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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile


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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile

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  #1 (permalink)
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Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
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I start this thread to discipline myself
The problem is, I often skip to do my homework before the open, and nearly always miss to study my trades at the end of the day.
I studied stocks, ETFs, CFDs, options, and I finally fell in love with the oil futures, so I'm gonna post my thoughts around pit open (9.00) and I comment my trades at the end of the day.
I'm using market profile and volume profile for S/R zones, sometimes experiencing with some indicators, but until now, I couldn't find any, which works.
I try to keep trading and triggers as simple as I can.
Right now, I'm not profitable, but my goal is making 3.000/month with trading maximum 5 CL contracts.
I write the thread for myself, but if it's useful for somebody, the better. I do welcome advice and comments, thanks.

daddy

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  #3 (permalink)
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I wish you the best of luck, Daddy.
I'll be interested in seeing your ideas for the day.

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  #4 (permalink)
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Date: 2014.09.24.

Bias for the day: slightly bearish
Why: Crude is below a main support on the monthly chart. Overnight it stayed in a channel I set up yesterday, and before open it headed down, so it can’t be that strong. I’d like to see it approaches 90.41., we’ll see.

Long term: I’m bearish for longer term, but I think it can bounce around for a while, before it heads lower. If the bulls come in, I’m gonna be bullish above 107.

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The VolProf base is so narrow, I think it's gonna break somewhere: up (above 92) or down (91.24).

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.. I had many trade ideas today, but as usual, I pulled the trigger on the wrong ones as well 
So the completed trades are:

Trade 1:
Time: 9:44
Sell 5 @ 91.36
Buy 5 @ 91.41
P&L w. commissions: -273.20
The trade idea was that it’s gonna head down again, after it bounces back from the open (91.41). It did, but after I was stopped out.
Conclusion: trade idea was good, trade location wasn’t.


Trade 2:
Time: 10:22
Sell 5 @ 91.41
Buy 2 @ 91.35
Buy 3 @ 91.42
P&L w. commissions: 56.8
Although it was profitable, it was a bad trade. I have a rule that I don’t trade before the crude inventories report, but I couldn’t resist the strech from the ONL to the pivot and VWAP. As soon I remembered my own rule, I closed the position
Conclusion: trade idea was good, but against my own rules.


Trade 3:
Time: 10:40
Sell 5 @ 91.98
Buy 2 @ 91.92
Buy 2 @ 91.86
Buy 1 @ 91.29
P&L w. commissions: 1026.8
It was very risky, after the report.
BUT: - it ran so much, it was so streched
- just pierced my resistance level
- there was a round number
- it came back to 92 with a double top-like formation on 333tk
Conclusion: counter momentum sometimes pays I expected 20-30 ticks, that’s why I scaled out 4 early. The 1 I left in, paid nicely. It was a trader’s dream..

P&L for the day: 810.4
P&L from 09.24: 810.4

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So yesterday I was slightly bearish, which paid off in the first half of the day.
After the report the 92.1-92.3 resistance nicely worked, it even went back to the ONL. In the second half, howewer, after moving in the 91.3-91.7 area, the bulls came in, and they remained in power till the end of the day.




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Bias for the day: neutral, but waiting for the bears
From yesterday afternoon the bulls came in. Overnight it went down to the 92.6-93.07 area, then bought again. If after the open it breaks through 93.55, it can rally to the 94 area. If it heads down below 92.52, the bears in charge, and the next support is in the 92.20-92.35 area.

The S/R zones:


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Trade 0:
Khmm.. Well, a would-be trade, unfortunately. But I have to write down everything, so: the order was on my screen, and I was so satisfied when it broke down, but why couldn’t I see the position size? Because I forgot to transmit the order, that’s why. I was unfocused. So lame.
Time: 9:07
Sell 5 @ 93.19
Why: I could see the bears came in, and it tried to break through 93.27-93.51 3 times without success.
Conclusion: trade idea was good, trade location was good, I was unfocused.


Trade 1:
Time: 11:27
Sell 5 @ 92.99
Buy 5 @ 93.04
P&L w. commissions: -273.2
It was a mediocre trade idea. It was after a 30 tick stretch, at a round number. Didn’t work out.
Conclusion: I should pull a trigger only when the trade shouts in my face.


Trade 2:
Time: 12:00
Sell 5 @ 92.96
Buy 5 @ 93.01
P&L w. commissions: -273.2
Now this was a BAD idea. I fell in love with the idea of breaking down 93, well, it didn’t.
Conclusion: I have to concentrate more, and shouldn’t let the „I’m gonna win back the losers” feeling rule on me.


Trade 3:
Time: 12:13
Sell 5 @ 93.18
Buy 2 @ 93.14
Buy 3 @ 93.17
P&L w. commissions: 86,8
The trade idea was good, based on 333tk chart and volume imbalance. I scaled out at the right time, after the scaling it turned back.


After all, I let my feelings rule the day. Started with a missed good trade, I lost, and became frustrated, so I entered a bad trade and lost again. After two losses, I failed to pull the trigger on really good trades, afraid of losing again. I have to grow some steel balls.


P&L for the day: -459.6
P&L from 09.24: 350.8

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I wrote:
"Bias for the day: neutral, but waiting for the bears
From yesterday afternoon the bulls came in. Overnight it went down to the 92.6-93.07 area, then bought again. If after the open it breaks through 93.55, it can rally to the 94 area. If it heads down below 92.52, the bears in charge, and the next support is in the 92.20-92.35 area."

The S/R zones worked pretty well: it headed down to the 92.20-92.35 area, but there the bulls came back, and pushed it back to the 93.27-93.51 resistance area, where it was turned back by the bears again.


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Bias for the day: slightly bearish
Yesterday the crude tested the 93.3 two times, failing. Overnight was a third test, failing again.

If the bulls can push through 93.3 and then the 93.38-93.51 area, the way is free to 94.
Otherwise, if the bears come in they have to break through 3 support levels, and then the 92.22 ONL, then the next stop is the very wide 91.26-91.75 area. So the bears have to work harder… but I'm on their side


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I try to keep the promise to myself that I only pull the trigger on premium trades.
Today I couldn’t see any real good ones, the ones I examined would give mixed results, I would be about even.
Of course anything can happen the second half of the day, but I’ll stay out, since it’s Friday, and right now it’s painfully slow for me.

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daddy View Post
Bias for the day: slightly bearish
Yesterday the crude tested the 93.3 two times, failing. Overnight was a third test, failing again.

If the bulls can push through 93.3 and then the 93.38-93.51 area, the way is free to 94.
Otherwise, if the bears come in they have to break through 3 support levels, and then the 92.22 ONL, then the next stop is the very wide 91.26-91.75 area. So the bears have to work harder… but I'm on their side

The crude went sideways int he first half of the day. By 9:45, the bears could push down to the second support area, but couldn’t break through. By 10:40 the bulls pushed the price fourth times to 93.3, but couldn’t get through either.
The fifth time around 13:10 was successful, the bulls managed to push throuh to 93.86, but eventually lost power and came back below 93.3.


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Bias for the day: neutral

Right now the crude are just at the levels of the monthly resistance, so today may be choppy.
If the bulls can push through th ONH, the way is free to 94.
Otherwise, if the bears can move the crude below the ONL, the next support is the 92.2-92.3 area.


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It was a very bad day, I just lost the trading game mentally. The positive thing I also learned a lot

First, what did I do wrong:
- I wrote before, that I think it’s gonna be a choppy day. Well, I „forgot” what I saw int he market before the open, so I wasn’t cautious enough.
- Trades 4,5,6 are just were not justified, I have to stick to my usual setups.

What I learned:
- I’ll try to do my setups with trailing stops, be more agressive on trade management. Of course it has disadvantages, maybe I’m stopped out, then it goes my way. I think it’s worth experimenting.
- I definitely overtraded after the losses. Rule from now: after two losing trades, I take a 10 minute break, away from the screens.

Trade 1:
Time: 9:36
Sell 5 @ 93.3
Buy 5 @ 93.36
P&L w. commissions: -323.2
I think the trade idea was good. The crude was streched, and there was a volume imbalance as well. The delta was choppy, though.

Trade 2:
Time: 9:38
Sell 5 @ 93.29
Buy 5 @ 93.32
P&L w. commissions: -173.2
I was still fond of the idea that it’s gonna go down. Instead of breaking down, it went sideways.
It was a losing trade, but I saw the delta decreasing, so I narrowed the stop, which was a good move, so I lost less.

Trade 3:
Time: 10:06
Sell 5 @ 93.53
Buy 2 @ 93.47
Buy 3 @ 93.53
P&L w. commissions: 96.8
It was a good trade, I got the first goal, after that it turned.

Trade 4:
Time: 10:22
Buy 5 @ 93.56
Sell 5 @ 93.51
P&L w. commissions: -273.2
It wasn’t my usual setup, I usually don’t play breakouts. In the future, if I play this, I have to use trailing stops, since most breakouts fail. With a trailing stop the loss would be around 70.

Trade 5:
Time: 10:39
Sell 5 @ 93.62
Buy 5 @ 93.63
P&L w. commissions: -73.2
I shouldn’t have taken this trade, it didn’t meet my requirements: the ONH and prev. close was too close, so it became choppy in this area. I tried to scratch.

Trade 6:
Time: 11:01
Buy 5 @ 93.71
Sell 5 @ 93.66
P&L w. commissions: -293.2
I tried a breakout again, too bad.

P&L for the day: -1039.2
P&L from 09.24: -688.4

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The sreenshot for trade 6:

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Nice job journaling @daddy.

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daddy View Post
Bias for the day: neutral

Right now the crude are just at the levels of the monthly resistance, so today may be choppy.
If the bulls can push through th ONH, the way is free to 94.
Otherwise, if the bears can move the crude below the ONL, the next support is the 92.2-92.3 area.

Well, the bulls won, after chopping around the ONH and prev. close, they pushed it through to the 93.9-94.05 area, then to the next resistance area to 94.61-94.9.
The predefined areas served well:


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Bias for the day: neutral / slightly bearish

Overnight the crude mainly moved in the 94.4-94.76 area. It’s just above the levels of the monthly resistance, but I think it will go back below 93 this week.
I don’t think the bulls can push through the ONH, or not much – its the end of the VolProf (all) there. If they do, it can go a long way…
Otherwise, if the bears can move the crude below the ONL, the next support is the 93.9-94.03 area.

So the areas are:
90.75-90.91
91.3-91.76
92.25-92.4
92.71-93.3
93.5-93.63
93.9-94.03
94.4-94.76
95.73-95.93


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Because the trading mistakes of yesterday, I altered my trading method. Till yesterday my profit target was 20 ticks, with scaling out on the way, and leave 1 contract in to run, if it wants
Today I was more agressive, I used trailing stops instead of fix ones, and planned all out at 10 ticks.
Also managed to pull the trigger on the real good ones, I just waited till the trade shouted in my face: NOW!

I didn’t want to stay in the market after the 11:25 selling frenzy. Personally, I prefer stay out of the elevator when a 900 pound gorilla is in.

Trade 1:
Time: 9:30
Buy 5 @ 94.13
Sell 5 @ 94.23
P&L w. commissions: 476.8
Although I wanted to trade in the short side, I found the crude way too streched. The idea was to get a quick profit on the correction, and it was successful.

Trade 2:
Time: 9:51
Sell 5 @ 93.99
Buy 5 @ 93.89
P&L w. commissions: 476.8
This is the kind of a setup I usually look for: after a long strech to 94 the buying activity decreased, and one could see a paw of a bear. I also aimed for 10 ticks. The target could be more, but of course everybody can read the left side of the chart perfectly

P&L for the day: 953.6
P&L from 09.24: 265.2

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daddy View Post
Bias for the day: neutral / slightly bearish

Overnight the crude mainly moved in the 94.4-94.76 area. It’s just above the levels of the monthly resistance, but I think it will go back below 93 this week.
I don’t think the bulls can push through the ONH, or not much – its the end of the VolProf (all) there. If they do, it can go a long way…
Otherwise, if the bears can move the crude below the ONL, the next support is the 93.9-94.03 area.


Well, the bulls didn't push through the ONH, but I didn't think there's gonna be this huge selling action. I said it'll go back below 93, but I gave this action 2-3 days.
So, after the selling frenzy broke out, the areas didn't work anymore, the crude just cut through them like hot knife in the butter.
I expected the 91.3-91.76 zone to hold, well, it didn't, but most of the overnight trading happened here.


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Bias for the day: neutral

Overnight the crude managed to get back to the 91.18-91.75 area. I think there’s gonna be a correction after yesterday’s dropping, but I’m cautious on the long side. Middle term I’m still bearish.

The areas for today:

90.75-90.91
91.18-91.75
92.29-92.46
92.75-93.3
93.5-93.65
94.11-94.21
94.42-94.6


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No trades today, I couldn’t find a really good setup, so I just stood aside and watched.

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daddy View Post
Bias for the day: neutral

Overnight the crude managed to get back to the 91.18-91.75 area. I think there’s gonna be a correction after yesterday’s dropping, but I’m cautious on the long side. Middle term I’m still bearish.


After the open, the crude was weak, at 10.20 it came back to the ONH-open, which served as a strong support. However, with the inventories report at 10.30, the bulls came in. As I wrote, I was cautious on the long side, which was a good decision: after 12:15 the bears pushed through every support, to the 90.75 close.


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Bias for the day: slightly bearish

I’d be strongly bearish, if the crude was around 90, but overnight, after moving in yesterday’s last support area, it broke down to 88.18.
I’m still bearish, looking for bearish setups, but the last 3 day’s drop was significant, and the crude is way below the VolProf (all). Not exactly waiting for a correction, but cautious because the possibility of it.

The areas for today:
94.43-94.59
94.04-94.20
93.45-93.65
92.71-93.26
91.90-92.10
91.20-91.75
90.71-90.91

..and these three is pretty unstable, I’d say 88.6-89.75 was a great big acceptance area overnight:
89.60-89.75
89.10-89.30
88.62-88.90


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As I wrote before, I looked for setups on the short side. The results:

Trade 1:
Time: 10:29
Sell 5 @ 90.44
Buy 5 @ 90.34
P&L w. commissions: 476.8
After a good strech there was a stop in the movement, right at the lower line of a channel. I counted ont he bears, they came

Trade 2:
Time: 10:43
Sell 5 @ 90.57
Buy 5 @ 90.58
P&L w. commissions: -73.2
A strech again, with decreasing power from the bulls. It bounced back from 90.5.


P&L for the day: 403.6
P&L for the month: 403.6
P&L from 09.24: 668.8


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Today the predefined areas served pretty well.
The crude started from the 89.10-89.30 area, then bouncing below 89.60-89.75, then, after it broke through the 89.8 pivot, it started to bounce between 89.60-89.75 and 90.71-90.91. At the end of the day, it went through 90.71-90.91, prev. close and ONH as well, and closed at the ONH.
Definitely it was a correction day
Can’t wait till the overnight session!


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Bias for the day: bearish below 90, but I expect a silent day, since it’s Friday.

The areas for today:

94.43-94.60
93.98-94.20
93.45-93.66
92.71-93.25
91.90-92.11
91.18-91.76
90.62-90.91
90.20-90.35
89.88-89.96
89.60-89.75
88.84-88.95


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  #29 (permalink)
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Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
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I looked for setups on the short side, but the pull of the bears was slow and steady. Not my favourite environment, so I’m done for today. No trades this time.

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  #30 (permalink)
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Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, NQ, YM, CL and GC
 
Posts: 505 since Jul 2014
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I like trading CL also. Good journal.

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  #31 (permalink)
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daddy View Post
Bias for the day: bearish below 90, but I expect a silent day, since it’s Friday.

Shortly after the open, the bulls came in, but only managed to make the crude rise to the previous close, then the bears pushed through the resistances slowly, but steadily.
After the drop, the price stuck around the 89.6-89.75 area. The bulls tried another push, but the 90.2-90.35 area with the ONL got rid of them, and the price went back the 89.6-89.75 area again, to wait for the close there.

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  #32 (permalink)
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..forgot the printscreen. The areas served pretty well:


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  #33 (permalink)
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I’m still bearish, we’ll see..

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
92.71-93.26
91.9-92.1
91.15-91.75
90.61-90.8
89.94-90.2
89.55-89.78
88.85-88.97
88.6-88.75


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  #34 (permalink)
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  #35 (permalink)
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Trade 1:
Time: 10:38
Sell 5 @ 88.78
Buy 5 @ 88.83
P&L w. commissions: -273.1
Well, I managed to avoid one mistake on Friday, I couldn’t avoid today: I chased the bears. I rarely enter at the bottom, if I do, I need a good load of tension, which wasn’t there today. It was a bad trade idea, so the trade became sour.


Trade 2:
Time: 10:45
Sell 5 @ 88.98
Buy 5 @ 88.98
P&L w. commissions: -3.1
It was risky, because the last two bottoms were on the same level, so one could see the signs of turning. However, I counted of breaking down 89, but it didn’t fall fast enough, so I scratched.


P&L for the day: -276.2
P&L for the month: 127.4
P&L from 09.24: 392.6

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  #36 (permalink)
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After the open, the crude went sideways 89.55-89.78 area, then broke the ONL, and headed to the next support (88.85-88.97), and a pivot. From here, the bulls took over, first they pushed back the price to 89.55-89.78, then, after a long bullflag, they rocketed through th open. At the ONH, the bears came in, but they couldn’t push lower than the open, here the bulls came again, so CL closed close to the ONH.



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  #37 (permalink)
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Bias: slightly bearish

Yesterday int he second half of the day, the bulls won, however, overnight the price came back below the previous close.
If the crude can go below the 89.51-89.75 area, and the ONL, the next support is the 88.91-89.15 area.
If the bulls can push through the 90.6-90.8 area, and the ONH, the next resistance is the 91.14-91.72 area. I don’t think that the bulls can ride through this wide resistance.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
92.67-93.26
91.9-92.1
91.14-91.72
90.6-90.8
90.17-90.3
89.88-90.0
89.51-89.75
88.91-89.15


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  #38 (permalink)
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Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
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For some reason, I couldn't upload the S/R screenshot, here it comes:


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  #39 (permalink)
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Trade 1:
Time: 9:31
Sell 5 @ 89.66
Buy 5 @ 89.62
P&L w. commissions: 146,9
The idea was to break down the ONL, which was touched by the price two times after the open. I saw a huge amount of buy order, which was absorbed by the bears. After this, buyers came in, so the flush down didn’t happen. My position was good for a 3 tick gain.

Trade 2:
Time: 11:14
Sell 5 @ 89.48
Buy 5 @ 89.38
P&L w. commissions: 476,9
At the time the bear trend seemed to end, as the price didn’t make a new low. Apart from this, I’d call the setup one of my favourites: streched with decreasing delta, with volume imbalance on the top. Target reached.

P&L for the day: 623.8
P&L for the month: 751.2
P&L from 09.24: 1016.4



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  #40 (permalink)
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daddy View Post
Bias: slightly bearish

Yesterday int he second half of the day, the bulls won, however, overnight the price came back below the previous close.
If the crude can go below the 89.51-89.75 area, and the ONL, the next support is the 88.91-89.15 area.
If the bulls can push through the 90.6-90.8 area, and the ONH, the next resistance is the 91.14-91.72 area. I don’t think that the bulls can ride through this wide resistance.

The bulls couldn’t even push through the previous close. They bounced back from the 90.17-90.3 area, then broke the ONL, and began to move sideways. Three times tried to go above the ONL as a resistance, failed. The day ended at the 88.91-89.15 zone, more than one point to the bears.



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  #41 (permalink)
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Bias: bearish

Overnight the crude went lower, to 87.39. It looks like the bulls are weak, but to be bearish, I’d like to see the price breaking the ONL.
All eyes on the crude inventories (10:30) today.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
92.67-93.26
91.9-92.11
91.1-91.5
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
89-89.14
88.82-88.9
87.65-88.02

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  #42 (permalink)
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Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
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I couldn't set the zones on screen before open, now here it is:


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  #43 (permalink)
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Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

Until today, I felt really good, but this was a really bad day, I managed to wipe out all of the gains I collected - and more.
I wanted to trade, which was the first mistake. After first two losses I remembered my new rule, that I have to spend 10 minutes off-screen, to rule my emotions.
As soon as I get back – good mood, ready to trade – I saw a missed setup reaches the would-be target. This unleashed something, I just couldn’t sit on my hands – mistake after mistake, overtrading, then tried to win back the losers.
Seriously, I have no idea, how could I do this! I’ve been there before, and thought that I learned the lesson. Seems like I didn’t.
Enough of whining, from here it will be really beautiful to make that 3.000

Trade 1:
Time: 10:47
Sell 5 @ 87.33
Buy 5 @ 87.39
P&L w. commissions: -323,1
It was streched a little, and the delta was decreasing, and the price at the ONL. The idea was that the ONL will hold as a resistance. It was a losing trade, but I’d pull the trigger again, the trade idea was good. After I stopped out, it did broke down.

Trade 2:
Time: 11:04
Sell 5 @ 87.17
Buy 5 @ 87.20
P&L w. commissions: -173.1
Decreasing delta – that’s all of the reasons. If I were sane, I wouldn’t take this.

Trade 3:
Time: 11:31
Sell 5 @ 87.54
Buy 5 @ 87.59
P&L w. commissions: -273.1
It wasn’t streched at all, no tension here – normally I demand my setup to be streched. Bad decision after seeing a good trade I didn’t take.

Trade 4:
Time: 11:32
Sell 5 @ 87.75
Buy 5 @ 87.8
P&L w. commissions: -273.1
Absolutely I just wanted to win back losers – desperately. Very bad decision, I even chased the price. Normally my rule is: If I miss a trade, I wait for the next one.

Trade 5:
Time: 11:45
Buy 5 @ 87.45
Sell 5 @ 87.48
P&L w. commissions: 126.9
My only long. After a little tension ont he ONL, I waited to break out. It did, but there was a sudden turn what stopped me out. I’d take the trade again.

Trade 6:
Time: 11:57
Sell 5 @ 87.77
Buy 5 @ 87.82
P&L w. commissions: -273.1
Plain stupid, nothing validated the trade. There wasn’t even a setup, delta increasing, etc.

P&L for the day: -1188.6
P&L for the month: -437.4
P&L from 09.24: -172.2



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  #44 (permalink)
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Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

..and the 6th one.

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  #45 (permalink)
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Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

I counted ont he bears, they came
By 9:50, the ONL was broken, then the price went sideways between the ONL and a pivot. The bulls tried to break above the open many times, but apparently the bears pulled back the price below the ONL. In the last half hour the bulls had another try, but the price closed below tne ONL.
Overnight is gonna set the direction I think: above today’s open a correction can come, below the pivot the bears are still in control.



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  #46 (permalink)
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Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
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Bias: slightly bearish

As I wrote at yesterday’s close, I was curious about overnight’s action. Well, the bulls tried to break yesterday’s open, but eventually the bears won, they broke the ONL, and even yesterday’s low.
So I’m bearish, but watching the bulls’ action, I think a correction may come.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
92.67-93.26
91.9-92.11
91.1-91.5
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
89-89.14
88.82-88.9
87.65-87.82
87.15-87.42
86.7-86.95



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  #47 (permalink)
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No trades today. It was a slow pull by the bears, I couldn’t see the tension I really like. (Except one time, but I considered it too risky.)

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  #48 (permalink)
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The bears won, however I thought today will be a doji or hammer-like formation – I didn’t expect a point pull by the bears after the last two day’s action.
Below the 86.7-86.95 I had no more zones, so I didn’t how should I handle certain movements. Now I’m waiting for a correction – at least upwards I know (or think I know ) what to expect.



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  #49 (permalink)
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Bias: neutral

Wow! Overnight the bears continued their hard work, the crude was down more than 2 points!
Now I wouldn’t take a short, at least not for longer than 3-4 minutes.
This looks so streched to me, I’m waiting for the correction.
Since it’s Friday, it could be a silent day with low volume – or not

The zones for today: (lots of narrow zones, so I’d be careful)

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.1-91.5
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.1
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.4
86.58-86.72
85.66-85.9
85.1-85.26
84.51-84.8
84.14-84.31

I’m off to the next 2-3 hours, going to a trader conference, but I wanted to post the zones, just in case someone follows my thread. I’m curious, does anybody tests/uses my zones? If you do, could you push a thanks here? Thanks!

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  #50 (permalink)
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Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

After Friday’s correction attempt, the crude opens lower than Friday’s close. Probably that was all the bulls could do, but I’m still cautious..
I’m on the bear side, but a correction still possible.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.1-91.5
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.1
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.4
86.58-86.72
85.69-85.9
85.13-85.24
84.36-84.75
84.14-84.31



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  #51 (permalink)
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Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

Trades for 2014.10.13

Today I was less disciplined like I used to be. Probably it’s the fear because of the last big loss, but today I failed to pull the trigger on the real good ones. Well, it’s a process to get over my emotions, I’m working on it.

Trade 1:
Time: 11:47
Sell 5 @ 84.85
Buy 5 @ 84.84
P&L w. commissions: 26.9
The price broke out from a wedge, but it was streched, and the bears began to come. Unfortunately the fall wasn’t as fast as I expected, so I scratched.

Trade 2:
Time: 12:19
Sell 5 @ 84.81
Buy 5 @ 84.85
P&L w. commissions: -223.1
I was counting on a pullback, which didn’t come. It was a mistake to trade int he 84.8-84.9 zone, with the VPOC in it. I shouldn’t take this trade.

Trade 3:
Time: 12:32
Sell 5 @ 84.12
Buy 5 @ 84.17
P&L w. commissions: -273.1
I put the order right below a huge sell imbalance. The price was on a resistance zone, and a pivot, but it didn’t broke down immediately, it became choppy, so I stopped out.

Trade 4:
Time: 12:35
Sell 5 @ 85.09
Buy 5 @ 85.06
P&L w. commissions: 126.9
I was still believing in the breakdown, but the 85 stopped it, buyers came. I shouldn’t take trade 3 and 4, because the round number was so close.

Trade 5:
Time: 13:21
Sell 5 @ 85.71
Buy 5 @ 85.61
P&L w. commissions: 476.9
I just wrote my journal, finished trading, when I saw this beauty. Very streched, way out of the value area. At the time pulling the trigger I didn’t see the bears coming, but I thought it worths the risk. It did, and if I’m not so impatient, I could double on this one.


P&L for the day: 134.5
P&L for the month: -302.9
P&L from 09.24: -37.7



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  #52 (permalink)
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daddy View Post
Bias: slightly bearish

As I wrote at yesterday’s close, I was curious about overnight’s action. Well, the bulls tried to break yesterday’s open, but eventually the bears won, they broke the ONL, and even yesterday’s low.
So I’m bearish, but watching the bulls’ action, I think a correction may come.

… and a connection came
The day started with the bulls’ action, but first time they bounced off the 85.13-85.24 zone, then tried again, failed again. The bears managed to push back the price to the 84.36-84.75 zone, from where the bulls started their third attack on the 85.13-85.24 zone, and the fourth time they got through it.
The rally was stopped by the 85.69-85.9 zone, where the ONH and previous close was present. After a pullback, the bulls tried to get through it, but the close was under the ONH and prev. close.

The S/R areas served pretty well today:



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  #53 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
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Bias: slightly bearish

Overnight the crude was bouncing around yesterday’s zones, but it opens under prev. close.
I’m bearish under ONL and the 84.5-85.15 zone, but I couldn’t find zones under this area, so today if the bears will win, we can see some new zones developing, pulling down the acceptance area.
Other way, if the bulls can push through the 85.65-85.9 zone, with the ONH and prev. close, the next resistance is 86.58-86.72. Yesterday they couldn’t push through the same setup.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.58-86.72
85.65-85.9
84.5-85.15



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  #54 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
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No trades today. The bears came, as expected, but it was slow and/or choppy for me. Made a promise myself that I’ll be more selective, I’ll only act when a trade begs me to pull the trigger.
This means less trades, so I have to fight the urge to trade.


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  #55 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
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daddy View Post
Bias: slightly bearish

Overnight the crude was bouncing around yesterday’s zones, but it opens under prev. close.
I’m bearish under ONL and the 84.5-85.15 zone, but I couldn’t find zones under this area, so today if the bears will win, we can see some new zones developing, pulling down the acceptance area.
Other way, if the bulls can push through the 85.65-85.9 zone, with the ONH and prev. close, the next resistance is 86.58-86.72. Yesterday they couldn’t push through the same setup.

After the open, the price tried to break out of 84.5-85.15, above open, but the bears pulled back, quickly breaking the ONL below. The bulls tried to climb back to the zone, but at the VWAP they failed twice. From 12:00 the bears began to pull down, slowly, but steadily, didn’t look back till the close.



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  #56 (permalink)
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Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
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Bias: neutral

Now I’m getting cautious again: the crude stockpiles increased a lot according to the Bloomberg News survey, but the price is at the lowest level since June 2012.
So I won’t be surprised if the bulls came in for a small correction, or keeping the price going sideways till tommorow’s EIA report.
Under 80 I have no zones, so if the ONL is breaking down, anything can happen, but I’m betting on sideways/small green candle for the day. We’ll see.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.26-85.16
83.58-83.7
82.97-83.08
81.94-82.15
80.51-81.03
80.12-80.26



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  #57 (permalink)
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Shoot, I just missed a dream setup, while writing the journal. My trading station didn't run, so I couldn't pull the trigger
Absoulte classic: way stretched, with a huge bearish volume imbalance on top.
Next time!

As the Stainless Steel Rat would say: "Turn my back and walk away, and live to graft another day!"


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  #58 (permalink)
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It was a great day, full of possibilities – of course I missed many, but also managed to pull a trigger on some good ones. I’d call it a perfect day for scalping, if the price wouldn’t chop around 6-8c, while moving in one direction.

Trade 1:
Time: 9:17
Sell 5 @ 81.75
Buy 5 @ 81.67
P&L w. commissions: 376.9
Nice setup. After a long strech, the bulls ran out of steam at the prev. close, and the price turned.

Trade 2:
Time: 9:29
Buy 5 @ 81.53
Sell 5 @ 81.54
P&L w. commissions: -73.1
My only long today. The bears’ power was decreasing, with a nice decreasing delta. The price broke upwards, but before reaching target, turned back suddenly, then reached the target. I used a trailing stop, which triggered, so it’s a near-scratch.

Trade 3:
Time: 9:59
Sell 5 @ 82.28
Buy 5 @ 82.20
P&L w. commissions: 376.9
Although it was profitable, I’m not really proud of this one. The strech and also the delta was choppy, but I „felt” something. It wasn’t a first class setup.

Trade 4:
Time: 10:12
Sell 5 @ 82.35
Buy 5 @ 82.4
P&L w. commissions: -273.1
Sooo annoying. I was right, but instead of breaking down, it chopped, then broke down, so I stopped out. It happens with a tight 5c

Trade 5:
Time: 10:38
Sell 5 @ 82.12
Buy 5 @ 82.03
P&L w. commissions: 426.9
Now this is an absolute beauty, the kind of first class setup, I’m looking for. Nice, undisturbed stretch, on top of an acceptance area, with decreasing delta. Loved it.

P&L for the day: 834.5
P&L for the month: 531.6
P&L from 09.24: 796.8



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  #59 (permalink)
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daddy View Post
Bias: neutral

Now I’m getting cautious again: the crude stockpiles increased a lot according to the Bloomberg News survey, but the price is at the lowest level since June 2012.
So I won’t be surprised if the bulls came in for a small correction, or keeping the price going sideways till tommorow’s EIA report.
Under 80 I have no zones, so if the ONL is breaking down, anything can happen, but I’m betting on sideways/small green candle for the day. We’ll see.

The day wasn’t a surprise, sideways it is
The bulls tried to take the lead in the beginning of the day, but the prev. close-81.94-82.15 zone-ONH combo stopped them, then this threesome worked all day as a widened acceptance area. The bulls tried to pierce it 4 times, without success.
The bears pulled the price twice to the 80.51-81.03 area, but couldn’t get below the open.

So the predefined zones worked like this:



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  #60 (permalink)
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Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: TopstepTrader
Trading: NQ, TF, YM
 
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daddy View Post
The day wasn’t a surprise, sideways it is
So the predefined zones worked like this:
Attachment 161912

I am checking your zones over and over again, and I still dont understand why you are not trying to shoot for swings between zones. Here is a very easy to follow rule, it has to be backtested ofc, using your 5M bar:
- Entry rule: If the price arrive to the zone, and close in the zone, enter on the close of the first reversal bar (if it was a support zone, enter with the first green candle close)
- Stop loss: below the entry bar with 1-2 tick (not the zone low)
- Contract management: Manage the risk always by the size of the stop loss, and not by fix contract size!!!
- Profit Target1: low of the next zone, put StopLoss to breakeven
- Profit Target2: low of the next next zone, put StopLoss to the next zone low. Etc...

Some rules ofc has to be consider, to avoid chopping in the zone, but because of the 5M chart, it could be avoidable.

Also has to be considered to:
- Dont take trade if it is not turning in the zone
- Some rules, to enter trade if it is go over the zone (for example, on the retest...)

Etc...

Really. I was checking your zone, and these are very strong ones, and you are managing it and nail it down very well, and you are using a "stupid" scalping technic, with 5 lots... make still no sense for me

Máté
Full time traderLive journal here
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  #61 (permalink)
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matevisky View Post
I am checking your zones over and over again, and I still dont understand why you are not trying to shoot for swings between zones. Here is a very easy to follow rule, it has to be backtested ofc, using your 5M bar:
- Entry rule: If the price arrive to the zone, and close in the zone, enter on the close of the first reversal bar (if it was a support zone, enter with the first green candle close)
- Stop loss: below the entry bar with 1-2 tick (not the zone low)
- Contract management: Manage the risk always by the size of the stop loss, and not by fix contract size!!!
- Profit Target1: low of the next zone, put StopLoss to breakeven
- Profit Target2: low of the next next zone, put StopLoss to the next zone low. Etc...

Some rules ofc has to be consider, to avoid chopping in the zone, but because of the 5M chart, it could be avoidable.

Also has to be considered to:
- Dont take trade if it is not turning in the zone
- Some rules, to enter trade if it is go over the zone (for example, on the retest...)

Etc...

Really. I was checking your zone, and these are very strong ones, and you are managing it and nail it down very well, and you are using a "stupid" scalping technic, with 5 lots... make still no sense for me


When I started trading, I did it on 5 min candle patterns on S/R zones with stocks, with a fixed money management system, with scaling out at certain points, from zone to zone. I wasn’t profitable.
Maybe it was because the lack of experience, or because I used zones someone else calculated, maybe. But I think it was because it wasn’t my style. I tried many times, maybe I will test some similar method in the future, but right now, I’m good with my method.

For some – like you - it may sound strange: why don’t I go for the big bucks, if my zones mostly work?
I tried to find an example, with a good-looking setup on 5 min chart, where I also entered with my method. (As I wrote to you PM, while trading I use tick charts, but also a 5 min chart is open.)
Here it goes, the first one I found: 2014.10.13, trade 5, at 13:21.



So, I could see something, which told me it’s gonna go down. But the question is: how much? I didn’t know, how should I? A hotshot fund manager said once (I forgot the name, but his words stuck) when he was asked what the market will do tomorrow. He said: „It’s gonna fluctuate.”
As you can see, if I’d trade this to go back to the zone, I’d scratch, or be stopped out. And the stopping out was 40 minutes… Instead of this, I was in and out in 15 seconds.

I saw the youtube video, which you linked yesterday. (Thanks again!) The guy reasoned from my heart: what would you choose, man who gives you 25c in every 15 minutes, or the man who might give you 1 dollar in an hour? I take the first one, I’m not ashamed to pick up the change.

Of course, on an other example the system you wrote about can work, but I think there are no absoultes in trading. Sometimes one method works, sometimes other. I stick with mine, and if someone uses my zones for zone-to-zone trading profitably, the better.

One more thing: I realized that the word stupid is in an apostrophe, but it still sounds offensive. I know you didn’t mean it, no offense taken, but I wouldn’t use that on someone’s trading style.

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  #62 (permalink)
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Bias: neutral

Overnight the price went lower with one point from yesterday’s close, but I wouldn’t commit myself in any direction. All eyes on the crude inventories at 11:00am, I’m ready for anything
The chart is pretty crowded with really wide acceptance zones, so I’d be cautious anyways.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.26-85.16
83.58-83.7
82.97-83.08
82.20-82.31
81.53-82
81.24-81.35
80.22-80.86




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  #63 (permalink)
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Maybe I was too cautious, but I was looking for really good, high-probability opportunities. I just traded one, with a scratch.
Now I’m definitely finished for today, because of the madness started from 12:45. These are big guys, I don’t want to be stomped.

Trade 1:
Time: 10:30
Buy 5 @ 81.02
Sell 5 @ 81.02
P&L w. commissions: -23.1
I rarely trade breakouts, but this looked pretty nice: at exactly 81.00, the price stopped five times, with huge buying imbalances on 81.00. The last one was three times bigger than the common big ones, so I gave it a shot. It started to chop, instead of flying at least 20-30 ticks, so I scratched.

P&L for the day: -23.1
P&L for the month: 508.5
P&L from 09.24: 773.7


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At the beginning of the day, the price bounced within the 80.22-80.86 zone, then broke out to 81.24-81.35, but it came back to the open. From here the bulls pushed the price to the 81.53-82-prev. close-ONH combo, pulled back, and after the second test, there was a really huge breakout at 82.
The bulls ran over 3 tiny zones, burned through all the selling orders, finally the 84.26-85.26 zone stopped the buying frenzy. I wrote I’m ready for anything, but I wasn’t ready for this huge spike, so I stayed out
From the 84.83 high the price was pulled down slowly to the 82.2-82.31 zone and pivot point.

I’ll be off today for a small vacation, so I can’t post the zones, back on track Monday.



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  #65 (permalink)
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Bias: neutral

I’m still bearish long term, but I haven’t got the foggiest what might happen today. On Friday on the daily chart there’s a doji, which suggests that today the downward trend might continue, but there’s also a big room for a bullish correction after the last four month’s big drop.
Actually, from 80.6 to 82.6 it’s nearly a whole big acceptance area, so I’ll be very cautious here.

So I’m using my zones with my eyes wide open
Note that the Dec. contract is active!

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.26-85.16
83.55-83.71
82.97-83.07
82.06-82.60
81.6-81.85
81.20-81.35
80.61-81



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  #66 (permalink)
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No trades today. I couldn’t find a really good setup, then, as the price just fell in the first two hours, I began to feel the urge to trade. If I feel I have to trade, I usually (always ) lose big, so this time I sat on my hands.
I only had one, imaginary trade, of course it was a winner. Imaginary trades are always winners


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  #67 (permalink)
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daddy View Post
Bias: neutral

I’m still bearish long term, but I haven’t got the foggiest what might happen today. On Friday on the daily chart there’s a doji, which suggests that today the downward trend might continue, but there’s also a big room for a bullish correction after the last four month’s big drop.
Actually, from 80.6 to 82.6 it’s nearly a whole big acceptance area, so I’ll be very cautious here.

So I’m using my zones with my eyes wide open
Note that the Dec. contract is active!

The market was as insecure about the direction as I was.
Just after the open the bears took over, pushed through the ONL and 81.6-81.85 and 81.2-81.35 zones. I thought, okay, the bears will win today, but finally the 80.61-81 zone stopped them. After the second test of this zone the bulls pushed the price all the way back, nearly to the open, but stayed under. Then the price moved sideways till the close.
The price stayed between 80.6- 82.6, as I wrote it was nearly a whole big acceptance area, so we still don’t know about the direction. Maybe overnight will tell…

How the predefined zones played out today:



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  #68 (permalink)
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Bias: neutral

Overnight the price tried to break yesterday’s ONH, which is the third time, and the top of the big acceptance area from 80.6 to 82.6 (it contains more areas, but in practice it behaves like one).
I’m still a bear for longer term, but if the price can get over 82.73, we might see some correction, the next resistance is at 82.95-83.07.
I think it’s gonna be a choppy day again.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.3-85.15
83.57-83.7
82.95-83.07
82.3-82.46
81.6-82.1
81-81.32



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  #69 (permalink)
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A choppy day, but with big runs in either way.. I love these kind of days!
Done for the day.

Trade 1:
Time: 9:06
Sell 2 @ 83
Buy 2 @ 82.91
P&L w. commissions: 170,76
It was really streched, although the delta was choppy. I pulled the trigger because of the round number. The drop happened so fast, that only 2 contract filled out of five. Closed in target, too bad I didn’t get filled the whole order

Trade 2:
Time: 9:13
Sell 5 @ 82.88
Buy 5 @ 82.96
P&L w. commissions: -423.1
It looked really good, but turned out to be very sour. Took the order to 82.89, believing that it’s gonna break down because of the double top at round number. It moved fast in, then really fast upwards, so I lost a big deal of slippage as well, 8 ticks instead 5. It happens.

Trade 3:
Time: 9:39
Sell 5 @ 83.19
Buy 5 @ 83.09
P&L w. commissions: 476.9
Well, the signs were mixed, but after a huge bullish delta came a bearish imbalance, and the bulls’ volume dried out. I gave it a shot, closed in target.

Trade 4:
Time: 10:21
Sell 5 @ 82.58
Buy 5 @ 82.47
P&L w. commissions: 526.9
Now this was a beauty. Although it was ranging between two zones, 6 333tk bars marked the buyers’ activity. The price tried to broke down 3 times, the 4th succeeded. Instead of my usual trailing stop I used a fix one, believing in a big breakdown with some chopping, so I followed candle tops with my stop.

P&L for the day: 751.46
P&L for the month: 1259.96
P&L from 09.24: 1525.16


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  #70 (permalink)
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daddy View Post
Bias: neutral

Overnight the price tried to break yesterday’s ONH, which is the third time, and the top of the big acceptance area from 80.6 to 82.6 (it contains more areas, but in practice it behaves like one).
I’m still a bear for longer term, but if the price can get over 82.73, we might see some correction, the next resistance is at 82.95-83.07.
I think it’s gonna be a choppy day again.

Choppy it was, still no direction.
After the open the bulls did break above ONH, but the first resistance stopped them. From here the bears could only pull back to the ONH, where the bulls entered again, and tried to break the (now widened) resistance area, but only could make 83.26 the day’s high.
From here the bears pulled back the price to the 81.6-82.1 area, which also contained the ONL and prev. close.
There was one attempt by the bulls, but the 82.3-82.46 zone with the open stopped them, from here the price moved sideways for a while. Before the close, the bulls showed some strenght, and break 82.3-82.46 zone with the open.

How the predefined zones played out today:



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  #71 (permalink)
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Bias: neutral

There’s a beautiful triangle on the daily chart, so sooner or later there should be a directional move.
I’m still a long-time bear, but I wouldn’t be surprised, if the price would move up 3-4 points before heading down again.

Overnight the price is slightly up from yesterday’s close, so the bulls might try to break above the 82.95-83.07 zone. If they can stay above 83.3, the next resistance is the 83.57-83.7 zone.

So which way? No idea. As I wrote before, there’s a huge acceptance area is forming, today there’s nearly a point wide one, and also, from 81 to 83.10 the areas are moving closer and closer, into each other, so in this wide range the picture is pretty much become blurred. I’d like to see the price move from this 2-point-range before forming my 2-3 day term opinion.
It's inventory day, so maybe we'll see something..

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.3-85.15
83.57-83.7
82.95-83.07
81.7-82.56
81-81.32



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  #72 (permalink)
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No trades today. Very choppy, couldn’t find a good setup, and still in that confusing 2 point range I wrote about at today’s S/R zones. I call it a day, waiting for tomorrow.


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  #73 (permalink)
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daddy View Post
Bias: neutral

There’s a beautiful triangle on the daily chart, so sooner or later there should be a directional move.
I’m still a long-time bear, but I wouldn’t be surprised, if the price would move up 3-4 points before heading down again.

Overnight the price is slightly up from yesterday’s close, so the bulls might try to break above the 82.95-83.07 zone. If they can stay above 83.3, the next resistance is the 83.57-83.7 zone.

So which way? No idea. As I wrote before, there’s a huge acceptance area is forming, today there’s nearly a point wide one, and also, from 81 to 83.10 the areas are moving closer and closer, into each other, so in this wide range the picture is pretty much become blurred. I’d like to see the price move from this 2-point-range before forming my 2-3 day term opinion.
It's inventory day, so maybe we'll see something..

Well, the bulls tried, but I wouldn’t say hard enough. After the open, they try to break above the ONH and 82.95-83.07 zone, but couldn’t make it.
From here the price moved sideways till the inventory report, where the bears stepped in, thanks to the actual 7.1 M barrels, since the forecast was 2.8 M.
The price went to the bottom of the 81.7-82.56 zone. From here the bulls pushed the price to the open, then lost control, and the bears won the day, with the close at 80.52.

How the predefined zones played out today:



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  #74 (permalink)
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Bias: neutral

The triangle from yesterday’s daily chart was gone, but I wouldn’t call the bears’ move really directional, overnight they stopped at 80, again. Can the price break down below 79.78? Will the bears show some balls today? One could see the direction again, then.

Unfortunately, the widening and blurring of the zones continues, they are growing into each other. Now I’d like to see the price come out of the 80-83.1 area, preferably downwards.
Still a long-time bear, the fundamentals should draw the price down, yesterday’s inventories was huge, but I’m afraid the chopping may continue…

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.3-85.15
83.57-83.7
82.9-83.06
81.7-82.5
81-81.28
80.37-80.79



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  #75 (permalink)
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No trades. Today I was wery unfocused, I saw two good opportunities, but failed to pull the trigger, I was too slow, one could say dreamy. One would be a scratch, one would reach the target. I think I gonna go sleep now
Friday afternoon I won’t be here, so can’t post the zones.

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  #76 (permalink)
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daddy View Post
Bias: neutral

The triangle from yesterday’s daily chart was gone, but I wouldn’t call the bears’ move really directional, overnight they stopped at 80, again. Can the price break down below 79.78? Will the bears show some balls today? One could see the direction again, then.

Unfortunately, the widening and blurring of the zones continues, they are growing into each other. Now I’d like to see the price come out of the 80-83.1 area, preferably downwards.
Still a long-time bear, the fundamentals should draw the price down, yesterday’s inventories was huge, but I’m afraid the chopping may continue…

….and the chopping continued, still no direction.
The price bounced between 81-81.28 and the 81.7-82.5 zones all day, pretty boring.

How the predefined zones played out:




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  #77 (permalink)
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Bias: bearish

The bears finally pulled back the price below 80! I think it’s gonna broke down, let’s see if the bulls dare to step in..
Otherwise, up from 80.32, there are some really wide, sticky zones, so if the bears don’t win today, I think it’s sideways again.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.3-85.15
83.57-83.7
82.9-83.06
81.6-82.51
80.9-81.35
80.32-80.61


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  #78 (permalink)
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Posts: 19 since Oct 2014
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I will begin to follow you, because i^m searching for a new technic to trade the same asset as you.

Thx and keep it up!

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  #79 (permalink)
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No trades today. I missed a good entry at the open, and I didn't want to chase, so intead of (over)trading, I experimented with new setups on my paper account.

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daddy View Post
Bias: bearish

The bears finally pulled back the price below 80! I think it’s gonna broke down, let’s see if the bulls dare to step in..
Otherwise, up from 80.32, there are some really wide, sticky zones, so if the bears don’t win today, I think it’s sideways again.

Sorry for the late recap, I think I caught a flu or something.. Don’t feel so well.

It did broke down to 79.44, but from 10:00 the bulls dared
The bulls pushed back the price to the 80.9-81.35 zone, so the close was just below the prev. close.

How the predefined zones played out today:



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  #81 (permalink)
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Bias: neutral

The price now is in the „sticky zone” again. As I wrote before, that I’d like to see the price come out of the 80-83.1 area, because the acceptance zones in this area are growing into each other – see today’s chart: from 80.5 to 82.5 it’s practically one wide zone.
If the price doesn’t move out, it’s sideways again.
I’m bearish below the ONL.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.3-85.15
83.57-83.7
82.9-83.06
81.5-82.50
80.9-81.25
80.45-80.76
79.54-79.84



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  #82 (permalink)
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Trade 1:
Time: 11:02
Sell 5 @ 81.39
Buy 5 @ 81.28
P&L w. commissions: 526.9
Really streched, with a bearish volume imbalance on top, and the sudden disappearance of bull power.

P&L for the day: 526.9
P&L for the month: 1786.86
P&L from 09.24: 2052.06


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daddy View Post
Bias: neutral

The price now is in the „sticky zone” again. As I wrote before, that I’d like to see the price come out of the 80-83.1 area, because the acceptance zones in this area are growing into each other – see today’s chart: from 80.5 to 82.5 it’s practically one wide zone.
If the price doesn’t move out, it’s sideways again.
I’m bearish below the ONL.

The price didn’t come out of the „sticky zone”, one could see a beautiful sideways move, in a simmetric triangle. In the last 20 minutes the bulls tried to break out, but only managed to close just above open.

How the predefined zones played out today:



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  #84 (permalink)
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Bias: neutral

At last, somebody – the bulls – are bored to stuck in the zones, so they try to break out.
Let’s see what happens..

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.3-85.15
83.57-83.7
82.9-83.06
82.41-82.61
82.09-82.28
81.68-81.92
80.9-81.25
80.45-80.75
79.54-79.84


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daddy View Post
Bias: neutral

At last, somebody – the bulls – are bored to stuck in the zones, so they try to break out.
Let’s see what happens..

Well, the bulls couldn’t make it, so basically the price is back to the „sticky zone”. The bears slightly won.

How the predefined zones played out:



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  #86 (permalink)
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Bias: slighlty bearish

Overnight the bears worked very hard to pull back the price.
A very interesting thing: the ONL is exactly the same as yesterday’s: 81.21. So probably if the bears can work through it, and break below 81, maybe the crude finally finds its way..
Still a long-term bear.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.3-85.15
83.57-83.7
82.9-83.06
82.42-82.7
81.8-82.25
81-81.55
80.44-80.75
79.54-79.84


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daddy View Post
Bias: slighlty bearish

Overnight the bears worked very hard to pull back the price.
A very interesting thing: the ONL is exactly the same as yesterday’s: 81.21. So probably if the bears can work through it, and break below 81, maybe the crude finally finds its way..
Still a long-term bear.

The bears tried, but not hard enough. The price broke below 81, but always came back to the 81-81.55 zone. Sideways move ruled the whole day, but at least the close was below the ONL.
Maybe tomorrow the bears will finally rise..

How the predefined zones played out:



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  #88 (permalink)
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Bias: neutral

Overnight the bulls tried t climb some more, but stuck at 81.
The open is in the very wide 80.7-81.45 zone, above itt he next resistance is 81.7-81.85, below the next support 80.12-80.31.
Still a long-term bear, but it could be sideways again.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.3-85.15
83.57-83.7
82.9-83.06
82.1-82.51
81.7-81.85
80.7-81.45
80.12-80.31
79.6-79.8

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  #89 (permalink)
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Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: TopstepTrader
Trading: NQ, TF, YM
 
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daddy View Post
The bears tried, but not hard enough. The price broke below 81, but always came back to the 81-81.55 zone. Sideways move ruled the whole day, but at least the close was below the ONL.
Maybe tomorrow the bears will finally rise..

Did you trade it. I have marked my observetion based on your levels. 3 sweatspot entry only based on your levels.
The 1st one is easy to take. Rejection at if I am right at the market open
The 2nd one has been comfirmed with divergency
And a 3rd one is clear also.

Only using your levels, and the oscilator down. I see you are trying to justify some trend levels with SMA or EMA but really the trend should be much stronger to these kind of move I guess. I am not an expert on Min chart, so please keep that on mind. But as I said before, and I do believe it right now, if you are a good profile trader, and marking the levels like this, than you should skip the scalp and look for bigger moves.

Máté
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matevisky View Post
Did you trade it. I have marked my observetion based on your levels. 3 sweatspot entry only based on your levels.
The 1st one is easy to take. Rejection at if I am right at the market open
The 2nd one has been comfirmed with divergency
And a 3rd one is clear also.

Only using your levels, and the oscilator down. I see you are trying to justify some trend levels with SMA or EMA but really the trend should be much stronger to these kind of move I guess. I am not an expert on Min chart, so please keep that on mind. But as I said before, and I do believe it right now, if you are a good profile trader, and marking the levels like this, than you should skip the scalp and look for bigger moves.

Nope, I didn't trade last week, I was pretty sick. Still not feeling good, but tomorrow I'll start again.
I don't have the nerve to trade on a 5 min chart, I tried before. I moved my stops too soon, or didn't move it when I should have, couldn't let the winners run, and so on. Made all the mistakes a trader could.
Now I prefer trades which I enter and exit within a couple of minutes, but I just reviewed last month's trading, and preparing for this one, with looser rules, I let myself enter on bigger timeframe as well.
We'll see.

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  #91 (permalink)
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daddy View Post
Nope, I didn't trade last week, I was pretty sick. Still not feeling good, but tomorrow I'll start again.
I don't have the nerve to trade on a 5 min chart, I tried before. I moved my stops too soon, or didn't move it when I should have, couldn't let the winners run, and so on. Made all the mistakes a trader could.
Now I prefer trades which I enter and exit within a couple of minutes, but I just reviewed last month's trading, and preparing for this one, with looser rules, I let myself enter on bigger timeframe as well.
We'll see.

Cool. Best thing to find the strategy which could be easly reviewed. In your case it is much harder, because you have to setup a lots of line, which never will be fullz objective

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P&L for the month: 1786.86, so couldn’t reach the 3000 target.
I just asked myself the question, how could it be better, and I found out the followings:

My intention was trading with maximum 5 contracts, but I always traded with 5 contracts. The reason was I believed in the „maths rule”, that a trader should always risk the same amount of money, so one loser doesn’t wipe out multiple wins.
I’m starting to believe I shouldn’t follow this rule, because it doesn’t take the probability in account.
The problem was I aimed with full 5 contracts to not-so-good setups, I didn’t feel the „vibe” with these, but obeyed the maths rule.
This month I’ll try the following: basic amount is 2 contracts, and if my heart beats faster on a setup, I’ll go with 5.

The next problem the max daily loss. I probably could make it, if I didn’t blow up several days’ gain in one single day, trying to „win back” from the market. So from now on, the max daily loss is 300 USD, then I stop trading, no matter what. If I see that I’m approaching the loss limit, I will reduce size to even one contract, and if the calculated loss doesn’t fit in the budget, I don’t take it.

The third is the types of trades. I aimed for the same setup whole month: ideally streched up, with volume imbalance, decreasing delta. These kind of trades are rare, so most of the time I felt frustrated, I wanted to trade something.
From now on, I aim for:
- streched up, with volume imbalance, decreasing delta. 5 c stop, 10c or 20c target
- scalp around big lots on bid/ask side: 5c stop, 5c or 10c target
- breakouts/breakdowns: 5c trailig stop, 10c or 20c target
- longer timeframe trade, if the setup looks good. R/R: 1:2

I know, it’s not objective at all, - reflecting to @matevisky ’s latest post - it’s not a trading system, so it’s hard to review. But my problem with exact rules, and exact systems that I think they are rigid.
A setup meeting all the rules can be a loser, and trades out of every rule can be a winner – as I found out long time ago there’s no holy grail. Right, @matevisky?

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Bias: slightly bearish

At last! Yesterday, at the end of the day, the bears did a great job, which continued overnight as well. Overall, from 80 the price dropped to 75.84!
I’m still bearish, but this was a huge drop, so I’m gonna be cautious, watching the bulls. Today I think there’s gonna be a correction – or the free fall begins if the bears are still strong…

The zones for today:

85.65-85.9
84.3-85.15
83.57-83.7
82.9-83.06
82.1-82.51
81.7-81.85
80.9-81.35
80.45-80.65
79.9-80.18
78.23-78.41
77.36-77.61
76.95-77.03
76.58-76.8
76.27-76.4

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daddy View Post
Bias: slightly bearish

At last! Yesterday, at the end of the day, the bears did a great job, which continued overnight as well. Overall, from 80 the price dropped to 75.84!
I’m still bearish, but this was a huge drop, so I’m gonna be cautious, watching the bulls. Today I think there’s gonna be a correction – or the free fall begins if the bears are still strong…

Instead correction or freefall, the end-of–the-day candle was a directionless one: the bears won the first half of the day, then the bulls entered, and drove back the price to the open.
The price stayed within the last 4 zones all the day.

How the predefined zones played out:
(From now on, I’ll show this in 333tk, which I mainly use, instead of the 5-min chart.)


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I'd like to thank all my readers who voted for my journal at the trading journal contest!
I'm a newcomer at futures.io (formerly BMT), and still, I got a good amount of votes. Next year I'm gonna win!

Thanks again!

daddy

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Bias: slightly bullish

Yesterday showed that the bears maybe ran out of steam, the bulls bushed back the price. The same scenario happened overnight.
Watching the daily chart, the correction I waited for yesterday, might happen today, if the bulls will like the 10.30 crude inventories report.

The zones for today:

83.57-83.7
82.9-83.06
82.1-82.51
81.7-81.85
80.9-81.35
80.45-80.65
79.9-80.18
78.23-78.41
77.47-77.6
77.12-77.37
76.51-76.83

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  #97 (permalink)
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Bias: neutral

What yesterday the bulls achieved a small correction, but overnight the price came back to yesterday’s open.
I’m neutral today.

The zones for today:

84.3-85.15
83.57-83.7
82.9-83.06
82.1-82.55
80.9-81.4
80.45-80.65
79.84-80.20
78.72-78.92
78.21-78.6
77.71-77.98
77.1-77.26
76.5-76.91

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Greed and fear, the trader’s company. For me, fear striked. I have no idea, what’s happened in my mind recently, but I had some kind of trader’s block. Yesterday was full of possibilities, today the first two hours also, but I just couldn’t pull the trigger.

However, I tried to do something about it, and very cautiously, I chose three trades today:

Trade 1:
Time: 10:22
Sell 2 @ 77.49
Buy 2 @ 77.52
P&L w. commissions: -69.24
After a strech, the price stopped above .50. I felt it’s gonna break down – or maybe I just wanted to shake off the fear from my trigger finger – so I aimed for 10c with 5c stop. After a couple of ticks I saw it’s jammed, so tried to scratch, but I had some slippage. Happens.

Trade 2:
Time: 10:49
Buy 2 @ 77.66
Sell 2 @ 77.76
P&L w. commissions: 190.76
Breakout trade. It was a strange one, since it wasn’t on top or bottom of something, but I entered in the middle of the wave. I saw huge buy imbalances on the 333tk candle top. Target reached.

Trade 3:
Time: 12:18
Buy 2 @ 78.02
Sell 2 @ 78.11
P&L w. commissions: 170.76
Breakout trade. Pretty much the same scenario, like in trade 2, but the buy imbalance was exactly on 78.00. For this reason, I thought I should aim for 20c instead of 10c, but I heard an inner voice saying „don’t be greedy” , so aimed for 10c. Glad I did, target reached.


P&L for the day: 292.28
P&L for the month: 292.28
P&L from 09.24: 2344.34

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.. forgot the printscreens, here they are.

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daddy View Post
Bias: neutral

What yesterday the bulls achieved a small correction, but overnight the price came back to yesterday’s open.
I’m neutral today.

Now that’s what I call neutral, the crude nearly closed at the open.
Sideways all day between three zones.

How the predefined zones played out:
(The 333tk is too small, so back to the 5-min chart. )


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