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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile


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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile

  #51 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

Trades for 2014.10.13

Trades for 2014.10.13

Today I was less disciplined like I used to be. Probably it’s the fear because of the last big loss, but today I failed to pull the trigger on the real good ones. Well, it’s a process to get over my emotions, I’m working on it.

Trade 1:
Time: 11:47
Sell 5 @ 84.85
Buy 5 @ 84.84
P&L w. commissions: 26.9
The price broke out from a wedge, but it was streched, and the bears began to come. Unfortunately the fall wasn’t as fast as I expected, so I scratched.

Trade 2:
Time: 12:19
Sell 5 @ 84.81
Buy 5 @ 84.85
P&L w. commissions: -223.1
I was counting on a pullback, which didn’t come. It was a mistake to trade int he 84.8-84.9 zone, with the VPOC in it. I shouldn’t take this trade.

Trade 3:
Time: 12:32
Sell 5 @ 84.12
Buy 5 @ 84.17
P&L w. commissions: -273.1
I put the order right below a huge sell imbalance. The price was on a resistance zone, and a pivot, but it didn’t broke down immediately, it became choppy, so I stopped out.

Trade 4:
Time: 12:35
Sell 5 @ 85.09
Buy 5 @ 85.06
P&L w. commissions: 126.9
I was still believing in the breakdown, but the 85 stopped it, buyers came. I shouldn’t take trade 3 and 4, because the round number was so close.

Trade 5:
Time: 13:21
Sell 5 @ 85.71
Buy 5 @ 85.61
P&L w. commissions: 476.9
I just wrote my journal, finished trading, when I saw this beauty. Very streched, way out of the value area. At the time pulling the trigger I didn’t see the bears coming, but I thought it worths the risk. It did, and if I’m not so impatient, I could double on this one.


P&L for the day: 134.5
P&L for the month: -302.9
P&L from 09.24: -37.7



If you like my journal, please help me win the journal contest. All you have to do is push a ’Thanks’ on the #14 post (daddy) on this link:
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  #52 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

S/R zones review for 2014.10.13.


daddy View Post
Bias: slightly bearish

As I wrote at yesterday’s close, I was curious about overnight’s action. Well, the bulls tried to break yesterday’s open, but eventually the bears won, they broke the ONL, and even yesterday’s low.
So I’m bearish, but watching the bulls’ action, I think a correction may come.

… and a connection came
The day started with the bulls’ action, but first time they bounced off the 85.13-85.24 zone, then tried again, failed again. The bears managed to push back the price to the 84.36-84.75 zone, from where the bulls started their third attack on the 85.13-85.24 zone, and the fourth time they got through it.
The rally was stopped by the 85.69-85.9 zone, where the ONH and previous close was present. After a pullback, the bulls tried to get through it, but the close was under the ONH and prev. close.

The S/R areas served pretty well today:



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  #53 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

S/R zones for 2014.10.14.


Bias: slightly bearish

Overnight the crude was bouncing around yesterday’s zones, but it opens under prev. close.
I’m bearish under ONL and the 84.5-85.15 zone, but I couldn’t find zones under this area, so today if the bears will win, we can see some new zones developing, pulling down the acceptance area.
Other way, if the bulls can push through the 85.65-85.9 zone, with the ONH and prev. close, the next resistance is 86.58-86.72. Yesterday they couldn’t push through the same setup.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.58-86.72
85.65-85.9
84.5-85.15



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  #54 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

Trades for 2014.10.14

No trades today. The bears came, as expected, but it was slow and/or choppy for me. Made a promise myself that I’ll be more selective, I’ll only act when a trade begs me to pull the trigger.
This means less trades, so I have to fight the urge to trade.


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  #55 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

S/R zones review for 2014.10.14.


daddy View Post
Bias: slightly bearish

Overnight the crude was bouncing around yesterday’s zones, but it opens under prev. close.
I’m bearish under ONL and the 84.5-85.15 zone, but I couldn’t find zones under this area, so today if the bears will win, we can see some new zones developing, pulling down the acceptance area.
Other way, if the bulls can push through the 85.65-85.9 zone, with the ONH and prev. close, the next resistance is 86.58-86.72. Yesterday they couldn’t push through the same setup.

After the open, the price tried to break out of 84.5-85.15, above open, but the bears pulled back, quickly breaking the ONL below. The bulls tried to climb back to the zone, but at the VWAP they failed twice. From 12:00 the bears began to pull down, slowly, but steadily, didn’t look back till the close.



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  #56 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

S/R zones for 2014.10.15.

Bias: neutral

Now I’m getting cautious again: the crude stockpiles increased a lot according to the Bloomberg News survey, but the price is at the lowest level since June 2012.
So I won’t be surprised if the bulls came in for a small correction, or keeping the price going sideways till tommorow’s EIA report.
Under 80 I have no zones, so if the ONL is breaking down, anything can happen, but I’m betting on sideways/small green candle for the day. We’ll see.

The zones for today:

94.42-94.6
93.48-93.65
93.21-93.3
92.66-92.86
91.9-92.11
91.15-91.41
90.6-90.8
89.93-90.21
89.4-89.77
88.86-89.13
87.66-87.82
87.15-87.43
86.5-86.71
85.65-85.9
84.26-85.16
83.58-83.7
82.97-83.08
81.94-82.15
80.51-81.03
80.12-80.26



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  #57 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

missed...

Shoot, I just missed a dream setup, while writing the journal. My trading station didn't run, so I couldn't pull the trigger
Absoulte classic: way stretched, with a huge bearish volume imbalance on top.
Next time!

As the Stainless Steel Rat would say: "Turn my back and walk away, and live to graft another day!"


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  #58 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

Trades for 2014.10.15.

It was a great day, full of possibilities – of course I missed many, but also managed to pull a trigger on some good ones. I’d call it a perfect day for scalping, if the price wouldn’t chop around 6-8c, while moving in one direction.

Trade 1:
Time: 9:17
Sell 5 @ 81.75
Buy 5 @ 81.67
P&L w. commissions: 376.9
Nice setup. After a long strech, the bulls ran out of steam at the prev. close, and the price turned.

Trade 2:
Time: 9:29
Buy 5 @ 81.53
Sell 5 @ 81.54
P&L w. commissions: -73.1
My only long today. The bears’ power was decreasing, with a nice decreasing delta. The price broke upwards, but before reaching target, turned back suddenly, then reached the target. I used a trailing stop, which triggered, so it’s a near-scratch.

Trade 3:
Time: 9:59
Sell 5 @ 82.28
Buy 5 @ 82.20
P&L w. commissions: 376.9
Although it was profitable, I’m not really proud of this one. The strech and also the delta was choppy, but I „felt” something. It wasn’t a first class setup.

Trade 4:
Time: 10:12
Sell 5 @ 82.35
Buy 5 @ 82.4
P&L w. commissions: -273.1
Sooo annoying. I was right, but instead of breaking down, it chopped, then broke down, so I stopped out. It happens with a tight 5c

Trade 5:
Time: 10:38
Sell 5 @ 82.12
Buy 5 @ 82.03
P&L w. commissions: 426.9
Now this is an absolute beauty, the kind of first class setup, I’m looking for. Nice, undisturbed stretch, on top of an acceptance area, with decreasing delta. Loved it.

P&L for the day: 834.5
P&L for the month: 531.6
P&L from 09.24: 796.8



If you like my journal, please help me win the journal contest. All you have to do is push a ’Thanks’ on the #14 post (daddy) on this link:
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  #59 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

S/R zones review for 2014.10.15.


daddy View Post
Bias: neutral

Now I’m getting cautious again: the crude stockpiles increased a lot according to the Bloomberg News survey, but the price is at the lowest level since June 2012.
So I won’t be surprised if the bulls came in for a small correction, or keeping the price going sideways till tommorow’s EIA report.
Under 80 I have no zones, so if the ONL is breaking down, anything can happen, but I’m betting on sideways/small green candle for the day. We’ll see.

The day wasn’t a surprise, sideways it is
The bulls tried to take the lead in the beginning of the day, but the prev. close-81.94-82.15 zone-ONH combo stopped them, then this threesome worked all day as a widened acceptance area. The bulls tried to pierce it 4 times, without success.
The bears pulled the price twice to the 80.51-81.03 area, but couldn’t get below the open.

So the predefined zones worked like this:



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  #60 (permalink)
Budapest, Hungary
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: TopstepTrader
Trading: NQ, TF, YM
 
matevisky's Avatar
 
Posts: 469 since May 2013
Thanks: 633 given, 1,531 received



daddy View Post
The day wasn’t a surprise, sideways it is
So the predefined zones worked like this:
Attachment 161912

I am checking your zones over and over again, and I still dont understand why you are not trying to shoot for swings between zones. Here is a very easy to follow rule, it has to be backtested ofc, using your 5M bar:
- Entry rule: If the price arrive to the zone, and close in the zone, enter on the close of the first reversal bar (if it was a support zone, enter with the first green candle close)
- Stop loss: below the entry bar with 1-2 tick (not the zone low)
- Contract management: Manage the risk always by the size of the stop loss, and not by fix contract size!!!
- Profit Target1: low of the next zone, put StopLoss to breakeven
- Profit Target2: low of the next next zone, put StopLoss to the next zone low. Etc...

Some rules ofc has to be consider, to avoid chopping in the zone, but because of the 5M chart, it could be avoidable.

Also has to be considered to:
- Dont take trade if it is not turning in the zone
- Some rules, to enter trade if it is go over the zone (for example, on the retest...)

Etc...

Really. I was checking your zone, and these are very strong ones, and you are managing it and nail it down very well, and you are using a "stupid" scalping technic, with 5 lots... make still no sense for me

Máté
Full time traderLive journal here
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