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The Pandawarrior Chronicles II


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The Pandawarrior Chronicles II

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  #1 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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I've decided to start another journal here at futures.io (formerly BMT). I haven't journaled in quite a while here at futures.io (formerly BMT) but instead have kept a blog going elsewhere for sometime.

I enjoy writing the blog however, I am on hiatus there just because I haven't felt much like keeping it up lately. I'll resume at some point writing there but for now its on hold.

That being said, I am about to embark on a new project that is going to change my trading schedule pretty dramatically. I will basically have about 60 minutes in the early morning to day trade and perhaps a couple hours on the weekends to review, assess and plan the following week.

As it happens, I've been wanting to try swing trading futures. I have of course done this on forex and I quite like it but never on futures and so with my new schedule, it seems like the perfect time to give futures swing trading a shot.

For the month of October I will be both day trading (probably scalping) CL futures in the early morning as well as looking for longer term entries on daily and 4 hour charts. Hold time on the swing trades needs to be at least one day to count as a swing trade....more likely looking for 3 days or more. In addition I will be looking to add to the swing trades up to my max size count if the trade goes in my favor enough to warrant taking on additional risk.

For the day trading, I will be looking at primarily scalping for 20-30 ticks per day or one hour, which ever comes first. The goal is to have a higher winning DAY percentage over the course of the month than strictly a high trade win rate. In other words, win three out of five days, try to scratch one day, and lose the other day.....I am not looking for huge wins nor am I looking to win every single day. I will probably have time for one or two trades a day max before I have to switch gears and move on to the new project.

This will be a solid test of which method is best over time....although I suspect the swing trading will win.

ALL trades will be SIM until I have proven the edge in both trading styles. I have an edge in the day trading arena and could trade that live but due to the new time constraints, I want to make sure I get the new routine down before I risk live money.

All of this coincides nicely with the journal contest coming up next month so I decided to use the month of October to run the journal. I had planned on just doing this in my Moleskin journal but it seemed like a good idea to make it public as I am sure others might like to see the results of these two methods.

I will post every day although some posts might not happen until much later in the day or even late at night as I will have some travel coming up but not sure which days and for how long.

Due to the travel, all trading will be done on my 15 inch laptop. And I will be using primarily one screen for each trading type.

I'll post charts and PnL's when appropriate.

As a month isn't much time to prove an edge on swing trading, I may have only one or two trades during the entire month. I will post updates on those as situation warrants.

Again the primary purpose is to prove I can handle the new routine, trade while traveling if needed, find and hold longer term trades and see if its really possible to scalp consistently over time with tight time constraints.

I will also be adding to my initial entry size on the scalp trades if and when the account balance increases by the amount of the delta I have decided to use.

And for the purposes of this journal, I'll be using $150,000 as the starting balance since that is the combine TST is giving away. I know they don't allow swing trading but that's not the point of this exercise. Just to limit my max size to 15 lots.

Some things I will not be going into detail here. Exact entry and exit criteria, I may mention those but its not the issue here. Style and method along with money management and position sizing are the ideas I am journaling here.

While I welcome positive input, I am not looking for long winded advice columns here....it is sim and it's just testing two different methods and time constraints along with money management and position sizing. All goes well, I will implement either or both in the future.

First post here will be in October.

Should be fun.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread

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  #3 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I've decided to start another journal here at futures.io (formerly BMT). I haven't journaled in quite a while here at futures.io (formerly BMT) but instead have kept a blog going elsewhere for sometime.

I enjoy writing the blog however, I am on hiatus there just because I haven't felt much like keeping it up lately. I'll resume at some point writing there but for now its on hold.

That being said, I am about to embark on a new project that is going to change my trading schedule pretty dramatically. I will basically have about 60 minutes in the early morning to day trade and perhaps a couple hours on the weekends to review, assess and plan the following week.

As it happens, I've been wanting to try swing trading futures. I have of course done this on forex and I quite like it but never on futures and so with my new schedule, it seems like the perfect time to give futures swing trading a shot.

For the month of October I will be both day trading (probably scalping) CL futures in the early morning as well as looking for longer term entries on daily and 4 hour charts. Hold time on the swing trades needs to be at least one day to count as a swing trade....more likely looking for 3 days or more. In addition I will be looking to add to the swing trades up to my max size count if the trade goes in my favor enough to warrant taking on additional risk.

For the day trading, I will be looking at primarily scalping for 20-30 ticks per day or one hour, which ever comes first. The goal is to have a higher winning DAY percentage over the course of the month than strictly a high trade win rate. In other words, win three out of five days, try to scratch one day, and lose the other day.....I am not looking for huge wins nor am I looking to win every single day. I will probably have time for one or two trades a day max before I have to switch gears and move on to the new project.

This will be a solid test of which method is best over time....although I suspect the swing trading will win.

ALL trades will be SIM until I have proven the edge in both trading styles. I have an edge in the day trading arena and could trade that live but due to the new time constraints, I want to make sure I get the new routine down before I risk live money.

All of this coincides nicely with the journal contest coming up next month so I decided to use the month of October to run the journal. I had planned on just doing this in my Moleskin journal but it seemed like a good idea to make it public as I am sure others might like to see the results of these two methods.

I will post every day although some posts might not happen until much later in the day or even late at night as I will have some travel coming up but not sure which days and for how long.

Due to the travel, all trading will be done on my 15 inch laptop. And I will be using primarily one screen for each trading type.

I'll post charts and PnL's when appropriate.

As a month isn't much time to prove an edge on swing trading, I may have only one or two trades during the entire month. I will post updates on those as situation warrants.

Again the primary purpose is to prove I can handle the new routine, trade while traveling if needed, find and hold longer term trades and see if its really possible to scalp consistently over time with tight time constraints.

I will also be adding to my initial entry size on the scalp trades if and when the account balance increases by the amount of the delta I have decided to use.

And for the purposes of this journal, I'll be using $150,000 as the starting balance since that is the combine TST is giving away. I know they don't allow swing trading but that's not the point of this exercise. Just to limit my max size to 15 lots.

Some things I will not be going into detail here. Exact entry and exit criteria, I may mention those but its not the issue here. Style and method along with money management and position sizing are the ideas I am journaling here.

While I welcome positive input, I am not looking for long winded advice columns here....it is sim and it's just testing two different methods and time constraints along with money management and position sizing. All goes well, I will implement either or both in the future.

First post here will be in October.

Should be fun.

Glad you are back.

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  #4 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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 TheShrike 
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Glad you're back Panda. Your previous journal here and your blog were very influential for me so I'm glad to be able to read more of your stuff.

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 Scalpingtrader 
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[x] FIRST PAGE

Man you SO got another reader here!

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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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A word about risk and money management. I plan on using 1% of the account or $1500 as my per day initial risk for scalping and up to 2% for swing trading.

For day trading I'll size based on the stop size and since I'd like at least two shots at it each day, I'll cut the size in half so if I have a full stop out, I don't have a full daily stop out on the first trade. This means I'll probably get 2-3 shots each day for the scalping portion of the experiment.

For swing trading, even though I can use up to 2% of the account size for initial sizing, more than likely I'll use much smaller size to initiate the trades and quickly add to it up to max exposure if the trade gets going in my favor.

At no time will I have more than 3% exposure between scalping and swing trading.

This means I will probably need to make sure any position adds result in a so called "risk free" trade.

Based on initial thoughts, I suspect most swing trades will target somewhere around 3-5X initial risk. More if possible but thats what it looks like right now.

Scalp trades will be more like 1:1 or 1.5:1.

Delta for scalping is initially $500-750 per contract before a new contract can be added.I haven't decided on this yet but I will by October 1st. I'ill decrease size at around $250 per contract loss. Size up slow and size down fast.

Delta for swing trading is going to be more like $2000 per contract since I can take more initial risk, I think I need to increase slower. This will be determined on closed trades....at no time will open trades be used to determine new initial position size. And I'll size down at around $1000 per contract loss. Not sure how this will work in practice as I've never swing traded before.

The intent is to trade small enough to accurately place stops but yet large enough to increase account size in a measurable and significant manner.

Lastly, I have placed an 8% max draw down on the account for the month. This means I can have 4 swing trade losers in a row right from the beginning of the process or 8 losers in row scalping beginning day one. OR a combination of the two.

What this does is prevent account blow out. While its only a month long sim experiment, the idea is that the following month, I'd have 92% of the original balance to trade with. I'd begin November with a max 6% draw down limit and assuming that maxed out, I'd continue this reducing pattern until I had a winning month at which point I could increase the drawn down by 2%. In doing this, I could lose the max amount 6 months in a row and still have 75% of the original capital left.

Hopefully that wouldn't happen but since capital preservation is the key to this game, having strict monthly draw down limits is key to making sure you stay in the game. And while this experiment is only 30 days long, no sense in being silly about it with unrealistic risk parameters.

Thats it for now....might be more later.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
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  #8 (permalink)
 iqgod 
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It is great to be reading your journal again!

Welcome back, and glad you started again!

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 madLyfe 
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i will def be following along panda! kick some ass buddy!

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
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 bobwest 
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Glad to have you back. The new experiment will be interesting to follow.

Good luck with it.

Bob.

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 Daytrader999 
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Thanks for starting this 'experimental' journal, and good luck with your experiment!

I'm really looking forward to the result of which 'side' wins...

"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Last night looking at the chart I thought I had a chance for an entry on the swing side of things....so I initiated a 1 lot trade, put in the stops and targets and went to bed.

So far MFE is +75 and it pulled back to around +15 or so before heading back up. I will leave it open over the weekend. Since its sim, the stops and targets are locally hosted so if price goes against me more than 250 ticks I think I'm toast. With a live account, orders are at the exchange so don't have to worry about that with live trading.

I'm tracking this manually on paper so if for some reason this happens, I'll mark it as a -250 tick loss even though ninja might have it as a much larger one due to filling orders on monday and a large gap down opening. At least thats the way I think it will work....not done this before so no idea really how it will record the trades.

Scalping I passed on a short trade which would have netted me +20 ticks and waited for the next trade which ended up being a short in the hole which I moved to BE pretty quick as the order flow was not really confirming. Once it closed up I basically reversed and took my 20 ticks on the long. The scalping was with half size at 3 lots so +$600 on the day with an open swing trade.

See what happens.....



Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Since this is my first swing trade, I'm treating it like a new born baby....taking pictures a bit to often....but I promise, this will be the last update until I either add to it or close it out.

Current state of the swing trade:

If I close it now, I will have made more money on the swing trade with one lot than I did on the scalp with 3 lots.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
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 Big Mike 
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Nice job journaling @PandaWarrior.

I want to let you and all your readers know that in October futures.io (formerly BMT) has a Trading Journal contest w/prizes. The contest runs October 1 to October 31, and the three best journals (as decided by futures.io (formerly BMT) members) will receive a 150K combine from TopstepTrader.

The contest thread is here:



That thread will be open for posting starting Wednesday, October 1. As the author of your journal, you need to make a post in that thread linking to your journal, and then ask users to press the "Thanks" button on that post if they want to vote for your journal to win the contest.

Members can vote for as many different journals as they want. Votes are cast in the Contest thread only, and only on the first post made by the author of the journal that contains a link to their journal. This is done so I can easily count the "Thanks Received" by author/journal, and award the three prizes.

Mike

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  #15 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
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If anyone has suggestions on how to solve the issue noted on my chart, please chime in.

Original swing trade still open....see chart for issues related to this.

Three scalp trades today. All three lots including the add on of 3 lots on the last trade.

-25,+6,+40 with an add on for another +20, total of +60 on that trade for a net of +40 less commissions.

PnL of $1100 after costs.

This puts me at +$500 profit per contract and time to add another lot to initial entry on the scalp trades. This delta might be to aggressive but I'm gonna test it out here.

EDIT: I closed the swing trade out at BE because I don't really know what the real entry price is anymore. I am going to start over after talking to NT again about separating the two different styles in the same account....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
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 Scalpingtrader 
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PandaWarrior View Post
If anyone has suggestions on how to solve the issue noted on my chart, please chime in.

Original swing trade still open....see chart for issues related to this.

Three scalp trades today. All three lots including the add on of 3 lots on the last trade.

-25,+6,+40 with an add on for another +20, total of +60 on that trade for a net of +40 less commissions.

PnL of $1100 after costs.

This puts me at +$500 profit per contract and time to add another lot to initial entry on the scalp trades. This delta might be to aggressive but I'm gonna test it out here.

EDIT: I closed the swing trade out at BE because I don't really know what the real entry price is anymore. I am going to start over after talking to NT again about separating the two different styles in the same account....


I believe You need to enable hedging for your account - unfortunately I don't recall whether you do that with your broker or if NT can do that for SIM/ in general...

Sorry that I can't be more specific..


EDIT

Searched for it b/c I could not remember where I had that info from. Seems that I've been mistaken there - hedging within Ninjatrader is only possible through using multiple accounts.

At least that's all I found in terms of statements from ninjatrader (or anyone else, for that matter)

Sorry. My bad.

ST

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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,382 received


Scalpingtrader View Post
I believe You need to enable hedging for your account - unfortunately I don't recall whether you do that with your broker or if NT can do that for SIM/ in general...

Sorry that I can't be more specific..


EDIT

Searched for it b/c I could not remember where I had that info from. Seems that I've been mistaken there - hedging within Ninjatrader is only possible through using multiple accounts.

At least that's all I found in terms of statements from ninjatrader (or anyone else, for that matter)

Sorry. My bad.

ST

Multiple accounts it is...confirmed with NT.....but supposedly NT.8 this will be addressed.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
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  #18 (permalink)
 tturner86 
Elite Member
Portland, Oregon
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Multiple accounts it is...confirmed with NT.....but supposedly NT.8 this will be addressed.

I always wondered how that worked. Thanks.

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  #19 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
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Because of the limitations of NT using SIM to manage both long and short term trades in the same account, I've decided to simulate the swing trades only. Basically post the entry price along with the time along with the stop and target numbers. Then track this in real time as the trade develops.

To that end, here is a chart with the first and second entries noted.

Entry price for first trade is 92.55 and 93.24. Combined entry price is now 92.89. Stops for both positions now moved up to 91.98. Target remains at 97.80 which was the original target price.

The second entry happened today while I was live in the market but by then I had determined I had a calculation issue with the swing trade and no way to fix it. I closed the trade rather than add to it. I had hoped I had a box checked wrong and I could resume doing both swing and scalp trading.

Since that is not to be, please accept the simulation. I'll keep it up on an as needed basis.

Current open profit is $2900+/- with current price at 94.30 as I type.

Closed profit for scalping is $1700 after commissions.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
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  #20 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
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Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
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A nice day trading. One and done.

Reversal signals today....but had a break out long at the opening bell....way to much risk after the fact so let it go....took the break of the ledge short once price couldn't break out from the ORH and sustain it.

I felt price would make it back to the ORL which was enough for a scalp and I left some on to see what would happen. I set my final target at yesterday's 50% level and let it ride.

I had also decided to take the swing trade off today if it could not break out of 94.80 area with some authority but to let it have room to breathe as well just in case. So once price broke below the up trend line, I marked it as closed. Net profit of around $3300 after commissions.

Today's trading produced $1980 after commissions.

Total for the experiment so far, $7,000 since Thursday night. With slightly less than half coming from a single trade held since Thursday night and missing almost all of yesterday's move.

Since I made more than $500 per contract today, I am adding another one tomorrow. And while my personal limit is 5, I am going to use the TST limits for this experiment which is 15 so I have a ways to go.



Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
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  #21 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
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Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
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  #22 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Total mismanagement day. But still profitable.

Last night I was pretty sure we would revisit yesterday's 50% level. Which we did eventually today. So I put on a full size trade, 5 lots which is my current max based on delta and in the overnight, my first scale was hit. Price continued to slow grind up but it was an ugly back and forth. Eventually I trailed out of the overnight position, (bad move) and started trying to get in again.

This resulted in a couple of poor decisions about entry and stop locations as I wasn't really sure. Then just prior to inventory, a sort of head fake short signal. I was in that with a MFE of around 18 ticks and held it through inventory which just nailed the stop. However I reversed right there and recovered most of the loss on the first scale out.

This traded trailed out at BE again.....and I found another spot to get in with full size, first scale out and subsequently trailed the second position out at BE after another add on actually was stopped out.

Net for the day is $1100, another $1400 to go before another add to the initial size.

However if I had left the original trade alone, that portion of the trade was worth $2400 by itself and if I had still been in the trade just before inventory, I would have avoided the two stupid trades.....this would have given me a bit more confidence to hold the next trade a bit longer instead of a trail out at BE.

All in all, a profitable day but not executed according to plan in anyway. Also, the last add on was done without benefit of the purple line drawn across the chart, in fact, that level was not even visible on my chart as I had it spread out a bit more than I do for this picture.....so it was taken more or less in the dark with the signal of a close above the bear flag the only real reason to take the add on trade.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I thought I was done....but I got a short signal after another failure at the top and went short. Target was 50% level of the day. It went there much fast than it went fro there to the HOD.....hmmmmm

Anyway, this trade netted $1600 so tomorrow I increase my initial risk by one lot. Trading six tomorrow.




Oops...in the time it took me to write the post, it dropped another 50 ticks...lol

a friend has been telling me to stay in until the chart says to get out....this is one of those times. However, the trade did work according to plan....I just planned wrong....oh and I added the markers since the last one didn't have them on it.



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 PandaWarrior 
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Should be interesting to see what comes in the next few days.....either we consolidate here and break back up.....or we continue the trend downward.....and in view of today's price action, I favor the latter.....but we will see...




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 PandaWarrior 
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I had an NG trade as well today. I entered small last night and held it.....then added to it in the morning session.

Here is it...This trade made north of $2000....



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 PandaWarrior 
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Huge overnight move down....pullback long today???

Yes....but I took a counter trend short and closed at BE once the momentum started picking up.....and reversed to long and held that until price got close to my target zone and started trailing up....The charts gave no reason to get out but that is where I wanted to look to exit anyway so I let the trail take me out.

Here is the 240M with the target area marked.



And the trade chart:



And one with the trade open just in case....



$3000 today. And since this was $500 per contract, I will add another one tomorrow to my initial risk.

I have an NG trade in progress and will update that one after the number comes out.....

Cheers

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 PandaWarrior 
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NG trade is over....

This thing is beautiful if you are on the right side of the trade. Inventory moves price like lightening....I like that...

Had an open trade before inventory with light size, and just before inventory added to it with a sell stop IF price went in my favor.....took profit in three stages, with the last one trailed out if price stalled out.



While this trade added $3700 to my total for the day, I'm not going to increase size on the CL trades because of it. I am trying to let each one stand on it's own. At least for now. And to be fair, I've only really had success with NG on inventory days, so I might not trade it again until next week even though yesterday was good, I've not normally had good success on NG trading it every day.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Sheesh....



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 PandaWarrior 
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Looks like the project I was about to start is not gonna happen anytime soon...so back to normal trading...more or less...

Today marks 7 days since I started this journal. I've had no losing days, and those days have been some of the biggest winning days I've ever had.

Just in case you are wondering, all trades start with two positions, one off at +20 and this is always the larger of the two positions. I will then add back if I get a good place to do so.....and to be fair, I haven't always done that this week. Old habits die hard.....but I am getting much better at finding places to add on and it makes a huge difference in the net.

The +20 scalps sure do make the equity curve smoother. And today, I made money even though the market was ranging for a while. Those +20 made money while the runner was a dud....until the end. I knew it would break eventually and if it didn't, I could simply lean on the profit I'd make on the +20's in case I had a loser or two.

One thing I'm still working on, getting out when the chart says to get out......instead of a profit target. I'm choosing targets based on structure and to a lessor degree, some fib type targets.....still, getting out on the runners when the chart says to is hard to do....those profit targets are nice to see....its purely emotional at this point. That being said, my stops have widened considerably and I am exiting losing trades when the trade is over, not because of a fixed stop....so on one side of the trade, getting out based on chart structure is getting much better while on the profit side, its still emotional....say about 50% at the moment.

Today's targets were based on structure....and watching order flow when it got there.....I did stretch my original target out to the third level I have marked on the chart and trailed out at the second one when price didn't confirm enough to the last one.

EDIT: Price almost made it to the last target but had I held I would have been trailed out at the exact same place as I my actual exit.

There is a trade where I got impatient with the long and did a reverse position....while in hindsight, that would have been the ideal place to do that, my short signal or reason to exit the long didn't come until the next bar....and so I recognized that and exited at BE on the short...because it was impatience and because it was not time....and I went short on the next bar like I was supposed to.

I made a bit over $5000 today and that's enough to add to the initial risk....it wasn't enough to add two more lots so only one for next week....

Have a great weekend everyone...and it looks like I exited prematurely again today....




And one with the trade open.....just in case.




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 PandaWarrior 
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A typical conundrum we traders face.....

Its a darned if you do, darned if you don't.....but I think in the end, you need to more or less pick which way you are going to trade and stick with it.....



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 tradermark2009 
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Hey panda, first of all...great trading. I'm more of a scalper, but this thread alone has helped me to expand my thinking alittle and look at the market differently. But if you don't mind me asking, what indicators are you using?

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 BoltTrader 
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Good trading. Enjoying the journal.

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 smalltrader35 
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Hi Panda,

Can you provide indicators used and chart template is possible?? Thx

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 PandaWarrior 
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tradermark2009 View Post
Hey panda, first of all...great trading. I'm more of a scalper, but this thread alone has helped me to expand my thinking alittle and look at the market differently. But if you don't mind me asking, what indicators are you using?


I'm glad you like the thread. Its always nice to know someone feels like they are giving something back to the community.

Here is my list of indicators all of which are available here on the forum in the downloads area. The indicators are mostly a set of filters that guide my thinking in terms of market direction and potential entry areas. I have various thought processes with regards to how I use each one and then taken together they form a a reason to enter a trade and to exit that trade. Basically they only provide context, its what you do with the context and how price is behaving in that context that determines your trade.

That being said, most people focus on indicators as a way to find an entry location, which is fine of course but of more importance is both the risk associated with that entry and the exit. Entries are designed to minimize risk and exits to maximize profit.

So to sum up, I provide my indicator list gladly but they won't be of much use without a plan to use them for both entries and exits.


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 PandaWarrior 
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smalltrader35 View Post
Hi Panda,

Can you provide indicators used and chart template is possible?? Thx

see the next post after yours....all the indicators are shown.....they are all available on the forum....

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 tradermark2009 
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Hi PW, I hope all is well! Thank you for the list, I have most just missing 2. My purpose is to really work harder at the imtermediate price movement and projections-intraday. I trade inside your trades, but I would like to have a better plan to trade more based on multple swing movements once a trend area has developed so I can hold longer. Holding longer, means less commission for me. So with all that just trying to get better, and I like your approach in what your thought process in for entering trades. I have kept tabs on you since the AZ thread...so thank you for your skill, sharing and above all your time. BTW..welcome back. Mark


PandaWarrior View Post
I'm glad you like the thread. Its always nice to know someone feels like they are giving something back to the community.

Here is my list of indicators all of which are available here on the forum in the downloads area. The indicators are mostly a set of filters that guide my thinking in terms of market direction and potential entry areas. I have various thought processes with regards to how I use each one and then taken together they form a a reason to enter a trade and to exit that trade. Basically they only provide context, its what you do with the context and how price is behaving in that context that determines your trade.

That being said, most people focus on indicators as a way to find an entry location, which is fine of course but of more importance is both the risk associated with that entry and the exit. Entries are designed to minimize risk and exits to maximize profit.

So to sum up, I provide my indicator list gladly but they won't be of much use without a plan to use them for both entries and exits.



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 TheWizard 
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@PandaWarrior,

Where can one find Pavalotos 3/10 ?

I searched all threads for attachments under "pavalotos" and also downloads and came up empty handed.

Thank you.

After all, it's what you learn AFTER you know it all, that counts!
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 Big Mike 
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@PandaWarrior,

Where can one find Pavalotos 3/10 ?

I searched all threads for attachments under "pavalotos" and also downloads and came up empty handed.

Thank you.

Do an attachment search:

https://futures.io/search/attachments/

Keyword: LBR

I am guessing it's the same as existing LBR310 indicators, but Panda can clarify.

Mike

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 Silver Dragon 
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PandaWarrior View Post

Here is my list of indicators all of which are available here on the forum in the downloads area. The indicators are mostly a set of filters that guide my thinking in terms of market direction and potential entry areas. I have various thought processes with regards to how I use each one and then taken together they form a a reason to enter a trade and to exit that trade. Basically they only provide context, its what you do with the context and how price is behaving in that context that determines your trade.

That being said, most people focus on indicators as a way to find an entry location, which is fine of course but of more importance is both the risk associated with that entry and the exit. Entries are designed to minimize risk and exits to maximize profit.

So to sum up, I provide my indicator list gladly but they won't be of much use without a plan to use them for both entries and exits.

@PandaWarrior

I think people look at your profit / loss and indicator set and go wow, I can do that... The reality is that it rarely works for the reasons highlighted above. The truth is; Give a new / un experienced trader a good trading system or good set of indicators and they will still lose money... give a good / experienced trader who is focused on trading (not money!!) a poor trading system or bad indicators and they will figure out a way to make money.

At some point a trader realizes profits are nothing more than a result of an action. If you are focusing on the result instead of the action your never going to succeed as a trader.

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 TheWizard 
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Big Mike View Post
Do an attachment search:

https://futures.io/search/attachments/

Keyword: LBR

I am guessing it's the same as existing LBR310 indicators, but Panda can clarify.

Mike

@Big Mike, Tried searching under LBR. Brings up a whole list of LBR310 indicators, some of which I've shared. Nothing relating to Pavlotos, though. I didn't know it was another 'flavor' of LBR310. Thanks.

After all, it's what you learn AFTER you know it all, that counts!
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 Silvester17 
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indicators:

@TheWizard,

the first indicator in the download section (ninjatrader 7):



also, why use old version when there were several updates:

anaOpeningRangeV38 is now V42 and since using a tick chart the mtf version would make even more sense:



anaVolatilityBandsV30 is now included in the sessionPivotsV42 family (anaCurrentDayOHLV42):




and most important don't forget:

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 PandaWarrior 
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Silvester17 View Post
indicators:

@TheWizard,

the first indicator in the download section (ninjatrader 7):



also, why use old version when there were several updates:

anaOpeningRangeV38 is now V42 and since using a tick chart the mtf version would make even more sense:



anaVolatilityBandsV30 is now included in the sessionPivotsV42 family (anaCurrentDayOHLV42):




and most important don't forget:

If you like this journal and find it valuable to you, please click here and hit the thanks button. Unfortunately you can only thank me once in the voting thread but you can thank me all you like here....take care and hopefully this is helpful.


I like the older versions better. They do less things which means less processing for my machine to do, less things I have to set to transparent because I only use a very small fraction of the indicators capabilities and while @Fat Tails indies are great, I don't like the way they plot certain types of levels...so I use some older stuff because I like it better....

And with regards to the 3/10 indie, I only recently put it on the chart because I was watching the webinar Damon did and thought I would compare my charts with his in terms of the set ups.....so far I have not used it even once in making a trading decision.....which means I will probably remove it in the coming days....on the other hand, I have a MACD on my 15M chart using it to look for divergences and possibly find better entry points on my tick chart......I am having some success with that.....combining with some volume stuff and I think I may have found some added tools to assist me in making better trade decisions.....it remains to be seen however how successful I will be with that.

The point is not making decisions in a vacuum in terms of looking only at this tick chart and its indicator set. I have a daily, a weekly, a 240M and a 15M chart as well as the tick chart.....all have essentially the same indicator sets on them and I'm looking for opportunity across all three of the smaller time frames....once in a while I switch the 15 for a 5 just to see a little deeper into the price action.

All that being said, I trade on a 15 inch laptop and the 800 tick chart gives a pretty decent look at price action, which allows me to have the single chart up most of the time along with my DOM.

The plotted lines provide directional context and the moving averages work more or less like any other moving average set up......especially in trends. You can figure it out from there. I have an opening range play I like to use sometimes and the OR also provides a degree of directional bias.

So like anything else, a great trader can use this and trade really well just like @Silver Dragon said or a poor trader can use it and blow out their account.

Its ALWAYS more about the trader than the system....always.


and like always,

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 Silvester17 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I like the older versions better. They do less things which means less processing for my machine to do, less things I have to set to transparent because I only use a very small fraction of the indicators capabilities and while @Fat Tails indies are great, I don't like the way they plot certain types of levels...so I use some older stuff because I like it better....

if you're concerned about the processing for your machine, then this is just another reason to use the newest versions. especially the drawing method is greatly optimized in those newer versions. and also you can more or less set everything to true or false, meaning no need to use transparent (also no processing necessary if set to false).

not to forget the the holiday updates. like the volatility bands indicator has not been updated since 2011.

don't understand "I don't like the way they plot certain types of levels"

if I'm wrong, hopefully @Fat Tails will correct me

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 Big Mike 
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TheWizard View Post
@Big Mike, Tried searching under LBR. Brings up a whole list of LBR310 indicators, some of which I've shared. Nothing relating to Pavlotos, though. I didn't know it was another 'flavor' of LBR310. Thanks.

Damon Pavlatos is Linda's husband, he is using her LBR310. I am not sure what version Panda is using, but it's a simple LBR310 most likely.

Mike

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 trendisyourfriend 
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Big Mike View Post
Damon Pavlatos is Linda's wife, ...

Mike

I thought he was her husband.

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 Big Mike 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
I thought he was her husband.

LOL



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I like the older versions better. They do less things which means less processing for my machine to do, less things I have to set to transparent because

The anaCurrentDayOHLV42 has a higher code efficiency compared to the old VolatilityBands V30. V30 still had a few bugs. There is no advantage sticking to the old indicator. The same applies to the OpeningRange indicators.


PandaWarrior View Post
I don't like the way they plot certain types of levels...so I use some older stuff because I like it better....

You can set any level that you do not wish to see to transparent. Some levels can be individually disabled via the indicator dialogue box.

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 PandaWarrior 
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The anaCurrentDayOHLV42 has a higher code efficiency compared to the old VolatilityBands V30. V30 still had a few bugs. There is no advantage sticking to the old indicator. The same applies to the OpeningRange indicators.



You can set any level that you do not wish to see to transparent. Some levels can be individually disabled via the indicator dialogue box.

So I removed the old versions, and applied the new versions...and I remembered why I don't use them...

1. The volatility bands and the anaCurrentDayOHLV42 have lots of different things I don't use. In particular, the only thing I use is the ADR calculations....and I happen to like the way V38 prints the ADR on the chart much better than the new one does. In reality, I'd rather have an indie that only calculates that value and nothing else....I don't use any of the other capabilities of the indie.

2. I was never able to get OpeningRange42 to plot anything...after changing all the settings, nothing plotted. I'm sure its something I've done wrong as I know lots of people use it no problem. The old one works for me so no need to change it.

3. While anaCurrentDayOHLV42 will plot the mid range of the day, I prefer the look of the one I am currently using....

So while I'm sure the new versions are better in terms of functionality, the old ones work for me....I don't need all the extra stuff @Fat Tails bundles into the new versions. I wish I could get all of my indies packaged into a single one with only the specific functions I use included so I could just load one single indicator and be in business.

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 TheWizard 
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Silvester17 View Post
indicators:

@TheWizard,

the first indicator in the download section (ninjatrader 7):


@Silvester17, thank you. I found it. I guess I hadn't visited the Download section in awhile. Nothing new with the LBR 310 / Pavlatos. I still think @Fat Tails anaBlauDSS beats it, hands down. That, coupled with a 50 period CCI seems to give very good entry / exit signals.

After all, it's what you learn AFTER you know it all, that counts!
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 PandaWarrior 
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All signals short this morning except for a head fake long that occurred after price refused to go down after breaking the ORL's. That being said, the long I took was so obviously a head fake that I did a stop and reverse immediately as it broke downward, still it took what seemed like forever for it to finally break down and run a bit.

I was in the short in the exact correct location the first time....but fear took hold and I went BE twice before the long...and the long logic was devastatingly simple...its not going down so it must go up. Plus a trend line break and hold at the previous ledge area....so I took the long even though it fit none of my other rules. So this loss could have and should have been avoided. But in the heat of battle, sometimes you make poor decisions. Where I live, there are lots of Marines and they have a saying, all plans go out the window when the firing starts!. And sometimes it does feel like that.

However, after the long, I got my emotions together well enough to recognize that price was going down even if it took a while and just held the next short. Exited at the break of the swing.

So the way the day should have played out was, first trade short, take profit on first position, BE on the second, Re-short where I took the last trade, take profit on the first position, take profit on the second. Two trades max. Or where I took my last trade, add on to the first one. Either way would have been a smarter way to play this out today.



And on a different note, I replicated the Damon Pavlotos chart on CL using a 50SMA high low channel instead of a 30SMA and put it on a 5M chart. I think he might have something there...



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 TheShrike 
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Hi Panda,

Is the lower chart picture also using volume bars per Damon? I know he said he liked to use those in his webinar.

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Hi Panda,

Is the lower chart picture also using volume bars per Damon? I know he said he liked to use those in his webinar.


Indeed they are...

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 PandaWarrior 
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Counter trend scalping.

AIAO


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 PandaWarrior 
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And how it looks on the 5M Chart



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Took a LONG time for it to set up.....but it worked





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And the 5M chart




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Ok, it occurred to me that perhaps I'm not addressing certain things readers might like to hear about....so if you have questions or would like to hear something addressed I'm not talking about, let me know. I'll address them as best I can.....

Take care...

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 lancelottrader 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Ok, it occurred to me that perhaps I'm not addressing certain things readers might like to hear about....so if you have questions or would like to hear something addressed I'm not talking about, let me know. I'll address them as best I can.....

Take care...

Hi..Very good trading today.
Do you have any specific rules or mechanical type entry criteria ? Does something happen as far as a combination of the context of market conditions, indicator events..signs of momentum..? In other words, what has to happen that makes you put on a trade?

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Hi..Very good trading today.
Do you have any specific rules or mechanical type entry criteria ? Does something happen as far as a combination of the context of market conditions, indicator events..signs of momentum..? In other words, what has to happen that makes you put on a trade?

Its more about context than anything else....for instance, I have filters that must be met prior to a long being taken....and today, those filters were SHORT when I took a long....I knew this and yet my emotions took over for a little while....but when the stop was triggered, I had a sell stop waiting on the next tick. That trade met all the criteria for a short. All major filters were short and all the minor ones were short as well....which meant a nice runner....at that point, the only real issue was where to get out....I picked a target on the 240M chart and exited on a trail once price didn't get there and then broke up through the swing highs where my trail was.

I also watch the DOM pretty close when price gets close to where I think I want in.....that DOM better be moving pretty fast. Otherwise I'm cautious.

I like the flags, triangles, etc....all classical technical analysis. So apply the major contextual filter rules against the technical analysis and you have the makings for a trading system.

Basically the same stuff in reverse for the longs today....the first one was counter trend and I scalped that one. The second one was after I was expecting price to be short again and break down below the bull flag as the long I had just taken looked like a bear flag on a higher time frame to me.....but once it broke up, I knew the trend had changed and again took a look at the higher time frames for the target area. This time I didn't wait for price to break a swing low to get out. It was close so I exited on a bar by bar trail. Price did make it to that level eventually but it wasn't worth it to me to wait all that time for a few ticks.

After that, I was tired and not willing to trade any further....so called it a day.

Hope that helps.

Brian

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 lancelottrader 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Its more about context than anything else....for instance, I have filters that must be met prior to a long being taken....and today, those filters were SHORT when I took a long....I knew this and yet my emotions took over for a little while....but when the stop was triggered, I had a sell stop waiting on the next tick. That trade met all the criteria for a short. All major filters were short and all the minor ones were short as well....which meant a nice runner....at that point, the only real issue was where to get out....I picked a target on the 240M chart and exited on a trail once price didn't get there and then broke up through the swing highs where my trail was.

I also watch the DOM pretty close when price gets close to where I think I want in.....that DOM better be moving pretty fast. Otherwise I'm cautious.

I like the flags, triangles, etc....all classical technical analysis. So apply the major contextual filter rules against the technical analysis and you have the makings for a trading system.

Basically the same stuff in reverse for the longs today....the first one was counter trend and I scalped that one. The second one was after I was expecting price to be short again and break down below the bull flag as the long I had just taken looked like a bear flag on a higher time frame to me.....but once it broke up, I knew the trend had changed and again took a look at the higher time frames for the target area. This time I didn't wait for price to break a swing low to get out. It was close so I exited on a bar by bar trail. Price did make it to that level eventually but it wasn't worth it to me to wait all that time for a few ticks.

After that, I was tired and not willing to trade any further....so called it a day.

Hope that helps.

Brian

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question. I appreciate it.

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 PandaWarrior 
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No trade day for me. I have family today and probably tomorrow as well. Actually not sure when they are leaving to be honest!

Anyway, I got up to trade today, realized I was not really focused and just decided to not do anything today. Hopefully I can get back in the groove tomorrow when I figure out what the plan is....

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Took some time tonight to review the action today....instead I saw this....something I've been working on to see real time.....these head fake type things happen all the time.....I want to be on the side doing the head fakes instead of being the one suckered in.....like I have many times in the past...




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Daily chart....price has broken the lower trend line.


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I promised to write about today's trade in some depth....but I elected to mark the charts instead and go step by step....what the charts don't say is how hard it was to NOT trade prior to my entry.....I just sat there....ever nerve in my body wanting in because I KNEW it was going down....but rules are rules....more or less....I sort of broke one on the entry....price wasn't totally below the consolidation box and trend line when I entered...but I knew I was ok....had price started back up from there, I would have just closed the trade.

Anyway, in chronological order, here are the charts:










And the bigger picture charts.....the 5M has a 20EMA on it from the 60M chart along with a 15SMA....



Hopefully this gives you some idea of my thought process today. I'm not always this disciplined nor am I always this clear on what I think might happen. Sometimes it takes me a couple of shots to get it right. Today it took one....I prefer the one and done thing when it happens.....

And to be quite fair, after this trade, there was a nice counter trend trade back to the same resistance area...but I was already tired, up late last night with family, plus I was hungry....so pack it in and go be with the family.

EDIT: About the news....yes it can be tricky, BUT the setups for trading the news almost ALWAYS happen prior to the news....and retail traders EXIT the trade or don't enter prior to news....but what almost always happens is what you see today....trade already in progress, liquidity disappears, price flashes around a bit, takes out the weak hands, suckers people in the wrong way and then the key part.....continues doing what it was doing BEFORE the news. Of course sometimes you get surprise and price simply reverses and keeps going.....but most of the time, this scenario plays out week after week....the big money already knows what the news is gonna be within reason and so they start loading the boat ahead of time. Today, the setup occurred about an hour ahead of time, usually its 15-30 minutes ahead of time....regardless, if you see a set up prior to the news, don't be afraid to enter and hold through it....provided your stops aren't to close......the liquidity vacuum can eat your stop if its inside the spread.....I have had that happen once or twice. You won't see the stop price print on the chart but you still get taken out.....and its because your stop is between the bid and ask which I once saw be around 30 ticks during the split second or two after the number. Regardless, trading the CL number can be a lot of fun if you get it right.

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 PandaWarrior 
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The world?s greatest stock picker? Bet you sold Apple and Google a long time ago. - The Washington Post

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Some days are like soft blissful dreams where everything goes your way....some days are like a dense fog where you can't see anything.....and today was one of those days.....chart is clean now but I had it all messed up with conflicting trend lines, false levels, you name it, I had it screwed up....funny thing is, just trade the method and all is good...but that happens occasionally....like the day's when your favorite QB throws 4 TDs and the next week he throws 4 picks returned for TD's.

I decided to quit before to much damage was done....




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Well it wasn't pure bliss but it got the job done. Happy to reverse the ugliness of yesterday. Still wasn't super clear about how I thought the market would move but after days and days of selling, I thought we might be ready for a pull back, but I went short per plan, twice, which is fine but it moved off the bottom so fast there was no real way to get in long unless you just jumped in....which I don't do....so I waited.

Finally got a less than wonderful entry bar and I wanted out the entire time it sat there but I held it and eventually got a nice winner out of it. I had an addon area I could have put some more on but since I felt the HTF's were not in alignment with this trade, I elected to pass on adding to the trade, it would have worked but I am satisfied with the decision, it could have just as easily reversed right there and stopped me with no gain....which is also no problem but I think the decision was the right one.



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Multiple accounts it is...confirmed with NT.....but supposedly NT.8 this will be addressed.

Hi PandaWarrior - have been down the same problem path before. Did NT elaborate at all on how they would do this?

Also when you say swing trade, is that ever a position held overnight? Many thanks.

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Hi PandaWarrior - have been down the same problem path before. Did NT elaborate at all on how they would do this?

Also when you say swing trade, is that ever a position held overnight? Many thanks.

No they didn't. Just that it would be addressed.

And yes those swing positions are held overnight....sometimes for days....

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 PandaWarrior 
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No trades today....holiday and not sure about movement or volatility.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I try to use non trading days to learn something....or to simplify or to solidify something I've been working on....and I've done all three today.

1. Decided to incorporate an RTH 5M chart. Turns out there are a few valuable uses for an RTH chart..... Mainly directional filters and potential chop identification vs a globex chart.

2. Solidified a couple of issues I've been having with where to take profits. This will be much more systematic from now on. In other words, instead of guessing or using my panic mode to take profits, I'll be using pre-determined profit locations. More on this later.

3. Simplified my entry chart a bit more. Not much mind you, just a little. But each incremental reduction in the amount of required input necessary for a trading decision the better.

None of these are things you should decide on a trading day. Rather wait until you have or take some down time (I call these "Buffer Days" and they should be planned into your schedule each month) to think each item through and decide without the pressure of the market intruding on your rational thought process.

Lastly clarified issues related to trade location, number of trades available per day with regard to my trading rules and set ups and rearranged my chart locations slightly.

Looking forward to the remainder of the week.

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This is not something I traded, just validation of what I've been thinking and working on.....turns out it was a decent day to have traded but that's the way it works out....regardless, I'm glad I took the day off to work on a few things.




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Interesting day.

I like the revisions made to the charting setup yesterday. Easier to read.....in fact the easiest trade of the day I passed on because it looked TERRIBLE at the time...but I did see it in real time.....its just something I've NEVER done before and is what is right vs what is comfortable.

The "normal" trades were a bit more difficult. For one thing, I recognize how far away from the actual resistance line we were when I took the trades, secondly I also knew the first one was a bit early and the next two were reminiscent of the one I passed on just in the middle and working with a potential weak resistance zone.

There may be more trades later today but I'm done at least for a little while. Gonna just sit and watch for maybe two more hours tops and see how price action flows today.


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And for the curious Georges out there, the RTH 5M chart.


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Its a long read but well worth it....been following this guy for over ten years and he's uncannily on target with his analysis....

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Ok, now I am done for the day.

Tried to get and stay long in the pull back....should have been scalping....so had a couple small losers and scratches....then broke short, got filled on the pull back to resistance.....held to PZ2....

Also cleaned the chart up a bit....too many hand drawn lines.....the method works without all that although sometimes it helps and sometimes it doesn't.

Now I'm pretty tired and I haven't eaten yet. So I'm done with trading for the day.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #77 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Got some food in me, cleared my head and decided to try and add some value to the process here. This journal is supposed to do two things; 1. Help me stay on track, 2. Add value to the readers and get them to vote for me in the contest thread.

So adding value is the way to accomplish both objectives. With that in mind, I'd like to pontificate on today's price action.

Today was pretty typical in terms of price action. A head fake higher out of the ORH....and then a couple of bars back and forth and then the impulse move down....followed by a pull back to the break out zone and then continuation short. SO far so good.....its 6:05AM and I'm fresh and patient. No issues with waiting and waiting. Just sit there and see how price sorts itself out.

Take the trade, hold to the first profit zone. I had designs on the lower profit zones but once price stalled at the first one, a deep pull back is almost guaranteed. So trail out and wait for the next set up.

This is where it gets dicey. Starting to get hungry now, patience is a little thin, more in the mood for instant gratification.

Got a long on the 800T chart. This is ok, just have to be aware of the HTF. For this reason, I traded small size, small stops and BE pretty fast....which led to a bit of chop in the pull back areas.

However, once the pattern completed, a new short following the pattern of the first one is in order.....which played out nicely. As I write this, I have left a ton of money on the table. I took profit at the PZ2 only to see it collapse to PZ3 and further.

As a trader, I executed ok today....BUT the patience issues set in while I was hungry and I admit I had a bit of fear of giving any back....but each trade stands on its own, regardless of what the PnL is.


So the value add from this is simple.

1. If you have an edge and you can recognize it real time, then only execute on that edge. Leave everything else to someone else. Its all the in between trades that rob you of mental and financial capital.

2. If you have some sort of reasonable way to project profit objectives, stick to them. More often that not, those will play out in your favor if you are patient.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #78 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Got some food in me, cleared my head and decided to try and add some value to the process here. This journal is supposed to do two things; 1. Help me stay on track, 2. Add value to the readers and get them to vote for me in the contest thread.

So adding value is the way to accomplish both objectives. With that in mind, I'd like to pontificate on today's price action.

Today was pretty typical in terms of price action. A head fake higher out of the ORH....and then a couple of bars back and forth and then the impulse move down....followed by a pull back to the break out zone and then continuation short. SO far so good.....its 6:05AM and I'm fresh and patient. No issues with waiting and waiting. Just sit there and see how price sorts itself out.

Take the trade, hold to the first profit zone. I had designs on the lower profit zones but once price stalled at the first one, a deep pull back is almost guaranteed. So trail out and wait for the next set up.

This is where it gets dicey. Starting to get hungry now, patience is a little thin, more in the mood for instant gratification.

Got a long on the 800T chart. This is ok, just have to be aware of the HTF. For this reason, I traded small size, small stops and BE pretty fast....which led to a bit of chop in the pull back areas.

However, once the pattern completed, a new short following the pattern of the first one is in order.....which played out nicely. As I write this, I have left a ton of money on the table. I took profit at the PZ2 only to see it collapse to PZ3 and further.

As a trader, I executed ok today....BUT the patience issues set in while I was hungry and I admit I had a bit of fear of giving any back....but each trade stands on its own, regardless of what the PnL is.


So the value add from this is simple.

1. If you have an edge and you can recognize it real time, then only execute on that edge. Leave everything else to someone else. Its all the in between trades that rob you of mental and financial capital.

2. If you have some sort of reasonable way to project profit objectives, stick to them. More often that not, those will play out in your favor if you are patient.


Truly Excellent points, there..

Failure is not an option
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 PandaWarrior 
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Today's impulse trade.

I saw the shorts happen but to be honest, after the sell off yesterday, another 2 dollars overnight I was expecting some sort of pull back today.....so I passed on the initial shorts and of course they ran 70 ticks or so, then I thought maybe I was wrong and went short on the pull back.

This failed pretty quick (BE) and I knew it was over for the shorts in the near term. Besides, while I was sitting there, price took out the swings to the long side, then rolled over and took out the lows and bounced pretty hard....

Since the London session was mostly flat to long, I figured longs would be the way to go especially at or after the open. With the gap nearly 100 ticks away, seemed reasonable to look for longs.

At the open, things heated up pretty quick and I just jumped in....and it went straight up.....I had planned on adding to the trade but it never really pulled back enough to get a second position on. So while it was a great trade, it wasn't with full size. To bad.

Not sure if I'll trade much the rest of the day. Will have to see something pretty compelling at this point to make me want to take further risks today.



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 PandaWarrior 
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Now I'm done. At least until I get something to eat and take my blood pressure meds!!

+80ish ticks on the day.

I'm starting to think another 3 dollar run from here might be possible....its not slowing down at all....time for food and meds though.....


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 PandaWarrior 
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Another one....things are happening in a nice steady pace today. I like it...not much waiting around...

And yes, I took my meds and got some food....


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 PandaWarrior 
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One more for the road....

This one might run and run but I took it off at yesterday's low and today's 50% level.


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 PandaWarrior 
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And the last one of the day....or I should say last sequence....there were a couple of scratches in the chop while I tried to get cute and get in ahead of any potential break out long....and a premature short.....for -13 I think....

Then the real one....get in and hold....again, smaller size....I've felt less than in the zone the second half of the trading day....so no need to get greedy and perhaps lose big if I'm not seeing things well.

have a great day everyone....its been a fun day.


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 PandaWarrior 
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Not a good trading day today.

To start with, I had to inventory numbers to deal with....NG and then CL thirty minutes after that. In NG, the price action as it did last week, set up a few minutes prior to the news. I had my sell stop order in about 10 minutes prior to the announcement. When the time came, the sell stop triggered at around 6 ticks favorable slippage....but funny thing is, the price went down so fast, NT couldn't get the ATM target limit orders in fast enough before price had already gone ten ticks past where they were supposed to go. You know how fast NT gets the bracket OCO orders in. NG flashed 70 ticks in the blink of an eye!. My target was 60 ticks and by the time the action slowed enough to process it, my trail stop had 50 ticks locked in. I just closed the trade because I could see the limit order resting there and the price bar 10 ticks further out....crazy....

On to CL, should have walked at that point....but CL news coming in 30 minutes....the NG trade took less than 5 seconds so had 29 minutes and 55 seconds to set up the CL one.

Didn't matter since I just couldn't see how the price structure was developing. I was long all morning, just chose silly places to get in.

So trying to get long several times and stopping out each time, I gave up. I had given up all 60 ticks of the NG profit and a little bit more.....

After slipping back into global sim mode, I noticed how simple the chart was and how even a baby could have traded it!

In retrospect, I realize I tried to be to cute, trying to hard to finesse it instead of just giving it room to breathe as they say. I was a little giddy from the NG trade and I think that contributed to a bit of carelessness on the CL stuff.

Regardless, the damn thing ran all the way to any possible target you may have picked out....a five dollar day...haven't seen that since the arab spring days.....and I saw a 20 dollar day back then....

Here's hoping tomorrow gives me a chance at even half of today's range....

No chart, NT is shut down and its getting late....

Cheers.

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 iqgod 
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Yesterday was a fat tail day for almost everything. None of the platforms have been trustable since past two days - not OEC trader, not T4 and not NT.

TraderFeed: Why This Market is Moving So Fast and Far: The Explosion of Pure Volatility

Nice journaling, Brian!

Every visit here is worth it.

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 Big Mike 
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iqgod View Post
Yesterday was a fat tail day for almost everything. None of the platforms have been trustable since past two days - not OEC trader, not T4 and not NT.

TraderFeed: Why This Market is Moving So Fast and Far: The Explosion of Pure Volatility

Nice journaling, Brian!

Every visit here is worth it.

Nothing against two site sponsors, but I've had zero problems with Sierra and IQFeed and IB.

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

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 steve2222 
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Nothing against two site sponsors, but I've had zero problems with Sierra and IQFeed and IB.

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

Agreed, absolutely zero issue with Sierra covering several instruments.

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 iqgod 
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Nothing against two site sponsors, but I've had zero problems with Sierra and IQFeed and IB.

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

Thanks for letting know that not all platforms were affected.

I had received this from the broker:


Quoting 
Experiencing Platform/Technology Issues?

We are sending you as a result of the fact that we have seen the S5 and other trading platforms fail to keep up with market volatility during fast markets. We are pushing our clearing firms to get to the bottom of these issues even though we know full well that technology failures occur across all industries; especially under heavy load like we have been seeing lately. We are pushing those responsible for this as hard as we can and are providing detailed reports of what we see and what you have reported to us. We are seeing issues on multiple platforms including S5 Trader, Ninja/CQG, CTS and others including data feed providers.

But I would still continue to support all three of them just because now that they know there is a issue they will not be leaving any stone unturned to fix the issue!

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  #89 (permalink)
 matevisky 
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iqgod View Post
Thanks for letting know that not all platforms were affected.

I had received this from the broker:



But I would still continue to support all three of them just because now that they know there is a issue they will not be leaving any stone unturned to fix the issue!

Had the same issue in the morning as I have been pointedr out in my journal. I am really considering to do something about it, the only thing I dont know what to do. My indicator set is on Ninja. So the question is that. Is that a datafeed issue, and the execution orders is in safe? If it is a datafeed issue only, than it is manageable to have an alternative connection. Question is that, if you have 2 connection in ninja, and one of them is lagging, how is ninja handling the problem?
For example, you are using AMP/CQG to execute order, and u are using IQfeed to get realtime data. Than if the CQG feed is lagging, than you will recieve the online data from IQFEED?

Anyhow... if someone has experience in this question, or can point out a forum to this, than dont hesitate.
@PandaWarrior : sorry for the offtopic!

Máté
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 PandaWarrior 
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Just to clarify, i did not have issues with NT, just that the price flash happened so fast on NG that NT could not get the target limit order in fast enough and price had already pulled back from that zone by the time the limit order was placed. It was literally a blink of an eye. The entire trade took 11 seconds according to NT trade log....most of that was me deciding to just close the trade manually once I saw what had happened....

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 PandaWarrior 
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First a couple of housekeeping items;

1. Someone asked me the other day what I would do if I won the combine from the journal contest. Short answer is: Trade it. Otherwise why bother. With that combine I would be looking to maximize the size potential.

2. I have not looked for a swing entry since the first once I mentioned in this thread. I found it boring at least for now. I like the movement intra day and look forward to each new trading session. I did not look forward to waiting a few days for an entry on the swing charts. And I completely forgot to check my positions each day. So no more swing trading for me at least for now.

Now the changes:

But first some history.

I spent a lot of time just trying to figure out how the market moves. I finally settled down and just decided to use the original style of market context tools and methods I learned originally back when I first started in the markets. They make the most sense to me. However, I wasted a lot of time jumping around from style to style and method to method. Some of those methods were incredibly silly. I remember one thing a buddy and I designed, we called it the Funky Method....because it was neon purple and green on a black background. It was pure scalping and as most things go, it worked ok but required lots of trades a day....neither of us were disciplined enough to trade that way!

I eventually settled on the 800 tick chart because @VinceVirgil used it during a period of time when it allowed the entire day to be shown on the chart and yet was smaller in size than the 5M chart. I liked it and have used it ever since. I've played around with the settings on the moving averages a bit, changed the colors when I got bored and for the most part, have really settled into the style and method I've been developing for myself over the last couple of years.

As time has gone on, I find I want to trade less and less each day in terms of the number of trade sequences I take. The less I trade, the better my PnL curve looks. Further, I've discovered a few things about myself these last couple of weeks. While the volatility was very quiet, I yearned for the days of high volatility to return. The slowness bored me and often times lured me into stupid behavior. It still does but not near as much as before. Now that the volatility is back, I find something odd happening, I do not like the uncertainty of where a run might end up....in other words, I prefer more methodical profit taking.....whether that's at a fixed target or its a fib expansion or a market structure level....I would rather take profit at some sort of logical place than let an open ended trade just run. Call it a weakness or whatever, its who I am currently.

It comes down to this: I am ok with the uncertainty of each trade being a winner or loser. I am not currently emotionally ok with the uncertainty of an open profit trade of say 70-80 ticks turning into a break even or worse a small loser. Especially when I can see a logical place to take profit in the 70-80 neighborhood.

Of course there are $5 days that can make your week or month. BUT at this point in my career and in my emotional development, I would rather be logical and make a single or a double every day instead of striking out a lot and then hit a home run now and then. The baseball metaphor isn't perfect but it works.

All this falls into the category of "know thyself".

As a trader, I think I finally know myself. I like the intra day action, I like a balance between known risk and perceived profit potential. I like closing out a trade having executed it according to some sort of plan.....I do not like relying on luck or an outlier to make my day, week or month.

Using my hard won knowledge, I've determined that around 3X risk is about where I need to be looking. On a "normal" day, this works well, is within the confines of "normal" market ranges and does not require outliers to achieve.

The objective is to do this and take the fewest trades possible each day while still giving myself the opportunity to maximize the opportunities presented.

So in the interest of fulfilling these objectives, I've made some further changes:

1. I have reduced the number of charts I use....I will no longer use the 800 tick chart. I am moving to the 5 minute as my smallest time frame. I'll have a 15M, a 60M and a daily of course. I will take trades on the 5M chart exclusively.

2. I have implemented a profit grid (PG)system. To complicated to go into here, but I have tested and tested over the last year or two and it works. I will be taking profit methodically within the confines of this grid. On outlier days, this looks childish, on normal days it looks brilliant.

3. I will enter each trade with my smallest size. Targets will be the PG levels and no more. If price runs out past those levels, then they run....so be it. This will help me be more consistent with trading the plan.

4. I will add to each trade ONLY if the trade is with trend and then only if there is significant room between the second entry and the PG level to obtain at least a 2X profit on the second entry price.

5. I will only add to the trade IF a legitimate second entry presents itself.

6. I will no longer use a BE stop unless price is at least 20 ticks away from my entry AND it has retested my entry at least once. These BE stops have been a horrible practice. They have saved me some losers to be sure....but they have prevented far more winners than losers. I will move my combined stop to BE once a second position has been entered as soon as possible. The goal here is to keep the combined entry at the same dollar risk as the first entry.

7. I will not trail stops any longer during the early stages of the trade. I call this the kill zone....some profit but not enough room to eliminate the noise and still have a decent profit locked in....Once price is closer to my target zones, I will trail but still give it room.....this is the only way I know to capture the bulk of a profit objective. Trailing to soon ALWAYS results in lost opportunity.

8. I do MUCH better on a weekly basis IF I walk away when I've had a good winner. I've reviewed my journals, my threads and my private blog....all confirm this....get a nice winner early, quit for the day....keep trading and I normally give most if not all of it back. I demonstrated that this week. Again, this falls in to the "know thyself" category. So I will no longer sit at the charts all day UNLESS I have not traded based on my rules. As a professional trader, I either trade my rules when they present or no trades at all.....and that can happen early or it could take a couple of hours depending on how the price action is setting up.

9. ALL stop losses are sunk costs. Treat them as such. R:R doesn't exist once the trade is live.

10. Counter trend trades are OK, small size. No adds, first available PG level, get out. At least 1X risk to consider. No exceptions. Prefer 2X if possible.

11. I will use the widest stop possible within my daily loss limit on the initial entry....this will be tightened up once price has met my trail criteria. Namely a second entry. That's about it....maybe BE once a test of the entry has been made and price is my favor quite a bit....otherwise. Just leave it alone.

What I have not changed:

1. My market context definitions.
2. My entry rules.
3. My market directional filters. They work....and are subjective as are most things.
4. My daily loss limit.
5. My weekly profit objective.
6. My money management rules.

And now the why:

1. I have noticed over time (I'm dense I know) that I often enter at the bottom of a move.....I get this right A LOT. Only to find I broke even on the day or minimized the profit potential by trailing to aggressively. Nine times out of ten, setting the stop and profit objective and walking away would have been the better course of action.

All my attempts to manage, think about or otherwise interfere with the trade resulted in sub optimum performance. ALL OF IT! Nothing I do outside of finding the lowest risk place to enter and logical place to exit is worth a damn. None of it. in the year and a half I have been mostly profitable, nothing has limited or reduced my profits more than trade management.

2. I am tired of sitting in a trade wondering if I should tighten my stop or not. Tired of wondering if this trade will run 200 ticks or not.

3. I'm tired of taking so many darn trades every day....and I really only take 5 or 6 serious trade attempts every day...sometimes more but usually only around 5-6. Sometimes it takes a couple of attempts to get it right...but this is a symptom of trying to be exactly right about the timing....which I am almost never exactly right.

4. But mostly I am tired of doing a review at the end of the day and seeing that my profit objectives have been obtained without me. Tired of knowing that EVERYTHING I do in between entry and exit is simply random guesswork.

Long post, but its been a long time coming. I know I can work within the confines of these guidelines. Each one has been something I have thought about at length or has been hovering around the shadows of my consciousnesses for a long time.

Here's to hard fought change......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #92 (permalink)
 ericbrown 
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All my attempts to manage, think about or otherwise interfere with the trade resulted in sub optimum performance. ALL OF IT! Nothing I do outside of finding the lowest risk place to enter and logical place to exit is worth a damn. None of it. in the year and a half I have been mostly profitable, nothing has limited or reduced my profits more than trade management.

Wonderfully said. I still struggle with this myself.

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