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^TICK and Talk


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^TICK and Talk

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  #1 (permalink)
 Zxeses 
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
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A Traders Journal,

Free beer for everyone who hits thanks... And comes to northern California to come get it. :-)

I try to be a "real" person, what you see is what you get; what i say is what i mean. The weakness of text (lack of emotion and inflection) is a barrier Im going to try to breach in my posts so you get a small taste of what I feel about and when trading.

-Zx

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  #3 (permalink)
 Zxeses 
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 90 given, 171 received


My Real name is Dave,

I'm a middle 40's age Computer Programmer, database guy. Most of my programming has been in web development the past decade however my recent journey into trading has gotten me hooked on C# in NinjaTrader.

Back in 1990 my dad and I opened our first account (we'll, HIS account) and I was supposed to do all the study and make the trades. For reasons I dont want to get into, this was just an unworkable situation that ended with us just closing the account and giving it up. Thankfully no hard losses suffered.

The second try was back in 2000. I had received my inheritance and it was a time in my life that I thought I should give it my own try, without anyone standing over my shoulder second guessing me. I purchased an early version of Ninja back then, so long ago I cant even remember what the version number was. It was certainly slick back then, not the buggy thing we have now. Opened up my account via an IB that offered great margins. I spent time relearning all the stuff I had learned back in '90 and I was on my way... tested the waters, but the largest problem I had was the personal daily effort to get up at 5am, study, prep, and then sit there and trade (sim or live). I had the desire, the learning to get started, but not the personal motivation.

This third try is my final try. Its a cut and dry, I'm either going to be successful, or walk away.

One of the nearly easy things for me this time is that I wake up at 3am, I guess this just happens when you get older.. This morning I woke up at 2am and was sitting at my desk by 3am. When the market opened at 6:30am, I was bright eye'd and bushy, had all my pre-market study complete.

I have spent the better part of the year preparing for this, study, reading, browsing the net, which led me to Big Mikes in June. I feel like this is my core group of people, many of you think like I do, or if you differ, at least I understand why you differ. Picked up the new Ninja in June as well and traded Sim, with a couple of "testing the waters" trades in live in July and August. In September i Joined a trade room, and while I largely ignore the trades the moderator makes, its nice to have an open room where we can talk about what we're doing, the social aspect is really why I participate, and at least when I make a bad trade I have someone to talk to, it helps keep my spirits up and positive.

Looking forward to a good start!

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  #4 (permalink)
 Zxeses 
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 90 given, 171 received

I have a custom built rig with 6 screens running Windows 7.

I am running NinjaTrader 7, which I'm mostly satisfied with cept for some stability bugs.

For indicators, I use the following:
  • Better Pro Am, Momentum & Sinewave
  • SlingShot (with a Major and Minor Cloud)
  • PriceActionSwingPro
  • TimeZoneColors SiBH
  • LightningDetector
  • ErgodicHist
  • Ninjacators RSD
  • MACDBBLinesV4

There's a couple other minor ones like toggles and price-lines, but those above are the ones that help with trading. They are a mash up of several trading styles (Alpha, Swing/Volume & Price Action)

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  #5 (permalink)
 Zxeses 
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
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The first part of my trading strategy has been to go over every interesting indicator, and ferrit out which ones are just fancy fluf that tell you a whole lot of information but dont actually help you, vs those that clearly do help. I have judged every new one against live sim trading. I'll spit out conclusions about each one as I progress in my trade journal.

The second part is that intend to use every bit of information without pre-judgement. ie, just because something didn't work for someone else doesnt mean I don't need to do due dilligence and test it for myself and learn for myself the wisdom behind the advice. Some ideas or advice I obviously cant test or wont test in a live trade situation, but I still intend to find the pearl of wisdom behind it.

Ok, down to my trade rules (wich is also Economics)

1. I will never risk more then 10% of my risk capital TOTAL, this means for me $10k max. If it goes, I'm done with trading.
2. I will never risk more then 5% of my risk capital on any single trade. (This is a maximum, not a plan)
3. I will always set a stop that never risks more then $200 per contract, which is 20 ticks on TF & CL, 40 Ticks in YM/NQ, and 16 ticks in ES.

Since I'm still learning what makes for good trading, and my trading plan naturally follows making those determinations, I'll spout off about those as the days go on.

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  #6 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Keep in mind posts can only be edited for 24 hours, so don't wait very long on all those reserved posts.

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  #7 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Nice job journaling @Zxeses.

I want to let you and all your readers know that in October futures.io (formerly BMT) has a Trading Journal contest w/prizes. The contest runs October 1 to October 31, and the three best journals (as decided by futures.io (formerly BMT) members) will receive a 150K combine from TopstepTrader.

The contest thread is here:



That thread will be open for posting starting Wednesday, October 1. As the author of your journal, you need to make a post in that thread linking to your journal, and then ask users to press the "Thanks" button on that post if they want to vote for your journal to win the contest.

Members can vote for as many different journals as they want. Votes are cast in the Contest thread only, and only on the first post made by the author of the journal that contains a link to their journal. This is done so I can easily count the "Thanks Received" by author/journal, and award the three prizes.

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  #8 (permalink)
 Zxeses 
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 90 given, 171 received

Today started off on the same foot I was on yesterday, taking my first trade of the day at the perfectly wrong time. I was still using the UniRenko T2R6 O2 chart from the Alpha method posts and getting my sad butt handed back to me.

During the trade room I was listening to, someone chimed up with the settings they were using, T3R10 O1 and that made all the difference for the rest of my trade day. I had 100% profitable trades after that tip so I was giddy! Here are the settings in my notes:

Unirenko bar recommendations
2 14 7 (for trending)
1 5 3 (for swinging)

--- Chart 1 ---

My first chart shows the open, I got a buy signal before the open, I usually ignore these but I can see in hindsight it was a good trade missed.

Then of course by waiting and feeling like I had missed the first wave and that the second was going to be larger, still toying around with settings and not taking the trade signal, I finally just said screw it and jumped in (blindly!), this was a total emotion based trade, felt like I was missing out... and paid the price for it, -13 ticks.

btw, all trades marked with a textbox, red for losses and green for wins.

Second trade was good but paranoid. I managed to keep myself from panic when the heat came on, and keep in mind at this point was still using a "choppier" chart setting, I exited the trade as soon as I had 5 ticks

On my third trade, I waited for the pullback and then 2 sell signals (Black arrow = MacdBBLinesV4 - Change in trend, Orange Triangle = MacDbbLines BBand violation "extreem down" type dot).

By this point I had already decided last night I was going to use a 21 point stop loss, which I didnt use at the start of the day. Blaming myself for being overly emotional earlier, I set the 21, made my trade, and then waited and watched a painful 12 points of heat (which would have stopped me out under my old rules). I said screw it, I either do this by my rules or don't trade at all!

Trade 3 was a 19 point winner that I NAILED almost to the tip right before the trend change. woohoo!!

-- Chart 2 --

Next trade came up around 8:53, got my MacdBB zero line cross (and some other signals for indicators I removed from the chart for cleanness) and off I went, going good, My auto-breakeven kicked in to +2 above my purchase... Turns out that if I had left that dang setting off I could have easily survived the heat that followed.

I guess a winning trade is never a bad thing, but no more auto-breakeven for me unless I see a clear target point.

Watched the yellow bars in the pullback and laughed, I had my fingers/mouse hovering over the buy button the whole time, as soon as I got the signals, bam, in!

Nice 30 tick run, very little heat, nice-nice!

My confidence was bulding back up!

I missed the continuation of this trend because of distractions at home, arrg, oh well, life happens...

My next trade on this chart was me sitting back at my desk, seeing the run going on, and jumping in blindly (again! arrrg!)
I was watching the ^TICK and ^DJIA charts like a hawk, but what made me exit the trade was the blue professional bars that appeared, clearly they were taking profits! I closed out for a 1 point safety, I knew it was about to change trend, no reason to give up $$ for a stop rule!

As an added followup, I should have taken the 3 sell signals and went short, but I was too busy patting myself on the back for not loosing a trade that I just let them go by. Clearly I need to learn how to shift gears faster!

-- Chart 3 --

No trades on the 2 perfect signals at 11:04-06 and 11:55ish because I had gone to lunch early so I could catch the close.

After coming back after noon, I caught the down-trend already in progress.... Watching that nice trend go on, I felt like I had already learned my lession well enough on jumping into a trend late and on emotion so I just let it go, so my next chance was at about 12:47 and jumped on it for a perfectly timed 10 tick trade.

----

Trades: 7
Wins: 6
Loss: 1
Ticks: 67 - 13 = 54
Ticks * Contracts: 132 - 26 = 106

The best thing of all today was not that I was in the green, but that I learned from my myself, changed and won from the changes.

I expect that emotion will keep beating on me for awhile, but I'm going to remember this day, when I traded emotionally I lost or almost lost, but when I played it cool, followed what I know and stuck to my rules, I did well.

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  #9 (permalink)
 Zxeses 
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 90 given, 171 received

Mmmmk, no charts, lemmie figure out what I did wrong and will try post again...

(Edited post with proper screenshot linkage, we're good to go!)

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  #10 (permalink)
 DavidHP 
Legendary Market Wizard
New Orleans, La (Mardi Gras City)
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Ninjatrader / Optimus Futures / AmpFutures
Trading: ES / 6E / 6B / CL
 
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Zxeses View Post
Mmmmk, no charts, lemmie figure out what I did wrong and will try post again...

The charts are visible for me

Rejoice in the Thunderstorms of Life . . .
Knowing it's not about Clouds or Wind. . .
But Learning to Dance in the Rain ! ! !
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  #11 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
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In to follow. Sounds like we might have a similar trading style, other than mine is not profitable of course. I've been wanting to get that proam indicator, but haven't yet. What do you think of it? I downloaded the volume indicator but don't find it that helpful.

Looking at the retracements, I've also found 5pts to be ideal for a stop loss. However, I can't make myself wait that much, and I'm usually out at 2.5pts, to my chagrin.

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  #12 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
 
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Interesting journal. I came in originally because I was intrigued about the "^TICK" part of the name.... Stayed because of the charts (and the "Talk" part.)

(Also the free beer offer in the first post....)

I'll be following along. Lots of luck with this.

Bob.

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  #13 (permalink)
 Zxeses 
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 90 given, 171 received

Thanks Bob, as I get further along in this, I will start explaining how I'm using the ^TICK chart on the YM contract and will include some screenshots of how I have the chart setup and how it affected some of the trades.

Best time of the year to come to northern california is in the March-May time frame, everything is green, fresh and alive. I can pick people up from any of the 3 major airports, SFO, Oakland or Sacramento, however I would prefer Oakland since its easier to get to traffic wise.

We have some of the best micro-breweries in the world here, including a local pubs that serve nothing but the micro's. I think you'll really enjoy it.

-Dave

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  #14 (permalink)
 Zxeses 
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 90 given, 171 received

One more recommendation from my friends that I found worked out great:

UniRenko 6 18 9 gives a very nice "monthly/Weekly" long term chart, giving you the bigger time frame but still all the benefits of the UniRenko chart.

Jumped into YM right after open at 6:34 and sat through the 10 ticks of heat, but it quickly recovered in about 30 seconds. Now, for the life of me, I have NO idea why I sold it for only 4 ticks. I checked my 5 second chart, when I sold it there was no heat on that cover price until about a half minute later, and even then the heat lasted for only 15 seconds. Checking back on my signal chart, I was still in the trend, no counter signals to cover, so I just dunno, chalking it up to an emotional reaction since clearly there was no logical reason.



Second trade was me moving my stop up to cover, it was like a manual break even. A really stupid one that cost me what would have been a minimum 70 point trade (using my 21 tick trailing stop)

My third trade was my only real well planned out trade and proper response of the day. shorted at 16868, left my stop alone and waited for the pullback to end. Went into some sideways chop and got the feeling (yeah, I know) that the trend was ending and covered. Turns out I was right :-)

The fourth trade would have made me 10 points of profit, except I was worried the end of the wave cycle was coming so I set my stop to 11... to which, I was stopped out and watched it make that 10 points I was after.. and of course the PB (Pullback) signal started 4 bars early, plenty of warning, I might even have nailed it for 15, but no, paranoid me got stopped out instead by not leaving my 21 stop in place.

Last trade was more of the same, break even protection stop.

Clearly I've done worse today, not from a win/loss ratio, sure I made more then I lost, but I really dont consider money winning... I consider getting my emotions under control and winning the logic test. When I start really winning where it matters, then I'll feel a bit more satisfied that I've won.

Trades: 5
Wins: 4
Loss: 1
Ticks: 14 - 9 = 5
Ticks * Contracts: 28 - 18 = 10


I should add that I was up and out of bed since midnight, trading very tired. I quit trading YM and figured I'd try some other markets. I did so poorly in them that I came up with a new rule:

- No jumping to multiple markets until you've MASTERED one.
- No trading a new market until I've completly tested myself on Sim in that market first.

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  #15 (permalink)
 Zxeses 
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 90 given, 171 received

Where have I been?

Well Monday and Tuesday I was sick with a pretty bad bowl infection, just recovering today. Did some Sim trading and editing my Ninjatrader Strategy today. I am hoping for a win in the November bot contest :-)

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  #16 (permalink)
 bd92154 
San Diego
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Think or Swim
Broker: TDA/Interactive Brokers/ Data Feed TDA & IBK ( Dropped Kinetick)
Trading: Stocks NASDAQ
 
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Zxeses View Post
Where have I been?

Well Monday and Tuesday I was sick with a pretty bad bowl infection, just recovering today. Did some Sim trading and editing my Ninjatrader Strategy today. I am hoping for a win in the November bot contest :-)

Hope you feel better this coming week.
Trading sick is no fun.

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  #17 (permalink)
 Zxeses 
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 90 given, 171 received


bd92154 View Post
Hope you feel better this coming week.
Trading sick is no fun.

Thank you!

I was about to go live again on Friday after some awesome sim trading on thursday, but I woke up really tired, remembering my mistake of trading while feeling bad the last time, i pulled and sim traded Friday as well. Good choice as my first ten trades had nine losers.

I pulled myself together by 9 am, lots of water, b vitamins, reviewed my trade rules and then jumped back into sim and scored a 20 tick run in the russell, the rest of the day went awesome, i had even cleared my morning losses and met my goal.

also on friday I discovered the awesomeness of the default DM indicator using SveRenko 12 or 14 tick charts, but more on that coming....

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  #18 (permalink)
 Zxeses 
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 90 given, 171 received

btw, I've not abandoned my journal, I'm waiting on further posts until I go back to live trading. Todays SIM trading proved to me I am learning about reversal points and market mood, I'm still making mistakes with timing, I won't risk another dime until feeling the market is starting to become second nature.

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  #19 (permalink)
 Cachevary 
Russia,Khabarovsk
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT
Trading: Gold
 
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Posts: 407 since Feb 2014

Those Renko bars will rip you apart.Forget about them.

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  #20 (permalink)
 Zxeses 
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
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Cachevary View Post
Those Renko bars will rip you apart.Forget about them.

Yeah, I learned that lession the hard way back on October 3rd, my last day of trading live. Got my ass kicked.

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  #21 (permalink)
 tflanner 
Chicago, IL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja
Broker: Ninja
Trading: ES, Ym, NQ, VTI, SPY, VXUS
 
Posts: 166 since Jan 2013
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How did u blow up on 10/3?.....Can't imagine it was because of the Renkos bars

The Market is Smarter than You Are
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  #22 (permalink)
Paige
Gainesville, Florida, United S
 
 
Posts: 66 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 30 given, 104 received

Can't help but be curious about your rules #1 & #2. Are you saying that you are willing to risk 1/2 of your total loss limit for this foray on a single trade? I assume I'm misunderstanding something here.

Peace,
Paige

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  #23 (permalink)
 Zxeses 
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 90 given, 171 received


Paige View Post
Can't help but be curious about your rules #1 & #2. Are you saying that you are willing to risk 1/2 of your total loss limit for this foray on a single trade? I assume I'm misunderstanding something here.

Peace,
Paige

Well, i had not yet created rules 4 and 5, which were based on my bad trades on Oct 3rd. I had traded good that morning if I remember correctly, but then gave it all back ... and then some ... trading my TF rules in the CL market, just on the expectation that my undestanding of TF trend was a given.. Its not, CL is a different beast and you cant jump from indexes to commodities on a whim...

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  #24 (permalink)
 Zxeses 
San Francisco CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 90 given, 171 received

Ok, big change for me, I'm going BACK to ES.

I've had enough of TF, this market is not for me.

1. In all my trades (sim/live) I've had about as much luck on a trades vs planned execution.
2. When traders "buy" into TF at the market, the price jumps hard, then recovers hard, this makes it too difficult for me to make consistent strategies, screws with trend channels, skews momentum and moving averages, and makes mince-meat of stop losses.
3. There has been way to many times where I've been right about a trade but got stopped out, even at 21 ticks, to make this safe for me at my current experience level.

I've started to take my past strategies, which at the time I thought were good ideas, and started to apply them to the ES charts, and find that most of them are successful. I've started to discover that the "thick" slower market prevents these unanticipated "jumps". Yes, ES still moves, sometimes hard, but I find these to be predictable moves.

I'm going to work on a revised indicator that still uses ^TICK and ^TRIN data, with a mix of some moving averages in combination with standard deviations and start sim back-testing and live testing next week. I'm hoping to post some results by Wednesday, but I may wait till next Saturday, but this is a must-do change for me.

Another change I'm making is that I'm no longer going to trade on Renko, Range or Tick charts. I will keep these charts up just so I can see more detail, but the trades won't be triggered by them. Minute based charts (1, 3, 15, 60) dominate my screens now, combined with Tick & Trin data for those time frames.

I might revise the time frames to just Fibonacci based time (1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55, etc...) as my minute charts.

-Dave

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  #25 (permalink)
 matevisky 
Budapest, Hungary
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: TopstepTrader
Trading: NQ, TF, YM
 
matevisky's Avatar
 
Posts: 469 since May 2013
Thanks: 633 given, 1,532 received


Zxeses View Post
Ok, big change for me, I'm going BACK to ES.

-Dave

Hey Dave. Good luck with that. If you are a tick lover - and I do see you are, you probably know these guys, and sorry for the duplication if so:
E-Mini Player | E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels, Daily Trade Plan and Live Trading Room for Day Traders - EMini Futures Trading

They are using Tick chart to justify trades on the ES, but based on finding, Tick reading is not really for the Russel that is for sure. The russel as you wrote is to quick to follow, the ES is better. So I believe you made a good decision to your strategy with the ES! Looking forward to see your progress

Máté
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Last Updated on November 8, 2014


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