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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile


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Updated December 4th 2014 by daddy
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daddy's CL trading w. volume profile

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  #141 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

Trades for 2014.11.25

The tale of how I didn’t make 2 grand today from one contract. Un-f*ckin-believable.

Trade 1:
Time: 09:32
Sell 1 @ 76.48
Buy 1 @ 76.58
P&L w. commissions: -104.62
Although in the first 40 minutes the price rallied upwards, I was damn certain today’s short bias. I didn’t count on this fall, though, I was „slightly bearish”.
I shorted at 76.48, planning to hold it till it goes back to the open, then I’ll see. After entered, it took my stop, exactly turning on it, then heading down. I played the would be trade: I’d exit at 74.56.

Now, in the next days, I have to be extremely careful, because of the past.
My first really big losing streak was triggered by the LNKD IPO, where I had a long position w 200 shares. After I pulled my stop to BE, and stopped out, it rallied up. I could make around 5 grand… Next day I wanted my money „back”, and I began to risk more and lose big.

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  #142 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

2014.11.25 review


daddy View Post
Bias: slightly bearish

Overnight the price mainly went sideways. There was an attempt by the bulls to push higher, but the bears pulled back. A big zone formed at 75.65-76.5.
The big question is, which way now, above ONH or below ONL? I’m with the bears now.

The world – at least the oil-producing part of it - is getting fed up with the current low prices. „…current levels are unacceptable, Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said yesterday.”
Everybody’s waiting Thursday’s OPEC meeting, where the members might agree on a production ceiling cut. The big question is how much will it be? This will surely set the direction…

The zones for today:

80.9-81.42
80.5-80.65
79.2-79.7
78.38-78.6
77.61-77.75
77-77.35
75.65-76.5
74.9-75.26
74.5-74.75

So, yesterday was an interesting day, with a big drop. There were two good short opportunities, one at the ONH andf the edge of the 75.65-76.5 zone, and another, after a correction at the edge of the 74.9-75.26 zone.
I was in the first one, but stopped out before the big fall, and I missed the second one, because I was so disappointed, that I stopped trading.

I thought a lot about yesterday, and I think I can reject the temptation to „win back” yesterday’s 2 grand, which I missed. I’m definitely smarter – or I like to think I am – than at the time of the LNKD IPO.
Because, let’s face it: if I’d won yesterday, it would be dumb luck, nothing else. If I had the 2 grand on my account, I’d swap that in no time for a 100 bucks/day consistency. Because this is, what matters.
And one more thing: I missed 2 grand, while I was fantasy trading with no real position. Would I hold a real position till the bottom? Probably not..


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  #143 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

S/R zones for 2014.11.26


Bias: neutral

My heart says short, but the price is in a territory, where it haven’t been for a long time.
It’s inventories at 10:30, before holidays, and an OPEC meeting tomorrow, so I’ll be cautious all day.

The zones:

80.9-81.42
80.5-80.65
79.2-79.7
78.38-78.6
77.61-77.75
77-77.35
75.65-76.5
74.9-75.26
74.5-74.75
73.8-74.2
73.41-73.57

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  #144 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

Trades for 2014.11.26

Trade 1:
Time: 12:39
Sell 2 @ 73.89
Buy 2 @ 73.94
P&L w. commissions: -119.24
At 73.9 I saw some big players around 11:20, then the price bounced back from it again at 11:35, so I gave it a shot for breaking down 10c. It didn’t work out.

P&L for the day: -119.24
P&L for the month: -569.5
P&L from 09.24: 1482.56

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  #145 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

The big drop

Wow! This was huge. Luckily, I didn’t sell that put option I examined Wednesday.. I’d be toast, but who knew? I thought the OPEC guys will cut production, because this drop hurts so bad for the oil lobby, that something must be done.
Well, they didn’t cut, so check out the new 5 year low!

Of course I examined some options for this.. Well, puts are dirt cheap, so it doesn’t worth selling, what I was thinking about. I wouldn’t say it’s gonna go straight up, so no call buying for me. As the calls are so expensive, I wouldn’t touch verticals.
…so no trades, because I haven’t got the slightest about probability.
Also no day trades today, I’m waiting for the dust to settle. Of course, somebody’ll make a killing on this, but I think you have to be a saudi prince to see an opportunity with more than 50% probability here.

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  #146 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

S/R zones for 2014.12.02

Bias: neutral

There was a small correction today, but overnight the bears pulled the price back a little.
I’ll monitor closely the ONL and ONH, to get a hint of today’s direction.

The zones for today:

77.61-77.75
75.65-76.7
74.35-75.21
73.54-74.11
72.12-72.4
71.2-71.51
70.88-71
70.2-70.5
69.21-69.5
68.3-69
67.88-68.1
67.10-67.5
66-66.6
65.5-65.6
64.3-64.85

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  #147 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

S/R zones for 2014.12.03

Bias: slightly bearish

Overnight the bears pulled back the price nearly to yesterday’s low, so below the ONL, I’m bearish. However, it’s inventories at 10:30, so this is what will set the further direction. According to API, the inventories shrank.. We’ll see.

The zones for today:


77.61-77.75
75.65-76.7
74.35-75.21
73.54-74.11
72.12-72.4
71.2-71.51
70.88-71
70.2-70.5
69.21-69.5
67.86-68.63
67.06-67.6
66-66.5
65.47-65.65
64.3-64.85

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  #148 (permalink)
Budapest+Hungary
 
 
Posts: 151 since Aug 2014
Thanks: 139 given, 204 received

S/R zones for 2014.12.04

Bias: slightly bearish

Overnight the price went sideways, but the bears showed a little more strenght.
We have two zones between the ONH and ONL, but basically it’t one giant zone. I’d like to see the price breaking down from here, through the ONL.

The zones for today:

72.12-72.4
71.2-71.51
70.88-71
70.2-70.5
69.21-69.5
67.6-68.3
66.83-67.4
66-66.5
65.47-65.65
64.3-64.85

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