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Learning the ES


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Updated October 31st 2014 by jackbravo
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Learning the ES

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  #81 (permalink)
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: ES, 6E, sometimes NQ, and occasionally CL
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,334 since Jun 2014
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10/30

I find these correlations interesting, though not sure how useful in the immediate trades.



looked at gold, saw a symmetric triangle break, set too tight a stop as usual, got stopped out right before it went down. i'm such a bastard



Next massive mistake. Got this gift during the night, hit my rules, perfect set up, but instead of taking it. I decided to go the OPPOSITE way ! What the flip?? What would've been a 10pt run turned into a 4point loss. It's like something occurs in my brain during live trading that completely reverses any logic I might have




Well, I probably got 12 or 13 points out of this gorgeous day, which sucks because I"m still down 8 points or so from this morning's shenanigans and a crap-ton of commission. What's interesting is I put on the same trade in Sim, and I"m up 20 points in the SIM - because I DIDN"T MESS WITH IT, rather than jumping in and out all the time, which cost me the difference. That's the difference between SIM and Live for me...there's just some risk that is much more difficult to take live trading, when intellectually, I know that risk is small. If I had my wits about me, today was millimeters away from a +30 day. What do they say...a small difference in ability leads to huge differences in performance?

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  #82 (permalink)
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
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10/31

A sweetheart of a run in the ES, which I totally missed out on since account's dropped under the initial margin requirement. Serves me right. I think the Japanese and Europeans like to run US stops in the middle of the night.



I did pick up about 45 pips or whatever you call them in the euro futures, which covered most of yesterday's shenanigans.

man, somebody's really serious about making an all time high in the middle of the night. bet the americans hate that shit. interesting to see Gold's reaction compared to Euro, probably it's a better bang for the buck for the same trade setups (but scarier).


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  #83 (permalink)
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All is not lost. I posted this in another thread which I think you will find beneficial. Forex allows you to drop your risk as low as possible while also providing the benefits of leverage similar to futures. It's really of question of which camp do you want to be in - i.e., the forex camp with a 40% chance of success or the futures daytrading camp with a 5% - 10% chance of success.




Sazon View Post
I concur with calitrader. You are relentless in your genuine caring for the other members on this site. Here is something that I thought you might also be interested in:

Exclusive: Q4 US Retail Forex Profitability Report, IB #1 Again while OANDA Slipping - Forex MagnatesForex Magnates

According to the report, over 40% of IB's customers were profitable trading forex going back several years. I can attest to this myself personally. It "feels" as if forex trading is easier than futures trading and I think that these numbers back it up. I think you would be hard pressed to find a futures broker that can provide similar statistics.

This is my effort to give you something to think about and sort of return the favor for all of your contributions here.

I will say if you decide to take a look at forex trading, you should focus on timeframes larger than 2 hours.

Edit: I'm assuming that futures daytrading has around a 5% - 10% chance of success. We have no precise way of knowing short of access to the actual accounts from futures brokers. However, I don't think that there are many people here who would argue with my assumption.

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  #84 (permalink)
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
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jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,334 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,253 given, 2,379 received


Sazon View Post
All is not lost. I posted this in another thread which I think you will find beneficial. Forex allows you to drop your risk as low as possible while also providing the benefits of leverage similar to futures. It's really of question of which camp do you want to be in - i.e., the forex camp with a 40% chance of success or the futures daytrading camp with a 5% - 10% chance of success.


Edit: I'm assuming that futures daytrading has around a 5% - 10% chance of success. We have no precise way of knowing short of access to the actual accounts from futures brokers. However, I don't think that there are many people here who would argue with my assumption.

It's funny you say that. i've experience similar. here's my activies from this evening for example.




For whatever reason though, I don't trust forex. It's so jumpy, though not as much as gold.

As an aside, I put on the same trades on SIM



I've made about 400% more on the SIM trades. This reaffirms the need to trade live for me. I think I'm a very emotional trader, which I didn't expect. And it ends up playing a huge role in my profitability. Nervousness, anxiety, jumping the gun, jumping in and out...all driven by emotion. Here are the main differences in my style of SIM vs. live trading. In SIM:

1. I don't use money stops, because I'm not emotionally invested. Instead, if it looks like trade has been on the losing side for a while, I manually exit it. So, really, I'm using a time stop.
2. I don't micromanage SIM trades. I'm much more willing to let them ride, instead of trying to guess what the market is doing.
3. I have 100k in my SIM account, so if I lose a couple of grand, it doesn't phase me, and I'm not worried about every little tick. The result is that I allow myself to be profitable.

In order for me to trade like I do in SIM, I need:
A] Better capitalization
B] No using stops, and not freaking out about losing money. If I have a correct read on the market, it'll go my way. If I don't, I should know it.
c] No micromanaging the trade. Take profits at the end of the day or if it looks like there's been major trend shifts.

However, I do not believe I have the capacity to implement those changes. Definitely not A. Maybe B (testing it out right now). C will be very very hard, since I'm not confident that I know when a major change has occurred. And isn't it better to go along with ups and downs of a trend then just sit through the main trend? I think it would take skill which I don't have yet.

work in progress.....


Alright, this is my experiment for the day. I went short gold at 1167.50. It's been falling all night, all day, all week, so I'm going with the trend. I'm not using money stops. only a mental time stop if things have been going against me for a while (undefined). I put a profit at 46.10. Not sure if it will/can get there today since it's already dropped about 40 handles, and I don't really know what the range is for the thing. However, it's still early in the day, the Yen is still skyrocketing, so I think the danger here of a trend change is minimal. It would have to jump back up > 1200 to do any substantial damage. Given the circumstances, I think that it's unlikely, hence the no-stop trade. Hopefully, I"m not completely wrong.



-------------------------------------

well, i'm not sure how successful the experiment was. i did get out at the double bottom today and didn't get stopped out, so i guess that's good. Didn't have the balls to reverse off the bottom though. Just couldn't take an antitrend trade with only double bottom as support, yet that was the correct trade as TigerTrader mentioned. Fear will never make me a good trader!


No ES trading today for me. This is what my chart looked like:



I know on days like this, I'm just going to get myself chopped up.

NET for the month: -43% of account, including fees and commissions. Wowza, that was a brutal month, though not unexpected. Something happened this week though, just last couple of days really. A light bulb turned on in my dim skull. We'll see. Starting a new journal for Movember, hope ya'll got your 'staches ready!

Thanks for those who have read this thread and given me excellent and sage advice. Happy Halloween to everybody.

New Journal:

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