Bias for the day: slightly bearish
Yesterday the crude tested the 93.3 two times, failing. Overnight was a third test, failing again.
If the bulls can push through 93.3 and then the 93.38-93.51 area, the way is free to 94.
Otherwise, if the bears come in they have to break through 3 support levels, and then the 92.22 ONL, then the next stop is the very wide 91.26-91.75 area. So the bears have to work harder… but I'm on their side
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I try to keep the promise to myself that I only pull the trigger on premium trades.
Today I couldn’t see any real good ones, the ones I examined would give mixed results, I would be about even.
Of course anything can happen the second half of the day, but I’ll stay out, since it’s Friday, and right now it’s painfully slow for me.
The crude went sideways int he first half of the day. By 9:45, the bears could push down to the second support area, but couldn’t break through. By 10:40 the bulls pushed the price fourth times to 93.3, but couldn’t get through either.
The fifth time around 13:10 was successful, the bulls managed to push throuh to 93.86, but eventually lost power and came back below 93.3.
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Right now the crude are just at the levels of the monthly resistance, so today may be choppy.
If the bulls can push through th ONH, the way is free to 94.
Otherwise, if the bears can move the crude below the ONL, the next support is the 92.2-92.3 area.
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It was a very bad day, I just lost the trading game mentally. The positive thing I also learned a lot
First, what did I do wrong:
- I wrote before, that I think it’s gonna be a choppy day. Well, I „forgot” what I saw int he market before the open, so I wasn’t cautious enough.
- Trades 4,5,6 are just were not justified, I have to stick to my usual setups.
What I learned:
- I’ll try to do my setups with trailing stops, be more agressive on trade management. Of course it has disadvantages, maybe I’m stopped out, then it goes my way. I think it’s worth experimenting.
- I definitely overtraded after the losses. Rule from now: after two losing trades, I take a 10 minute break, away from the screens.
Trade 1:
Time: 9:36
Sell 5 @ 93.3
Buy 5 @ 93.36 P&L w. commissions: -323.2
I think the trade idea was good. The crude was streched, and there was a volume imbalance as well. The delta was choppy, though.
Trade 2:
Time: 9:38
Sell 5 @ 93.29
Buy 5 @ 93.32
P&L w. commissions: -173.2
I was still fond of the idea that it’s gonna go down. Instead of breaking down, it went sideways.
It was a losing trade, but I saw the delta decreasing, so I narrowed the stop, which was a good move, so I lost less.
Trade 3:
Time: 10:06
Sell 5 @ 93.53
Buy 2 @ 93.47
Buy 3 @ 93.53
P&L w. commissions: 96.8
It was a good trade, I got the first goal, after that it turned.
Trade 4:
Time: 10:22
Buy 5 @ 93.56
Sell 5 @ 93.51
P&L w. commissions: -273.2
It wasn’t my usual setup, I usually don’t play breakouts. In the future, if I play this, I have to use trailing stops, since most breakouts fail. With a trailing stop the loss would be around 70.
Trade 5:
Time: 10:39
Sell 5 @ 93.62
Buy 5 @ 93.63
P&L w. commissions: -73.2
I shouldn’t have taken this trade, it didn’t meet my requirements: the ONH and prev. close was too close, so it became choppy in this area. I tried to scratch.
Trade 6:
Time: 11:01
Buy 5 @ 93.71
Sell 5 @ 93.66
P&L w. commissions: -293.2
I tried a breakout again, too bad.
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Well, the bulls won, after chopping around the ONH and prev. close, they pushed it through to the 93.9-94.05 area, then to the next resistance area to 94.61-94.9.
The predefined areas served well:
Overnight the crude mainly moved in the 94.4-94.76 area. It’s just above the levels of the monthly resistance, but I think it will go back below 93 this week.
I don’t think the bulls can push through the ONH, or not much – its the end of the VolProf (all) there. If they do, it can go a long way…
Otherwise, if the bears can move the crude below the ONL, the next support is the 93.9-94.03 area.
So the areas are:
90.75-90.91
91.3-91.76
92.25-92.4
92.71-93.3
93.5-93.63
93.9-94.03
94.4-94.76
95.73-95.93
Because the trading mistakes of yesterday, I altered my trading method. Till yesterday my profit target was 20 ticks, with scaling out on the way, and leave 1 contract in to run, if it wants
Today I was more agressive, I used trailing stops instead of fix ones, and planned all out at 10 ticks.
Also managed to pull the trigger on the real good ones, I just waited till the trade shouted in my face: NOW!
I didn’t want to stay in the market after the 11:25 selling frenzy. Personally, I prefer stay out of the elevator when a 900 pound gorilla is in.
Trade 1:
Time: 9:30
Buy 5 @ 94.13
Sell 5 @ 94.23 P&L w. commissions: 476.8
Although I wanted to trade in the short side, I found the crude way too streched. The idea was to get a quick profit on the correction, and it was successful.
Trade 2:
Time: 9:51
Sell 5 @ 93.99
Buy 5 @ 93.89
P&L w. commissions: 476.8
This is the kind of a setup I usually look for: after a long strech to 94 the buying activity decreased, and one could see a paw of a bear. I also aimed for 10 ticks. The target could be more, but of course everybody can read the left side of the chart perfectly
P&L for the day: 953.6
P&L from 09.24: 265.2
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