Overnight the bulls made a nearly 1 point increase in the price, with an above-than-average volume spike at 7.30. Do they want to break out today?
On the daily chart, however, a triangle is forming again, and the downtrend is still valid.
It’s Friday, it supposed to be a quiet day, so my guess is sideways, or, if the bulls can break above ONH (78.82), the next area is 79.85-80.23, so they’re gonna stop around 80, I think.
Trade 1:
Time: 10:29
Sell 2 @ 78.78
Buy 2 @ 78.79 P&L w. commissions: -29.24
It looked pretty nice, and it was. Just below the ONH, the price touched .80 fourth time, so I was waiting for a breakdown. After my order triggered, the movement simply wasn’t what I imagined, so I scratched. After getting out, the target was reached – of course.
Trade 2:
Time: 12:14
Sell 2 @ 78.74
Buy 2 @ 78.79
P&L w. commissions: -109.24
I waited for a breakdown, based on huge imbalances, but the bulls were stronger, stopped out immediately.
P&L for the day: -138.48
P&L for the month: 153.8
P&L from 09.24: 2205.86
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Neutral it is, closed around the open.
The bulls did break out today, from the 78.35 area, at 9:35, just like at the 7:30 volume spike, but they couldn’t even make it to 80. Basically, sideways was all day around the ONH, and finally, the price came back to the 78.45-78.73 area to close there.
Same target zone, different reading (my target zone is calculated from presession range + fib extension...) You did the same math with your own analysis... I believe it makes sense
I was thinking about entering it the top of the 77.9-78.26 zone, too bad I didn’t
My next one, the 78.45-78.73 73 is misplaced on your printscreen, in reality it includes your „make sense for me” yellow zone, so for some reason our zones overlap So yes, it makes sense.
Cool. That zone if you see, is easy to spot anyway. That is the CL opening range the first 1 min movement after the floor open. It is important not only at the indexies but at crude also. At least based on my readings and not on my analyisis. Hopes it helps to be braver to hit the trigger... More hint to make sense, more hint to everyone else to think it could be a turn:P
Overnight the bulls made to the edge of the 79.85-80.3 zone, and began to form another zone below that (79.48-79.73).
This tells me, that around 80 there is a strong resistance, as it can be seen on the daily chart also.
I had some good trade ideas today, but didn’t pull the trigger. It was so tempting to short the fall, but I couldn’t get a clear shot, so I sat on my hands.
I think this is one of the hardest things as a trader: to see the price going into the predicted direction, while seeing how much I didn’t make today. The other hard thing is losing, of course, that’s what I wanted to avoid.
So I always wondering these times: was it fear or self-discipline?
@matevisky made me curious, how the acceptance zones work on YM, so I made the zones before open. I’ve never watched YM before, so unfortunately, I didn’t have data to the upside.
Still, it’s interesting how the price moved to the edges of the 17498-17528 zone, before breaking out.
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CL for today. Not the best clarity, but my trend targets working amazing. At least make sense. Once again. For me it is easier to analyze the historical data like this, than to put the zone's one by one all day all time. But if you have a strong understanding it is a down trend, than it is cool to see how it is works out
I was slightly bearish. Hmm. Bears ruled today, they pulled the price to new and new lows, continuously, breaking the zones easily (78.9-79.1), or after some sideways move (78.4-78.7) or after a small pullback (77.89-78.01).
Finally they stopped around the 77.5-77.76 zone, moved sideways for a while, till the close. It seems the trend might continue overnight.
How the predefined zones played out:
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Overnight the bears continued the good work, went down with a point compared to close, but the bulls pushed back to prev. close.
I’m still a bear, but I’m waiting for the ONL to be broken, otherwise I think it’s sideways between 76 and 80.
The acceptance zones unfortunately became pretty thick:
Sideways it was, mainly because of the low volume of the bank holiday.
Basically all day long the price stayed in the 76.95-77.8 zone. The bears one time tried to break from it, but only could make to the 76.5-76.8 zone, where the price turned, and went back to the giant zone.
How the zones played out:
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Overnight the price went sideways in the 77.1-78 zone, couldn’t climb above the close.
The inventories report is tomorrow, so probably the market will wait with sideways move. However, if the price can get below 75.84, the fall might continue.
A trader should know when to stand up from the table, for me today it’s now.
The day started with a bit of an „oh, sh*t” feeling: I wanted to go short before the open, but considered it too risky. Of course, no money for bunnies..
Well, this had an impact on my day for sure, all my real trades were a loser (and all my „fantasy” trades were winners of course).
Trade 1:
Time: 9:51
Sell 2 @ 77.29
Buy 2 @ 77.30 P&L w. commissions: -29.24
Looked pretty good, with a huge selling imbalance, but on POC, so it was a bit risky. After triggering, huge buying imbalances formed, so I scratched. Good decision.
Trade 2:
Time: 10:02
Sell 2 @ 77.51
Buy 2 @ 77.51
P&L w. commissions: -9.24
Decreasing bull delta, and a neutral candle on top of VolProf. Instead of falling like a rock, it began to chop, so scratched again. Of course if I had the balls to sit, it would reach the target. I made a disciplined decision instead of money.
Trade 3:
Time: 10:22
Sell 2 @ 77.69
Buy 2 @ 77.75
P&L w. commissions: -129.24
There was a big sell imbalance on the top of the VolProf, but this wasn’t a valid signal: it wasn’t steched at all. Shouldn’t take this trade. Mistake 2: I didn’t react on the first buying imbalance. Hit stop.
Trade 4:
Time: 11:25
Sell 2 @ 77.97
Buy 2 @ 77.97
P&L w. commissions: -9.24
Huge strech at a round number, with a sell imbalance on top. I was too slow for the move, so I chased: instead of taking the trade at 78.01, I took it at 77.97. I scratched at the first sign of the bulls. If I’d enter at the right price, this would be a winner. If I’d sit on my hands, this would be a winner. BUT in the trader’s life there are no ifs, and no shoulda-wouldas, but the end of the day.
P&L for the day: -176.96
P&L for the month: -23.16
P&L from 09.24: 2028.9
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I do feel you. It is always the hardest to fade the trend... It was clearly a trend, and it is always so much harder to bet on the trend, than to make a justification for a pullback
What I was waiting for yesterday, happened overnight, the bears pulled down the price 1 point.
The crude might break below 75.84 today, of course it all depends on the 11:00 crude inventories.
According to the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey, the crude inventories probably expanded by 1.1 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 7. If it’s more, we can see a hell of a drop.
Downward I don’t have any data, so if the price gets below the last zone, I’m gonna watch the newly forming zones (as always thorough the day).
I was waiting for this drop, so I prepared to short whatever good setup I’ll see.
This is how it played out:
Trade 1:
Time: 9:09
Sell 2 @ 75.98
Buy 2 @ 76.05 P&L w. commissions: -149.24
It looked good: below ONL and a round number, with 200-something size in the book, I could see it’ll trend down from here all day.. Unfortunately the bulls stepped in immediately, so I was stopped out, with a big slippage
The idea was good, though, 45 minutes later it broke down, and never looked back. I wasn’t in, couldn’t see a good setup.
Trade 2:
Time: 9:58
Sell 2 @ 75.78
Buy 2 @ 75.59
P&L w. commissions: 370.76
I know, I know, taking a short after a 50 tick straight drop, when everybody looks for a buy opportunity? But I simply couldn’t resist this one.
I mean, come on, 405,147,95 sell imbalance in a row? Yeah I want to take it, baby. The only reason I didn’t go with 5, was the long strech down, and the disappearance of bear delta.
But still, from this I wanted to take 20 ticks. It went easily 10 ticks, so I could take my usual target. Instead of this, I waited, and didn’t move my stop. It nearly stopped me out, then turned and took the target. Greedy get caught, but not this time!
Trade 3:
Time: 12:15
Sell 2 @ 75.28
Buy 2 @ 75.29
P&L w. commissions: -29.24
Nicely steched, with a big sell imbalance. Unfortunately, after it triggered, the bulls stepped in, with a nearly as big buy imbalance, so I scratched.
P&L for the day: 192.28
P&L for the month: 169.12
P&L from 09.24: 2221.18
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Yesterday the crude dropped, as anticipated Overnight the bears pulled the price to a new low, 73.25, but the bulls managed to get back above the previous close. The fall was big yesterday, but it seems the bulls came back, so I’m neutral today. Since it’s Friday, it might be a sideways/small correction today …. or not
Haven’t got the foggiest what happens today, but still a longer term bear.
…so it was a small correction.
According to how the zones played out, I can nearly hear @matevisky ’s voice: „Man, why don’t you trade your zones from zone to zone?”
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Bias: neutral Overnight the bears pulled back the price under Friday’s close with more than one point.
The price stayed mostly in the 74.85-75.4 zone. Under this, there’s the 74.25-74.44 as support, 76.08-76.35 as first resistance.
Trade 1:
Time: 9:49
Buy 2 @ 75.42
Sell 2 @ 75.36 P&L w. commissions: -139.24
So, this is what you get, when trading on „feelings”. I was waiting for a breakout from the edge of the zone, but I had no sign to rely on, no trigger according to my rules. Why did I enter, then? I have no idea... I was undisciplined, and payed the price.
After this bad trade, I wanted to enter short at 10:28, but my order didn’t go through, it was rejected by the platform! Of course it would be the winner of the day…
P&L for the day: -139.24
P&L for the month: 29.88
P&L from 09.24: 2081.94
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Overnight the bulls showed some strenght, but the 76.09-76.35 zone stopped them (), and the bears pulled back, nullified the overnight gain.
Under the 74.97-75.43 zone I’m looking for shorts, the next support is 74.25-74.44
Unfortunately I hit my max daily loss, so the day’s over for today. I have to get up from the table, according to my rules.
Trade 1:
Time: 9:26
Buy 1 @ 75.05
Sell 1 @ 75.03 P&L w. commissions: -24.64
An absolute unusual one: I’d enter on the long side, with 1 contract, and 10 tick SL, waiting for 30 ticks. The price turned at the ONL, and the first sell imbalance came, and I was looking for shorts anyways, so I headed for the exit. Glad I did.
Trade 2:
Time: 9:52
Buy 2 @ 74.82
Sell 2 @ 74.76
P&L w. commissions: -129,24
I know, I know. Why long? Because I’ve never seen this big buy imbalance before: 505! And also at the new POC.. Anyways, the bears absorbed th whole stuff, after my order triggered.
Trade 3:
Time: 9:57
Sell 2 @ 74.69
Buy 2 @ 74.76
P&L w. commissions: -149.24
My first (and last) short: I was waiting for a breakdown, it didn’t happen. Hit stop with big slippage.
P&L for the day: -303.12
P&L for the month: -273.24
P&L from 09.24: 1778.82
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Here is the picture what we have been speaking about yesterday. Watch and see how powerful is this system, if you are interested, please let me know, and you can join to my room every day after the market moves I will show you how to read the chart from left to right with clarity and ease
(Just kidding... do not take it seriously guys Daddy is a good friend of mine... we don't have holy grail system - yet, and we do not have a room, yet2 )
So yesterday was ruled by the bears. After the price went lower than the 74.97-75.43 zone, it came back to the ONL, just to head down again. The bears were stopped at the next support, 74.25-74.44.
This is how the zones played out:
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Trade 1:
Time: 9:07
Sell 1 @ 75.01
Buy 1 @ 74.88 P&L w. commissions: 125.38
The second touch of the ONH, after a small strech. I entered with one contract, experimenting with something new..
Trade 2:
Time: 10:45
Sell 2 @ 74.24
Buy 2 @ 74.29
P&L w. commissions: -109.24
I shorted a small strech, didn’t work out.
Trade 3:
Time: 11:42
Sell 1 @ 75.01
Buy 1 @ 75.18
P&L w. commissions: -174.62
The very same setup like in trade 1. Unfortunately this time it didn’t work, and I had to suffer a huge slippage as well.
Trade 4:
Time: 11:45
Sell 2 @ 75.18
Buy 2 @ 75.18
P&L w. commissions: -9.24
Strech and bearish imbalance. This time the greedy got caught, I could exit at my usual 10 tick, but I wanted 20. It didn’t come, so I scratched.
Trade 5:
Time: 11:56
Sell 2 @ 75.21
Buy 2 @ 75.12
P&L w. commissions: 170.76
Same idea as in trade 4. I wanted 20 ticks again, but it only gave me 10. With the exit I should have played breakout above 75.10, but as I always say, it's easy to read the left side of the chart...
P&L for the day: 3
P&L for the month: -270.2
P&L from 09.24: 1781.86
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I am not saying it is always clear, could take a lots of false signal, but hey, as a starter you can make your day!
T440 big timeframe overview:
Before report move
After report move
The crude is still in a downtrend, one can see downward pressure long term.
The bottom two zones are so close to each other, that the price either breaks out from them, or moving sideways.
Trade 1:
Time: 10:19
Buy 2 @ 75.27
Sell 2 @ 75.25 P&L w. commissions: -49.24
I was expecting a breakout, because of huge buy imbalances on top, which was absorbed by the sellers. I was waiting for the bears to give up. They did, and the price runned nearly 30 ticks – without me, because I closed the position. Why? Above the absorption level the price stopped, and I could almost hear the crickets playing, so I headed for the exit.
Trade 2:
Time: 10:21
Sell 2 @ 75.35
Buy 2 @ 75.42
P&L w. commissions: -149.24
An absulute no-go, shouldn’t waste the time to write about it. Mixed signals, but I guess my subconscious mind wanted to trade after trade 1’s missed opportunity. Too bad.
Trade 3:
Time: 10:33
Sell 1 @ 75.42
Buy 1 @ 75.16
P&L w. commissions: 255.38
I just went with 1 contract, because I couldn’t see a clear sign, it was chopping. It was streched, though, and at the edge of my zone, which I did trust to hold. I was so inspired by @matevisky, that I holded the position for 20 minutes, personal best of this year!
Trade 4:
Time: 10:55
Sell 2 @ 75.16
Buy 2 @ 75.06
P&L w. commissions: 190.76
Now this beauty is rare, and is my favourite. Streched with decreasing delta, and, as a cherry on the cake, there sat a huge buy imbalance on top, which didn’t trigger a further move up.
P&L for the day: 247.6
P&L for the month: -22.54
P&L from 09.24: 2029.52
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The price broke up from yesterday’s two bottom zones (see previous S/R zones), and the bulls continued to march overnight.
However, 78 is an important resistance here, and it’s Friday, so I expect sideways or bearish move.
The lesson from Friday’s trades: never experiment on something on your account. One should take trades after having a sound and backtested trading method. Obvious isn’t it?
Trade 1:
Time: 10:19
Buy 2 @ 75.27
Sell 2 @ 75.25 P&L w. commissions: -24.64
Now this is a classic 1 tick-miss trade, I still can’t believe it. After a good strech, I decided to let it go down, instead of taking my usual 10 tick target, I put a take profit to 76.35. I entered with 1 contract, since I used 10 tick stop instead of my usual 5.
So, entered short at 76.68. I tried to resist to pull the stop to entry, so I waited. But it didn’t go down, so finally I tried to scratch.
After that, the price came up, but it turned 1 tick before my previous stop, and headed down again, right to my previous profit target, where it turned up 1 tick before it, so the target wasn’t reached. (then, 16 minutes later, it was)
Overnight the price mainly went sideways. There was an attempt by the bulls to push higher, but the bears pulled back. A big zone formed at 75.65-76.5.
The big question is, which way now, above ONH or below ONL? I’m with the bears now.
The world – at least the oil-producing part of it - is getting fed up with the current low prices. „…current levels are unacceptable, Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said yesterday.”
Everybody’s waiting Thursday’s OPEC meeting, where the members might agree on a production ceiling cut. The big question is how much will it be? This will surely set the direction…
The tale of how I didn’t make 2 grand today from one contract.Un-f*ckin-believable.
Trade 1:
Time: 09:32
Sell 1 @ 76.48
Buy 1 @ 76.58 P&L w. commissions: -104.62
Although in the first 40 minutes the price rallied upwards, I was damn certain today’s short bias. I didn’t count on this fall, though, I was „slightly bearish”.
I shorted at 76.48, planning to hold it till it goes back to the open, then I’ll see. After entered, it took my stop, exactly turning on it, then heading down. I played the would be trade: I’d exit at 74.56.
Now, in the next days, I have to be extremely careful, because of the past.
My first really big losing streak was triggered by the LNKD IPO, where I had a long position w 200 shares. After I pulled my stop to BE, and stopped out, it rallied up. I could make around 5 grand… Next day I wanted my money „back”, and I began to risk more and lose big.
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So, yesterday was an interesting day, with a big drop. There were two good short opportunities, one at the ONH andf the edge of the 75.65-76.5 zone, and another, after a correction at the edge of the 74.9-75.26 zone.
I was in the first one, but stopped out before the big fall, and I missed the second one, because I was so disappointed, that I stopped trading.
I thought a lot about yesterday, and I think I can reject the temptation to „win back” yesterday’s 2 grand, which I missed. I’m definitely smarter – or I like to think I am – than at the time of the LNKD IPO.
Because, let’s face it: if I’d won yesterday, it would be dumb luck, nothing else. If I had the 2 grand on my account, I’d swap that in no time for a 100 bucks/day consistency. Because this is, what matters.
And one more thing: I missed 2 grand, while I was fantasy trading with no real position. Would I hold a real position till the bottom? Probably not..
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My heart says short, but the price is in a territory, where it haven’t been for a long time.
It’s inventories at 10:30, before holidays, and an OPEC meeting tomorrow, so I’ll be cautious all day.
Trade 1:
Time: 12:39
Sell 2 @ 73.89
Buy 2 @ 73.94 P&L w. commissions: -119.24
At 73.9 I saw some big players around 11:20, then the price bounced back from it again at 11:35, so I gave it a shot for breaking down 10c. It didn’t work out.
P&L for the day: -119.24
P&L for the month: -569.5
P&L from 09.24: 1482.56
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Wow! This was huge. Luckily, I didn’t sell that put option I examined Wednesday.. I’d be toast, but who knew? I thought the OPEC guys will cut production, because this drop hurts so bad for the oil lobby, that something must be done.
Well, they didn’t cut, so check out the new 5 year low!
Of course I examined some options for this.. Well, puts are dirt cheap, so it doesn’t worth selling, what I was thinking about. I wouldn’t say it’s gonna go straight up, so no call buying for me. As the calls are so expensive, I wouldn’t touch verticals.
…so no trades, because I haven’t got the slightest about probability.
Also no day trades today, I’m waiting for the dust to settle. Of course, somebody’ll make a killing on this, but I think you have to be a saudi prince to see an opportunity with more than 50% probability here.
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There was a small correction today, but overnight the bears pulled the price back a little.
I’ll monitor closely the ONL and ONH, to get a hint of today’s direction.
Overnight the bears pulled back the price nearly to yesterday’s low, so below the ONL, I’m bearish. However, it’s inventories at 10:30, so this is what will set the further direction. According to API, the inventories shrank.. We’ll see.
Overnight the price went sideways, but the bears showed a little more strenght.
We have two zones between the ONH and ONL, but basically it’t one giant zone. I’d like to see the price breaking down from here, through the ONL.
It was clearly a trend, and it is always so much harder to bet on the trend, than to make a justification for a 
The only reason I didn’t go with 5, was the long strech down, and the disappearance of bear 
Why? Above the 
but who knew? I thought the 
