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Learning the ES
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Learning the ES

  #41 (permalink)
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10/22


Well, today is a new day. feeling bearish, but i'm always feeling bearish, even during this last 3 day rally, so i'm learning to ignore my bias.

I wanted to SELL this lower high at 37.75, but just don't have the balls pre open, since yesterday's close is 38.25. After I went in, I decided it was more prudent to stay out, so got out with 0.5 point. I'm going to wait until things develop a bit, also need to get the boys ready for school, make lunch, take the trash out, and other Mr. Mom duties, so I can't be here watching the screen.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


So much hope for the day. Got totally cut up and overtraded, especially during the earlier consolidation. Kept telling msyelf to wait, but just didn't. Got on the wrong side of the market the rest of the time. Other than 1 nice move.

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Tota:l -5.5pts


Last edited by jackbravo; October 22nd, 2014 at 05:42 PM.
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  #42 (permalink)
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10/23

Feeling Mixed today. Things still looking bearish:
Breadth
Bonds near support again

But there were some very strong buyers at 20.50 yesterday, the thing just leaped up once it hit again. Also, overnight, some strong buyers. So not really feeling any one direction today. Some resistance at the daily 50ema, which was near yesterday's high too. I guess we'll see where we go. I prefer having no bias anyway.

man , what a flippin day. got in early on the long trend, got stopped out a bunch of times due to tight stops .need to widen them back out to 5 points. didnt' get out in time even though in retrospect there were a bunch of sell signals, which I guess completely ignored in favor of an arbitrary target. I don't know how many times i've heard/read to pay attention to the market, not to your own bias. i'm cognitive that's what i need to do, but apparently i am having a difficult time with implemtation. must be some sort of pathology. i tried to trade the crash, which was not good. i tried to trade the evening hours, which was not good since i was trading scared. not sure why i do that, but i do. Total today: -18pts. It's going to take a minimum of a week to get that back, if i'm perfect. (i don't know what happened to my IB chart, doesn't have the arrows anymore, just some lines. hard to tell where i took the trades, so not posting the chart).

Selling signals missed at 56, that all occurred at the same time, with plenty of time to get out:
1. Forum consensus: unfortunately, I am a contrarian by nature, so it's almost like I read what other people are doing and do the exact opposite instead of following along with 100 years of trading experience. I should consider not visiting the thread anymore.
2. *5* consecutive bars of high volume and shortened range on the 5000tck chart. As this was not the beginning of a trend, it was clearly exhaustion selling and signaling end of trend. Additionally, price started down after all this volume.
3. oversold RSI with divergent peaks
4. end-of-trend signal on the eminiwatch oscillator
5. peak divergence on money flow
6. resistance on the daily chart

What the flip is wrong with my brain that allows this cognitive disconnect? I think I may be too easily distracted. Just need to focus on what I told myself to look at. It is also possible there are too many things I'm looking at, and it's causing information overload. I shouldn't really need 6 confirmations to pick up a signal.


Last edited by jackbravo; October 24th, 2014 at 12:56 AM.
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  #43 (permalink)
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Man you have got a lot of info going on here. I am sure you have picked up that more info isn't necessarily a good thing if you are already struggling with reading the chart confidently. If I can offer any advice it would be to simplify, simplify, simplify!

I have been where you are, and you are right, hanging out on the forum trying to justify yours, or get new opinions about market direction is not a wise choice. Especially while you have money on the line.

I can definitely recognize the bearish bias based on your chart entries, I would also say that over trading is a bit of a concern as well. Jumping in and out of trades like that is not ideal long term. Have you tried swing trading? I had to quit day trading, and switch to a longer term chart to learn to trade well before I even had a chance at becoming profitable as a day trader. I am no pro by any means, but it helped hone my skills in a way that short term trading never could. Just a suggestion.

Instead of trying to to battle with your short bias, try following a short term ema(10 period works well on ES 5 minute chart) and do a little reversion to the mean trading. When the ema is pointing higher, buy pullbacks to within one tick of the ema, and the opposite when it's pointed lower. Set profit target at 1 ATR to build confidence. Would be a good exercise to get you trading with the trend, instead of such erratic short/long trading when say, the trend is clearly up or down.

Throwing a trend line on your chart, and marking where your HH's, HL's, LH's, LL's are at will help you identify your trend without having a bunch of indicators giving you mixed signals. When the trend is up you buy, when it's down you sell, and when it's sideways you wait.

Good luck and keep at it!

P.S. I strongly suggest you do not push your stops back out to 5 points, try getting your entries closer to a measurable form of support or resistance. Ideally within a couple of points.

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  #44 (permalink)
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@lovetotrade - thank you for your advice. i've been using the zigzag lines and a 50ma to keep me on the right side of the trend. it was working earlier in the week, then i totally broke down and stopped following it. not sure why exactly, but i think a big part is once i have a few trades that don't work out, I become emotional and start to decompensate. The trades that hurt me the most emotionally aren't the ones that get me stopped out. They're the ones where the trade was correct, and i stopped myself out by being afraid once i'm in the the trade, then i try to jump back in to the trade once it goes my direction again, stop myself out again, and it just escalates from there. I realize this morning, that's what I did yesterday early morning, and it killed me.

I appreciate your advice. Good luck with your trading.

10/24

Today's goals:
Keep calm and trade.
Be fearless, agile, convicted.


Last edited by jackbravo; October 24th, 2014 at 10:29 AM.
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  #45 (permalink)
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Make sure you write down a few basic rules, and review them throughout the day. If you are like me(and it sounds like it) then it hurts more emotionally to not follow your system than lose money. And while the latter one sucks, the former one is personal.

But start with some entry rules, and just focus on staying disciplined to those rules, until you are doing it every time with confidence. If you focus on building confidence in one area it will migrate to the rest. So if you have an entry that follows your rules, and you feel good about it. I feel like if you can focus on that, then you will be less likely to abandon ship, and just jump out of the trade. You will be more likely to look forward to the follow through.

And if you find yourself straying from your rules, and jumping in and out or becoming emotional, then walk away from the screen for a few minutes, and take some deep breaths. Does wonders.

Remember, simplify. Thanks and good luck.

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  #46 (permalink)
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jackbravo View Post
Take from the market, don't let it take from you.


Swap that out for following your plan/rules. The market is not out to get you, don't make it personal.

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  #47 (permalink)
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lovetotrade View Post
Make sure you write down a few basic rules, and review them throughout the day. If you are like me(and it sounds like it) then it hurts more emotionally to not follow your system than lose money. And while the latter one sucks, the former one is personal.

Yes! That is exactly it! I was trying to put that into words. I rather lose money from following my system than not following my system. I like your idea about focusing on one aspect, the entry, and building confidence with that. Entry is monumentally important to me. Due to my risk profile, I do best when my risk entry is very low (under 2 points).

I've discovered something else. I took off the P&L and what a difference that makes. I'm able to think much more clearly. Ready to rock and roll.


Last edited by jackbravo; October 24th, 2014 at 06:42 PM.
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  #48 (permalink)
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10/24

Total: -15.25pts

What's even more terrible is that if I had just traded the day trend over the last two weeks, I'd be up 200 points rather than down 50. Projecting account blowout in 2 months if this trend continues.

Good things about today:
Taking out the P&L from direct sight was immensely helpful in taking trades and not becoming emotional
I took several good trades based on signals

Not-so-good things about today:
Still got myself out of excellent trades due to ticks ticking down and such other nonsense. Solid interpretation of the market, near-ideal entry points, yet still moved my stops!!! cost me around 8 points.
Altered my rules last evening, which caused me to overtrade today and take many false signals. Instead of using the signals to get me out of trades, I used the signals to go short, against the trend, which I said I would not do, and I did, again and again, until the very end.

However, I still believe the plan can be salvaged, with less information input and NOT TRADING AGAINST THE TREND, geez. How many times do I have to learn this lesson? One issue that continues to be difficult is judging a deep pullback vs. trendchange.

Here are my rules:
1. A trend is defined on the 5000tck chart ONLY!
2. An up trend is defined as lows above a 50 MA channel
3. A down trend is defined as highs under a 50 MA channel
4. Consolidation is defined as rotation about the channel
5. A short can be taken on the pullback on a 2000tck chart
--a pullback is based on visual inspection of the price action. Ideally there would also be a zigzag line indicating a swing low/high in this location. Sometimes, the zigzag line moves, fine. Take your lumps. (A TREND IS DEFINED ON THE 5000TCK CHART!)
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6. A long can be taken on the pullback on a 2000tck chart
(I continue to struggle with how deep of a pullback to use)
7. Stop is set at -5 points. If it breaks 5 points, it means I misinterpreted the trend. Fine, take your lumps. Don't move your stop closer to entry. Let it stop you out. Next time, interpret the trend more accurately. Don't move your fuckin' stop!
8. Target reduced to 10pts a day, ideal 2 trades of 5 points. On a clean trend, I can move a stop to +5points and let it ride to 10.
9. Trading is done at 10 points won or 10 points lost.
10. Be more right more often than you are wrong. Don't try to play with the big boys when you're a small fry.


Last edited by jackbravo; October 24th, 2014 at 07:11 PM.
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  #49 (permalink)
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Sorry you had a bad day, try to forget about this week and start fresh on Monday. One thing I would consider is trying to be a little more specific with your entries. If you could fine tune that, I feel like it would help a lot. Do you have a pre-defined exit before you enter the trade?

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  #50 (permalink)
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lovetotrade View Post
Sorry you had a bad day, try to forget about this week and start fresh on Monday. One thing I would consider is trying to be a little more specific with your entries. If you could fine tune that, I feel like it would help a lot. Do you have a pre-defined exit before you enter the trade?

Ah..yes, I forgot to about the zigzag line. I'll amend. thanks!


My exit is my point target. 5 points. I'm not skilled enough to read the chart for chart-based exits, as I have tried and failed this week. Based on my definition of a trend though, there's usually way more than 5 points available, so I hope that's sufficient.


Lovetotrade, wish you a good weekend, and appreciate your advice.


Last edited by jackbravo; October 24th, 2014 at 07:17 PM.
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