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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile
Started:September 24th, 2014 (07:49 AM) by daddy Views / Replies:6,532 / 147
Last Reply:December 4th, 2014 (09:57 AM) Attachments:123

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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile

Old October 16th, 2014, 09:24 AM   #61 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Favorite Futures: oil
 
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matevisky View Post
I am checking your zones over and over again, and I still dont understand why you are not trying to shoot for swings between zones. Here is a very easy to follow rule, it has to be backtested ofc, using your 5M bar:
- Entry rule: If the price arrive to the zone, and close in the zone, enter on the close of the first reversal bar (if it was a support zone, enter with the first green candle close)
- Stop loss: below the entry bar with 1-2 tick (not the zone low)
- Contract management: Manage the risk always by the size of the stop loss, and not by fix contract size!!!
- Profit Target1: low of the next zone, put StopLoss to breakeven
- Profit Target2: low of the next next zone, put StopLoss to the next zone low. Etc...

Some rules ofc has to be consider, to avoid chopping in the zone, but because of the 5M chart, it could be avoidable.

Also has to be considered to:
- Dont take trade if it is not turning in the zone
- Some rules, to enter trade if it is go over the zone (for example, on the retest...)

Etc...

Really. I was checking your zone, and these are very strong ones, and you are managing it and nail it down very well, and you are using a "stupid" scalping technic, with 5 lots... make still no sense for me


When I started trading, I did it on 5 min candle patterns on S/R zones with stocks, with a fixed money management system, with scaling out at certain points, from zone to zone. I wasnít profitable.
Maybe it was because the lack of experience, or because I used zones someone else calculated, maybe. But I think it was because it wasnít my style. I tried many times, maybe I will test some similar method in the future, but right now, Iím good with my method.

For some Ė like you - it may sound strange: why donít I go for the big bucks, if my zones mostly work?
I tried to find an example, with a good-looking setup on 5 min chart, where I also entered with my method. (As I wrote to you PM, while trading I use tick charts, but also a 5 min chart is open.)
Here it goes, the first one I found: 2014.10.13, trade 5, at 13:21.

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So, I could see something, which told me itís gonna go down. But the question is: how much? I didnít know, how should I? A hotshot fund manager said once (I forgot the name, but his words stuck) when he was asked what the market will do tomorrow. He said: ĄItís gonna fluctuate.Ē
As you can see, if Iíd trade this to go back to the zone, Iíd scratch, or be stopped out. And the stopping out was 40 minutesÖ Instead of this, I was in and out in 15 seconds.

I saw the youtube video, which you linked yesterday. (Thanks again!) The guy reasoned from my heart: what would you choose, man who gives you 25c in every 15 minutes, or the man who might give you 1 dollar in an hour? I take the first one, Iím not ashamed to pick up the change.

Of course, on an other example the system you wrote about can work, but I think there are no absoultes in trading. Sometimes one method works, sometimes other. I stick with mine, and if someone uses my zones for zone-to-zone trading profitably, the better.

One more thing: I realized that the word stupid is in an apostrophe, but it still sounds offensive. I know you didnít mean it, no offense taken, but I wouldnít use that on someoneís trading style.

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Old October 16th, 2014, 10:01 AM   #62 (permalink)
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Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones for 2014.10.16.

Bias: neutral

Overnight the price went lower with one point from yesterdayís close, but I wouldnít commit myself in any direction. All eyes on the crude inventories at 11:00am, Iím ready for anything
The chart is pretty crowded with really wide acceptance zones, so Iíd be cautious anyways.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.26-85.16
83.58-83.7
82.97-83.08
82.20-82.31
81.53-82
81.24-81.35
80.22-80.86

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Old October 16th, 2014, 02:09 PM   #63 (permalink)
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Trades for 2014.10.16.


Maybe I was too cautious, but I was looking for really good, high-probability opportunities. I just traded one, with a scratch.
Now Iím definitely finished for today, because of the madness started from 12:45. These are big guys, I donít want to be stomped.

Trade 1:
Time: 10:30
Buy 5 @ 81.02
Sell 5 @ 81.02
P&L w. commissions: -23.1
I rarely trade breakouts, but this looked pretty nice: at exactly 81.00, the price stopped five times, with huge buying imbalances on 81.00. The last one was three times bigger than the common big ones, so I gave it a shot. It started to chop, instead of flying at least 20-30 ticks, so I scratched.

P&L for the day: -23.1
P&L for the month: 508.5
P&L from 09.24: 773.7


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Old October 17th, 2014, 03:39 AM   #64 (permalink)
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S/R zones review for 2014.10.16.

At the beginning of the day, the price bounced within the 80.22-80.86 zone, then broke out to 81.24-81.35, but it came back to the open. From here the bulls pushed the price to the 81.53-82-prev. close-ONH combo, pulled back, and after the second test, there was a really huge breakout at 82.
The bulls ran over 3 tiny zones, burned through all the selling orders, finally the 84.26-85.26 zone stopped the buying frenzy. I wrote Iím ready for anything, but I wasnít ready for this huge spike, so I stayed out
From the 84.83 high the price was pulled down slowly to the 82.2-82.31 zone and pivot point.

Iíll be off today for a small vacation, so I canít post the zones, back on track Monday.

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Old October 20th, 2014, 10:01 AM   #65 (permalink)
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S/R zones for 2014.10.20

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Bias: neutral

Iím still bearish long term, but I havenít got the foggiest what might happen today. On Friday on the daily chart thereís a doji, which suggests that today the downward trend might continue, but thereís also a big room for a bullish correction after the last four monthís big drop.
Actually, from 80.6 to 82.6 itís nearly a whole big acceptance area, so Iíll be very cautious here.

So Iím using my zones with my eyes wide open
Note that the Dec. contract is active!

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.26-85.16
83.55-83.71
82.97-83.07
82.06-82.60
81.6-81.85
81.20-81.35
80.61-81

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Old October 20th, 2014, 02:04 PM   #66 (permalink)
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Trades for 2014.10.20.

No trades today. I couldnít find a really good setup, then, as the price just fell in the first two hours, I began to feel the urge to trade. If I feel I have to trade, I usually (always ) lose big, so this time I sat on my hands.
I only had one, imaginary trade, of course it was a winner. Imaginary trades are always winners


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Old October 20th, 2014, 03:31 PM   #67 (permalink)
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S/R zones review for 2014.10.20.


daddy View Post
Bias: neutral

Iím still bearish long term, but I havenít got the foggiest what might happen today. On Friday on the daily chart thereís a doji, which suggests that today the downward trend might continue, but thereís also a big room for a bullish correction after the last four monthís big drop.
Actually, from 80.6 to 82.6 itís nearly a whole big acceptance area, so Iíll be very cautious here.

So Iím using my zones with my eyes wide open
Note that the Dec. contract is active!

The market was as insecure about the direction as I was.
Just after the open the bears took over, pushed through the ONL and 81.6-81.85 and 81.2-81.35 zones. I thought, okay, the bears will win today, but finally the 80.61-81 zone stopped them. After the second test of this zone the bulls pushed the price all the way back, nearly to the open, but stayed under. Then the price moved sideways till the close.
The price stayed between 80.6- 82.6, as I wrote it was nearly a whole big acceptance area, so we still donít know about the direction. Maybe overnight will tellÖ

How the predefined zones played out today:

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Old October 21st, 2014, 10:01 AM   #68 (permalink)
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S/R zones for 2014.10.21

Bias: neutral

Overnight the price tried to break yesterdayís ONH, which is the third time, and the top of the big acceptance area from 80.6 to 82.6 (it contains more areas, but in practice it behaves like one).
Iím still a bear for longer term, but if the price can get over 82.73, we might see some correction, the next resistance is at 82.95-83.07.
I think itís gonna be a choppy day again.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.3-85.15
83.57-83.7
82.95-83.07
82.3-82.46
81.6-82.1
81-81.32

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Old October 21st, 2014, 12:24 PM   #69 (permalink)
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Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

Trades for 2014.10.21.

A choppy day, but with big runs in either way.. I love these kind of days!
Done for the day.

Trade 1:
Time: 9:06
Sell 2 @ 83
Buy 2 @ 82.91
P&L w. commissions: 170,76
It was really streched, although the delta was choppy. I pulled the trigger because of the round number. The drop happened so fast, that only 2 contract filled out of five. Closed in target, too bad I didnít get filled the whole order

Trade 2:
Time: 9:13
Sell 5 @ 82.88
Buy 5 @ 82.96
P&L w. commissions: -423.1
It looked really good, but turned out to be very sour. Took the order to 82.89, believing that itís gonna break down because of the double top at round number. It moved fast in, then really fast upwards, so I lost a big deal of slippage as well, 8 ticks instead 5. It happens.

Trade 3:
Time: 9:39
Sell 5 @ 83.19
Buy 5 @ 83.09
P&L w. commissions: 476.9
Well, the signs were mixed, but after a huge bullish delta came a bearish imbalance, and the bullsí volume dried out. I gave it a shot, closed in target.

Trade 4:
Time: 10:21
Sell 5 @ 82.58
Buy 5 @ 82.47
P&L w. commissions: 526.9
Now this was a beauty. Although it was ranging between two zones, 6 333tk bars marked the buyersí activity. The price tried to broke down 3 times, the 4th succeeded. Instead of my usual trailing stop I used a fix one, believing in a big breakdown with some chopping, so I followed candle tops with my stop.

P&L for the day: 751.46
P&L for the month: 1259.96
P&L from 09.24: 1525.16


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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141021_trade_1.jpg   daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141021_trade_2.jpg   daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141021_trade_3.jpg   daddy's CL trading w. volume profile-20141021_trade_4.jpg  
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Old October 22nd, 2014, 04:26 AM   #70 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: oil
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 203 received

S/R zones review for 2014.10.21.



daddy View Post
Bias: neutral

Overnight the price tried to break yesterdayís ONH, which is the third time, and the top of the big acceptance area from 80.6 to 82.6 (it contains more areas, but in practice it behaves like one).
Iím still a bear for longer term, but if the price can get over 82.73, we might see some correction, the next resistance is at 82.95-83.07.
I think itís gonna be a choppy day again.

Choppy it was, still no direction.
After the open the bulls did break above ONH, but the first resistance stopped them. From here the bears could only pull back to the ONH, where the bulls entered again, and tried to break the (now widened) resistance area, but only could make 83.26 the dayís high.
From here the bears pulled back the price to the 81.6-82.1 area, which also contained the ONL and prev. close.
There was one attempt by the bulls, but the 82.3-82.46 zone with the open stopped them, from here the price moved sideways for a while. Before the close, the bulls showed some strenght, and break 82.3-82.46 zone with the open.

How the predefined zones played out today:

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If you like my journal, please help me win the journal contest. All you have to do is push a íThanksí on the #14 post (daddy) on this link: https://futures.io/feedback-announcements/33355-october-trading-journal-contest-w-prizes-2.html Thank you!

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