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Rich's ES intraday strategy


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Updated December 14th 2016 by George P
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Rich's ES intraday strategy

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  #31 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
 
 
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Mon 20 Oct Trading Prep

OK, so here's the news coming out today:


In a nutshell, nothing major, but I will keep an eye on that 10am speech. Actually, I think I'll be in the air at that time, but might trade it on replay...

Here's the daily chart for the last few months of ES:


So, what I see there is that we started back up from the lows of approx 1813, but haven't broken back above 1900, and in pre-market trading today the market is slightly down.

The ave range for the S&P 500 index (last 30 days) is 23 and the std deviation is 11.3 (these are Friday's numbers, spreadsheet hasn't fully updated - I anticipate the actual numbers will be slightly higher) .

By the Van Tharp method, the market is currently bear volatile (spreadsheet hasn't fully updated yet, but I'm pretty confident, as SMA 200 is at around 1905 and market is still well below that).

My trading intention today is to trade the new system and see if I can get to 2 or 3 points for the day.

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  #32 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
 
 
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
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Mon 20 Oct Trading Results

OK, so didn't have much time to trade today, had to do it on replay after a long flight to Europe. Here are my results:


Here is the chart I use to determine whether I have the correct setup to make a trade:


And here is the chart that I use to make my entries (look for a pullback):


Sorry, minimal comments again today, got a lot on the go.

Lessons learnt:
  • I did well to place fewer trades (not over trading)
  • I need to be less aggressive and more patient on my entries still
  • I need to be careful to distinquish between a continuation and a move towards consolidation (the start of a sideways channel) - this has caught me out a couple of times
  • Must wait for my set up chart to set up 100%, not be tempted to take trades on marginal setup conditions

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  #33 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
 
 
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Tuesday 21 Oct - Trading Prep


OK, so here's the news coming out today:


Ave Daily range on S&P 500 index is now 24 points, std deviation is 11. Market state is still sideways volatile.

My trading intentions for today - to trade the system as consistently as possible.

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  #34 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
 
 
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
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Tuesday 21 Oct - Trading Results

Right, I'm done for the day so going to post these results now.

Here are the actual trades and outcomes thereof:


And here's my setup chart with entries and exits indicated:


And finally my entry chart, also with entries and exits indicated:


I stopped trading today once I hit 2 points. That's my intention going forward.

Lessons learnt today:
  • I'm still making the same execution error every now and then - I don't remove all limit or stop orders once I exit a trade, and sometimes the order gets hit later on
  • An insight I had today is that all I really need is one good trade a day
  • My patience was good today - I kept myself busy with other things, and resisted the temptation to enter the chop
  • It was a 'grinding up' market today, difficult to trade with my system - I need to give some thought to how to handle this going forward
  • I'm still missing important support or resistance lines - I don't always give thought to whether or not I can frame a potential trade - need to be more aware of this
  • Still learning to distinquish between a continuation of a move versus a consolidation towards a SQC - difficult to do in a grinding market like today
  • I lost confidence in a trade and exited at +1 tick, when it would have made me at least +4 - when to exit early and when to stick it out?
  • I became aware of some FOMO frustration when I chose not to enter and price made an upward surge. I felt a tightness in my chest and a desire to trade more aggressively. Luckily my next trade worked out, but when I get this feeling I should probably take a walk around the block.

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  #35 (permalink)
Budapest, Hungary
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Sometimes I am consider the following on these kind of slow moving the market:

All your indicator says it is a trend up move. You are not really seeing any price action which would be below any moving avrage line or anything.

So question to ask: If there was no movement on the market, and if there is no news at all what could happen with a bigger probability:
- market is moving slowly up, or sideway
- a very quick downtrend forming, and going everything down
- very slowly the market turn, and starting to go down?

In the 1. scenario, the best play, is to wait for the 2 point, it will be painfull ofcourse, but wait for it wait for it and wait for it
In the 2. scenario smile!!! something is happening, and you will have a lots of time and space to trade
In the 3. scenario, you will see all the price action which was above the moving avrages, it is going below. So you can change your sentiment.

But, the worst thing what you can do is trying to spot the turn, days like this. I've done a lots of analysis around this topic, and there is more chance about that, the market will do nothing, than the market turning back (I am speaking about the 1st timeframe of the market meaning till lunch!)

But green day is a green day. This is my sidenote only

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  #36 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
 
 
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
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Wed 22 Oct Trading Prep

OK, so here is my trading prep for today, Wed 22 Oct. You'll see that I'm only posting this at lunch time (NY time). That's because I had to deliver some training today (day job), so I'm only getting to this now. My plan is to trade the morning session on replay, and then possibly trade some of the afternoon as well (although that might be a bit ambitious).

Here is the news coming out:


So, something at 10.30am, I will have to watch out for that.

Also the S&P 500 index ave daily range is at 24.7 and the std deviation is at 11.2. The market state is sideways volatile.

My intentions today, are to try and repeat yesterday - reach +2 points without too much drama.

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  #37 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
 
 
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Reply to matevisky

Hi Matevisky,

First of all, thanks for posting on my thread - you're the first one! It's great to know that people out there are reading what I'm writing.

In response to your points, I totally agree with you, the key is to wait out the slow grinding action. The hard part is having the patience to do it!

On yesterday's morning session I entered a couple of trades where there was a slight pullback from the upward grind, hoping to make a few ticks with a pretty tight stop. I got lucky and was able to make my +2 points and close the day.

I was tempted several times to just enter a long trade with a wider stop and a longer time frame, looking to harvest 1R or 2R over the hour(s) before lunch. Whilst this might have worked this time, it would have been inconsistent with the rules of the system I'm trading. Perhaps when I've mastered this system and I'm consistently profitable, then I will look at having an alternative strategy for 'grinding' days - what do you think?

R

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  #38 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
 
 
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
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Wed 22 Oct Trading Results

OK, so this is a really quick post, just the results and the charts, no time for commentary today I'm afraid. However, good news, made +2.5 points today, nice & easy. (On market replay, as had to work today)

Results:


Setup chart:


Entry chart:


Commentary to come soon, but I'm loving this new strategy.

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  #39 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
 
 
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
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Thurs 23 Oct News

While I'm at it, here are the news releases coming out tomorrow:


I may not get to trade tomorrow as I have to travel again, but here's hoping - I don't want to break this run of good form

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  #40 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
 
 
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
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Fri 24 Oct News


Here's the news for Fri:


I didn't have time to trade on Friday as I was travelling, so I traded on replay and finished with +1 tick after 7 trades.

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