points available, so I hope that's sufficient.


Lovetotrade, wish you a good weekend, and appreciate your advice.

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Amend stop to -4points.
Let it ride begins only after reentry on a cross-recross of the 50MA channel border. First entry is always 5 points target (need to reliably recognize a melt-up day in order to add this exception).

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 jackbravo 
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I started reading Trading and Exchanges Market Microstructure. It's very interesting. A couple of things have crystallized already for me from the introduction.

According to the author, informed traders and speculators win money from less informed traders and gamblers. Given that my market knowledge is still in its infancy, and will be for a quite a while, it reinforces the fact that I just can't be a trader/act like a trader. The only real category I'm able to fit into is scalper, and the question is, can i be profitable as a scalper while I learn to be a trader? 4 tick scalps just do not fit into my personality type. I need something a bit more, so the question is, should I quit altogether or continue to refine my short-term trend following system? Most likely I won't quit (probably bad for my bank account - good thing I have a day job!). However, what this means is that I really need to adhere to guidelines that are favored by scalpers.

1. Profit taking is a must. Letting profits run is something I should NOT aspire to, and should only use in very specific situations.
2. Time in the market is essential. Need to decrease overall time in the market, which can be done a per trade basis or a decreased number of total trades
3. Timing of the market is essential. I have been focused only on direction. Yet, even when correct in direction, my timing has caused my relatively tight stops to trigger me out of trades.
4. Using intermarket relationships and other information used by traders only obfuscates my job as a scalper, as those are more intended for longer time frames than I am interested in.

Acting like a scalper while trying to be a trader has, I believe, contributed to the significant losses of this past week. That, as well my tendency to become emotional and gamble after several losing or otherwise frustrating trades. I'm going to keep these thoughts in mind this week.

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 sandptrader 
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jackbravo View Post
I started reading Trading and Exchanges Market Microstructure. It's very interesting. A couple of things have crystallized already for me from the introduction.

According to the author, informed traders and speculators win money from less informed traders and gamblers. Given that my market knowledge is still in its infancy, and will be for a quite a while, it reinforces the fact that I just can't be a trader/act like a trader. The only real category I'm able to fit into is scalper, and the question is, can i be profitable as a scalper while I learn to be a trader? 4 tick scalps just do not fit into my personality type. I need something a bit more, so the question is, should I quit altogether or continue to refine my short-term trend following system? Most likely I won't quit (probably bad for my bank account - good thing I have a day job!). However, what this means is that I really need to adhere to guidelines that are favored by scalpers.

1. Profit taking is a must. Letting profits run is not something I should NOT aspire to, and should only use in very specific situations.
2. Time in the market is essential. Need to decrease over time in the market, which can be done a per trade basis or a decreased number of total trades
3. Timing of the market is essential. I have been focused only on direction. Yet, even when correct in direction, my timing has caused my relatively tight stops to trigger me out of trades.
4. Using intermarket relationships and other information used by traders only obfuscates my job as a scalper, as those are more intended for longer time frames than I am interested in.

Acting like a scalper while trying to be a trader has, I believe, contributed to the significant losses of this past week. That, as well my tendency to become emotional and gamble after several losing or otherwise frustrating trades. I'm going to keep these thoughts in mind this week.

i see you are working at refining your Trading Rules, also working on all other aspects of trading such as Emotions, Entries, Exits, Stops....it is not an easy task getting everything worked out.
I wanted to ask what size Charts you are watching while you Trade...i have seen 15 minute in your thread , but i have not seen every post.
If you want to try and improve your short term trading system...it might help you to test out Multiple time frame, or Size Charts side by side, so as to get a Better view of what is going on.
I Normally am watching at least 2 Charts per Market....one is showing larger Intraday Swings, and the other is smaller, as to get a Better Entry....once i get in i am manageing the trade.....the idea then is to get the most out of what the larger chart is showing me.
Once you get this part figured out with the Charts, and feel comfortable with what you are seeing, you will start getting a bit more confident.
Have you tried any Renko type bars for your charting?

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 jackbravo 
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i see you are working at refining your Trading Rules, also working on all other aspects of trading such as Emotions, Entries, Exits, Stops....it is not an easy task getting everything worked out.
I wanted to ask what size Charts you are watching while you Trade...i have seen 15 minute in your thread , but i have not seen every post.
If you want to try and improve your short term trading system...it might help you to test out Multiple time frame, or Size Charts side by side, so as to get a Better view of what is going on.
I Normally am watching at least 2 Charts per Market....one is showing larger Intraday Swings, and the other is smaller, as to get a Better Entry....once i get in i am manageing the trade.....the idea then is to get the most out of what the larger chart is showing me.
Once you get this part figured out with the Charts, and feel comfortable with what you are seeing, you will start getting a bit more confident.
Have you tried any Renko type bars for your charting?

I just started using Renko 2.5, but still not accustomed to it.

I watch the 2000tck and 5000tck charts, 40500tck, 15min, 45min, 135min. I also keep an eye out on 2 min and 5 min charts, 500tck, but find these shorter time frames get me in trouble with what I'm aiming for, so I'm cutting them out.

EDIT: This is the main tab I trade off:


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 sandptrader 
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I just started using Renko 2.5, but still not accustomed to it. It looks like it's a bit longer than the 15 min.

I watch the 2000tck and 5000tck charts, 40500tck, 15min, 45min, 135min. I also keep an eye out on 2 min and 5 min charts, 500tck, but find these shorter time frames get me in trouble with what I'm aiming for, so I'm cutting them out.

EDIT: This is the main tab I trade off:


I see what you are watching there...and you are using Tradestation.....i am using Ninjatrader.
I have not used Tradestation , but i know back just before 2000 they had the Trading platform everyone wanted, as they were coming out with Automated Trading.
Anyway...even though we are using two different platforms...i am going to show you what i mainly watch, as far as Charts.
First Chart is the Larger one, and Second smaller for Entries...both are using same Indicators.
These are Renko Type Bars....This might help you, or it may not....you might could find some Indicators similar on Tradstation....but for me it is easier to find Entries this way.

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 jackbravo 
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thanks for sharing your charts. I appreciate it. I'll have a look at them and figure out how betterRenko is different from Renko.

edit: looks like that renko matches closes to a 2.2-2.4 Renko in tradestation. hard to tell.

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 sandptrader 
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thanks for sharing your charts. I appreciate it. I'll have a look at them and figure out how betterRenko is different from Renko.

Your First 2 Charts are similar Ratio to what i posted....i think if you could find a Good Cycle Indicator to add it might help...something showing Overbought/Oversold Zones...
What is that Flowing through the Chart...looks like a street ....Price is bouncing off of it Nicely in the 5000 Tick chart.

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 Zxeses 
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I see what you are watching there...and you are using Tradestation.....i am using Ninjatrader.
I have not used Tradestation , but i know back just before 2000 they had the Trading platform everyone wanted, as they were coming out with Automated Trading.
Anyway...even though we are using two different platforms...i am going to show you what i mainly watch, as far as Charts.
First Chart is the Larger one, and Second smaller for Entries...both are using same Indicators.
These are Renko Type Bars....This might help you, or it may not....you might could find some Indicators similar on Tradstation....but for me it is easier to find Entries this way.

What is that indicator at the bottom, it looks like a colored stochastic or macd, but nice and smooth!

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 jackbravo 
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What is that indicator at the bottom, it looks like a colored stochastic or macd, but nice and smooth!

i think it's a macd.

i've tried using an RSI-2 for overbought/sold levels at 90/10. i'm not experienced at interpreting it, though watching many youtube videos and reading articles has helped. I took it out because I felt it took my focus away from the main object of hopping on the trend. My goal also is not to maximize my profits, but to be profitable. I tried running the trend last week and got killed, because i'm not just skilled enough to read the charts.

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 jackbravo 
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What is that Flowing through the Chart...looks like a street ....Price is bouncing off of it Nicely in the 5000 Tick chart.

I'ts my river of gold, and what I keep ignoring. sheesh. it's 50 triangular ma channel.

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 sandptrader 
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What is that indicator at the bottom, it looks like a colored stochastic or macd, but nice and smooth!

It is a Stochastic ...

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 jackbravo 
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10/27

Completely chopped up in this range day. Though I did follow more of my plan (not all!) and tried to go in at pullbacks, there was not enough continuation, and i'd get stopped out. ALso, A couple of times what looked like a pullback was just a consolidation in a reverse trend. If I had followed all my rules, I wouldv'e only taken one trade with stop in those islands, rather than 3 or 4 trades per island of consolidation.

The Renko chart is interesting. Given no range today, it hardly moved. Interesting, thanks @sandptrader!

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 sandptrader 
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10/27

Completely chopped up in this no-range day. Though I did follow more of my plan (not all!) and tried to go in at pullbacks, there was not enough continuation, and i'd get stopped out. ALso, A couple of times what looked like a pullback was just a consolidation in a reverse trend. If I had followed all my rules, I wouldv'e only taken one trade with stop in those islands, rather than 3 or 4 trades per island of consolidation.

The Renko chart is interesting. Given no range today, it hardly moved. Interesting, thanks @sandptrader!

I had only one trade since last night, but it was in CL...held it overnight with stop & target in place...went to sleep after our posts.....i wake up around 6am and target hit for +29 ticks on 2 contracts....had to leave for town just after 10am, and arrive back about 2:50 pm ...just been reading since then.
The Renko chart you were watching...what size was the bar?....not much movement on ES compared to last days.

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I had only one trade since last night, but it was in CL...held it overnight with stop & target in place...went to sleep after our posts.....i wake up around 6am and target hit for +29 ticks on 2 contracts....had to leave for town just after 10am, and arrive back about 2:50 pm ...just been reading since then.
The Renko chart you were watching...what size was the bar?....not much movement on ES compared to last days.

Renko 2 with the overlay


nice job with the CL trade. CL scares me.

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 sandptrader 
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Renko 2 with the overlay

Is there anyway you could post it ...i wanted to see what it looks like on TradeStation platform ?

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 jackbravo 
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Is there anyway you could post it ...i wanted to see what it looks like on TradeStation platform ?

lol, just edited my post.

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 sandptrader 
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jackbravo View Post
Renko 2 with the overlay


nice job with the CL trade. CL scares me.

I see what you mean with not much movement....it says size 2, but looks more like 7 or 8 on my platform...btw this as regular Renko bar, and not BetterRenko as i think it is more like yours.
I think between your 2, and what i see here on my platform, it is close to size 7 Renko bar.
I am not sure on TradeStation for Renko size....but size 2 on TradeStation is way bigger then on Ninjatrader....is that all the selection you have for Renko is size 2?

Wait...i think i am looking at your chart wrong...is the vertical green line 5 pm ?
i see now....sorry wait i will post a 2 size....i think after looking really close on your chart ...that green line is the open ?
I must be tired...only had 3 hours sleep......i see we are on diff time zones...i edit with size 8 Renko chart...looks closer, but not the same.

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 jackbravo 
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sandptrader View Post
I see what you mean with not much movement....it says size 2, but looks more like 7 or 8 on my platform...btw this as regular Renko bar, and not BetterRenko as i think it is more like yours.
I think between your 2, and what i see here on my platform, it is close to size 7 Renko bar.
I am not sure on TradeStation for Renko size....but size 2 on TradeStation is way bigger then on Ninjatrader....is that all the selection you have for Renko is size 2?

Wait...i think i am looking at your chart wrong...is the vertical green line 5 pm ?
i see now....sorry wait i will post a 2 size....i think after looking really close on your chart ...that green line is the open ?

Yea, the green is (near) the open at 830a. I'll mess around the settings to see if I can get it to match yours.



I think this is a close match, renko 1.7.

I missed that nice long downtrend from the top overnight, as it was still defined as an uptrend on my 5000tck chart, and I'm trying to stick with my rules and not take countertrend trades. sheesh. can't win.

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 sandptrader 
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jackbravo View Post
Yea, the green is (near) the open at 830a. I'll mess around the settings to see if I can get it to match yours.



I think this is a close match, renko 1.7.

I missed that nice long downtrend from the top overnight, as it was still defined as an uptrend on my 5000tck chart, and I'm trying to stick with my rules and not take countertrend trades. sheesh. can't win.

yea...it is going to look like that with larger size charts...... i see now how that TradeStation does with the Number size for Renko.
Your Stochastic looks Good as it Signaled the Top, and Bottom...i do not rely on just one thing like an Indicator, but that would have been good trades.
You are right to stick to what you have seen that works...like Trading with trend.

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 sandptrader 
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Try size 1.5 to see if you get more movement, as in Tradeable movement...that might show you some more set ups that you may have Entered...in any case it should be smaller than what you posted.

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 jackbravo 
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sandptrader View Post
Try size 1.5 to see if you get more movement, as in Tradeable movement...that might show you some more set ups that you may have Entered...in any case it should be smaller than what you posted.

ok, i'll take it down some more.
i may need to revisit my rules, now with this renko chart.
this is 1.5. I'll keep messing with it.



thanks again for your help. i feel like what i want to do with the trend and what i am actually doing don't match. i'm not able to match trading the trend in real time with what it looks like in hindsight. the renko chart though seems like it's going to help a lot. need to watch it.

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 sandptrader 
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jackbravo View Post
ok, i'll take it down some more.
i may need to revisit my rules, now with this renko chart.

if the Renko charts do not turn out to help you after you explore them a bit, just continue to try , to focus on your rules, and what type Charts you feel comfortable with.
usually when i find something new i will work it over inside , and out trying to see if it will help me before moving on...i just will not rely on it in Live trading till i see it helps.

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 jackbravo 
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sandptrader View Post
if the Renko charts do not turn out to help you after you explore them a bit, just continue to try , to focus on your rules, and what type Charts you feel comfortable with.
usually when i find something new i will work it over inside , and out trying to see if it will help me before moving on...i just will not rely on it in Live trading till i see it helps.

I've been watching the Renko chart all night. I like it. When going back over yesterday's trades, it would've kept me out of at least 4 countertrend trades, which I thought at the time were with trend trades. I'm redefining my trend as follows:

Consecutive lows over 21EMA on 15min = uptrend
Consecutive highs under 21EMA on 15min = downtrend
Pullbacks can be taken only if Renko shows the trend is persistent.

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 jackbravo 
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10/28

Well, only down 8 or points today. Yeesh. Got chopped up again at the beginning, trying to go in and out lduring the morning chop. Finally when the thing cleared the 15min 21EMA, I bought it again and let it sit. Had to go to bed because I worked last night, so I put my target over the tops of the most recent daybars, hoping stops would get run, and got a 12pt run when I woke up. The renko is great for keeping me in the trend, but not so good with the chop. I missed another good trend last night that I had gotten in on the bottom of, but got out quick due to being scared (that's what happens when your account is down 40%!) instead of looking at the Renko. The Renko would've kept me in it for 10 points.

I like these new rules, and I really like the Renko. Many thanks go out to you sandptrader!! Now, I just have to make sure I stay out of chop.

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 sandptrader 
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jackbravo View Post
10/28

Well, only down 8 or points today. Yeesh. Got chopped up again at the beginning, trying to go in and out lduring the morning chop. Finally when the thing cleared the 15min 21EMA, I bought it again and let it sit. Had to go to bed because I worked last night, so I put my target over the tops of the most recent daybars, hoping stops would get run, and got a 12pt run when I woke up. The renko is great for keeping me in the trend, but not so good with the chop. I missed another good trend last night that I had gotten in on the bottom of, but got out quick due to being scared (that's what happens when your account is down 40%!) instead of looking at the Renko. The Renko would've kept me in it for 10 points.

I like these new rules, and I really like the Renko. Many thanks go out to you sandptrader!! Now, I just have to make sure I stay out of chop.

I am Really Happy that the Renko Type bars have helped you....actually just hearing that one of the Traders here at futures.io (formerly BMT) had a Good day...also makes me feel Good.
I would recommend to check out @mfbreakout over in the COMMON SENSE thread...and @tigertrader, and @Big Mike over in the ES SP500 Spoo-nalysis thread....i do believe they had a Great day....and they are Very Good Traders...you can learn from how they trade.....you might want to keep an eye out on those threads since you are trying to improve your Trading....and there are other very Good traders here...just keep looking at the threads.
if you keep working with the Renko bars and get a few Size Renko Charts to monitor......like from small , Medium, Larger Specifically for the Intraday Swings...it could help you no matter if the market is choppy, as the smaller one could still help you with Entry into a Larger Trend......that is where the Money is, if you can get in a Good Position
You will have no problem getting the 5 points as i read you state in a post.....that is 20 Ticks or $250 per Contract.
But no matter what Types of Charts you end up using for your Analysis....keep working on your Trading Rules, Emotions....Set ups, ....what ever gives you an Edge in your Trading.
I think most everyone continues to try and improve their performance, and System....i believe it is an on going journey.

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 jackbravo 
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sandptrader View Post
I am Really Happy that the Renko Type bars have helped you....actually just hearing that one of the Traders here at futures.io (formerly BMT) had a Good day...also makes me feel Good.
I would recommend to check out @mfbreakout over in the COMMON SENSE thread...and @tigertrader, and @Big Mike over in the ES SP500 Spoo-nalysis thread....i do believe they had a Great day....and they are Very Good Traders...you can learn from how they trade.....you might want to keep an eye out on those threads since you are trying to improve your Trading....and there are other very Good traders here...just keep looking at the threads.
if you keep working with the Renko bars and get a few Size Renko Charts to monitor......like from small , Medium, Larger Specifically for the Intraday Swings...it could help you no matter if the market is choppy, as the smaller one could still help you with Entry into a Larger Trend......that is where the Money is, if you can get in a Good Position
You will have no problem getting the 5 points as i read you state in a post.....that is 20 Ticks or $250 per Contract.
But no matter what Types of Charts you end up using for your Analysis....keep working on your Trading Rules, Emotions....Set ups, ....what ever gives you an Edge in your Trading.
I think most everyone continues to try and improve their performance, and System....i believe it is an on going journey.

Thanks man. I've been reading the Spoo-nalysis thread, but it trips me out during the live trading. So I've tried very hard not to look at it while I'm trading. Trying to trade like them kills me because I just don't have their balls to sit through all the price action they're willing to sit through. But I'm trying! I really like to visit the thread to understand how they approach the market, what they look at it, how they analyze things. It's a great great learning tool, and I'll probably join the Elite just to support this site and those types of threads on here.

Appreciate your advice, and I'll experiment with the smaller Renkos and check out the Common Sense thread. Thanks again!



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 tigertrader 
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@jackbravo: and all other aspiring new traders...

i'm not sure if you caught this, but i wrote the following for my thread. it's some common mistakes that i see people making on a regular basis. it is by no means a complete list; but nevertheless, i see traders make these errors on a daily basis. i hope these will help you.

1) having an opinion or bias
- the problem with having a directional bias is most people have trouble admitting they're wrong. even if they are disciplined enough to get out of a losing trade. they have difficulty getting on the right side of the market, because the market is not doing what they expected

2) waiting for the perfect set-up or cherry picking - every now and then the perfect set-up is served up on a silver platter; one can initiate a trade and take little to no heat on it, and even enjoy a linear path with great persistence. however, most of the time, the mistress can be beguiling and fickle; and if one always waits for the perfect moment before they approach her, they will miss out on what she has to offer, 80% of the time.

3) risking a point- one gets in a trade, it goes against them 1 point, and they assume they're wrong and get out of the trade. in a market with an atr between 3-5, how does a random move of 4 ticks, mean anything one-way-or-another?

4)bullish/bearish on a slight uptick/ downtick - the market ticks up and people get bullish, the market ticks down a tick or two and they get bearish; changing their mind as often as the market changes.

5) making excuses to trade, or not to trade- rationalization, intellectualization; i hear something new everyday. i didn't take the trade because of this, i got out of the trade, because of that. whatever the situation, the excuse is always predicated on making the trader feel better and always to the detriment of his profitability and growth.

6) not listening to the market
- there is a certain aspect to trading that is visceral and grounded in ones implicit understanding of price action. the only way one can develop this attribute is to be in the market. one can look at all the charts and data in the world, but they will not be of any help without the markets insights and input. there is no substitute for the feedback one receives when they are in the market and trading.

that being said, i'm don't know if you are trading a live account or not; but, if you are, i think you need to take a step back, for a couple of reasons. 1) once you are trading scared (worried about the money) the game is over. you may not realize it yet, because there is still money in your account, but it's over. 2) you need to learn, before you earn. there is no need for you to rush into trading live. i would wait until you have a better understanding of the market, methodology, money/trade/ risk management and yourself.

all things being equal, the type of bars you use for your charts is inconsequential, and has nothing to do with giving you a better understanding of the market, nor does it provide any real edge. i use ohlc bars and i do fine with them, but it has nothing to do with my ability to stay in trades. if you are comfortable with renko bars, that's o.k., but don't think that their use will give you an advantage.

trading is like any performance based endeavor; you have to begin by learning the CORRECT fundamentals, and then it takes hours upon hours (even years) of deliberate practice, just to attain competency. it involves a lot of trial and error, and along the way, one must battle with frustration, stress, cognitive overload, etc. if you rush into trading live, you will inevitably develop bad habits that will inhibit any and all of your efforts. the result is you will have to tear it all down and start all over again, and you will have to recapitalize over and over again.

take your time and don't rush into trading live. you can also choose to try to show everybody how much faith you have in your own abilities, or you can use the forum to learn from others who have actually been successful. if you really want to learn, find ways to assess information systematically and surround yourself with experienced, knowledgeable, and proven people, who will challenge your opinions; even when they tell you something you don't want to hear. BUT LEARN FIRST!!!

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 jackbravo 
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@tigertrader - thank you for stopping by the thread and your input, as always, is much appreciated.


tigertrader View Post
@jackbravo: and all other aspiring new traders...

i'm not sure if you caught this, but i wrote the following for my thread. it's some common mistakes that i see people making on a regular basis. it is by no means a complete list; but nevertheless, i see traders make these errors on a daily basis. i hope these will help you.

I did read this information in your thread, and have experienced and continuously experience these mistakes.


tigertrader View Post
1) having an opinion or bias- the problem with having a directional bias is most people have trouble admitting they're wrong. even if they are disciplined enough to get out of a losing trade. they have difficulty getting on the right side of the market, because the market is not doing what they expected.

I am unable to not have a bias in the market. Yet, I am now trying very hard to completely ignore that bias by focusing on the chart alone.


tigertrader View Post
2) waiting for the perfect set-up or cherry picking - every now and then the perfect set-up is served up on a silver platter; one can initiate a trade and take little to no heat on it, and even enjoy a linear path with great persistence. however, most of the time, the mistress can be beguiling and fickle; and if one always waits for the perfect moment before they approach her, they will miss out on what she has to offer, 80% of the time.

Luckily, I do not face this problem. My problem is the opposite.


tigertrader View Post
3) risking a point- one gets in a trade, it goes against them 1 point, and they assume they're wrong and get out of the trade. in a market with an atr between 3-5, how does a random move of 4 ticks, mean anything one-way-or-another?

I have noticed that if the market moves more than 5 points, usually, there is a (possibly temporary) change in sentiment. I started out with that stop equaling 2.5% risk in my account. However, I have gradually tightened it up due to dwindling funds, and heightened anxiety - which I have found had the reverse of my intended effect. I did take your previous advice in your thread, and widened it back out to 4 points. However, I still feel it's a very arbitrary way of placing a stop. Ideally, I would like to trade without stops, but exit trades based on my interpretation of market structure and change in sentiment. I know it will take a lot of education and capitalization though before I can implement a more optimal technique.


tigertrader View Post
4)bullish/bearish on a slight uptick/ downtick - the market ticks up and people get bullish, the market ticks down a tick or two and they get bearish; changing their mind as often as the market changes.

This issue is a continous struggle, and I am hoping the implementation of the Renko bars will allow to keep the overall sentiment in focus.


tigertrader View Post
5) making excuses to trade, or not to trade- rationalization, intellectualization; i hear something new everyday. i didn't take the trade because of this, i got out of the trade, because of that. whatever the situation, the excuse is always predicated on making the trader feel better and always to the detriment of his profitability and growth.

This issue is very difficult to tackle in my current frame of reference. I am addressing using rules to help me understand market sentiment, yet I am unable to stay in a trade for an extended period of time, though the market sentiment has obviously not changed. I think not being a losing trader would change my frame of reference, and that will take some time. But I do aspire to trade ideally, rather than scalp (which is my current process).


tigertrader View Post
6) not listening to the market- there is a certain aspect to trading that is visceral and grounded in ones implicit understanding of price action. the only way one can develop this attribute is to be in the market. one can look at all the charts and data in the world, but they will not be of any help without the markets insights and input. there is no substitute for the feedback one receives when they are in the market and trading.

I know this will take the most time to develop, yet I prize this ability above all others. The market is fascinating to watch, in its response to outside events, as well as to itself. Being able to feel it correctly, in my opinion, is more important than understanding it. Currently, I feel it incorrectly.


tigertrader View Post
that being said, i'm don't know if you are trading a live account or not; but, if you are, i think you need to take a step back, for a couple of reasons. 1) once you are trading scared (worried about the money) the game is over. you may not realize it yet, because there is still money in your account, but it's over. 2) you need to learn, before you earn. there is no need for you to rush into trading live. i would wait until you have a better understanding of the market, methodology, money/trade/ risk management and yourself.

This advice weighs heavily on me. It makes sense intellectually, but I am unable to switch away from live trading. A big reason is that I can't leave while having sustained a loss, though knowing there's a high likelihood that the loss will be more severe if I continue on the current path. I am attempting to address my emotional reactions with additional insight from Steenbarger's books (thanks @josh !).

I did SIM trade previously, and yet, have found a huge benefit (and detriment) to live trading. It has accelerated my learning, and has brought into light many issues which were not apparent during SIM trading. Additionally, I have found that my passion and motivation for understanding the market has markedly increased. Lessons that I have learned and continue to learn seem to last due to their associated emotional response. Despite the obvious financial setback, live trading has been the single most driving force for continued learning for me. At this point, it's very difficult (yet likely imprudent) for me to abondon it. I will however keep your advice in mind.


tigertrader View Post
all things being equal, the type of bars you use for your charts is inconsequential, and has nothing to do with giving you a better understanding of the market, nor does it provide any real edge. i use ohlc bars and i do fine with them, but it has nothing to do with my ability to stay in trades. if you are comfortable with renko bars, that's o.k., but don't think that their use will give you an advantage.

trading is like any performance based endeavor; you have to begin by learning the CORRECT fundamentals, and then it takes hours upon hours (even years) of deliberate practice, just to attain competency. it involves a lot of trial and error, and along the way, one must battle with frustration, stress, cognitive overload, etc. if you rush into trading live, you will inevitably develop bad habits that will inhibit any and all of your efforts. the result is you will have to tear it all down and start all over again, and you will have to recapitalize over and over again.

take your time and don't rush into trading live. you can also choose to try to show everybody how much faith you have in your own abilities, or you can use the forum to learn from others who have actually been successful. if you really want to learn, find ways to assess information systematically and surround yourself with experienced, knowledgeable, and proven people, who will challenge your opinions; even when they tell you something you don't want to hear. BUT LEARN FIRST!!!

I do very much appreciate your insight, and strive to better myself through cognitive reprogramming. I hope that this journal doesn't come across as one where I am attempting to prove anything to anybody other than myself, though I hope to receive feedback on obvious errors that I may not be noticing. Being in the Chicago area, it seems I should be able to find expertise readily available. I am very wary of charlatans however. The cognitive and emotional overload I am experiencing, I have previously experienced in training for my current day job. In fact, I recall vividly the first two years of my training, I wasn't sleeping well, was tired all the time, couldn't think straight, etc., and I am reliving those scenarios at the present time. Luckily, I learn quickly from experience, so it's much less stressful this time around. Part of me actually enjoys it, strangely enough.

I know my current approach is blunt and pedestration. All I need it to do is keep me funded so I can continue to trade live, and learn. Maybe that's a paradoxical goal. That being said, my plan of attack in learning the fundamentals is the following:

A) Market Structure
-cyclical and fractional patterns
-price action
-correlations
-driving forces:
--carry trades
--macroeconomic effects
--policy effects
--acts of God/panic of man
B) Order Flow analytics
-institutional buying and selling
-aggregrate buying and selling as a proxy to general market sentiment
C) Discover what I don't know I don't know


Many thanks again for stopping by the thread, and for your insight. I don't expect you or anybody to read the diatribe above; it's more for clarification of my own thoughts. I will continue to follow your thread, and aim to extract as much information as possible from it, as well as from the experience of those on this site.

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 lovetotrade 
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Hey @jackbravo maybe you could consider trading live only one day a week. Maybe Fridays would be a good day. Consider this.

Monday through Thursday you trade the sim account just as if you were trading live. After practicing all week, you go live on Friday to test your prior week skills.

Thinking there could be some good benefits:

You spend your week practicing in a lower stress environment, but still focused on producing results.

The fact that you only get to trade live one day should force you to be as productive as possible during the week.

You would have one full week between each live trading day to forget about any negative experience from losses, or euphoria from a good day.

Your losses would not be a daily event that is accelerating your accounts' demise, and will ultimately wear on your psyche, and possibly cause revenge trading.

I believe that one day, even if it is a loss, could really help you laser focus on the weaknesses in your trading, and accelerate your learning curve.


One last note, I wish I would have thought about this when I was learning lol. Keep at it man.

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 jackbravo 
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@lovetotrade - that's a great idea, man.

10/29

Well, got a few good trades in that didn't workout. Good...according to my plan. Went long this morning before market open, it got up to the 80s but not quite high enough before it came back down. I was fine with losing some points there. What I wasn't fine with though was trying to do the same thing 2-3 more times and getting knocked out repeatedly. Obviously, it wasn't going anywhere, and I didn't sync with that.

Got in short at 75.75 in mid-morning, but couldn't watch it because I had to go to sleep. Instead of setting my stop and profit targets, and going to sleep, i jumped out of a good trade after some heat. Bad bad. Need more trust in the system.

I also started playing around with ATR, since it's received a couple of mentions by a couple of different people. I've decided to put my stops at 2 ATR on the 15min, which is around 4-5points. Previously I was putting stops at 2 ATR on the 2000tck chart, which was closer to 3 points, and I'd keep getting stopped out. That being said, it's very important that I come in at the beginnning of the trend. I've also mapped out 3 and 4 ATRs, and have noticed that price rarely gets over 4 ATRs (sometimes it does though). This will help remind me not to chase those spikes when I see them hit 4 ATRs. All in all, there's been some minimal incremental progress today (I think).

Overall lost about 5.25pts. The bleeding seems to be slowly reducing.

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 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
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10/30

I find these correlations interesting, though not sure how useful in the immediate trades.



looked at gold, saw a symmetric triangle break, set too tight a stop as usual, got stopped out right before it went down. i'm such a bastard



Next massive mistake. Got this gift during the night, hit my rules, perfect set up, but instead of taking it. I decided to go the OPPOSITE way ! What the flip?? What would've been a 10pt run turned into a 4point loss. It's like something occurs in my brain during live trading that completely reverses any logic I might have




Well, I probably got 12 or 13 points out of this gorgeous day, which sucks because I"m still down 8 points or so from this morning's shenanigans and a crap-ton of commission. What's interesting is I put on the same trade in Sim, and I"m up 20 points in the SIM - because I DIDN"T MESS WITH IT, rather than jumping in and out all the time, which cost me the difference. That's the difference between SIM and Live for me...there's just some risk that is much more difficult to take live trading, when intellectually, I know that risk is small. If I had my wits about me, today was millimeters away from a +30 day. What do they say...a small difference in ability leads to huge differences in performance?

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 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
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Broker: Stage 5
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10/31

A sweetheart of a run in the ES, which I totally missed out on since account's dropped under the initial margin requirement. Serves me right. I think the Japanese and Europeans like to run US stops in the middle of the night.



I did pick up about 45 pips or whatever you call them in the euro futures, which covered most of yesterday's shenanigans.

man, somebody's really serious about making an all time high in the middle of the night. bet the americans hate that shit. interesting to see Gold's reaction compared to Euro, probably it's a better bang for the buck for the same trade setups (but scarier).


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 Sazon 
Roswell, GA
 
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All is not lost. I posted this in another thread which I think you will find beneficial. Forex allows you to drop your risk as low as possible while also providing the benefits of leverage similar to futures. It's really of question of which camp do you want to be in - i.e., the forex camp with a 40% chance of success or the futures daytrading camp with a 5% - 10% chance of success.




Sazon View Post
I concur with calitrader. You are relentless in your genuine caring for the other members on this site. Here is something that I thought you might also be interested in:

Exclusive: Q4 US Retail Forex Profitability Report, IB #1 Again while OANDA Slipping - Forex MagnatesForex Magnates

According to the report, over 40% of IB's customers were profitable trading forex going back several years. I can attest to this myself personally. It "feels" as if forex trading is easier than futures trading and I think that these numbers back it up. I think you would be hard pressed to find a futures broker that can provide similar statistics.

This is my effort to give you something to think about and sort of return the favor for all of your contributions here.

I will say if you decide to take a look at forex trading, you should focus on timeframes larger than 2 hours.

Edit: I'm assuming that futures daytrading has around a 5% - 10% chance of success. We have no precise way of knowing short of access to the actual accounts from futures brokers. However, I don't think that there are many people here who would argue with my assumption.

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 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
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Sazon View Post
All is not lost. I posted this in another thread which I think you will find beneficial. Forex allows you to drop your risk as low as possible while also providing the benefits of leverage similar to futures. It's really of question of which camp do you want to be in - i.e., the forex camp with a 40% chance of success or the futures daytrading camp with a 5% - 10% chance of success.


Edit: I'm assuming that futures daytrading has around a 5% - 10% chance of success. We have no precise way of knowing short of access to the actual accounts from futures brokers. However, I don't think that there are many people here who would argue with my assumption.

It's funny you say that. i've experience similar. here's my activies from this evening for example.




For whatever reason though, I don't trust forex. It's so jumpy, though not as much as gold.

As an aside, I put on the same trades on SIM



I've made about 400% more on the SIM trades. This reaffirms the need to trade live for me. I think I'm a very emotional trader, which I didn't expect. And it ends up playing a huge role in my profitability. Nervousness, anxiety, jumping the gun, jumping in and out...all driven by emotion. Here are the main differences in my style of SIM vs. live trading. In SIM:

1. I don't use money stops, because I'm not emotionally invested. Instead, if it looks like trade has been on the losing side for a while, I manually exit it. So, really, I'm using a time stop.
2. I don't micromanage SIM trades. I'm much more willing to let them ride, instead of trying to guess what the market is doing.
3. I have 100k in my SIM account, so if I lose a couple of grand, it doesn't phase me, and I'm not worried about every little tick. The result is that I allow myself to be profitable.

In order for me to trade like I do in SIM, I need:
A] Better capitalization
B] No using stops, and not freaking out about losing money. If I have a correct read on the market, it'll go my way. If I don't, I should know it.
c] No micromanaging the trade. Take profits at the end of the day or if it looks like there's been major trend shifts.

However, I do not believe I have the capacity to implement those changes. Definitely not A. Maybe B (testing it out right now). C will be very very hard, since I'm not confident that I know when a major change has occurred. And isn't it better to go along with ups and downs of a trend then just sit through the main trend? I think it would take skill which I don't have yet.

work in progress.....


Alright, this is my experiment for the day. I went short gold at 1167.50. It's been falling all night, all day, all week, so I'm going with the trend. I'm not using money stops. only a mental time stop if things have been going against me for a while (undefined). I put a profit at 46.10. Not sure if it will/can get there today since it's already dropped about 40 handles, and I don't really know what the range is for the thing. However, it's still early in the day, the Yen is still skyrocketing, so I think the danger here of a trend change is minimal. It would have to jump back up > 1200 to do any substantial damage. Given the circumstances, I think that it's unlikely, hence the no-stop trade. Hopefully, I"m not completely wrong.



-------------------------------------

well, i'm not sure how successful the experiment was. i did get out at the double bottom today and didn't get stopped out, so i guess that's good. Didn't have the balls to reverse off the bottom though. Just couldn't take an antitrend trade with only double bottom as support, yet that was the correct trade as TigerTrader mentioned. Fear will never make me a good trader!


No ES trading today for me. This is what my chart looked like:



I know on days like this, I'm just going to get myself chopped up.

NET for the month: -43% of account, including fees and commissions. Wowza, that was a brutal month, though not unexpected. Something happened this week though, just last couple of days really. A light bulb turned on in my dim skull. We'll see. Starting a new journal for Movember, hope ya'll got your 'staches ready!

Thanks for those who have read this thread and given me excellent and sage advice. Happy Halloween to everybody.

New Journal:

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