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Rich's ES intraday strategy

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Rich's ES intraday strategy

  #11 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Mon 6 Oct Trading Prep

Interestingly, there's not a single piece of news coming out today that's expected to affect the USD (this is the way I usually filter for news).

However, there is a Canadian announcement coming out at 10am, which is just as I start trading. I doubt that this will have much of an effect on ES futures, but will bear it in mind anyway...

Average range of S&P 500 index is sitting at 15.5, and the standard deviation at 6.7. This has been ticking steadily upwards over last week.

Using Ken Long & Van Tharp's terminology, the S&P 500 is 'bull, neutral' on a daily basis. I'm not sure how useful this is for intraday trading, so I may have to develop an intraday measure for this.

One thing that I'd like to add is 10 day high and low, but I think I'll do this on my charts.

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  #12 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Mon 6 Oct Trading Results

OK, so overall not a great day for me today, went down $175. I have to be philosophical and say that down days will happen, and also I have to make sure that I glean whatever lessons there are to be learnt from today. More on that below.

First up, here are my actual trades:

And here are the two charts I use, with my entries and exits marked on them:

And here are my thoughts on each of the trades:
Trade 1: AGAIN, I start off with a full boat loser It was a 3rd pullback after the trend change, and it was the first time in the day that the market was really starting to show direction. All other conditions of the system were met, and stochastic divergence was not an issue. However, I was a bit aggressive on the entry (again), entering at 2 ticks below the DC mean on the 350 chart (as opposed to 1 tick or 0 ticks below). This could have made a difference, as I eventually got stopped out very close (1 tick) to the MAE.

Noticed that after this trade some feelings of 'it's not fair' came up, particularly around this 1st trade of the day phenomenon that seems to be plaguing me.

Trade 2/3: Pullback 2 after trend change, although it again wasn't a very convincing trend change. Made +3 on the first contract, and after some heat made +4 on the 2nd contract. Could have made +9 on the 2nd contract, and in a way I did get a signal to exit earlier, when there was a double bottom with a stochastic divergence - I'm still trying to decide whether I should take this as a signal to exit the 2nd contract - starting to think I should.

Trade 4/5: Missed a fill jut before this, and then got filled. All of the system conditions were met, it was a 2nd pullback, and I entered just 0.5 - 1 ticks above the DC mean. The trend on the 3min chart was still down, so this was a counter trend trade. I made +3 on the first contract and -2 on the second. Perhaps with these counter trend trades I just go for 1 contract and +3, and just on 1st pullback?

Trade 6/7: Met all the conditions of the system, pullback 1/2, with the trend, stochastic divergence not an issue. Made +3 on both contracts. The first one was standard exit at +3. I failed to notice how close we were to the LOD, and when we hit it and bounced back I decided to exit the second contract for +3, which turned out to be a good decision. I must stay aware of HOD/LOD and other support and resistance lines, especially when framing trades and setting exits. I also need to be aware of whether we're trading inside yesterday's range or outside it, and make trading decisions accordingly.

Trade 8/9: Met all the conditions of the system, pullback 2, but was a counter trend trade (on 3 min). Stochastics were fine. Made +3 easily on 1st contract, got stopped out for -2 on the second contract, which was a little unlucky (stopped to the tick, after which it went up). Again, I'm very tempted either not to take these counter trend trades, or to only go for 1 contract and 3 ticks on them.

Trade 10/11: Probably not such a great trade even though I made +3 on both contracts. It was counter trend, 3rd/4th pullback, and there was stochastic divergence. As it turned out I got lucky and just managed to make my +3's. (Might have been a possibility to go short as I exited this trade, but not really in my system's rules...)

At this point in the day had $112.50 (excl costs). I might have stopped here if my profit target was $100...

Trade 12/13: Met the conditions of the system, pullback 2, entered 0.5 ticks below DC mean, stochastics fine, and was with the 3 min trend. I made +3 on first contract, -2 on the second. Maybe a little unlucky, as I got stopped out to the tick on the second contract, before it dropped down again. However, I'm questioning the wisdom of trading so close to the LOD, as price seems to have a tendency to bounce quite sharply and stop me out. Need to keep this in mind, maybe rather wait until LOD has been properly broken through. (see what happens after 5.30 on this day, for example)

At this point, had $125 in profit, again an opportunity to call it a day, but I don't, and watch what happens...

Trade 14: Double loser! I sell on pullback 4/5, 1.5 ticks below DC mean, stochastics fine, but I get nailed by the bounce off the LOD (again) and both contracts get stopped out for the max -6 ticks. In my defense, it had pushed LOD down by 1 tick just before I entered, but I reckon that's not enough of a breakthrough to rule out the bounce. But also, 4th/5th pullback, that's not really right by the system rules...

Emotionally, I noticed I was feeling frustrated and a bit angry, having gone from $125 up and potentially a good day, to $25 down. This might have been a good time to at least take a break, as my emotionality could easily have affected my trading.

Trade 15: Another double loser. Now I bought the bounce, believing that maybe this was a turnaround. I should have waited for it to at least break the range of the previous bounces! It did technically meet the system rules, was a 2nd pullback, etc. I also entered quite aggressively, chasing from +1.5 to +2.5 ticks. And this was a counter trend trade by the 3 min chart. At least the stochastics were with me, but still, not a great trade (see emotionality comment above!). I trend putting both exits at +3, an almost got lucky, but it was not to be.

So, ended the day at -$175, having at one point been +$125

  • I made too many trades at the 3rd/4th pullback
  • I made too many counter trend trades
  • I was not very clever around the LOD, as it bounced a couple of times
  • I need to be very careful to flatten all orders after a trade
  • I need to be very rigid in my discipline around when to stop trading, as I quickly slip into an emotional rut when I have a few losers in a row, and sometimes start revenge trading

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  #13 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Tue 7 Oct Trading Prep

Ok, so here's the news calendar for today:

It's only really the 10am news that will affect me, as I'm currently only trading the morning. It's yellow and orange, so I don't expect huge impact, but will probably wait till after 10am to enter my first trade (if I remember!)

Average daily range of S&P 500 index over last 30 days is 15.8 (still ticking up), and std deviation is 6.6 (staying the same). Market is still bull, neutral (neutral indicating neither volatile nor quiet, but somewhere in between).

Happy Trading!

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  #14 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Tue 7 Oct Trading Results

Wow, not a great day for me again. Down $250.

Here are my actual results:

And here are the two chart I use to trade, with my entries and exits indicated:

Trade 1/2: I managed to break my run of losing money on my first trade of the day, but only because I exited both contracts at +1 I opted for this early exit because when I relooked at the Renko chart I realised that this was actually the sixth pullback since the trend change (if you don't count the brief dip below the DC as a trend change, which I really don't think I should). In addition there was stochastic divergence on the last two highs just before I entered. (I'm still trying to figure out whether I should take this into account). Note: If I'd stayed in I probably would have made +3 on first contract, -2 on second contract. Note 2: Trend on 3 min chart was still down, so this was technically counter-trend.

Trade 3/4: Made +3 on first contract, -2 on second. In my trading notes I've called this 1st pullback after trend change, but as with the trade above, that's only if I define a trend change as any time that the Renko crosses over the DC mean, however briefly. I'm really starting to think that I need to be a bit more discerning about this. In terms of 'real' trend changes, this is the 12th pullback since the trend change! Other elements of the system were fine, and I entered at +1 tick. Technically a counter-trend trade, as BB30 mean still downward sloping on 3 min chart. Note: I could have exited the 2nd contract slightly earlier if I'd listened to a stochastic divergence signal from the second top.

Trade 5/6: OK, a full boat loser, -6 on both contracts. To be honest, I think this was a good trade in that it followed the system rules better than the first two trades of the day. There was a genuine trend change (4 Renko bars past the DC mean), and then there was a first pullback which I looked to trade. Trend on 3 min chart was still down (although not by much, perhaps I should rather be looking at the 1 min chart?). No stochastic divergence. However, one thing I could have done differently was be less aggressive on the entry. I entered at -1.5 ticks, where I could easily have waited at -0.5 ticks. If I had, I would not have got stopped out on the reversal and could at the very least have made +3, -2.

Trade 7/8: Made +3, -2. System rules respected, entered on the DC mean. There was a stochastic divergence on the final little top just before I entered the trade, should I have respected that and not entered? (need to keep an eye on this) Not a terrible trade. Two thoughts: Was this a case of too far, too fast? (11 Renko bars in a row) Was the previous day's low (around 1950) acting as a resistance level?

Trade 9/10: Full boat loser again. -6 x 2. It's interesting to relook at this trade. When I made the trade I wrote in my notes that it was first pullback since trend change, and that there was no stochastic divergence. However, I now see that it was more like a 4th pullback (again, being careful not to count a one Renko crossover as a trend change, but rather as a pullback). Also, if I look at this high and the previous high on the Renko chart, there is definitely a case of stochastic divergence - I think when I originally looked at it on the 350 tick chart I didn't look back far enough at this earlier high.

So, what lessons from this day's trading?
(1) I need to check whether I'm defining 'trend change' and 'pullback' correctly. I remember looking back at Dixon's charts to see how he defines it, but I think what makes sense to me is that a trend change is at least 2 renko bars on the other side of the DC mean, possibly more.
(2) Very tempting after two losing days in a row to want to change the system or add additional constraints. However, I'm bearing in mind Big Mike's no 1 piece of advice, which is to first trade a system consistently before looking to make changes. Doing this review process makes me see mistakes that I didn't even realise I was making at the time, so I'm going to carry on with this system and see what results I generate as I start to reduce the number of mistakes I make.
(3) I think there's a link here to my ability to be patient, and to my FOMO. I hate the feeling of missing an opportunity, and also I get impatient when I haven't entered a trade in a while. I recognise my impatience, and that's why I trade such a short-term, scalping-type system. However, even with this system I need to have a degree of patience, and perhaps also need to shift my thinking around FOMO - as I read somewhere, it's better to miss a good trade than to take too many bad trades.

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  #15 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Wed 8 Oct Trading Prep

OK, so here's the upcoming news for today (filtered to only show news that affects USD):

(Credit: Forex Factory)

Since I trade 10am - 12pm, I will have to be aware of the news item at 10.30am. I often get so caught up with trading that I forget about news, so I think today I'll set a reminder on my phone...

Average range of S&P 500 index is now at 16.4, and std deviation is at 6.8, both of which are up from yesterday.

My intention for today's trading is to be more careful about the trades that I enter, to be patient instead of being anxious about missing an opportunity. The truth is that I only need one or two good trades to make target, so it's not the end of the day if I sit on the sidelines during good moves. As Buffet says, you don't have to swing until things line up exactly right for you. I know that sometimes I look for reasons to enter a trade, anxious that I might miss an opportunity - I need to turn that around.

A second (related) thing that I'm going to keep in mind today is to be clearer in distinguishing between a trend change and a pullback. I will define a trend change as a move of at least 2 renko bars on the other side of the DC mean. (At least 2, I might adjust this up to 3 or 4)

A third (again related) thing that I'm going to look out for is stochastic divergence when entering. I'm not sure whether this is a 100% reliable indicator, but in the spirit of the Buffet advice above, why enter when things are less than 100% in your favour?

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  #16 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Wed 8 Oct Trading Results

OK, so quite a weird trading day for me, with some up and down results, and some interesting lessons at the end of it all.

Here are the actual results:

So, you can see, down 0.75 points at the end of the day.

Here are the two charts I trade off, with entries and exits shown:

Here is my thinking on each of the trades:
Trade 1: Again, a full boat loss at the start of the day, Grrr. Looking back at it now, I see that it was a 3rd pullback (not a great way to start the day). Other considerations: DC upper line was up, there was space, I entered on the DC mean, and there was no stochastic divergence to worry about. The longer trend on the 3 min chart was down, so maybe 3rd pullback was not a great idea. Framing-wise, it still had room to go up. Finally, it was a 10 Renko in a row move up, so perhaps it was also a case of too far, too fast - so that combined with it being counter trend and a 3rd pullback - not a great trade.

Question is, should I have taken pullback 1 or 2 before this 10 Renko move? My notes say that I didn't take it because there was stochastic divergence on the 350 tick chart. (Interestingly, the stochastics were fine on the renko chart...any comments on that?). The renko did make 2 bars above the DC mean before the first pullback, so from that point of view the trade would have been legit...

My notes also say that I was 'waiting for the trend change to confirm itself'. The danger of this is that I then take the 3rd pullback and it's too late. I think I have to set the standard as two renko bars above the DC to confirm the trend change, and then trade on that basis. I would have entered at 16.07 (first pullback), and possibly at 16.10 (second pullback, although stochastic divergence here).

Trade 2/3: By the book, took the first pullback after the trend change, entered 1 tick below the DC mean on the 350 tick chart, with the longer trend (3 min) being down and no stochastic divergence. I made my 3 ticks on the first contract, and the second contract went all the way out to +13 before it bounced from 1 tick above the LOD and when I got out it was for +3. So two possibilities here. Either I just take my profits at +6 or +9 or something, or I put my exit in at 1 tick above the LOD (might still have missed me as it only touched that price). Will say more on this below.

This trade really triggered feelings of excitement as it went all the way out to +13, and then feelings of anger and unfairness as it bounced all the way back up. Note that if I was running an ATM with a trailing stop of 6 I would have made +7...

16.28 didn't enter a trade because of stochastic divergence on the 350 tick chart... Turns out it would have been a good trade. Looking at this stochastic reasoning, I'm not so sure how to interpret it. There was stochastic divergence between a point at 16.26 and a slightly higher price point at 16.27, showing that price had moved slightly higher but momentum was not quite as high. But I'm trading pullback, so isn't there often going to be a slowing down of momentum just before I get in? I think I need to look at stochastic divergence between two price highs that are a bit further apart, like two distinct highs with a pullback in between.

Trade 4/5: This was a profitable trade for me. Made +3 on the first contract, +10 on the second. Trade was pretty much by the book, traded 1st pullback, entered 1 tick below DC mean (could actually have waited till it hit DC mean). It was in the direction of the 3 min trend. Stochastics was not an issue. Interestingly if I had stayed in with the runner (I exited on the first pullback, which turned out to be a 10 tick pullback, but didn't go back past +4), then I could have made much larger gains (+30 or more depending on trail). I chose to exit just to get profitable. Also, a 6 tick trailing stop would have stopped me out on the 10 tick reversal. But it does go back to the point of maybe just letting the runner run because at some stage in the day I'll hit a big winner?

The next interesting point is that I could potentially have traded the second pullback here (given the down trend on 3 min chart). All conditions were met, but I was obviously still focussed on my exit from the last trade... pity.

Between 16.43 and 16.56 there were a few trade signals that I didn't take. A couple of them were the Renko just popping above the DC mean in the middle of a big downward trend, which I took to be pullbacks rather than counter trends. I guess I could have different criteria for a trend change depending on whether it's with the 3 min trend or against it. Because a couple of times there were 2 renkos above the DC mean, but to me that looked like a pullback on the down trend, and I was proved right in this instance. So I think I will increase the limit to 2.5 renkos above/below the DC mean. In which case I should have taken a losing buy signal at about 16.53, but then a winning sell signal at 16.55. However, the LOD was also in play here, so maybe just leave the sell signal...

At 17.11 there was another buy signal that I didn't take because of too far, too fast, which turned out to be the right decision.

Trade 6/7: Another full boat loser! After having sat on the sidelines for a long time while it trended down, it finally came back above the DC mean by 2 renkos. But then it shot off for another 11 consecutive up renkos, and I (correctly) didn't take it because of too far, too fast. However, when it got back to the orange line on the renko chart I thought I'd buy. I think the lesson is not to take these trades until I understand this 'too far, too fast' trend a bit better.

Trade 8/9: This really wasn't a great trade, I wasn't thinking very clearly at this stage of the day. I think I was frustrated after losing out on the big down trend of the day and then having a full boat loser when I thought it was going to push up again (see above). This was pullback 1 after a trend change, BUT stochastic divergence was against me, and we'd just bounced off 1918, a long term low. Also, there was space, but the way it hesitated along the way to returning to the DC mean should have been a sign (supported by the Stochastics). Managed to breakeven.

Trade 10/11: The stochastics were against me on this trade, and it was pullback 3, but I managed to get +1 combined, and was unlucky not to be part of a big move up (stopped out by 1 tick on the runner). Probably not a great trade, given the stochastics, but would have been an ok trade if I'd got in just before this...

Trade 12/13: Made +4 combined. Traded the 4th pullback, which was maybe not so clever, and also entered +3 ticks above the DC mean, when I could have waited for it. Also, given that it was pullback 4, should have taken my +6 on the second contract when I had the chance... Stochastics interesting, but not completely against me...

Was feeling quite anxious and ungrounded at this stage in the trading day, should probably stopped or at least walked away for a while.

Trade 14/15: On the renko, not a bad trade, 1st pullback after a trend change. On the 350 tick, I entered at 2 ticks below the DC mean, could have waited. Made + 3 on the first contract and then exited the runner at +1 because I'd spotted the stochastic divergence.

Trade 16: By this time I was so fed up, I took this trade even though it didn't meet my system criteria. I thought this move up would continue, so I entered on a pullback before the renko had got back above the DC mean. Then I exited both contracts at -4 when I realized that I was trading outside my system rules. Ironically it then almost immediately went strongly up. But really I could have made a legitimate trade just after it crossed over on the renko.

So, quite an action packed day. One of the things that I'm taking out of this day is that I need a clearer daily profit goal and daily loss limit. I'm thinking of +3 points for both. And I'm thinking I need to be more consistent with what a trend change is - 2.5 renkos the other side of the DC mean. And I'm thinking about using a different initial stop: -3 and -6, instead of both contracts at -6.

But perhaps some more thoughts on this day later, or at the end of the week.

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  #17 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Thursday 9 Oct Trading Prep

Ok, so here is the news for today:

So some news at 10 and some news at 10.30, both yellow flags though. As well as a G20 meeting that will be going on all day. Not much I can do about that last item.

Average range on S&P 500 index is 17.7, and the standard deviation is 8.4. Both of these numbers have jumped up quite significantly.

My intention for today: Trade for +3 points, and stop if I hit -4 points. Treat a trend change as anything which is 2.5 renko bars over the DC mean. And... stop trading 3rd / 4th pullbacks so much - be patient!

Last edited by RichJamo; October 9th, 2014 at 10:23 AM.
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  #18 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Thurs 9 Oct Trading Results

Jeez, not a great day for me. Started going badly and then I had a bit of a meltdown. But I guess this is why I'm still trading this system on sim and journalling - to learn and improve...

Here are the numbers (you can see it got pretty ugly at the end there):

And here are the two charts I use, with entries and exits indicated:

Trade 1/2: Getting so bored of this pattern - first trade of the day, full boat loser. Looking back at my notes, and at the charts, it was a first pullback, DC upper line up, there was a little bit of space but not that much, and I entered 1.5 ticks above the DC mean. Stochastics - NA on Renko, but on 350 tick they were mixed. I think, most importantly that the major trend for the morning up to that point was down, making new lows (for the day and the day before), and that if you look closely at the 350 tick charts you can see that there were two small pullbacks ahead of the one that I traded. So perhaps be careful of taking the counter-trend trade, especially when the trend is so strong. Also, take into consideration these smaller pullbacks, even if they don't show up on the Renko.

Trade 3/4: Went short this time, made +3 and +8. Call this the second pullback, DC was down, there was space, I entered on the DC mean, and with the 3 min trend. Stochastics on the 350 tick were fine, on the Renko they were not so great (how to understand this contradiction?). I was close to the LOD and wasn't sure how to play it when it got there, so I played safe and got out just above, which turned out to be a good decision.

16.11 Chose not to enter short on 4th pullback - stochastics weren't great, plus it was the fourth pullback, plus the LOD was close by. On the other hand, we were in a strong down trend..

Trade 5/6: Went long and made +3, +0. Was second pullback, DC up, space, entered on DC mean, stochastics good on Renko, bad on 350 tick (?), trend still very much down though. This was a risky trade, could be seen as 3rd pullback, counter trend... I exited runner at +0 due to bad stochastics, turned out to be a good decision.

16.24 Got touched, but not filled

Trade 7/8: Went short, made +3, -2. 2nd pullback, with the trend, DC down, space, 1 tick below, but stochastics on 350 tick chart not great. Not a bad trade.

16.29 & 16.31 was tempted to go short, but system rules not met. I think given the downward trend that it would have been ok to take at least the 16.31 trade (given that all rules were met on the 350 tick chart.

16.44 nearly went long - good decision not to - it was counter trend and there were only 1.5 renkos above the DC mean

16.51 & 16.54 tempted to go short. 16.51 not in accordance with rules, not 2.5 renkos below DC mean, and 350 tick chart conditions not met at all. 16.54 however looks like a good trade, except for the fact that it had just bounced off the LOD and my experience is that it can bounce quite a bit when it hits the LOD, which turned out to be the case - good decision.

16.57 tempted to go long, and it would have turned out well if I had. Something told me that after the consolidating period it would go up, and the shape on the 350 tick looked good. The only thing that stopped me is that it hadn't gone 2.5 renkos above the DC mean (it had gone 2.25...)

Trade 9/10: Went long, made +2 and -2. The +2 was actually an execution mistake when I was trying to set a stop, and then it all got very confusing so I closed out the other contract (was happening very quickly). If I look back at it on the 350 tick, it was essentially a 3rd pullback on a counter trend move. Not such a great one. Plus there was quite a lot of hesitation at the top just before I entered, also not a great sign (I don't think?). Not a great trade.

17.04 Tried to go short on first pullback, but didn't get filled... Would have been a profitable trade

Trade 11: Went short on 3rd pullback. Only 1 contract. DC down, some space, trend still down but stochastics against me (on Renko and 350 tick!). Full boat loser on one contract. I think I thought that it would finally break through the LOD... (thinking again!) Note - am I seeing a pattern here - the 2nd and 3rd pullbacks were very close together and so a sort of double bottom formed with stochastic divergence, then it went up...

Trade 12/13: Went long, made +3, +0. 1st pullback after trend change (maybe 2nd if you include one below the Renko mean). DC up, space, entered 0.5 ticks above mean. Stochastics fine on 350 tick and Renko. Trend definitely still down. A bit unlucky on the second contract - put my stop at BE and got stopped out to the tick. I normally put the stop at -2, and if I had would have captured a very nice upmove. Main lesson for me: inconsistency in application of method is what will drive you crazy, because you ask yourself why did I suddenly change my way of doing things there!?

Trade 14: Went long on 4th pullback (4th pullback counter trend! - I think by this point my frustration was really kicking in having missed all of the big moves of the day so far, and I started trading emotionally, trying to catch up, having hunches about which way price was going to go...) Dc was up and there was space, and I did enter on the DC, but the longer trend was still down and stochastics on the 350 tick were not looking great (in fact there was a very clear stochastic divergence between the two most recent highs!!) Lost almost full boat on this trade -5, -5.

Trade 15: Another full boat loser. Although I was quite emotional by this stage, and slightly out of control, this was not such a bad trade decision. The only problem was that I entered at 3 ticks below the DC mean. If I'd waited for it to come back to the DC mean, or even mean -1, I would have at least made breakeven!!

Trade 16: By this stage I was so annoyed that I was starting to trade on hunches. I went long on a hunch that 1950 was going to act like a support level and that price was now going to move up. I then moved my usual 6 tick stop because I wanted my hunch to be proved right. Which of course it wasn't. So a big loss to finish the day. Main lesson here: I need to find a way to STOP trading before things get this bad with my emotional state. As my trading coach puts it, I need to recognise the somatic markers (sensations in my body) that can tell me I've slipped out of a good state of mind for trading.

1 - I need to better recognise when I'm no longer in the right emotional state to trade, and have the discipline to STOP trading. Even if it means taking a walk around the block and coming back 10 mins later.
2 - I need to take the broader trend into account more, especially when the index is below it's low of yesterday and making new lows. Until a strong indication otherwise, this is a market that is in a downward trend, and counter trend trades should be entered with great caution. (I entered 6 long trades and 4 short trades on this downward trending day!)
3 - I need consistent trade management, otherwise I'm going to drive myself crazy. Set the runner's stop at -2 initially, because there's often a second little move back towards the DC mean after an initial push up.
4 - I got really down after this trading day, and seriously questioned the method. However, looking back at it, the edges are so small, and it so easily could have worked out differently. The trick is not to overreact when it doesn't go my way, and to STICK TO THE SYSTEM

Last edited by RichJamo; October 10th, 2014 at 06:06 AM. Reason: update
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  #19 (permalink)
Cape Town, South Africa
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
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Fri 10 Oct Trading Prep

OK, so here is the news for today:

So this G20 meeting was on yesterday as well. Reading a little bit more, it seems that these meetings can cause a bit of market volatility. There is a statement released at the end of the day, but there are also comments made to reporters throughout the day. It did seem to me that the market was a bit volatile yesterday, so perhaps if I find the same again today that's the reason why.

The conference is taking place in Brisbane, Australia, so if anything the end of day press release should come out before the market open in NY, I'm guessing...

I'd be interested to know how other traders trade on days when these types of meetings are taking place?

The S&P 500 index average range (30 day) is (to be updated, still waiting for spreadsheet to update)

My trading intentions for today:
1 - To go back to basics, to be calm and patient, and try to recognise if my frustration starts to build
2 - To be aware of the broader trend of the day, and try to broadly trade in line with that trend, only taking 1st pullback on counter trend trades, and going for smaller gains on these trades
3 - To be aware that not all pullbacks show up on the Renko chart, and to take these smaller pullbacks into account

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Cape Town, South Africa
Posts: 45 since Aug 2014
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Mon 13 Oct - change of system!

OK, so I was really hoping to make it through this entire month trading just one system, because I really do take to heart Big Mike's number 1 piece of advice, which is to stop tweaking the system and first attempt to trade it consistently.

However, in my first 10 days of journalling, what's becoming increasingly clear to me is that I can't trade a system that I don't fully believe in. And a fundamental problem that I've had with the jwdixon method from the start is that you're risking 2R to make R, which means that you have to have a win ratio of 67% just to break even. Being a follower of some of van Tharp's work, and also Ken Long's work, this just didn't sit well with me. I think I only went with it for a while because I had a few good days, especially when capping my profit at a low limit and stopping trading at that point.

So, enough about the past, and on to the future I'm returning to a system called a Regression Line Crossover (RLCO) system, which was developed by Ken Long and some of his students. I hope it doesn't break forum rules to mention him here, but please do google him if you're curious, he's done some really cool work.

I like the robustness of Long's research into his systems and the way that he lays out all elements of the system in detail, including trade management, money management, etc.

So, from today I will be trading an RLCO system, and journalling on my results in the same way (more or less) as I have been up till now.

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