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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile
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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile

  #1 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

daddy's CL trading w. volume profile

I start this thread to discipline myself
The problem is, I often skip to do my homework before the open, and nearly always miss to study my trades at the end of the day.
I studied stocks, ETFs, CFDs, options, and I finally fell in love with the oil futures, so I'm gonna post my thoughts around pit open (9.00) and I comment my trades at the end of the day.
I'm using market profile and volume profile for S/R zones, sometimes experiencing with some indicators, but until now, I couldn't find any, which works.
I try to keep trading and triggers as simple as I can.
Right now, I'm not profitable, but my goal is making 3.000/month with trading maximum 5 CL contracts.
I write the thread for myself, but if it's useful for somebody, the better. I do welcome advice and comments, thanks.

daddy

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  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
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Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bluffdale, UT
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 7 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 20 given, 4 received


I wish you the best of luck, Daddy.
I'll be interested in seeing your ideas for the day.

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  #4 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

Date: 2014.09.24.

Bias for the day: slightly bearish
Why: Crude is below a main support on the monthly chart. Overnight it stayed in a channel I set up yesterday, and before open it headed down, so it canít be that strong. Iíd like to see it approaches 90.41., weíll see.

Long term: Iím bearish for longer term, but I think it can bounce around for a while, before it heads lower. If the bulls come in, Iím gonna be bullish above 107.

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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20140924_open.jpg  
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  #5 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

The VolProf base is so narrow, I think it's gonna break somewhere: up (above 92) or down (91.24).


Last edited by daddy; September 24th, 2014 at 10:22 AM. Reason: mistype
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  #6 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

2014.09.24 trades

.. I had many trade ideas today, but as usual, I pulled the trigger on the wrong ones as well 
So the completed trades are:

Trade 1:
Time: 9:44
Sell 5 @ 91.36
Buy 5 @ 91.41
P&L w. commissions: -273.20
The trade idea was that itís gonna head down again, after it bounces back from the open (91.41). It did, but after I was stopped out.
Conclusion: trade idea was good, trade location wasnít.


Trade 2:
Time: 10:22
Sell 5 @ 91.41
Buy 2 @ 91.35
Buy 3 @ 91.42
P&L w. commissions: 56.8
Although it was profitable, it was a bad trade. I have a rule that I donít trade before the crude inventories report, but I couldnít resist the strech from the ONL to the pivot and VWAP. As soon I remembered my own rule, I closed the position
Conclusion: trade idea was good, but against my own rules.


Trade 3:
Time: 10:40
Sell 5 @ 91.98
Buy 2 @ 91.92
Buy 2 @ 91.86
Buy 1 @ 91.29
P&L w. commissions: 1026.8
It was very risky, after the report.
BUT: - it ran so much, it was so streched
- just pierced my resistance level
- there was a round number
- it came back to 92 with a double top-like formation on 333tk
Conclusion: counter momentum sometimes pays I expected 20-30 ticks, thatís why I scaled out 4 early. The 1 I left in, paid nicely. It was a traderís dream..

P&L for the day: 810.4
P&L from 09.24: 810.4

Attached Thumbnails
daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20140924_entry_1.jpg   daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20140924_entry_2.jpg   daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20140924_entry_3.jpg  
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  #7 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

2014.09.24 S/R zones rewiew

So yesterday I was slightly bearish, which paid off in the first half of the day.
After the report the 92.1-92.3 resistance nicely worked, it even went back to the ONL. In the second half, howewer, after moving in the 91.3-91.7 area, the bulls came in, and they remained in power till the end of the day.



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  #8 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones for 2014.09.25.

Bias for the day: neutral, but waiting for the bears
From yesterday afternoon the bulls came in. Overnight it went down to the 92.6-93.07 area, then bought again. If after the open it breaks through 93.55, it can rally to the 94 area. If it heads down below 92.52, the bears in charge, and the next support is in the 92.20-92.35 area.

The S/R zones:

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  #9 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

Trades for 2014.09.25.

Trade 0:
Khmm.. Well, a would-be trade, unfortunately. But I have to write down everything, so: the order was on my screen, and I was so satisfied when it broke down, but why couldnít I see the position size? Because I forgot to transmit the order, thatís why. I was unfocused. So lame.
Time: 9:07
Sell 5 @ 93.19
Why: I could see the bears came in, and it tried to break through 93.27-93.51 3 times without success.
Conclusion: trade idea was good, trade location was good, I was unfocused.


Trade 1:
Time: 11:27
Sell 5 @ 92.99
Buy 5 @ 93.04
P&L w. commissions: -273.2
It was a mediocre trade idea. It was after a 30 tick stretch, at a round number. Didnít work out.
Conclusion: I should pull a trigger only when the trade shouts in my face.


Trade 2:
Time: 12:00
Sell 5 @ 92.96
Buy 5 @ 93.01
P&L w. commissions: -273.2
Now this was a BAD idea. I fell in love with the idea of breaking down 93, well, it didnít.
Conclusion: I have to concentrate more, and shouldnít let the ĄIím gonna win back the losersĒ feeling rule on me.


Trade 3:
Time: 12:13
Sell 5 @ 93.18
Buy 2 @ 93.14
Buy 3 @ 93.17
P&L w. commissions: 86,8
The trade idea was good, based on 333tk chart and volume imbalance. I scaled out at the right time, after the scaling it turned back.


After all, I let my feelings rule the day. Started with a missed good trade, I lost, and became frustrated, so I entered a bad trade and lost again. After two losses, I failed to pull the trigger on really good trades, afraid of losing again. I have to grow some steel balls.


P&L for the day: -459.6
P&L from 09.24: 350.8

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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20140925_entries.jpg  
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Trading for Fun
Budapest+Hungary
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

20140925 review


I wrote:
"Bias for the day: neutral, but waiting for the bears
From yesterday afternoon the bulls came in. Overnight it went down to the 92.6-93.07 area, then bought again. If after the open it breaks through 93.55, it can rally to the 94 area. If it heads down below 92.52, the bears in charge, and the next support is in the 92.20-92.35 area."

The S/R zones worked pretty well: it headed down to the 92.20-92.35 area, but there the bulls came back, and pushed it back to the 93.27-93.51 resistance area, where it was turned back by the bears again.

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