Can't help but be curious about your rules #1 & #2. Are you saying that you are willing to risk 1/2 of your total loss limit for this foray on a single trade? I assume I'm misunderstanding something here.
Well, i had not yet created rules 4 and 5, which were based on my bad trades on Oct 3rd. I had traded good that morning if I remember correctly, but then gave it all back ... and then some ... trading my TF rules in the CL market, just on the expectation that my undestanding of TF trend was a given.. Its not, CL is a different beast and you cant jump from indexes to commodities on a whim...
1. In all my trades (sim/live) I've had about as much luck on a trades vs planned execution.
2. When traders "buy" into TF at the market, the price jumps hard, then recovers hard, this makes it too difficult for me to make consistent strategies, screws with trend channels, skews momentum and moving averages, and makes mince-meat of stop losses.
3. There has been way to many times where I've been right about a trade but got stopped out, even at 21 ticks, to make this safe for me at my current experience level.
I've started to take my past strategies, which at the time I thought were good ideas, and started to apply them to the ES charts, and find that most of them are successful. I've started to discover that the "thick" slower market prevents these unanticipated "jumps". Yes, ES still moves, sometimes hard, but I find these to be predictable moves.
I'm going to work on a revised indicator that still uses ^TICK and ^TRIN data, with a mix of some moving averages in combination with standard deviations and start sim back-testing and live testing next week. I'm hoping to post some results by Wednesday, but I may wait till next Saturday, but this is a must-do change for me.
Another change I'm making is that I'm no longer going to trade on Renko, Range or Tick charts. I will keep these charts up just so I can see more detail, but the trades won't be triggered by them. Minute based charts (1, 3, 15, 60) dominate my screens now, combined with Tick & Trin data for those time frames.
I might revise the time frames to just Fibonacci based time (1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55, etc...) as my minute charts.
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They are using Tick chart to justify trades on the ES, but based on finding, Tick reading is not really for the Russel that is for sure. The russel as you wrote is to quick to follow, the ES is better. So I believe you made a good decision to your strategy with the ES! Looking forward to see your progress