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Rich's ES intraday strategy
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Rich's ES intraday strategy

  #41 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Cape Town, South Africa
 
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Mon 27 Oct News

Here is the news for Monday:
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Ave daily range is now at 25, and std deviation is at 10. This is the first time these numbers have come down in a while. The market state is now classified as volatile bull.

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  #42 (permalink)
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Thur 23 Oct Trading Results

This was one of the days when I was trying to trade whilst working and travelling. This short trading session was done whilst sitting in a cafe in Florence airport.

Results:
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Setup chart:
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Entry chart:
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Trade 1: breakeven. Price was in green territory, and there was a SQC breakout. All conditions were satisfied, with the framing OK up to the HOD.On the entry, all conditions of the Dixon were satisfied, and I entered at 2 ticks above the DC mean.
Trade management - I moved my stop to breakeven once I had +4 ticks, but then got stopped out. Perhaps I should have exited at +3 or +4, especially given the proximity of the HOD?

Note - at this point I noticed some frustration and impatience. Impatience seems to be quite a theme for me, I need to do some work to understand what underlies it.

Trade 2: - 3 ticks. I was calling this a 'support & continuation' trade, after the SQC above. However, it didn't actually make it back to the river, so perhaps it's premature to call that a support & continuation trade? There's a distinction I need to make between a Dixon pullback (usually just 6 ticks or so, to the DC mean on the 350 tick chart), and a pullback to the edge of the river on the 1 min chart (usually more than 6 ticks). Also, the HOD was very close, which raises questions about framing. And there was some stochastic divergence on the 350 tick.

Trade 3: +3 ticks. This was a case of finding support at the near side of the river. The HOD was close, so framing difficult. Also, momentum wasn't great, as there had just been a doji. Also, I entered +4 ticks up from the DC mean! (+2 up from the cloud)

Trade 4: +1 ticks. This was an SQC breakout. Not quite, technically speaking. I'm seeing with the SQC's that I'm getting in quite late, because I have to wait for a pullback - I'm thinking that I need to try an alternative approach to those trades - rather get in straight away. I entered 6 ticks away from the DC mean! If I'd waited for the pullback would have been a nice easy trade for 4-6 ticks.

Finished on +1 ticks.

Lessons learnt:
  • Stop entering so far away from the DC mean!
  • Only look at stochastic divergence when it's a double top / bottom
  • I might start entering the SQC before there's a pullback
  • I might start taking counter-trend RLCO trades, when they pullback, just for 3-4 ticks

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  #43 (permalink)
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Fri 24 Oct Trading Results


I was travelling this day, so I traded it on replay the following Monday (yesterday). Results are OK, but it looks like even the off day on Friday and the weekend had made me rusty. Plus perhaps the lack of review blogs - these seem to really help me to focus my thinking and resolve.

Here are the results:
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Setup chart:
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Entry chart:
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Looking back at the charts, I notice:

I didn't take a trade at 15.52 because it was a counter-trend RLCO trade. Also, it was still early (before 4pm). However, perhaps I can take these RLCO counter-trend trades, maybe just after price enters the river?

Did well not to take trades around 4pm as we were heading into a consolidation.

Trade 1 was a SQC breakout (except the river was by no means narrow!). It was actually more like a continuation trade. On my entry I chased too far and ended up entering 2.5 ticks below DC mean. It was completely unnecessary because price did come back.

Trade 2 I re-entered, this time on the DC mean. Turned out to be a much better trade. I took an exit at +4, but would easily have made my entire day's target with a simple trailing stop. Pity.

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  #44 (permalink)
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Tues 25 Oct Trading Prep

OK, so here is the news coming out today:
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And here is the daily chart:
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What's interesting is that today is already in 'green' territory - price is higher than yesterday's high.

Ave range for the last 30 days is 25.8 and the std deviation is 10.4. Market state is volatile bull.

My intentions for today:
  • To focus on process over results - really!
  • To be patient, to the point where zero trades in the day is OK
  • To be curious about what I can learn about myself from this trading day - to treat trading as my dojo

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  #45 (permalink)
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nice man. trying to focus on similar processes myself. how was the dojo today?

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  #46 (permalink)
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Rich,

May I ask what indicator that is that draws the horizontal line on the high of the bar on your setup chart? Thank you.

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  #47 (permalink)
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Latest trading update by youtube...

OK, here it is, my latest trading update, by youtube:
https://youtu.be/UKQlmDmfFkI

Let's see if this works as a format.

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  #48 (permalink)
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When you lose, don't lose the lesson...

A couple of very important lessons tonight.

(1) Don't let greed get the better of you, and don't trade after your hours / when you can't fully focus:
Having had a mixed day, I finally left the office at 5pm with a $30 in the bag, just under half my current daily target. However, upon reaching home I switched my computer back on and looked at the screens. A few minutes later I found myself in a trade - which went my way for 5 minutes, but then turned on me and went horribly south, meaning that I ended the day $100 down instead of $40 up. It was not a great trade, rather it was a case of wanting to jump on to a trend that I might have traded into a bit earlier if I'd still been at my screens. I ended up trading well into the trend (in a high risk position, more on that in point two). It was pure greed and maybe a bit of regret for having missed this and one or two other nice moves that had played out in the time I'd been away from the screens. Plus I was trying to make the trade in between preparing dinner and helping my wife with the baby.

(2) I'm getting a better understanding of what a couple of traders have referred to in their books / notes as 'high risk' trades. This trade tonight fit that description. It could possibly have worked out, and for a while there it looked like it would. However, it was a high risk entry to a trading position. There was nothing about the price action to give me a relatively good idea that price wouldn't suddenly reverse on me, and (relatedly) no obvious place for my stop to go. I was trying to trade with a short term trend that had already been running for an hour or more, without even waiting for a pullback or some kind of support level to be formed. I guess that's why the consolidation range breakout and RLCO techniques are ways of making low risk entries - you have a recent level just under where you make the trade that serves as a support.

Finally, just as an afterthought (and perhaps an obvious one), I'm struck by the difference between trading equities and trading currencies, in the sense of how different the long and the short sides can be. I guess I must just guard against putting too much faith in the bias of stocks to move up rather than down

Final final thought - on the emotional impact of making bad decisions like this one tonight. (1) It was impacted by me knowing that I hadn't made my target for the day, and hoping that I could 'easily' 'sneak' in one last trade to make that profit. Wow, that went badly. And then straight away observing my internal dialogue - 'you're such an idiot', etc. , but with quite a wack of negative emotion. And I guess what I'm learning is (1) to just sit with that emotion, and not try to do anything with it - definitely don't revenge trade, and probably just get away from your screens for at least a few hours, if not till the next day. (2) Learning that there is no such thing as an 'easy' trade, at least not a low risk easy trade. Or perhaps, to put it differently, I should be looking for 'low-risk' entry points, not 'easy trades'!

OK, with that all said, time for bed...

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ES HTF


RichJamo View Post
OK, so here are my results for Friday:
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Overall, finished with +1.75 points, so relatively happy with that. Had several opportunities during the session to close out one of my runners and hit +2 points for the day, but I tried for more and on almost every occasion saw the runner come back to breakeven. After a while I started to see that the price had become somewhat range-bound, so I'm thinking hard about how I can spot that in future and let it inform my exits in some way.

See below for the two charts I look at (with entries and exits shown):
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Trade 1: Once again, my first trade of the day is an outright loser (both contracts stopped out at -6 ticks). This has happened to me a few times now, and it makes the session feel like hard work because I have to claw my way back to profitability for the rest of the session. I'm not sure what to do about this, other than perhaps to wait until 4.15 pm before I start trading, or perhaps have some way of determining that the volatility of the market opening has subsided sufficiently to start applying my system.

Ignore what I just said, I've had a look back at it now, and I see that there was no real trend change to speak of. There was a pullback from a big move up, then a resumption of that move up, and I took the trade at the 2nd pullback of that second move up. Which then went against me. (I did actually try and get in on the 1st pullback, and was touched but not filled ) In addition, there was stochastic divergence ahead of my entry on the 2nd pullback, which should have been enough to convince me to keep my powder dry...

Trade 2/3: 1st contract got 3 ticks, 2nd contract got stopped out at breakeven. Lesson: Don't be too quick to move stop on second contract to breakeven, rather move it to -1 or -2 ticks. (which is still better than breakeven on the trade as a whole, given that we've already got +3 in the bag - even taking costs into account)

Trade 4/5: Taking a bit of a chance here, as this was the 4th pullback of this down move. However I managed to get +3 on the 1st contract, and then the second one got stopped out at +3 (I was trailing by 6 ticks).

Trade 6: Execution mistake: I didn't change my stop from 2 contracts to 1 contract when the first contract was exited. Cost me 3 ticks

Trade 7/8: Trade by the books, except I chased quite hard, ended up entering at 2.5 ticks above DC mean (on 350 tick chart). I do this often, only to watch price come back another tick or two, meaning that I needn't have chased. Got my +3 on the first contract, second contract went all the way up to 2.75, and then came back down again and I eventually stopped out for +3. Should I have taken the +2.75 when I could have?

Trade 9/10: Got +3 on first contract, but -2 on second. Not much to say about this one, I think it was a fair trade to make, but they can't all go your way. The only thing I do notice is the double bottom formed when I took the profit on the first contract, with stochastic divergence suggesting that an up move was likely - I could have listened and exited the 2nd contract at breakeven or small profit. Then again, if it had reverted to the down move I would have felt silly.

Trade 11/12: Got in at +2 above DC on 350 tick chart, again could have waited at DC or DC + 1 and would probably have got filled. Fair trade, was just after a trend change. If I'd entered at the DC I might just have been able to ride out the reverse move and enjoy the big up move afterwards. It was at this point that I started to suspect that the price had become range bound.

Trade 13/14: A losing trade. This is where the range bound behaviour can hurt you on this strategy - just as you're getting in, price is not pulling back, it's actually bouncing off the bottom of the range and heading back up. My clue was that the BB30 mean on my 3 minute chart was flat at this point, so I'm going to keep an eye on that in future, and when it is the case, wait for price to break out of the range that's been established - see next trade.

Trade 15/16: Price broke through the range high, so I figured the long trade was on when it pulled back. I got +3 on the first contract and then +8 on the second contract. As it turns out I could have got more than +8 out of the runner, but I chose to exit 1 tick below the high of the day, which hadn't been touched since 4pm. I've been thinking about how else I could have played this. Perhaps put in a limit order to exit 1 tick above the HOD? Or move my stop up to 1 or 2 ticks below the HOD as soon as it gets breached? I've observed that when price reaches the HOD it usually goes through by 1 or 2 ticks, but then can be quite unpredictable - i.e. might come bouncing straight back down, might push up quickly. Any comments / suggestions / thoughts welcomed.

OK, that's all from me. I'm realising that this way of journaling is quite wordy, so perhaps I'll start making screencasts to talk through my trades. However, already feeling like this process is very beneficial to me, both because it bolsters my discipline to actually do the reviewing, and because I feel a level of accountability to this community, which keeps me a little bit more honest (i.e. more likely to stick to my strategy) when I'm trading.

Happy Trading

Why you dont try the same thing with HTF , eg. ES 12/4 (SiProRenko bars or any other Renko type bars) to have a better S/N ratio ? you will probably have better results.

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