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The Pandawarrior Chronicles II


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The Pandawarrior Chronicles II

  #161 (permalink)
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Platform: Tradeovate
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cejstrup View Post
Really looking forward to this. In all my trading, testing and analysis I've never been able to make either scale in/out work better that to just take it all off at once.

But my main problem is my win pct is below 50% ,so I can't roll over a combine without custom parameters. And this is costing me extra pr combine.

Can't wait to see how it goes. I know it can be done,I'm just not at a point where I can do it..Yet

The lower win rate is fine as long as you win more than you lose in terms of dollars....so if you are risking 1:1, then you are screwed. But if you are at 1.5:1 or better, you should be fine....BUT to win within the combine parameters, I would recommend at least 2:1 or better.

The other consideration is this: Is your win rate a function of the system being followed with discipline and that is the actual win rate or are you taking trades outside the system? If its the latter, you can make improvements over time about how you trade within the system guidelines....and this will require some work on your emotional makeup....something thats difficult at best.....

If its the former, then perhaps the combine isn't the best place for your system to function.....in that case, you may consider spending some time working on a system that will work within the combine rules....and leave the other system to trade your own money.

And for the record, my personal win rate is around 47% on a per trade basis....this includes those trades you might classify as impulse, revenge, impatient, fear based, etc....of which there is more than I care to admit. But my personal daily win rate is around 70% most of the time. So for me, improving my intra day win rate really comes down to limiting the number of trades as I generally make worse and worse decisions as the day wears on.....if I can get it above 50-60%, I'd be thrilled.

Cheers..

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #162 (permalink)
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Platform: Tradeovate
Trading: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,162 since Mar 2010
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bobwest View Post
Really good job of setting out your parameters.

As you said, a good entry is the thing. Then, with small risk (contract size) and clear rules of what to do in the trade, you should be quite successful.

I'm looking forward to following along.

Good luck with it.

Bob.

Another big thing is trade management. As I have noted many times before, trade management has cost me more money than a good entry has ever made me.....I seem to have a decent knack of picking good exit points....but holding to that point has always been the issue....so this 5M experiment is based almost exclusively on NO trade management......so hopefully I'll be able to report good results by doing less of everything!

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #163 (permalink)
Denmark
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: CL
 
cejstrup's Avatar
 
Posts: 91 since Jan 2014
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PandaWarrior View Post
The lower win rate is fine as long as you win more than you lose in terms of dollars....so if you are risking 1:1, then you are screwed. But if you are at 1.5:1 or better, you should be fine....BUT to win within the combine parameters, I would recommend at least 2:1 or better.

The other consideration is this: Is your win rate a function of the system being followed with discipline and that is the actual win rate or are you taking trades outside the system? If its the latter, you can make improvements over time about how you trade within the system guidelines....and this will require some work on your emotional makeup....something thats difficult at best.....

If its the former, then perhaps the combine isn't the best place for your system to function.....in that case, you may consider spending some time working on a system that will work within the combine rules....and leave the other system to trade your own money.

And for the record, my personal win rate is around 47% on a per trade basis....this includes those trades you might classify as impulse, revenge, impatient, fear based, etc....of which there is more than I care to admit. But my personal daily win rate is around 70% most of the time. So for me, improving my intra day win rate really comes down to limiting the number of trades as I generally make worse and worse decisions as the day wears on.....if I can get it above 50-60%, I'd be thrilled.

Cheers..

It's the actual win rate. It's around 45-47% in that range. I didn't take any trade outside the system. I managed to get a rollover and was actually up a lot at one point. But then I hit a losing streak.

My plan is to try and wrap the system into some other signals and only take trades when there's confluence of 2 or more. In the combine I only took 1 max 2 trades per day. Going forward 2 will still be the max,but I will have less signals go from so I need to be extra careful to only pick the best entries.

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  #164 (permalink)
Market Wizard
west palm beach florida usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ninja trader
Broker: Optimus Futures/ Rithmic
Trading: Cl, TF
 
Posts: 945 since Oct 2011
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PandaWarrior View Post
So for me, improving my intra day win rate really comes down to limiting the number of trades as I generally make worse and worse decisions as the day wears on.....if I can get it above 50-60%, I'd be thrilled.

Cheers..

I have found, when I review my performance, is that most of my wins occur during the opening hour of an instrument. But as I continue to trade, I have often given it all back. I do like, in CL, around 11 am est, since there is often some big move around that time as well. I probably should limit my trades to a few in the opening hour and then possibly if I get a good setup at that 11 am time .

Anyhow, I wish you all the best in your combine and I'm sure you will do well.

Failure is not an option
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  #165 (permalink)
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Platform: Tradeovate
Trading: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,162 since Mar 2010
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Top step hasn't posted their trade report yet and I'm out of time for the evening. I'll edit this post tomorrow or whenever they put up the report....so for now, here's day one of the combine.....

It was BTL day. I took the correct BTL trade, held it while it did the slow motion crude creep until it closed OTL, I trailed it out and took the OTL long and was promptly stopped out and the original BTL short trade finished nicely without me. MFE was +30. A good case to simply let it play out but the premise of the trade was no longer valid. No regrets about this trade sequence. I would do it again tomorrow...hopefully with different results! I did have long targets in the 80.00 area to look for.

Forced to let the move play out at this point....to much risk chasing it although in this case it would have been fine. You never know and you only look foolish in hindsight!

After a bit, a chance to recoup my losses presented, I took the trade and exited at a point where my combine day went green. In this case, I am justifying this early exit for a couple of reasons....1. I am trading a short combine, and while I feel this rule is completely arbitrary and in no way reflects real trading, you MUST be green 55% of the trading days. So in one respect, being green today is part of the overall winning strategy. 2. Price had gone quite a ways and in general, I was not expecting it to continue without a major pullback, which did not actually happen. In fact, I was expecting the location where I exited to be more or less the support for a major pull back leg. Again, this did not happen. And 3, I was nearly out of time this morning.

So while the PnL looks weak and my exits look weak, in fact, I traded this day nearly perfectly according to plan. To have traded otherwise would have resulted in perhaps a nice winner but process would have been severely violated and in this game, process must come before profit. And in this case, process did not win.

I would have liked to present a massively profitable day today as it appears obviously easy to make some nice coin today, but these kinds of days happen....and so must be presented along with the days that do go as hoped.

On a side note, I wish to god I could undo the damage done inside my trading brain by the dozen or so trading rooms I spent time in early on.....I can honestly say those days, weeks and months were quite possibly the worst possible thing I could have done and a colossal waste of time and brain cells. I occasionally hear various bits of the crap I've heard in those rooms playing in my head during a trade. Invariably those soundtracks are complete and utter nonsense. I had this thought last week and thought I'd toss it in today's post....it seems fitting for some reason.







Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #166 (permalink)
Super Moderator
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Trading: GBU-39
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Top step hasn't posted their trade report yet and I'm out of time for the evening. I'll edit this post tomorrow or whenever they put up the report....so for now, here's day one of the combine.....

It was BTL day. I took the correct BTL trade, held it while it did the slow motion crude creep until it closed OTL, I trailed it out and took the OTL long and was promptly stopped out and the original BTL short trade finished nicely without me. MFE was +30. A good case to simply let it play out but the premise of the trade was no longer valid. No regrets about this trade sequence. I would do it again tomorrow...hopefully with different results! I did have long targets in the 80.00 area to look for.

Forced to let the move play out at this point....to much risk chasing it although in this case it would have been fine. You never know and you only look foolish in hindsight!

After a bit, a chance to recoup my losses presented, I took the trade and exited at a point where my combine day went green. In this case, I am justifying this early exit for a couple of reasons....1. I am trading a short combine, and while I feel this rule is completely arbitrary and in no way reflects real trading, you MUST be green 55% of the trading days. So in one respect, being green today is part of the overall winning strategy. 2. Price had gone quite a ways and in general, I was not expecting it to continue without a major pullback, which did not actually happen. In fact, I was expecting the location where I exited to be more or less the support for a major pull back leg. Again, this did not happen. And 3, I was nearly out of time this morning.

So while the PnL looks weak and my exits look weak, in fact, I traded this day nearly perfectly according to plan. To have traded otherwise would have resulted in perhaps a nice winner but process would have been severely violated and in this game, process must come before profit. And in this case, process did not win.

I would have liked to present a massively profitable day today as it appears obviously easy to make some nice coin today, but these kinds of days happen....and so must be presented along with the days that do go as hoped.

On a side note, I wish to god I could undo the damage done inside my trading brain by the dozen or so trading rooms I spent time in early on.....I can honestly say those days, weeks and months were quite possibly the worst possible thing I could have done and a colossal waste of time and brain cells. I occasionally hear various bits of the crap I've heard in those rooms playing in my head during a trade. Invariably those soundtracks are complete and utter nonsense. I had this thought last week and thought I'd toss it in today's post....it seems fitting for some reason.







They seem to post around 8 PM CST. Also to the right of your login info on the summary is a hide button. That way you don't have to draw a box.

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  #167 (permalink)
Budapest, Hungary
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: TopstepTrader
Trading: NQ, TF, YM
 
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Posts: 469 since May 2013
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PandaWarrior View Post
Top step hasn't posted their trade report yet and I'm out of time for the evening. I'll edit this post tomorrow or whenever they put up the report....so for now, here's day one of the combine.....

About the trade report: Time to time there are some issues with the reports. You don't have to being scared about it, just drop them an email (support@topsteptrader.com) you do not even have to screenshotot, just simply. Hey guys, the reports is not correct, it has been not shown, or the report doesnt contain any winning trade... Most of the cases in 1-2 hours they will answer, and they will fix the issue.
The master report is always your account performance, what you are seeing the report on the website, is just a scipt, which collecting the data from that account report, and sometimes not perfect... So:
- Never wait the TST report to be ready to do your journal. That's why I have been started to posted weekly. Does not make sense
- If there is error, just send them a email, they will do the correction

And thank you for your posting over and over again, and good luck with your combine! Based on your strategy, you can make the combine in 2-3 winning day, all the other can be scretch like this one!

Máté
Full time traderLive journal here
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  #168 (permalink)
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: ES, 6E, sometimes NQ, and occasionally CL
 
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you've inspired me to do a combine too. i tried the free trial and sucked it up. so we'll see how this one goes.
good luck with yours! i have no doubt you will pass it.

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  #169 (permalink)
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Platform: Tradeovate
Trading: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,162 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,324 given, 13,367 received



I don't always agree with the "why" we go to war and I don't always agree with the "how" the political leaders want to fight that war, BUT I always respect the men and women that volunteer to serve.

A huge thanks to all those past, present and future that put themselves in harms way so that I may live in peace!

A quick pic from our Veterans Day Parade...


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #170 (permalink)
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Platform: Tradeovate
Trading: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,162 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,324 given, 13,367 received



jackbravo View Post
you've inspired me to do a combine too. i tried the free trial and sucked it up. so we'll see how this one goes.
good luck with yours! i have no doubt you will pass it.

Thank you....we will see....

Why would you consider spending the money for a combine if you have any doubts in your mind you can pass a it? I can see if you have an edge and are ready to exploit that edge....I can see if you want to test your skills against a rigid system like TST but to say you sucked and then are going to give it a try makes no sense to me at all. I'm sorry if I inspired you to do something prematurely. Please rethink your decision.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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