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The Pandawarrior Chronicles II


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The Pandawarrior Chronicles II

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  #101 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I'm not actually trading today, rather I'm adjusting to the new look and feel of my primary trading chart. I've used the 5M for a long time as a confirming type of chart but not as the primary for a long long time....so I figured I'd get used to it today and see how it goes...

It's different sitting here knowing I only need to make a decision once every 5 minutes. I kinda like that knowledge. On the other hand, boredom can set in even faster. So tomorrow when I start actually trading it, I'll be sure to have something else to do besides stare at the countdown timer at the bottom of the screen. I've set it to sound an alarm when the bar is almost done so that's enough to allow me to read, listen to music, do some push ups, etc.....without worrying about missing something.

On the other hand, my revised trading plan has worked pretty well so far this morning, PG1 was obtained and now PG2 looks likes its in play. And as I'm typing this, PG2 was obtained and now PG3 (not marked) is also in play.

EDIT: Were I in this with a runner, I'd be trailing the stop now at PG2.







And here is PG3 in play.



And PG3 hit. 110+ ticks from original entry area and around 90ish ticks from second entry opportunity.



And that would be the end of the trading day....I'll make some notes in my paper (evernote) journal and be done for the day.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #102 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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First journal entry in Evernote. I think I'm gonna really like this software. Its easy to use, syncs to the online verision and has a ton of useful applications...and its free...

Done for the day.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #103 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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So actually did take a trade not to long after I posted this morning. It was a counter trend trade or as I like to call it, a BTL trade. This called for smaller size, smaller stop and more aggressive profit protection. All of which I did.

Since on BTL trades, I require an exit at the first logical place to exit which I did at the 50% level which was also the prior PG1 level as well which often acts as resistance on BTL trades. The opposite MA also makes a good target for these trades. However, I normally choose the more conservative exit on these.

After closing the trade out, I had to leave the house and I didn't get back until a couple of hours ago.....finally just sat down to type these notes.

I've also decided not to mark exact trade locations any longer. Fact is, most times its an entry zone much like I've drawn on the chart today. It's why its called discretionary trading. What's important is that the zone is correctly identified and the risk is minimized if possible.....exit zones the same, exact price isn't important....exit logic is.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #104 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
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Great minds think alike!




Just now found your journal here. Glad you're back buddy.

 
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  #105 (permalink)
 deaddog 
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PandaWarrior View Post
It's different sitting here knowing I only need to make a decision once every 5 minutes. I kinda like that knowledge. On the other hand, boredom can set in even faster. So tomorrow when I start actually trading it, I'll be sure to have something else to do besides stare at the countdown timer at the bottom of the screen. I've set it to sound an alarm when the bar is almost done so that's enough to allow me to read, listen to music, do some push ups, etc.....without worrying about missing something.

If you have the time you can post your trades in real time.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #106 (permalink)
 iqgod 
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deaddog View Post
If you have the time you can post your trades in real time.

I used to think like that too... however there is something to be said about a switch getting flipped in your head once you have exposed yourself.

I think exposing yourself to the market in real-time takes concentrated effort and gathering vital pieces together. He isn't simply sitting there drumming his fingers even if he says he is bored.

Being correctly bored is an important part of successful trading.


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  #107 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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deaddog View Post
If you have the time you can post your trades in real time.

I'm trying to remember to do that....but honestly, I rarely remember to capture live trades....most of the time I'm feeling a little frazzled in a trade and only thinking about one thing.....

But I'll do my best from now on....

Thanks for reading...

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #108 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Lol, as soon as the trade was over, I remembered I'd promised to try and capture live trades, but like I said in an earlier post, the exact entry and exit aren't really all that important, what's really important is the logic for both....

So in keeping with that understanding, I've marked my entry zone with a green box....and here is the logic.

1. Price had broken the trend line....and while the London session was down, based on the 60M chart, I felt we would be going long at least early this morning....it was due for a break out of sorts.

2. All my long filters with respect to the 5M chart were long. Only thing required was to find a lower risk entry.

3. After the TL break, it pulled right back into the support zone. Ok to get long.

Exit Logic:

1. I used a profit grid (PG) from a different bar than normal to exit. Usually the OR determines the grid size but with the OR bar so large, the grid would be HUGE, so I used the prior bar and it worked pretty well....but I was waiting for the OR bar to form to determine the PG and it just kept getting bigger and bigger so I knew I needed to use the prior bar...so most of the trade, I was trying to determine where to take profits....I moved my target well out of the way until I could figure out where I wanted my grids to be and then I just closed the trade as it was already past the PG1 level....and that's where I always take my first profit.

I am more than likely done for the day, but I have a couple of hours to kill so I'll hang around and see if something develops. However, with huge OR bars, I have noticed that most of the time, that means a rotation day and I suck at those...we will see.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #109 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Today was inventory. I traded small and cautious before the number....Had a scratch and a small loser. Most of my trading criteria were long....but not really the way I like to see....then price went into a consolidation and the broke support.....Then just before the number, saw what I would I call a 50/50 trade. 2 of my 4 criteria were met for a short....which makes the trade 50/50....so I waited until seconds after the number to see how the ladder would respond and before I even registered that I knew it was short, I had clicked in and in a couple of seconds, price was as at +50 or so.....and then the unthinkable, a trail stop kicked in....I thought I had deleted all those damn things....but apparently not...and it moved to fast for me to keep moving it out of the way.....eventually I gave up and let it trail.....and I got like 30ish ticks out of it....but it went on to meet the profit grid objectives with no problem....leaving around 40 ticks or so on the table.

I instantly deleted the trail stop and checked to see if I had any others lurking around....I didn't and now I no longer have any auto trails working anywhere.

So then a trading buddy of mine got long way down at the bottom and scaled in and out all the way back up where it topped out and where I got short again....trouble was, my trading day was almost over and so I set a target of around 30 ticks and took off.....and again, left a ton of money on the table....

Once I finally logged back in, I made the decision to rearrange my schedule to at least allow myself to trade til noon. This will allow me to take advantage of opportunities as a professional trader....That being said, If my profit objectives are obtained, I still wrestle with the idea of trading longer and giving some or all of it back. But with regards to this, trading the higher time frame, using my 4 rules to enter a trade and knowing where I can take profit makes it less likely I will give all of it back....

So a profitable day made somewhat sour by the knowledge there was lots more and I actually sold very near the top of the sell off....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #110 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I've been watching and tracking how much value "macro or global" analysis helps or hurts my personal trading.

In other words, if I do much higher time frame analysis, say a daily, weekly, monthly type of analysis, does it help me in my intra day trading?

Or does it hinder me or even worse, cause me to do things that are long term advisable but short term stupid?

Here is my conclusion....

Macro analysis sucks.

It does not help me one iota....and in some cases causes me to over think things significantly.

Shorter term planning does have value....but since I am mostly a momentum hunter on an intra day time frame, global macro analysis is useless.....and i suspect is for most day traders judging by how many get it wrong in the near term.

Yes I look at recent daily bars, what did they do? Why did they do it? How could I have better anticipated those actions? These help in the short term but longer than a few days seems to simply be counter productive at best and an enormous time waster as well.

A few people have asked me over the years to define myself as a trader....and the best I can come up with is this:

I'm like a little puppy dog following the momentum around on a leash of price action clues....I go where its easiest to go and to go there the fastest. I'm not interested in always struggling against the pull of the leash.....I want the maximum amount of gain for the least amount of effort....darn that sounds lazy.....but its true....EDIT: and I'm not interested in needing to be right about where this sell off or rally might actually end before I start going the other way....too much work to "call the top or bottom"...that's an ego thing and my ego has a way of leading me down some dark alleys.....so follow the momentum....KISS

So gone are the days of killing myself trying to figure out what price will do next week or next month or even tomorrow...I care about what its doing right now.....and what it might do in the next hour or two....after that, I don't really care.....

This makes me happy.....I'm glad I did this work....to avoid unnecessary work tomorrow.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #111 (permalink)
 deaddog 
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Yes I look at recent daily bars, what did they do? Why did they do it? How could I have better anticipated those actions? These help in the short term but longer than a few days seems to simply be counter productive at best and an enormous time waster as well.

You are on the right track to go with the flow.

Trying to figure out "Why did they do it? How could I have better anticipated those actions?" will drive you crazy.

It is not a game of anticipation of what the market will do next, it's a game of reacting to what the market does now. You don't have to know why the price is moving you only have to know that it is moving and play the probabilities that it will continue that move.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #112 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Today was a kick in the balls. I made money but left SO much on the table and not because I had to leave or anything...the BE thing really kicked me in the nuts today......I made $500 but left $3300 on the table because I went BE instead of adding....

Tomorrow is a new chapter in my trading career. No more am I a fearful trader thinking every trade might come back on me....instead i press and press until it won't take it anymore......

I figured out that if I had scaled out and added back at each of my entries today, I would have made $4650 instead of the $500.....I can safely trade around 5 lots...now its time to use them...

The entries were near perfect entries and even though the price action was slow it was still in my favor....at no time was my original stop threatened.

On one trade after several BE attempts, I bailed on the trade once order flow started to go against me...and after price was in my favor 35ish ticks....but there was no plan based reason to exit....NONE....but I did. It was emotional capitulation.....the only reason. Frustrated in seeing price continually grinding my way only to see it once again near my ultimate targets and me having much less profit than I should have.....

So I got on the phone with a friend that scales and talked to him about how he did it and for feed back on the idea of controlling risk with both size and scaling in and out.....after that discussion and then some homework on my end, I think I've finally seen the light....

And I'm just uncomfortable enough to try this instead of what feels good and comfortable to me in the moment.....

And just as an aside, the BE thing I mentioned a few posts ago, I did get rid of the idea of going BE just because I was afraid....instead I was at BE once price had gone my way around 20 ticks....this was based on research around 18 months ago and it never dawned on me that research was outdated and flawed....So from now on, control risk with size and scaling in and out. I know how to do it....and I will...

I realize this goes back to the post I made a few days ago....and I understand the hypocrisy of today vs what I said I will be doing from now on.....I have made significant progress in the last few days....but today I think was the tipping point....I feel different inside....angry is part of it....but determined to do whatever it takes.....and means being FAR more aggressive when the reference points I depend on for trade location line up....and it means being far more aggressive as long as there is no reason to be in a trade the opposite direction....in all honesty, I get all kinds of heads up warning things could change......so as long as those heads up warnings are not present, no need to worry....just keep pressing....run up the score....not a single man left standing.....kill them all.....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #113 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Today was a kick in the balls. I made money but left SO much on the table and not because I had to leave or anything...the BE thing really kicked me in the nuts today......I made $500 but left $3300 on the table because I went BE instead of adding....

Tomorrow is a new chapter in my trading career. No more am I a fearful trader thinking every trade might come back on me....instead i press and press until it won't take it anymore......

I figured out that if I had scaled out and added back at each of my entries today, I would have made $4650 instead of the $500.....I can safely trade around 5 lots...now its time to use them...

The entries were near perfect entries and even though the price action was slow it was still in my favor....at no time was my original stop threatened.

On one trade after several BE attempts, I bailed on the trade once order flow started to go against me...and after price was in my favor 35ish ticks....but there was no plan based reason to exit....NONE....but I did. It was emotional capitulation.....the only reason. Frustrated in seeing price continually grinding my way only to see it once again near my ultimate targets and me having much less profit than I should have.....

So I got on the phone with a friend that scales and talked to him about how he did it and for feed back on the idea of controlling risk with both size and scaling in and out.....after that discussion and then some homework on my end, I think I've finally seen the light....

And I'm just uncomfortable enough to try this instead of what feels good and comfortable to me in the moment.....

And just as an aside, the BE thing I mentioned a few posts ago, I did get rid of the idea of going BE just because I was afraid....instead I was at BE once price had gone my way around 20 ticks....this was based on research around 18 months ago and it never dawned on me that research was outdated and flawed....So from now on, control risk with size and scaling in and out. I know how to do it....and I will...

I realize this goes back to the post I made a few days ago....and I understand the hypocrisy of today vs what I said I will be doing from now on.....I have made significant progress in the last few days....but today I think was the tipping point....I feel different inside....angry is part of it....but determined to do whatever it takes.....and means being FAR more aggressive when the reference points I depend on for trade location line up....and it means being far more aggressive as long as there is no reason to be in a trade the opposite direction....in all honesty, I get all kinds of heads up warning things could change......so as long as those heads up warnings are not present, no need to worry....just keep pressing....run up the score....not a single man left standing.....kill them all.....


awesome man that you've come to this realization. i'm still struggling with the same crap, moving stops to take me out of trades too early just because, etc. if you're willing to share any insight, i'd love to hear it.

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  #114 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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jackbravo View Post
awesome man that you've come to this realization. i'm still struggling with the same crap, moving stops to take me out of trades too early just because, etc. if you're willing to share any insight, i'd love to hear it.


I think I just did.....but here is the cliff notes version......don't trail, add....keep at it until it either reaches your target area, you run out of margin/risk capital/max size, or the trade fails.....keep your damn hand off the mouse.....it bites!

Simple but not easy.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #115 (permalink)
 deaddog 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I think I just did.....but here is the cliff notes version......don't trail, add....keep at it until it either reaches your target area, you run out of margin/risk capital/max size, or the trade fails.....keep your damn hand off the mouse.....it bites!

Simple but not easy.....

On the other hand you lost opportunity not money.

Did you follow your plan?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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 PandaWarrior 
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deaddog View Post
On the other hand you lost opportunity not money.

Did you follow your plan?

About 65% of it....I made money but it was the hardest money I've made in a while....and lost opportunity is often the most expensive loss there is.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 deaddog 
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PandaWarrior View Post
About 65% of it..

What part did you miss?
If it was accepting your risk and holding until you took a loss then you should be upset.

The next question you have to ask is why you didn't follow your plan?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #118 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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deaddog View Post
What part did you miss?
If it was accepting your risk and holding until you took a loss then you should be upset.

The next question you have to ask is why you didn't follow your plan?

I followed the plan....the plan was wrong.....the 35% was knowing it was wrong and doing it anyway.....and I ballbarked the percentages....

That wasn't the point...the point was the plan was wrong...my plan called for doing something that was inherently designed to limit profit.....and increase frustration....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 deaddog 
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That wasn't the point...the point was the plan was wrong...my plan called for doing something that was inherently designed to limit profit.....and increase frustration....

So when you change the plan will you be increasing risk?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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 PandaWarrior 
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deaddog View Post
So when you change the plan will you be increasing risk?

No.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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Today was a day I decided to push and make some money....this basically means I add when I want to trail.....keep adding if new opportunities present themselves and hold to further targets....

I did that today and instead of trailing out at BE, I added.....this meant that I was able to multiply my earnings instead of minimizing them.....I scaled out at +20 or so, added back on when it seemed appropriate and scaled out as price action dictated. At no point was my risk increased.....I did maintain risk on one of the scale in's...but that is acceptable.

I passed on a BTL trade back to the 50% level and the 60M MA....this was an obvious trade but I was gonna have to leave soon for a doctors appointment and I didn't want it in progress while I was away.

Net of 120 ticks today....best day in a while....and no really big runners....lots of scale outs because price didn't run all the way to the profit grids like I thought they might....they may have later on but since my NT refuses to log in and update my charts right now, the first pic I took early on will have to suffice for today's post. I marked it with Evernote by memory which is why its a bit odd looking....hopefully I'll be able to log in soon and I can update my charts on the day.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #122 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Here's my value add for today...

For those of you that like following energy and want to indulge in some fundamental reading, I've been reading this newsletter for a couple of years now....always lots of good news to look at....I don't use a single bit of it in my trading but its always nice to read about what you're trading.....

News | First Enercast Financial

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 Traderwolf 
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Was cleaning out some files this morning and found this and it reminded me of some posts you have made over the years about finding your own way.

Wolf


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  #124 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Finally logged in and updated my charts....here is the marked up chart with the exact details....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #125 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I've been reading John Mauldin for ten years....he is often early in his calls regarding macro events...but he's been right quite a bit.....

So agree or not, this piece is interesting reading for those who like global macro analysis....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #126 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I arrived at the charts a few minutes to late to catch the pre market selling....so I resolved to just wait out whatever was gonna happen next. You can see the notes on the chart, I started to get impatient and irritated I missed that short trade. It started to wear on me and I realized what was going on....I even noted it on the chart....I should have walked away for a bit....and I did go wake my kiddo up for school....but it wasn't long enough. I shorted in the hole....not necessarily a terrible trade, just not one of my plan trades.

I closed this trade at -11 knowing it was a not a plan trade....so then I waited some more.....and started getting impatient again.....I knew after the large OR bar, it might rotate for a while and it did, but it was slow....and that wears on me, one reason I couldn't trade ES or something like it.....

Anyway, I got long after the consolidation break out....if you can call it that, regardless I failed to wait again for the actual BTL trade setup. Why? Because I was afraid it would run without me, it didn't of course and there was no hint it might, but I was afraid....and I closed this one at -10. So down -21.

Finally the BTL trade setup, I took it and scaled out at +20 and let the rest run to PG1 where I exited the entire position....net now +50ish....

Took my kiddo to school at this point, came back to see a BTL short had occurred while I was gone and figured price might rotate BTL for while....time to get my journal on.

Did see the BTL long set up, but was not interested at this point, getting hungry and feeling a little bored....no state to trade in. However the SEL back to PG1 valid as always. Normally a great place to enter.

Got some food, fresh eyes and shorted near the top...-10 ticks....wasn't really willing to risk much here....some pressure on the long side and I don't think its quite ready to flush out if its going to.....

Took another shot at the short, +20 and it stalled right there so closed it out....

Long at .77.....break of the levels and the premise of the trade was the PG2 level but the gap fill at 81.03 was in between...so I trailed my stop just in case a reversal at the gap fill.....exited at +15

I've been at this for about 5 hours now....I'm tired.....up 70 ticks so time to quit for the day.


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 PandaWarrior 
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I made a few critical mistakes today:

1. I traded to long, especially once I figured out I was in a rotation day.

2. I traded to much trying to make something happen.

3. I didn't quit while I was ahead once I knew the rotation was happening.....

4. I kept hoping for a break out.....which we all know never happens when you need it!

5. I super imposed my view of what SHOULD be happening instead of just listening to ms market about what she was doing....and acting accordingly.

6. I over analyzed most of the day.

What I did right today:

1. I limited my max draw down to less than half of my real daily max.

2. I traded very small size....mostly one and two lots today. And only one lots once I figured out it was rotational.

3. I never closed a trade today because of fear, instead I let structure either take me out or I used a time filter....and I let structure dictate profit areas as well.

4. I closed trades manually once I knew they weren't working.

5. I traded the entire session today.....like a professional....

6. I didn't act on most of the analysis I did....

Net today, -30 ticks plus commissions....total of around -40....less than half my daily max draw down....

No charts today, I'm tired after a full day of trading a slow market, some honey do's and a nice long walk around the block.....I might post later tonight if I'm feeling better....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #128 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Here's the chart from today....in hindsight it's pretty obvious but in real time it was pretty darn hard.....thankfully I was long all day (thank you trading rules) other than the pre market gap fill, but it didn't help me any......I made one entry error with regards to not waiting for the set up....that's in the yellow box and it was a FOMO trade for sure....

After looking at the chart and my hand written notes, I realize some of my previous post was in error. I did make errors in closing trades. I don't really recall trailing stops, but its obvious I did.....if the stops weren't trailed, some of those losses would not have occurred....which brings up an interesting question, the divergence between my recall and what I know to be true based on where the fills were tells me stuff is happening I might not be fully aware of during the course of the trading day.

I know stuff like this happens in daily life. You do things that are second nature and later you don't remember doing them....I do this all the time driving.....I'll drive somewhere, be lost in thought and arrive at my destination without really knowing what went on between home and the destination....this might be funny in non trading life but... with regards to trading, it's dangerous to the account. This also tells me I moved stops so much that it's second nature and I need to be VERY aware of it from now on.


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  #129 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Spent the day scalping for the most part, 3-5-10 ticks here and there....its exhausting. Meanwhile I missed the NG trade of the week....and made 8 handles long in SIM on ES....I'm thinking of using the new combine to trade ES....but only thinking.....Anyway, made about 40 ticks scalping around prior to the inventory number....lost a few after the number, then spent the rest of the morning waiting around on FOMC....ES fell out of bed without me....and CL followed a few minutes later, also without me...tried a couple of shorts in the hole, one went +20ish and reversed to stop out....the other stopped out....

I had a one shot at a nice long and I hesitated and ended up with a much worse entry than I could have had....which resulted in reduced profit and a stop out on the second lot....so a wash trade. Had I gotten it right, many more options would have been available for the second lot exit...as it was, I shot myself in the foot with the momentary hesitation....and yes I could have clicked the button, but I rarely do that and its second nature to not chase....in this case it would have been better to just click in....

I've been trading 1 lot lately. I don't like it much at all, so much easier to use a scalp trade plus a runner.....and the PnL curve looks so much better. I think I'll be going back to using at least 2 lots most of the time. At the same time, when I'm not winning, its easier to take the trade knowing its small size and thats been important the last two days....not a lot of confidence in the follow through from the signals so taking them anyway, adding if possible but basically probing around looking for some momo....

Right up against the daily range today which explains the resistance up there, still the chart was long and there were a couple of opportunities...better execution needed though.

ES led CL today especially as FOMC neared....interesting dynamic there....not sure if its meaningful or not....

Ended the day basically flat.....not to bad considering how awful the trading day was for my style. My MP buddy made some money today though....

One last thing, I've been thinking I need to trade longer, take advantage of every opportunity. So this last week and this week, I've been doing that, and once again, the principals I've espoused for so long are demonstrated again...

1. Decision fatigue sets in for me at about 3.5-4.5 hours. The longer I trade the worse it gets. I begin losing inhibitions at around 3.5 and at 4.5, near impossible for me to control. Which means more impulsive trades....not good. I've given it about a week doing this...
2. At least on CL, I can make my money fairly early and stop....there is opportunity to be sure later on, BUT it does seem its harder to come by....this might be my fatigue telling me this but its true for me anyway.

Tomorrow I will return to my "normal" trading hours. Come what may, its the best for me mentally and emotionally. I just don't have what it takes to be "in the zone" for 6 solid hours.....


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  #130 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Did I mention I was looking forward to the weekend? Pretty tired this week....Need some rest....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #131 (permalink)
 Scalpingtrader 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Did I mention I was looking forward to the weekend? Pretty tired this week....Need some rest....

great thing about trading:
It's not about the hours you put in but about the quality of decisions you make when you put in the screentime.
Thus, treating it like an office-job would be counterproductive to most people I think, as (you described it, I know it myself for a fact) decisions tend not to get better with the hours we are sitting there...

I however see this as a chance - more free time without feeling bad about not "working"

P.S.: thanks for journaling, I know you do this for yourself mainly but you should know that others are benefiting as well.

ST

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  #132 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Scalpingtrader View Post
great thing about trading:
It's not about the hours you put in but about the quality of decisions you make when you put in the screentime.
Thus, treating it like an office-job would be counterproductive to most people I think, as (you described it, I know it myself for a fact) decisions tend not to get better with the hours we are sitting there...

I however see this as a chance - more free time without feeling bad about not "working"

P.S.: thanks for journaling, I know you do this for yourself mainly but you should know that others are benefiting as well.

ST

Indeed...and thank you for the kind words....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #133 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Long day today....spent a couple hours chatting with a trading friend today and then got a call from my daughters school, my kiddo was having some health issues...spent the rest of the day dealing with that and a couple of other things....thankfully every thing is fine....but I'm tired and don't feel like doing a full write up...

I lost some money today in NG...got whipsawed in the news....its ok, it happens, the loss was small so no big deal...

CL tried my patience today....I think I broke even....had a big winner right off the bat, then gave most of it back......

Today was my last day trading the entire session.....I will trade while I'm feeling good and have plenty of energy....then pack it in for the day....

Net loss today with NG.....

Here's to a better day tomorrow.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #134 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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i get this from John Mauldin.....its a long read but well worth it...

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #135 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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It's the end of the journal contest...we've seen quite a lot of good work with the journals...I confess I haven't read many of them. For the most part, other people's journals often times conflict with what I do....so no need to have that input. At the same time, the journals should be for the trader not for other traders but I recognize that sometimes what you post might help others along the way and for that we should all be grateful.

An interesting thing happened with the contest. I got a few PM's asking me for my vote and a couple of people seemed like they stepped up their posting in other threads so the link in their signature box would be spread around a bit more. And some people posted the thanks button in the chat box.....

To me, the contest is about adding value to the reader....as well as yourself. And PM's and chat box posts asking for thanks aren't adding value to anyone. I posted in my thread almost exclusively and I think I may have gotten the most journal views of all the journals. Why I have no idea, my writing sucks......I know I started this thread for the express purpose of the journal contest and was quite surprised it's gotten as many votes as it has....although at least 3 people removed their thanks...not sure about that....seems odd....must have pissed them off at some point. I removed my thanks from one as well but it was after the constant asking for thanks.....to be fair, I did ask a couple of friends to thank me and they did but they would have anyway I suppose.

Regardless, its been both fun and tiring to post everyday again....but I suspect I will cease posting here everyday and provide a weekly wrap up on Friday's. I maintain a blog which is really for my own benefit whereas this thread is a lot more public....and writing for the public does seem to put a bit of strain on my limited mental capacity. I feel like I need to write for an audience instead of for myself and thats counter productive to my trading.

Now to the charts....

A good day today....short before the open...80.20 was the logical place for it to hold once 80.40 had been broken and it didn't, so I shorted in the hole, made 45 ticks or so....just as price was approaching 79.50 area....this is the DB zone and I figured here it would pause and it did....after waiting a bit....2 hours essentially, I got long 79.73 and captured another 45 ticks back to the mid way point and the PG1. I took the trade off a bit before the PG as there was some possible resistance prior to that but it didn't matter, price made it to the PG no problem.

I'm done for the day, well before the fatigue sets in...have a lot to do today....taking my pop to Mexico for some meds, getting ready for the holiday bash tonight and probably go have a nice starbucks at some point today.

My charts are a bit different today as I am showing the contextual charts as well as the 5M chart. I also added a 10 range chart just for a slightly different look as well...sometimes those range charts really nail the ledges and levels better than a time based chart.

Take care and have a good weekend.










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  #136 (permalink)
 deaddog 
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....but I suspect I will cease posting here everyday and provide a weekly wrap up on Friday's.

And here we were hoping to get a daily update on how you make out trading the combo.

I would hope all the winners would journal their combo experiences.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #137 (permalink)
 iqgod 
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deaddog View Post
And here we were hoping to get a daily update on how you make out trading the combo.

I would hope all the winners would journal their combo experiences.

... some already do.

But finally its each trader's decision and prerogative. Trading is all about having your priorities right. The combine is a serious attempt, and journalling takes lot of time and hard work and sometimes can even act as a distraction from the real goals. However one thing we can be sure of - Brian's updates, whether they come daily or weekly will always be worth looking forward to.


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  #138 (permalink)
 deaddog 
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iqgod View Post
... some already do.

But finally its each trader's decision and prerogative. Trading is all about having your priorities right. The combine is a serious attempt, and journalling takes lot of time and hard work and sometimes can even act as a distraction from the real goals. However one thing we can be sure of - Brian's updates, whether they come daily or weekly will always be worth looking forward to.

I know you do. One of the reasons you got one of my few votes.

I may be wrong but it doesn't seem like a screen shop of the summary and some comments after the days trading would be that distracting. You know better than I would.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
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  #139 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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deaddog View Post
And here we were hoping to get a daily update on how you make out trading the combo.

I would hope all the winners would journal their combo experiences.


If and when I win the combine and if and when I trade the combine, I will journal it here....I haven't decided if I'm gonna give it away or trade it....If I do trade it, I will be trading either ES or perhaps ES and TF, if TST has TF available by then. I'd heard they were working to bring TF to the combines.......

But my regular trading will be reduced to weekly updates....I still can't figure out why anyone actually reads the stuff I post. I read it later and it's just not that good....there are no real insights, no real tactical stuff, no trade calling, no macro analysis, no bragging about how I called this or that high or low...no attempt to prove how right I am about all the above, no nothing....its just my trades and my thoughts about either the trades I took or some general trading thought.

This is my 4th journal here, and people just keep reading...I don't get it...

Anyway, thanks for reading.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #140 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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PandaWarrior View Post
If and when I win the combine and if and when I trade the combine, I will journal it here....I haven't decided if I'm gonna give it away or trade it....If I do trade it, I will be trading either ES or perhaps ES and TF, if TST has TF available by then. I'd heard they were working to bring TF to the combines.......

But my regular trading will be reduced to weekly updates....I still can't figure out why anyone actually reads the stuff I post. I read it later and it's just not that good....there are no real insights, no real tactical stuff, no trade calling, no macro analysis, no bragging about how I called this or that high or low...no attempt to prove how right I am about all the above, no nothing....its just my trades and my thoughts about either the trades I took or some general trading thought.

This is my 4th journal here, and people just keep reading...I don't get it...

Anyway, thanks for reading.....

Since you don't really seem to know, here's the reason:

"its just my trades and my thoughts about either the trades I took or some general trading thought. "

That's all people need or want. It's quite good enough....

They can take what they get from that and put something in it to use. And it's real. That's all. What else would someone want?

Keep it up. You're doing a good job.

Bob.

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  #141 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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PandaWarrior View Post
If and when I win the combine and if and when I trade the combine, I will journal it here....I haven't decided if I'm gonna give it away or trade it....If I do trade it, I will be trading either ES or perhaps ES and TF, if TST has TF available by then. I'd heard they were working to bring TF to the combines.......

But my regular trading will be reduced to weekly updates....I still can't figure out why anyone actually reads the stuff I post. I read it later and it's just not that good....there are no real insights, no real tactical stuff, no trade calling, no macro analysis, no bragging about how I called this or that high or low...no attempt to prove how right I am about all the above, no nothing....its just my trades and my thoughts about either the trades I took or some general trading thought.

This is my 4th journal here, and people just keep reading...I don't get it...

Anyway, thanks for reading.....

I can't speak for others, but I have enjoyed reading your journals..and I have gleamed some good info as well. I hope you continue to keep posting.

Failure is not an option
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  #142 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I've been looking at 30M charts as my primary trading chart. Currently I five minute chart but I want to reduce the number of trades I take and increase the distance I let the trades run....and higher time frame charts seem to be the way to do that....

So I want input in the following areas;

1. Overall Advisability of using this high of time frame in intra day trading.
2. Stop consideration vs expected reward....doing some historical look backs, reward can be in often times in the 90-150 tick range most of the time....not talking about the outlier days where it runs 300-400 ticks.
3. Trade placement....In other words, if you currently trade a 30 minute or larger time frame, would you be so kind as to perhaps post a pic or two of how you enter trades....and I don't care which market you trade....I suspect I may need to revise my entry technique a bit which is why I ask.

4. Any other thoughts you may have with regards to this subject.

This will be something that occurs over time....I want to ease into it.....so I'll have time to think about and digest whatever input I get.

Thanks in advance.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #143 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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If you use value as shown by a volume value channel then the timeframe becomes a secondary consideration as a 5min, 10 min or 30 min interval will show the same levels.

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 GFIs1 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I've been looking at 30M charts as my primary trading chart. ..

1. Overall Advisability of using this high of time frame in intra day trading.
...
4. Any other thoughts you may have with regards to this subject.

Thanks in advance.

Hi Panda

First - congrats to your tremendous result in the october contest!
Your journals are well visited, commented and followed.

You ask here about bigger time frames - like 30min or higher:
In my journal you find nearly 3 years of trading the 30min (only intraday)
with a maximum of 3 trades per week. All trades are announced before
taking the trade with entry and exit time.
There are charts to find as well as all the results by day, week and year.

Have a great weekend
GFIs1

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  #145 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I've been looking at 30M charts as my primary trading chart. Currently I five minute chart but I want to reduce the number of trades I take and increase the distance I let the trades run....and higher time frame charts seem to be the way to do that....

So I want input in the following areas;

1. Overall Advisability of using this high of time frame in intra day trading.
2. Stop consideration vs expected reward....doing some historical look backs, reward can be in often times in the 90-150 tick range most of the time....not talking about the outlier days where it runs 300-400 ticks.
3. Trade placement....In other words, if you currently trade a 30 minute or larger time frame, would you be so kind as to perhaps post a pic or two of how you enter trades....and I don't care which market you trade....I suspect I may need to revise my entry technique a bit which is why I ask.

4. Any other thoughts you may have with regards to this subject.

This will be something that occurs over time....I want to ease into it.....so I'll have time to think about and digest whatever input I get.

Thanks in advance.

My question would be..what is making you want to change your system? Are you not getting results from what you are doing now?
It would seem switching to a 30 minute timeframe would involve a whole new learning curve. Are you looking to evolve to more of a Swing trader?
Besides utilizing a 30 minute chart for trend purposes, it would seem difficult to time trades without having a huge stop loss. When Cl takes off..it can move 30-100 ticks in a matter of minutes..How would you catch that move on a 30 minute chart?
How many times have you watched CL move up a 100 ticks in a 20 minute or less timespan..then suddenly reverse the entire move. How could you exploit that frequent occurrence by looking at a 30 minute chart?

As far as longer term moves, we have seen CL try to go up the last few weeks..Sometimes it makes 200 ticks and then comes down 300 or more. How can one predict into the future what this instrument will ultimately do over a period of several days ?
If you are a having a semblance of success where you are averaging enough weekly ticks that having a moderate contract size would bring you a nice income...why change to something that ultimately is very hard to predict over longer time frames?

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 Tap In 
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PandaWarrior View Post
So I want input in the following areas;

1. Overall Advisability of using this high of time frame in intra day trading.

You are a better trader than I am so you can take this with a grain of salt, but why do you want to reduce the number of trades? I read this idea a lot on the forum.

All things being equal, for a competent trader more trades will result in higher account ROE. I'm not suggesting scalping, but it seems a professional trader should instead try to find ways to maximize their opportunities, not reduce them.

Anyway, thanks for your journal. I enjoy the reading.

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trendisyourfriend View Post
If you use value as shown by a volume value channel then the timeframe becomes a secondary consideration as a 5min, 10 min or 30 min interval will show the same levels.

Thanks for the input....but I'm a very visual person....could you post a pic or two with explanations as you see it? I would appreciate it.

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GFIs1 View Post
Hi Panda

First - congrats to your tremendous result in the october contest!
Your journals are well visited, commented and followed.

You ask here about bigger time frames - like 30min or higher:
In my journal you find nearly 3 years of trading the 30min (only intraday)
with a maximum of 3 trades per week. All trades are announced before
taking the trade with entry and exit time.
There are charts to find as well as all the results by day, week and year.

Have a great weekend
GFIs1

I'll look at it but I don't know which journal is yours...could you post a link to the most relevant posts please? Also, why only 3 max trades per week?

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 PandaWarrior 
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Tap In View Post
You are a better trader than I am so you can take this with a grain of salt, but why do you want to reduce the number of trades? I read this idea a lot on the forum.

All things being equal, for a competent trader more trades will result in higher account ROE. I'm not suggesting scalping, but it seems a professional trader should instead try to find ways to maximize their opportunities, not reduce them.

Anyway, thanks for your journal. I enjoy the reading.

Reducing the number of trades reduces the likely hood of the trader behaving in a stupid manner....small charts begat lots of trades.....and honestly, most of those trades are ill advised even though some of them work. The idea would be to reduce the number of trades per instrument and increase the number of instruments....and since the higher time frames reduce the number of new trades AND increases the potential for larger trades, it stands to reason a trader should be able to add to the trades as it progresses and have a greater chance the trades work....

Essentially I am looking for fewer but larger trades....

Hope that answers your questions....


and thanks for reading....

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lancelottrader View Post
My question would be..what is making you want to change your system? Are you not getting results from what you are doing now?
It would seem switching to a 30 minute timeframe would involve a whole new learning curve. Are you looking to evolve to more of a Swing trader?
Besides utilizing a 30 minute chart for trend purposes, it would seem difficult to time trades without having a huge stop loss. When Cl takes off..it can move 30-100 ticks in a matter of minutes..How would you catch that move on a 30 minute chart?
How many times have you watched CL move up a 100 ticks in a 20 minute or less timespan..then suddenly reverse the entire move. How could you exploit that frequent occurrence by looking at a 30 minute chart?

As far as longer term moves, we have seen CL try to go up the last few weeks..Sometimes it makes 200 ticks and then comes down 300 or more. How can one predict into the future what this instrument will ultimately do over a period of several days ?
If you are a having a semblance of success where you are averaging enough weekly ticks that having a moderate contract size would bring you a nice income...why change to something that ultimately is very hard to predict over longer time frames?

I'm not changing my method...I'm adding to it....by looking at longer time frames, I want to increase my hold times for sure, not as a swing trader though...but more of an intra day swing trader, something I've said I am but continue to fall short of actually being one.

The questions you ask are the ones I am looking to answer, I don't have the answers today....and I do not intend to predict what CL will do several days in the future. As I stated in my post, this is something I am looking to grow into.....it might take several months or it might now happen at all....or it may happen next week if I have an aha moment....not likely, but possible....

Thanks for the input, I appreciate it....

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PandaWarrior View Post
I'll look at it but I don't know which journal is yours...could you post a link to the most relevant posts please? Also, why only 3 max trades per week?

One explanation and the link to the journal here:


Original idea behind the system was to find the time during a weekday where with high probability are repeated
patterns in the instrument to earn some points. All entries and exits are to the 30 min. chart - automated
as a market order to the second...

First I had a one trade per day attempt. After a while I checked the daily results and found out that
three days were sufficient while 2 other days (normally Tuesday and Thursday) did not add points
to the total result. So I skipped those days as part of homo oeconomicus.

I will try to find the most important posts and list them here.

GFIs1

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 trendisyourfriend 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Thanks for the input....but I'm a very visual person....could you post a pic or two with explanations as you see it? I would appreciate it.

Here are two charts showing the ES and using a weekly value channel. Both charts show the same information in terms of value making the interval a secondary consideration in your decision making.


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 tturner86 
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@PandaWarrior if I was gonna be beat for first place, I am honored to be beaten by you.

When I first came to futures.io (formerly BMT) your journal was one of the first I read. Even though our style may differ and even our opinions my differ, I found great amounts of info and insight that is invaluable. I highly suggest anyone just starting to read through your journal and blog.

Thank you.

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tturner86 View Post
@PandaWarrior if I was gonna be beat for first place, I am honored to be beaten by you.

When I first came to futures.io (formerly BMT) your journal was one of the first I read. Even though our style may differ and even our opinions my differ, I found great amounts of info and insight that is invaluable. I highly suggest anyone just starting to read through your journal and blog.

Thank you.

Thank you for your kind words.....

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I will start the futures.io (formerly BMT) journal contest combine on Monday....I'll post the TST trade report here daily.

A large measure of success will be the number of trades I take every day. Ideally there will be one or two at most....and most of those trades should be in the first hour or two beginning 30 minutes prior to the pit session open.

I'll be starting the combine with 3 lots and adding a lot every $1000 per contract of profit.

I hope everyone that won is doing well with their combines.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I should mention I've been doing some time of day analysis per @GFIs1 work in his thread....to be fair I was a bit skeptical about his one trade per day thing.....but to my surprise, after looking at a few months worth of charts, there is in fact a time of day that best fits my style of trading. There are other good times to trade, BUT they are antithetical to my style and one reason I trade so poorly during those times.

It's crazy its taken me this long to look at this kind of data. But now that I have, I know that at least for the current market state, the hours between 6:30AM and 8:00AM are not only the best times to trade for the most part but also suit my style the best.

Better yet, it seems that if conditions aren't perfect for me during this time period, I can more or less just not trade that day.

And even better, an average MFE number appeared during this analysis.....in looking at this data, I discovered there is a number that seems to be the best AVERAGE target in terms of ticks.....meaning I can generally look forward to somewhere between 40 and 90 ticks on average from a typical Pandawarrior set up.

Next I looked at the idea of scaling in and out vs an AIAO scenario. The scale in and out was designed to utilize a couple of different ideas:

1. Take some risk off early. Say 20ish ticks. Take some more off at a dynamic target....these are part of my method....then take the rest off when the "trend" is over....also defined by my method. The equity curve does even out a bit with this scenario....but the real pay off comes when the first scale is off and another entry is available AND price travels far enough to make adding on worthwhile AND the trader is able to capture the bulk of the outliers. The profits can really pile up using this approach.

However, for this study, I did not add on at presented opportunities. Instead the trade was simply scaled out at +20, a dynamic target and then the remainder left to run as far as possible before the trend reversed.

A drawback to this approach is this, sometimes the initial impulse move which is what I often try to catch, is sometimes the only real thing that happens and the add on's end up costing money or not making much at all....in this case, making a graceful exit can be somewhat difficult without some serious nerves of steel.

A further drawback is that a great deal of the pay off is reliant on what is often an outlier event....which seems to happen on CL with some degree of random regularity, say once a week. And by outlier, I mean something on the order of 200 or more ticks from entry. Of course the issue here is the issue of randomness....if and when????? The when seems to be the largest issue for me....I know it will run occasionally.....but sometimes that happens late in the day and sometimes it happens first thing in the morning....however, the normal rotation of around 50-90 ticks is much more regular with respect to how my method works and how the setups look.

This look back was done with never moving stops except in the case where it would be obvious the trend would be over if "X" happened. This sometimes produced profit on the runners and sometimes not.

The AIAO approach was based on the exact same entry but no scaling in or out and never moving stops except in the case where the trend was over. Targets were fixed across all days and I used an average of the previous 30 days worth of set ups where the set up occurred within the above mentioned time frame AND conformed to my written rules for initiating a trade.

I limited the study to a single trade per day as long as it conformed to the rules AND it was initiated and finished during the hours mentioned above. No adding allowed for this study although opportunities were presented....this would have skewed the results....

In the end, taking profit at a fixed number all in all out triumphed over the scale out method even with allowing the scale out approach to catch the random outlier trade. Adding to these trades would of course tilt the scales back in favor of the runner approach but the purpose was not to see if I could out perform all in all out by catching the occasional runner AND scaling into that runner but rather to see if I could out perform using set targets vs scaling out with an unlimited runner in the mix.

Both ideas made money. But all in all out won handily. Moreover, it took essentially the exact same amount of draw down because the trades that failed failed with both ideas at the same point. So AIAO overcame the losers much faster.

Average hold times ended up being around 45 minutes with the shortest hold time being 30ish minutes and the longest being nearly two hours. Obviously shorter is better!

The major issue with all this was entry.....get it right and all is well, get it wrong and there could be quite a bit of pain prior to pay off.....therefore, I initiated a max risk rule for this study of 30 ticks.....and using this, draw down was quite manageable and frankly, using fixed entry rules (mechanical) was rarely hit based on the entry process rules. This resulted in an R:R of around 2:1 to 2.5:1. More than enough to satisfy the combine requirements.

So for the purposes of this combine, I will be a lazy SOB....one or two trades per day max in the first 90ish minutes, no trade if set up isn't perfect, fixed target, no stop movement and no auto trail stops. Add a contract at $1000 profit per contract. Then stop for the day.....

I should also add, no other charts used. No context, no higher time frame, nothing....just the 5M chart with its indicator set. How is this possible? Its based on a single idea, momentum....higher time frames often belie the intra day momentum.....and having a short bias because the over all trend is down when the momentum is clearly long is not a good place to be operating from. I can see the HTF from the indicator set I use. So using some basic directional filters, a very fast decision can be made about which way to trade and as long as those conditions remain the same, that direction stays in effect.

I have also made the decision to eliminate ES and NG from this combine even though I mentioned I would trade ES during this combine if I decided to trade it. Neither of them suit me in terms of how I like to trade....further, I am intimately familiar with CL and how it moves intra day.....and while I have a bit of a feel for NG, ES is simply outside my comfort zone and NG is often times very erratic even though once it gets going on its trend, it tends to keep going, its the 3-5 false starts that can hurt you.

So this ten day combine should result in no more than 20 trades, and if successful, somewhere north of $12,000 in profit depending on how fast I get to add lots.

I've set the bar pretty high in terms of expectations and pretty low in terms of what it is I need to do to win. I essentially need to make one or two decisions per day....and after that, just wait. Assuming CL continues on a similar course with regards to daily ranges, it should work out. If it contracts a bit, I may need to up the size and reduce the targets to maintain the same numbers.

I'm sure there will be questions regarding all this....please PM those questions to me....I will quote and answer them if relevant to the community. Otherwise I will keep them private.....one thing I do not wish is to have a bunch of people trying to find fault with the concepts in a public fashion.....I will not respond to public negativity in any manner.....I've done the proof of concept and now its time to try it live.

Thanks to @GFIs1 for the idea....he's using 30M charts to do more or less the same thing but I couldn't adapt the 30M chart to my ideas at least not yet. Still working on it.

I won't be trading tomorrow as I have a couple of extended family members quite sick with serious health issues and will be visiting them tomorrow.

Cheers.

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 GFIs1 
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Quite brave to implement a new concept for the first combine!
With your experience plus the tests you did it looks great to succeed though.
Wishing you a good phase in your instrument(s) to see the concept
working well.

GFIs1

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 cejstrup 
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Really looking forward to this. In all my trading, testing and analysis I've never been able to make either scale in/out work better that to just take it all off at once.

But my main problem is my win pct is below 50% ,so I can't roll over a combine without custom parameters. And this is costing me extra pr combine.

Can't wait to see how it goes. I know it can be done,I'm just not at a point where I can do it..Yet

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 bobwest 
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Really good job of setting out your parameters.

As you said, a good entry is the thing. Then, with small risk (contract size) and clear rules of what to do in the trade, you should be quite successful.

I'm looking forward to following along.

Good luck with it.

Bob.

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 PandaWarrior 
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GFIs1 View Post
Quite brave to implement a new concept for the first combine!
With your experience plus the tests you did it looks great to succeed though.
Wishing you a good phase in your instrument(s) to see the concept
working well.

GFIs1

not really a new concept, mostly a limiting of the trading to specific hours and specific trade management ideas....


The rest is just doing what I normally do...

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cejstrup View Post
Really looking forward to this. In all my trading, testing and analysis I've never been able to make either scale in/out work better that to just take it all off at once.

But my main problem is my win pct is below 50% ,so I can't roll over a combine without custom parameters. And this is costing me extra pr combine.

Can't wait to see how it goes. I know it can be done,I'm just not at a point where I can do it..Yet

The lower win rate is fine as long as you win more than you lose in terms of dollars....so if you are risking 1:1, then you are screwed. But if you are at 1.5:1 or better, you should be fine....BUT to win within the combine parameters, I would recommend at least 2:1 or better.

The other consideration is this: Is your win rate a function of the system being followed with discipline and that is the actual win rate or are you taking trades outside the system? If its the latter, you can make improvements over time about how you trade within the system guidelines....and this will require some work on your emotional makeup....something thats difficult at best.....

If its the former, then perhaps the combine isn't the best place for your system to function.....in that case, you may consider spending some time working on a system that will work within the combine rules....and leave the other system to trade your own money.

And for the record, my personal win rate is around 47% on a per trade basis....this includes those trades you might classify as impulse, revenge, impatient, fear based, etc....of which there is more than I care to admit. But my personal daily win rate is around 70% most of the time. So for me, improving my intra day win rate really comes down to limiting the number of trades as I generally make worse and worse decisions as the day wears on.....if I can get it above 50-60%, I'd be thrilled.

Cheers..

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bobwest View Post
Really good job of setting out your parameters.

As you said, a good entry is the thing. Then, with small risk (contract size) and clear rules of what to do in the trade, you should be quite successful.

I'm looking forward to following along.

Good luck with it.

Bob.

Another big thing is trade management. As I have noted many times before, trade management has cost me more money than a good entry has ever made me.....I seem to have a decent knack of picking good exit points....but holding to that point has always been the issue....so this 5M experiment is based almost exclusively on NO trade management......so hopefully I'll be able to report good results by doing less of everything!

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 cejstrup 
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PandaWarrior View Post
The lower win rate is fine as long as you win more than you lose in terms of dollars....so if you are risking 1:1, then you are screwed. But if you are at 1.5:1 or better, you should be fine....BUT to win within the combine parameters, I would recommend at least 2:1 or better.

The other consideration is this: Is your win rate a function of the system being followed with discipline and that is the actual win rate or are you taking trades outside the system? If its the latter, you can make improvements over time about how you trade within the system guidelines....and this will require some work on your emotional makeup....something thats difficult at best.....

If its the former, then perhaps the combine isn't the best place for your system to function.....in that case, you may consider spending some time working on a system that will work within the combine rules....and leave the other system to trade your own money.

And for the record, my personal win rate is around 47% on a per trade basis....this includes those trades you might classify as impulse, revenge, impatient, fear based, etc....of which there is more than I care to admit. But my personal daily win rate is around 70% most of the time. So for me, improving my intra day win rate really comes down to limiting the number of trades as I generally make worse and worse decisions as the day wears on.....if I can get it above 50-60%, I'd be thrilled.

Cheers..

It's the actual win rate. It's around 45-47% in that range. I didn't take any trade outside the system. I managed to get a rollover and was actually up a lot at one point. But then I hit a losing streak.

My plan is to try and wrap the system into some other signals and only take trades when there's confluence of 2 or more. In the combine I only took 1 max 2 trades per day. Going forward 2 will still be the max,but I will have less signals go from so I need to be extra careful to only pick the best entries.

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 lancelottrader 
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PandaWarrior View Post
So for me, improving my intra day win rate really comes down to limiting the number of trades as I generally make worse and worse decisions as the day wears on.....if I can get it above 50-60%, I'd be thrilled.

Cheers..

I have found, when I review my performance, is that most of my wins occur during the opening hour of an instrument. But as I continue to trade, I have often given it all back. I do like, in CL, around 11 am est, since there is often some big move around that time as well. I probably should limit my trades to a few in the opening hour and then possibly if I get a good setup at that 11 am time .

Anyhow, I wish you all the best in your combine and I'm sure you will do well.

Failure is not an option
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 PandaWarrior 
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Top step hasn't posted their trade report yet and I'm out of time for the evening. I'll edit this post tomorrow or whenever they put up the report....so for now, here's day one of the combine.....

It was BTL day. I took the correct BTL trade, held it while it did the slow motion crude creep until it closed OTL, I trailed it out and took the OTL long and was promptly stopped out and the original BTL short trade finished nicely without me. MFE was +30. A good case to simply let it play out but the premise of the trade was no longer valid. No regrets about this trade sequence. I would do it again tomorrow...hopefully with different results! I did have long targets in the 80.00 area to look for.

Forced to let the move play out at this point....to much risk chasing it although in this case it would have been fine. You never know and you only look foolish in hindsight!

After a bit, a chance to recoup my losses presented, I took the trade and exited at a point where my combine day went green. In this case, I am justifying this early exit for a couple of reasons....1. I am trading a short combine, and while I feel this rule is completely arbitrary and in no way reflects real trading, you MUST be green 55% of the trading days. So in one respect, being green today is part of the overall winning strategy. 2. Price had gone quite a ways and in general, I was not expecting it to continue without a major pullback, which did not actually happen. In fact, I was expecting the location where I exited to be more or less the support for a major pull back leg. Again, this did not happen. And 3, I was nearly out of time this morning.

So while the PnL looks weak and my exits look weak, in fact, I traded this day nearly perfectly according to plan. To have traded otherwise would have resulted in perhaps a nice winner but process would have been severely violated and in this game, process must come before profit. And in this case, process did not win.

I would have liked to present a massively profitable day today as it appears obviously easy to make some nice coin today, but these kinds of days happen....and so must be presented along with the days that do go as hoped.

On a side note, I wish to god I could undo the damage done inside my trading brain by the dozen or so trading rooms I spent time in early on.....I can honestly say those days, weeks and months were quite possibly the worst possible thing I could have done and a colossal waste of time and brain cells. I occasionally hear various bits of the crap I've heard in those rooms playing in my head during a trade. Invariably those soundtracks are complete and utter nonsense. I had this thought last week and thought I'd toss it in today's post....it seems fitting for some reason.







Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #166 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Top step hasn't posted their trade report yet and I'm out of time for the evening. I'll edit this post tomorrow or whenever they put up the report....so for now, here's day one of the combine.....

It was BTL day. I took the correct BTL trade, held it while it did the slow motion crude creep until it closed OTL, I trailed it out and took the OTL long and was promptly stopped out and the original BTL short trade finished nicely without me. MFE was +30. A good case to simply let it play out but the premise of the trade was no longer valid. No regrets about this trade sequence. I would do it again tomorrow...hopefully with different results! I did have long targets in the 80.00 area to look for.

Forced to let the move play out at this point....to much risk chasing it although in this case it would have been fine. You never know and you only look foolish in hindsight!

After a bit, a chance to recoup my losses presented, I took the trade and exited at a point where my combine day went green. In this case, I am justifying this early exit for a couple of reasons....1. I am trading a short combine, and while I feel this rule is completely arbitrary and in no way reflects real trading, you MUST be green 55% of the trading days. So in one respect, being green today is part of the overall winning strategy. 2. Price had gone quite a ways and in general, I was not expecting it to continue without a major pullback, which did not actually happen. In fact, I was expecting the location where I exited to be more or less the support for a major pull back leg. Again, this did not happen. And 3, I was nearly out of time this morning.

So while the PnL looks weak and my exits look weak, in fact, I traded this day nearly perfectly according to plan. To have traded otherwise would have resulted in perhaps a nice winner but process would have been severely violated and in this game, process must come before profit. And in this case, process did not win.

I would have liked to present a massively profitable day today as it appears obviously easy to make some nice coin today, but these kinds of days happen....and so must be presented along with the days that do go as hoped.

On a side note, I wish to god I could undo the damage done inside my trading brain by the dozen or so trading rooms I spent time in early on.....I can honestly say those days, weeks and months were quite possibly the worst possible thing I could have done and a colossal waste of time and brain cells. I occasionally hear various bits of the crap I've heard in those rooms playing in my head during a trade. Invariably those soundtracks are complete and utter nonsense. I had this thought last week and thought I'd toss it in today's post....it seems fitting for some reason.







They seem to post around 8 PM CST. Also to the right of your login info on the summary is a hide button. That way you don't have to draw a box.

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  #167 (permalink)
 matevisky 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Top step hasn't posted their trade report yet and I'm out of time for the evening. I'll edit this post tomorrow or whenever they put up the report....so for now, here's day one of the combine.....

About the trade report: Time to time there are some issues with the reports. You don't have to being scared about it, just drop them an email (support@topsteptrader.com) you do not even have to screenshotot, just simply. Hey guys, the reports is not correct, it has been not shown, or the report doesnt contain any winning trade... Most of the cases in 1-2 hours they will answer, and they will fix the issue.
The master report is always your account performance, what you are seeing the report on the website, is just a scipt, which collecting the data from that account report, and sometimes not perfect... So:
- Never wait the TST report to be ready to do your journal. That's why I have been started to posted weekly. Does not make sense
- If there is error, just send them a email, they will do the correction

And thank you for your posting over and over again, and good luck with your combine! Based on your strategy, you can make the combine in 2-3 winning day, all the other can be scretch like this one!

Máté
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  #168 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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you've inspired me to do a combine too. i tried the free trial and sucked it up. so we'll see how this one goes.
good luck with yours! i have no doubt you will pass it.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I don't always agree with the "why" we go to war and I don't always agree with the "how" the political leaders want to fight that war, BUT I always respect the men and women that volunteer to serve.

A huge thanks to all those past, present and future that put themselves in harms way so that I may live in peace!

A quick pic from our Veterans Day Parade...


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  #170 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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jackbravo View Post
you've inspired me to do a combine too. i tried the free trial and sucked it up. so we'll see how this one goes.
good luck with yours! i have no doubt you will pass it.

Thank you....we will see....

Why would you consider spending the money for a combine if you have any doubts in your mind you can pass a it? I can see if you have an edge and are ready to exploit that edge....I can see if you want to test your skills against a rigid system like TST but to say you sucked and then are going to give it a try makes no sense to me at all. I'm sorry if I inspired you to do something prematurely. Please rethink your decision.

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  #171 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Thank you....we will see....

Why would you consider spending the money for a combine if you have any doubts in your mind you can pass a it? I can see if you have an edge and are ready to exploit that edge....I can see if you want to test your skills against a rigid system like TST but to say you sucked and then are going to give it a try makes no sense to me at all. I'm sorry if I inspired you to do something prematurely. Please rethink your decision.

you're right, probably a bad decision!
i had 4 perfect days on the trial, blown out in two. i'm hoping paying for the 50k combine with the incentive of getting my money back might help me learn to really watch my draw downs. if not, well, i've lost (much!) more in a day.

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  #172 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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jackbravo View Post
you're right, probably a bad decision!
i had 4 perfect days on the trial, blown out in two. i'm hoping paying for the 50k combine with the incentive of getting my money back might help me learn to really watch my draw downs. if not, well, i've lost (much!) more in a day.


Of course I'm right....

learn how to trade then take a combine.....you blow out a sim account in two days, you think you're gonna not blow out a combine in one day? Please.....

If inspiration counts for anything, then humor me and learn to trade first and then do a combine.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 jackbravo 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Of course I'm right....

learn how to trade then take a combine.....you blow out a sim account in two days, you think you're gonna not blow out a combine in one day? Please.....

If inspiration counts for anything, then humor me and learn to trade first and then do a combine.

i have made wiser decisions, but there are no takebacks.
i do appreciate your sage wisdom.

 
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  #174 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I wrote this while the trading day was in process....

Then TST doesn't post the trade report until much later on so I simply didn't feel like posting last night....so here is yesterdays...

Price is trading in a 50 tick range all night. Its short but coiled up pretty tight and a long could materialize.

Tried three times to be short, on the second attempt, I shorted a single lot, then added to it on each subsequent bar. It went +40 on the original short and and when I added on the pull back, the entire thing stopped out. I then tried to be short at the double top area, shorted the inside bar and was stopped out. Three shots, all failures.
One last shot at the shorts as it breaks the trend line.....two lots....looking for around 90 ticks to the lower short target area.

It's been a range day for the most part, no trending follow through to speak of.



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 PandaWarrior 
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Another crap day...

I sold near the top of the move down, held it for a while and it stalled at the previous low on the daily and so I closed the trade out.....

Turns out, much of what I hold to be the gospel truth in terms of what price SHOULD do is simply rubbish. Price doesn't have to do anything I think it should.

At that point, I was up pretty nicely and could have walked away but I waited for inventory and there was no low risk area to get in....I considered the higher risk entry but did the right thing and ignored it. Then tried to get short a couple of time and got stopped out....Stop to close but still I thought out of the noise.....

Then finally some support and so I got long with smallest size.....that also was stopped out and I called it a day.....

BUT here's the kicker, in between inventory and the few trades that stopped out, I found out my dad has colon cancer....and while as I write this, I know the prognosis is very good, they think they will be able to get it all with surgery, at the time I felt sucker punched. A lot has happened to my family the last couple of years on the health front and this was the final straw.....what possessed me to keep trading after that news is beyond me. Maybe I felt out of control of the health events and so tried to take control of something through trading....or who knows, but I made a grave mistake trying to trade in that frame of mind.

Finally I just closed the laptop and got out of the house.....went and saw my pastor for a bit, then talked to my brother for a long time.....and those conversations helped get me back on stable ground emotionally.

I ended the day giving everything back....its a green day but just barely.

Since this is a ten day combine, I'm not sure of the consequences of not trading for a few days but I think I am done at least until Monday. Time to take a break and make sure I'm really stable emotionally before getting back to it.

I'll post the TST trade report later tonight or tomorrow......

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  #176 (permalink)
 TheShrike 
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Sorry to hear about your dad, Panda. Even though the prognosis sounds good, it's always a blow. I've been through the same thing with my father so I'm pulling for you and your dad. Take a break and get your head together. This will all be here when you're ready.

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  #177 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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I hope it goes well with your dad.

Keep your chin up. If you can stay on an even keel, it will help the rest of your family as well as yourself.

Best wishes for a good outcome.

Bob.

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  #178 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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best to your dad Panda.

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  #179 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Doing better today....dad is doing better mentally now that he knows what the issue is and that the prognosis is pretty good. Biopsy results back on Monday or Tuesday which will determine if radiation is needed or not prior to surgery.

He showed me a picture the doc took of the cancer. I'm not sure what I was expecting but it didn't look quite like what I was expecting.

The pic showed a white mass growing on the inside of the colon and to my untrained eye, it didn't look any different than the surrounding tissue. But it was cancer and represented the source of the issues my dad has been having. The doc has the training to recognize it, how to remove it and when to stop cutting.

Which made me think about trading....how oftentimes a good opportunity is unrecognizable from any other set up....and yet to the trained eye, an asymmetrical trading moment has presented itself.

Which leads me to the next idea which is that as traders one of our primary jobs is to train our eye to recognize these opportunities for what they are.....and as I have written in my private journal a few times, trends have humble beginnings.

Therefore, we must know what an opportunity looks like, plan for it, prepare mentally, emotionally and financially to execute a trade when its presented and know when to stop.

No trading today although from the charts it was a good day for my method. I feel good about it though. I needed a day to do nothing trading related. Unless something changes between now and then, I'll be back on Monday.

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  #180 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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During difficult times, people (including me) often turn to spiritual things to help them deal with pain, sorrow, grief, uncertainty, etc....and in my particular belief system, trust in the Higher Power is considered an essential component of that system. Trust being defined as relying on the Higher Power to provide that which is needed in the current situation and how that trust requires relinquishing control of the situation and having an understanding that things will work out. Instead, in our (my) frustration, impatience, anger, lack of trust, etc, we (I) often times spend unnecessary hours, days, weeks and months worrying about something or trying to force the situation to conform to our (my) pre-determined idea of what the ideal should look like.

Essentially this requires us to do what we know to do, and nothing more. Leave the rest up to the Universe, Higher Power or God, whatever your label is.

And again, this reminded me of how as traders, we do what we know to do, find an entry that conforms with what we know to represent an opportunity and then leave the rest up to the market. But instead we (I mean me!!) spend an inordinate amount of unnecessary worry, stress, thoughts and efforts to make our trade conform to how we (I) want it to look.

For instance, I like instant gratification.....this applies to all areas of life and not just trading although I am learning to have patience!!!....but in trading, instant gratification is rarely available if at all. There are those rare instances that produce 100 ticks in a few minutes but most of the time, you (I) must wait for the payoff.

Instead, I try to force the trade to be profitable by moving stops to soon.....I want the trade to run right to my target and give me my profit without waiting to long....and I get impatient. And it starts to come back and I start thinking about how it might move against me 100 ticks just like that.....(this never happens of course, I'm usually on the right side of things) and so I "manage" the trade thereby cutting off a very profitable opportunity. What's going on here? I submit its a lack of trust the market is going to give me what my otherwise rational system tells me that on average, it will give me.

So to use a loose analogy, the market is the "Higher Power" and once we do our (my) part, then the only thing left to do is trust. Which is a bit harder to do than to say. Both in life and in trading.

Perhaps I'm waxing philosophical because of the situation with my dad, but its during these times that a person gets the free time to think.....and often times my mind drifts toward the spiritual and the philosophical. And of course to trading. Hard to separate "real life" from trading as trading seems to have implications in nearly every area of life.

And now I'm done for the day....hopefully this will sound as profound tomorrow as it does today....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #181 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
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PandaWarrior View Post
During difficult times, people (including me) often turn to spiritual things to help them deal with pain, sorrow, grief, uncertainty, etc....and in my particular belief system, trust in the Higher Power is considered an essential component of that system. Trust being defined as relying on the Higher Power to provide that which is needed in the current situation and how that trust requires relinquishing control of the situation and having an understanding that things will work out. Instead, in our (my) frustration, impatience, anger, lack of trust, etc, we (I) often times spend unnecessary hours, days, weeks and months worrying about something or trying to force the situation to conform to our (my) pre-determined idea of what the ideal should look like.

Essentially this requires us to do what we know to do, and nothing more. Leave the rest up to the Universe, Higher Power or God, whatever your label is.

And again, this reminded me of how as traders, we do what we know to do, find an entry that conforms with what we know to represent an opportunity and then leave the rest up to the market. But instead we (I mean me!!) spend an inordinate amount of unnecessary worry, stress, thoughts and efforts to make our trade conform to how we (I) want it to look.

For instance, I like instant gratification.....this applies to all areas of life and not just trading although I am learning to have patience!!!....but in trading, instant gratification is rarely available if at all. There are those rare instances that produce 100 ticks in a few minutes but most of the time, you (I) must wait for the payoff.

Instead, I try to force the trade to be profitable by moving stops to soon.....I want the trade to run right to my target and give me my profit without waiting to long....and I get impatient. And it starts to come back and I start thinking about how it might move against me 100 ticks just like that.....(this never happens of course, I'm usually on the right side of things) and so I "manage" the trade thereby cutting off a very profitable opportunity. What's going on here? I submit its a lack of trust the market is going to give me what my otherwise rational system tells me that on average, it will give me.

So to use a loose analogy, the market is the "Higher Power" and once we do our (my) part, then the only thing left to do is trust. Which is a bit harder to do than to say. Both in life and in trading.

Perhaps I'm waxing philosophical because of the situation with my dad, but its during these times that a person gets the free time to think.....and often times my mind drifts toward the spiritual and the philosophical. And of course to trading. Hard to separate "real life" from trading as trading seems to have implications in nearly every area of life.

And now I'm done for the day....hopefully this will sound as profound tomorrow as it does today....

Thanks for writing that. That really resonated with me today.

Failure is not an option
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  #182 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Sorry to hear about your dad, Brian

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  #183 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I'm posting a video today and I'll follow it up with the TST trade report later this evening.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #184 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I must be losing my mind, two videos in a row.....I RARELY watch other people's videos.....they are way to slow for me. I read way faster than most people talk....so sitting and listening to other people talk is often an exercise in boredom for me....which is why I rarely make videos...I figure if I'm bored watching them, so is everyone else...but apparently not so much.....

On the other hand, narrating the day even if its in hindsight and done fairly quickly, does tend to help me learn something as well....so perhaps I'll do them more often.




Volunteer work mentioned in the video.

Operation Christmas Child


Here is the trade report from yesterday as promised. I've been rather distracted during this combine which I would very much like you to believe is the reason for the poor performance and while there is a fair amount of truth to this, its not the 100% truth. In reality, knowing I was going to publish the trade reports here freaked me out a bit and then layering my dad's cancer diagnosis on top kinda threw me for a loop. Regardless, I think I'll roll this combine over as a worse case scenario and perhaps take it up again at a later date.



And today's report:


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 PandaWarrior 
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Big Mike View Post
Sorry to hear about your dad, Brian

Sent from my phone

Biopsy results today....malignant cancer....very early stages though....doc says he can get all of it.......very good long term prognosis....we are grateful.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #186 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Biopsy results today....malignant cancer....very early stages though....doc says he can get all of it.......very good long term prognosis....we are grateful.

Amen.

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  #187 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Biopsy results today....malignant cancer....very early stages though....doc says he can get all of it.......very good long term prognosis....we are grateful.

Another reminder that we should all evaluate our life and the priorities we've created for ourselves, and see if those really make sense in the grand scheme of what is truly important.

I am glad your dad received good news. But I bet he still would offer advice similar to this (like most wise men would): live your life in the pursuit of happiness, take risks, don't settle for things that get in your way - find a way to make positive change with the goal being happy.

Find what you enjoy in life and then embrace it.

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PandaWarrior View Post
Biopsy results today....malignant cancer....very early stages though....doc says he can get all of it.......very good long term prognosis....we are grateful.

My prayers for his full recovery.

Matt

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  #189 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Biopsy results today....malignant cancer....very early stages though....doc says he can get all of it.......very good long term prognosis....we are grateful.

I second all the good wishes others have sent. I hope it works out well.

Gratitude is the best emotion now.

Bob.

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  #190 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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For all those with an interest in Russia:

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #191 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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I feel like shit today.

My Achilles heel is this....moving those damn stops to soon.....stupid thing is I know I do it but can't stop myself. At the end of the day, I see what could have been had I just done NOTHING.....I even put my targets in good places....it seems I know HOW to find ENTRIES and EXITS, but dealing with the emotion in between is becoming a serious issue. Each time it happens, I tell myself like a good repentant alcoholic that tomorrow will be DIFFERENT. That tomorrow I won't move the damn stops....that tomorrow I will walk away. That tomorrow I will be the trader I know I can be......

And tomorrow comes and I don't move the stops and I get taken out for a loss....then the next day I move the stops and once again, I find myself on the sidelines watching while price moves toward my targets....and remain the trader I AM.

Today for instance, I sold in a near perfect location....after around 28-30 MFE, I moved to BE, thinking, CL will do its famous 20 tick pull back and I'll have 8-10 ticks of room between me and price.....but today it did a 29 tick pull back and took my stop to the TICK and then sold off for more than 100 ticks.....

After a long time, I found another place to get in, and EXACTLY the same thing happened. This time by a few ticks but still, the EXACT same thing.

Its time to admit I have a serious problem. Hi, my name is Brian and I am a stop moving aholic. I've been a stop mover since the beginning of my trading career. It has ruined me and I am ready to recover from my addiction.

I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago. How my method produced nice winners if I would just leave them alone. It felt good to write this. I even meant it. But honestly I'm not sure I even followed that plan even once. Well Wednesday I did but what really happened there is I took my kiddo to school and left the trade open....and my targets got hit while I was out....otherwise, who knows what stupidity I might have committed.

Today was one of the easiest days to make money in recent memory on CL and I have two trades for BE+1 to show for it. I've simplified my entry decisions as much as I think I'm gonna get them for now. They are clear and easy to see. I use confirmation, so sue me....its not the confirmation that hurts, its the stop.....yes if I didn't use confirmation, I might be able to go to BE and not get hit, but I KNOW this is gonna happen, its part of the system, that break out pull back that seems to happens 95% of the time. And yet, I cannot seem to stop violating the most basic thing....don't move the stop.

I stopped losing by going BE aggressively....but I was also searching around for the holy grail, so going BE often times saved me from my own ignorance.....and I grew to love the BE.....knowing it was protecting me while I learned and solidified my ideas.....but now that I have, its a noose around my neck. Its literally killing me. Its cost me tens of thousands of dollars this year alone in missed winners.....dare I say it, maybe even 100K in profit has been missed because of this issue.

I used to say things like "no one changes until the pain of staying the same exceeds the pain of change." Now I'm not so sure. The pain of staying the same is extreme and yet I don't change. Now the question is WHY?

Another issue is this, once price has moved away from the entry zones, I HATE chasing but often times, a chase can work, the profits are reduced of course but the premise of the trade remains valid.....risk can increase but if you wait for a pull back, that to can be reduced....but for some reason, I feel like once the initial entry is gone, just sit it out. Who knows when and where it will reverse.....maybe the move is over.

I'm at McDonalds writing this and CNBC is on the TV, they are talking about "Easy Money Trades". If only they knew!. Today was easy money all over the place and I have none.....

Something MUST change and it MUST change soon. I'm growing to hate this in a way I didn't think possible. I told my wife today, days like this make me wonder if I can be a great trader. I know I can be a good trader but being a great trader requires that I change this behavior and change it permanently. I could be a good trader just scalping 10-20 ticks a day. Add size as the account grows....I have the patience and the discipline to do that. I'd be up around 30 ticks today......But I want to be a great trader.....and that requires behavior modification.

Honestly, I'm at a loss. I have the weekend to think about it....and maybe the rest of the year....I don't know if I should trade any longer until I figure out what's causing this. Actually I will finish the combine, I have two more days left. Hopefully I will roll it over. All I need to do is have one tick winners with a single lot both days and I'm good....then maybe I sit out the rest of the year.....who knows.

@tigertrader says everyone gets what they want from the markets. That sounds like bullshit to me on the surface and yet I wonder if I'm not wrong about that. And if I'm wrong, what does that say about me as a person both emotionally and mentally? Do I subconsciously WANT to not be a winner? That sounds irrational at best and laughably stupid at worst....and yet????? If so, my family is in serious trouble.....

Ok, I accept I am the problem. I accept there is something I am not aware of limiting my prospects of being a great trader. Worse, while I'm aware that I'm not aware of what's missing, I've no real idea of what that variable is....and I don't know how to find it and fix it. At the same time, I have a certain feeling hovering around the periphery of my consciousnesses that purports to be the answer...something that sounds vaguely like the word surrender. Something I've not been willing to do.....is it possible to win the war by not fighting at all? Maybe, fighting has not produced desirable results.

And in case anyone is wondering, I made $80 today in the combine. Don't laugh and don't judge. I've done enough of that for all of us.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #192 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Brian, there are many axioms in the market, but like most things they work or are true only about half the time.

We all struggle with similar things, the difference is the longer you are in the business the quicker you catch yourself making a mistake and then correct it.

You are looking for absolutes but won't find them. Stops are like everything else in trading. They can work, they can hurt, they are not black/white good or bad.

Bottom line is you need a direction for the market you believe in, preferably macro, then be as fluid as possible and allow your trades to pay you.

I wonder how you would do if you traded USO as the ETF and you traded it with the rule of no more than one execution a day, either a buy or sell but not both. Forcing a more macro view and more time to get paid.

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  #193 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Big Mike View Post
Brian, there are many axioms in the market, but like most things they work or are true only about half the time.

We all struggle with similar things, the difference is the longer you are in the business the quicker you catch yourself making a mistake and then correct it.

You are looking for absolutes but won't find them. Stops are like everything else in trading. They can work, they can hurt, they are not black/white good or bad.

Bottom line is you need a direction for the market you believe in, preferably macro, then be as fluid as possible and allow your trades to pay you.

I wonder how you would do if you traded USO as the ETF and you traded it with the rule of no more than one execution a day, either a buy or sell but not both. Forcing a more macro view and more time to get paid.

Sent from my phone

Time seems to be the issue.....

I've been doing this for about 4 years. First year more or less part time, second and third year were holy grail hunting and the last 18 months more or less profitable but using harsh loss controls and having some decent winners......

BUT what is hurting is now that the holy grail hunt is basically over, I'm comfortable with my trading style and have confidence in it and I'm ok with taking a loss even, it seems I'm afraid of giving open profits back......

And I understand things are fluid....and that stops are good and bad.....and there are 120 exceptions to every "rule". All that I'm ok with.....I even get the market direction right most days.....BUT I hate to give back open profits.....on any level it seems......and this seems to be the issue.....allowing trades to pay me....if I was doing that, I wouldn't be writing this.....thats the main issue here...not allowing the market to pay me.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #194 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
virginia
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Time seems to be the issue.....

...

BUT what is hurting is now that the holy grail hunt is basically over, I'm comfortable with my trading style and have confidence in it and I'm ok with taking a loss even, it seems I'm afraid of giving open profits back......

And I understand things are fluid....and that stops are good and bad.....and there are 120 exceptions to every "rule". All that I'm ok with.....I even get the market direction right most days.....BUT I hate to give back open profits.....on any level it seems......and this seems to be the issue.....

have you explore putting on an opposite trade then take it off once the original trade goes your way again.

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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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cory View Post
have you explore putting on an opposite trade then take it off once the original trade goes your way again.

That seems even more irrational than the problem I have.....an unnecessary complication. What we have here is a failure to allow the market to do what its gonna do....not a direction issue nor an entry issue.....Adding anything to this will only make it worse....not better. I agree with @Big Mike that having limited executions per day is a good start...I only needed one today.....just like yesterday, only one was needed.....so its not tactical, its emotional which means a tactical solution is at best flawed and at worst, contributing to the issue.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #196 (permalink)
 Thegunshow 
Portland, OR USA
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I feel like shit today.

My Achilles heel is this....moving those damn stops to soon.....stupid thing is I know I do it but can't stop myself. At the end of the day, I see what could have been had I just done NOTHING.....I even put my targets in good places....it seems I know HOW to find ENTRIES and EXITS, but dealing with the emotion in between is becoming a serious issue. Each time it happens, I tell myself like a good repentant alcoholic that tomorrow will be DIFFERENT. That tomorrow I won't move the damn stops....that tomorrow I will walk away. That tomorrow I will be the trader I know I can be......

And tomorrow comes and I don't move the stops and I get taken out for a loss....then the next day I move the stops and once again, I find myself on the sidelines watching while price moves toward my targets....and remain the trader I AM.

Today for instance, I sold in a near perfect location....after around 28-30 MFE, I moved to BE, thinking, CL will do its famous 20 tick pull back and I'll have 8-10 ticks of room between me and price.....but today it did a 29 tick pull back and took my stop to the TICK and then sold off for more than 100 ticks.....

After a long time, I found another place to get in, and EXACTLY the same thing happened. This time by a few ticks but still, the EXACT same thing.

Its time to admit I have a serious problem. Hi, my name is Brian and I am a stop moving aholic. I've been a stop mover since the beginning of my trading career. It has ruined me and I am ready to recover from my addiction.

I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago. How my method produced nice winners if I would just leave them alone. It felt good to write this. I even meant it. But honestly I'm not sure I even followed that plan even once. Well Wednesday I did but what really happened there is I took my kiddo to school and left the trade open....and my targets got hit while I was out....otherwise, who knows what stupidity I might have committed.

Today was one of the easiest days to make money in recent memory on CL and I have two trades for BE+1 to show for it. I've simplified my entry decisions as much as I think I'm gonna get them for now. They are clear and easy to see. I use confirmation, so sue me....its not the confirmation that hurts, its the stop.....yes if I didn't use confirmation, I might be able to go to BE and not get hit, but I KNOW this is gonna happen, its part of the system, that break out pull back that seems to happens 95% of the time. And yet, I cannot seem to stop violating the most basic thing....don't move the stop.

I stopped losing by going BE aggressively....but I was also searching around for the holy grail, so going BE often times saved me from my own ignorance.....and I grew to love the BE.....knowing it was protecting me while I learned and solidified my ideas.....but now that I have, its a noose around my neck. Its literally killing me. Its cost me tens of thousands of dollars this year alone in missed winners.....dare I say it, maybe even 100K in profit has been missed because of this issue.

I used to say things like "no one changes until the pain of staying the same exceeds the pain of change." Now I'm not so sure. The pain of staying the same is extreme and yet I don't change. Now the question is WHY?

Another issue is this, once price has moved away from the entry zones, I HATE chasing but often times, a chase can work, the profits are reduced of course but the premise of the trade remains valid.....risk can increase but if you wait for a pull back, that to can be reduced....but for some reason, I feel like once the initial entry is gone, just sit it out. Who knows when and where it will reverse.....maybe the move is over.

I'm at McDonalds writing this and CNBC is on the TV, they are talking about "Easy Money Trades". If only they knew!. Today was easy money all over the place and I have none.....

Something MUST change and it MUST change soon. I'm growing to hate this in a way I didn't think possible. I told my wife today, days like this make me wonder if I can be a great trader. I know I can be a good trader but being a great trader requires that I change this behavior and change it permanently. I could be a good trader just scalping 10-20 ticks a day. Add size as the account grows....I have the patience and the discipline to do that. I'd be up around 30 ticks today......But I want to be a great trader.....and that requires behavior modification.

Honestly, I'm at a loss. I have the weekend to think about it....and maybe the rest of the year....I don't know if I should trade any longer until I figure out what's causing this. Actually I will finish the combine, I have two more days left. Hopefully I will roll it over. All I need to do is have one tick winners with a single lot both days and I'm good....then maybe I sit out the rest of the year.....who knows.

@tigertrader says everyone gets what they want from the markets. That sounds like bullshit to me on the surface and yet I wonder if I'm not wrong about that. And if I'm wrong, what does that say about me as a person both emotionally and mentally? Do I subconsciously WANT to not be a winner? That sounds irrational at best and laughably stupid at worst....and yet????? If so, my family is in serious trouble.....

Ok, I accept I am the problem. I accept there is something I am not aware of limiting my prospects of being a great trader. Worse, while I'm aware that I'm not aware of what's missing, I've no real idea of what that variable is....and I don't know how to find it and fix it. At the same time, I have a certain feeling hovering around the periphery of my consciousnesses that purports to be the answer...something that sounds vaguely like the word surrender. Something I've not been willing to do.....is it possible to win the war by not fighting at all? Maybe, fighting has not produced desirable results.

And in case anyone is wondering, I made $80 today in the combine. Don't laugh and don't judge. I've done enough of that for all of us.

Any chance of helping yourself with scaling? Take enough contracts off at a closer target to make the overall trade breakeven while leaving the original stops on the remaining cars?

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  #197 (permalink)
 lancelottrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
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